Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Aluminum, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil [1] - Bearish: Coke, Coking Coal, BR Rubber [1] - Neutral: Gold, Silver, Copper, Alumina, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferro - Silicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Cotton, Pulp, Crude Oil, Asphalt, Shanghai Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Pure Benzene, Styrene, PP, PVC, Aluminum Oxide, LPG, Container Shipping European Line [1] Core Views - Geopolitical conflicts are intensifying, and options tools can be used to hedge uncertainties [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward trend [1] - The situation has slightly eased, and the gold price may return to a volatile state in the short term; the long - term upward logic remains solid [1] - The market should pay attention to tariff - related developments and domestic and foreign economic data changes due to the repeated market sentiment affected by the Middle East geopolitical risks and the resilience of China's May economic data [1] Summaries by Industry Categories Macro - finance - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term central bank warnings on interest - rate risks suppress the upward movement [1] Non - ferrous metals - Copper: Market risk appetite has declined, downstream demand has entered the off - season, and there is a risk of price correction after the copper price has risen [1] - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory has continued to decline, and the risk of a short squeeze still exists, with the aluminum price remaining strong; alumina spot price is relatively stable, while the futures price is weak, and the futures discount is obvious [1] - Nickel: The Middle East geopolitical risk persists, and the domestic May economic data shows resilience. The nickel price is in a short - term weak shock, and there is still pressure from the long - term surplus of primary nickel [1] - Stainless steel: The price of nickel iron has fallen, steel mill price limits are fluctuating, spot sales are weak, and social inventory has slightly increased. The short - term futures price is in a weak shock, and there is still long - term supply pressure [1] - Tin: The supply contradiction of tin ore has intensified in the short term, and the increase in Wa State's tin ore production still takes time, so the short - term tin price is in a high - level shock [1] Energy and chemicals - Crude oil: Geopolitical tensions are easing, and the price has fallen. The chemical industry as a whole has followed the decline in the crude oil price [1] - PTA: The spot basis remains strong, PXN is expected to be compressed due to the delay of Northeast PX device maintenance and market rumors of the postponement of Zhejiang reforming device maintenance [1] - Ethylene Glycol: It continues to reduce inventory, and the arrival volume will decrease. Polyester production cuts have an impact on the market [1] - Short fiber: In the case of a high basis, the cost is closely related to the price. Short - fiber factories have started maintenance plans [1] - Pure benzene and styrene: The price of pure benzene has started to weaken, the load of styrene devices has increased, and the basis has also weakened [1] - PP: The price is in a volatile and slightly downward trend, with limited support from maintenance [1] - PVC: After the end of maintenance and the commissioning of new devices, the downstream enters the seasonal off - season, and the supply pressure increases [1] - Alumina: The electricity price has dropped, and non - aluminum demand is weaker than last year. The market is trading the price - cut expectation in advance [1] - LPG: Geopolitical sentiment has eased, and the price premium is expected to be repaired [1] Agricultural products - Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil: The US biodiesel RVO quota proposal exceeds market expectations, which may tighten the global oil supply - demand situation, and they are considered bullish in the short term [1] - Cotton: There are short - term disturbances in US cotton, and the long - term macro uncertainty is strong. The domestic cotton price is expected to be in a weak shock [1] - Sugar: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high, but the oil price may affect the sugar production through the sugar - alcohol ratio [1] - Corn: The overall supply - demand situation in the corn year is tight, and the short - term price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Bean粕: Before the release of the USDA planting area report at the end of the month, the futures price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Pulp: The current demand is light, but the downward space is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] - Hog: The inventory is being repaired, the slaughter weight is increasing, and the futures price is relatively stable [1] Others - Container Shipping European Line: There is a situation of strong expectation and weak reality. The peak - season contracts can be lightly tested for long positions, and attention should be paid to arbitrage opportunities [1]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index is constrained by the March high of 24,874 points, with expectations of new financial policies from mainland China to stabilize the market, including reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions [2] - The recent US-China trade negotiations have led to a temporary reduction in tariffs, with the US reducing tariffs on Chinese imports from 145% to 30%, and China reducing tariffs on US imports from 125% to 10% for a 90-day period [2] - The Hang Seng Index's valuation has returned to a reasonable level, requiring significant positive developments in trade agreements and corporate earnings improvements to maintain upward momentum [2] Sector Focus - The focus is on US retail sales and Hong Kong's unemployment rate for May [3] - Chinese financial stocks are expected to perform well as mainland companies accelerate listings in Hong Kong [7] - Gold mining stocks are gaining attention due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and central banks increasing gold reserves [7] Economic Indicators - China's May retail sales exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year growth of 6.4%, while industrial output and fixed asset investment fell short of expectations [9] - The average urban unemployment rate in China for May was reported at 5.0%, a slight decrease from the previous month [9] - The first five months of 2025 saw a 3.8% year-on-year decline in new residential property sales in China [9] Corporate News - Companies such as Cao Cao Travel are initiating IPOs, aiming to raise up to 1.85 billion yuan [7] - Haidilao is reportedly setting a price limit for its shares, while other companies are planning to list in Hong Kong [7] - The Hong Kong International Airport reported a 20% increase in passenger traffic in May, driven by a rise in transit and inbound travelers [10]

