美国财长贝森特：部分贸易谈判起步较为缓慢。 ...

Group 1 - The latest silver futures closing price was 9184 yuan per kilogram, with a daily increase of 0.52% and a trading volume of 735,125 contracts [1] - The Shanghai silver spot price was quoted at 9146 yuan per kilogram, showing a discount of 79 yuan per kilogram compared to the futures main price [1] - The U.S. Department of Commerce initiated two import investigations related to drone systems and polysilicon, which may lead to tariffs if deemed a national security threat [1] Group 2 - Guotou Futures reported that precious metals experienced volatility due to the announcement of high U.S. tariff rates, with the EU preparing to impose additional tariffs on $72 billion worth of U.S. imports if trade negotiations fail [2] - The market remains uncertain, and risk sentiment may fluctuate, leading to continued volatility in precious metals [2] - Attention is on the upcoming U.S. CPI data, which could impact market movements [2]

Core Viewpoint - The European Union (EU) has prepared a second list of retaliatory tariffs against the United States, potentially affecting $84 billion worth of American imports, amid significant trade negotiation tensions between the two parties [1][3]. Summary by Sections EU's Retaliatory Measures - The EU has identified a second list of retaliatory tariffs targeting $84 billion worth of U.S. imports, including Boeing aircraft, automobiles, and bourbon whiskey [1][5]. - The initial list aimed at $95 billion worth of U.S. goods was reduced after consultations with businesses and EU member states [1][5]. - The EU's response is a direct reaction to U.S. President Trump's threat to impose a 30% tariff on EU goods, which has created a significant divide in trade negotiations [3][4]. Negotiation Dynamics - The EU's trade commissioner, Valdis Dombrovskis, indicated that while there is a close agreement on the trade agreement text, substantial differences remain in certain areas [3][4]. - Trump's strategy of increasing tariffs is seen as a way to gain leverage in negotiations, although it has shocked EU officials [3][4]. Impact on Trade Relations - The proposed 30% tariff would drastically alter the transatlantic trade relationship, making it nearly impossible to maintain the current trade dynamics [3][4]. - Experts believe that the EU's acceptance of a 10% tariff as a baseline was already a significant concession, and the 30% threat is unacceptable [4][8]. Composition of the Retaliatory List - The retaliatory list includes over €65 billion worth of industrial goods, with significant items being aircraft (€11 billion), machinery (€9.4 billion), and automobiles (€8 billion) [8]. - Agricultural products affected exceed €6 billion, primarily fruits and vegetables (€2 billion) and alcoholic beverages (€1.2 billion) [8]. Broader Trade Strategy - The EU is considering all possible measures to protect its economy, including potential actions against the U.S. service sector and the use of coercive measures [8][9]. - The EU is also looking to strengthen trade relations with like-minded partners and is interested in enhancing cooperation with CPTPP members [9][10].

Group 1 - The Shanghai gold futures closed at 780.40 yuan per gram on July 15, with a daily increase of 0.25% and a trading volume of 216,294 lots [1] - The spot price of gold in Shanghai was quoted at 774.80 yuan per gram, indicating a discount of 8.6 yuan per gram compared to the futures price [1] - President Trump threatened to impose high tariffs on more countries, while investors expect these tariffs to be reduced through negotiations [1] Group 2 - Trump urged Russia to reach a ceasefire agreement, or else face a 100% secondary tariff [2] - The U.S. is open to trade negotiations with various countries, including Europe, regarding tariff issues [