日美首脑简短会晤 贸易谈判进展未明 金十数据6月17日讯，据日本政府称，美国总统特朗普和日本首相石破茂周一在七国集团峰会间隙进行 了30分钟的会谈。日本政府没有详细说明双方讨论了什么，也没有说明两位领导人是否在贸易谈判上取 得了任何进展。后者是目前日本的一个关键优先事项，日本正在寻求全面取消特朗普征收的关税，包括 对关键的汽车工业出口征收25%的关税。石破茂正试图在加拿大阿尔伯塔省与特朗普达成贸易协议。空 手而归将给日本经济带来不确定性，并给下个月的大选前首相的政治前景蒙上阴影。如果没有达成协 议，随着日本与通胀作斗争，关税可能会使该国陷入技术性衰退。 ...

欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩：欧盟全力参与与美国的贸易谈判。 ...

Market Overview - The market returned to a volatile range from June 9-13, with the Wind All A closing at 5142.43, down 0.27% from June 6, while the China Convertible Bond Index fell 0.02%[8] - Since the beginning of 2025, the Wind All A has increased by 2.40%, and the China Convertible Bond Index has risen by 4.65%[8] External Factors - The second round of China-US trade talks and escalating Middle East tensions were key trading cues, leading to increased market volatility[2] - The US CPI data indicated limited impact from tariffs on prices, supporting expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, while geopolitical conflicts pushed oil prices higher[2][36] Strategy Insights - Following the second round of trade talks, market adjustment pressures stem from external uncertainties, particularly from the Middle East and potential changes in US tariff policies[3] - Historical data shows that after significant geopolitical conflicts, the Wind All A typically experiences a recovery around 14 trading days later, with technology and dividend sectors showing notable excess returns[3][39] Market Dynamics - The congestion level of the China 2000 index has decreased significantly, currently at the 79.3 percentile since September 2023, indicating improved structural issues in the small-cap market[16] - Investors are favoring industries with lower congestion levels while avoiding those with higher congestion, maintaining a "rotation thinking" approach in trading strategies[19][20] Convertible Bond Valuation - Convertible bond valuations have generally declined, particularly for crowded debt-type products, with the valuation center for 80 yuan parity dropping to 46.85%[23] - The valuation for 100 yuan parity has decreased to 26.37%, reflecting a broader trend of valuation adjustments in the convertible bond market[23][29]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the positive communication between the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, and U.S. President Donald Trump regarding geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and their impact on energy markets [1] - Discussion included the necessity of coordinating closely on the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and its implications for energy markets [1] - The conversation also covered the situation in Ukraine, emphasizing the need for a ceasefire and continued pressure on Russia [1] - Trade negotiations were assessed, with a commitment to reach a good agreement by July 9 [1]

金十数据6月13日讯，根据贸易谈判部门的说法，随着特朗普自行设定的7月9日最后期限的临近，泰国 与美国的线上关税谈判可能会几乎在同一天进行。泰国贸易谈判部总干事Chotima Iemsawasdikul 在一次 简报会上说，泰国的目标是在华盛顿设定的宽限期结束之前完成与美国的贸易谈判。Chotima说，尽管 具体日期尚未确定，但与美国的贸易谈判的准备工作正在进行中。 美泰关税谈判或在线上举行 ...

韩国称，将加快与美国的工作层面贸易谈判，贸易政策将保护国家利益。 ...

Market Overview - The New York stock market showed improvement in market sentiment due to the digestion of tariff negotiation information and the Producer Price Index (PPI) data, leading to a rise in all three major indices on June 12 [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 101.85 points to close at 42,967.62, a gain of 0.24%; the S&P 500 rose by 23.02 points to 6,045.26, a gain of 0.38%; and the Nasdaq Composite gained 46.61 points to close at 19,662.49, also a gain of 0.24% [1] Sector Performance - Among the eleven sectors of the S&P 500, eight sectors rose while three declined. The Utilities and Technology sectors led the gains with increases of 1.26% and 1.01%, respectively, while the Communication Services and Consumer Discretionary sectors saw declines of 0.59% and 0.41% [1] Economic Indicators - The U.S. Labor Department reported that the Producer Price Index for May increased by 0.1% month-over-month, below the market expectation of 0.2%. The April figure was revised from -0.5% to -0.2% [1] - Year-over-year, the PPI for May rose by 2.6%, meeting market expectations and higher than April's 2.4%. The core PPI, excluding food and energy, also increased by 0.1% month-over-month, below the expected 0.3% [1] Company-Specific News - Oracle Corporation reported revenues of $15.9 billion for the quarter ending May 31, exceeding market expectations of $15.59 billion, with adjusted earnings per share of $1.70, above the anticipated $1.64. Oracle's stock surged by 13.31% on June 12, positively impacting related companies [3] - Boeing's stock fell by 4.79% following a significant accident involving an Air India Boeing 787 aircraft that resulted in major casualties [3]

美国财长贝森特：欧盟在贸易谈判中表现得非常顽固。 ...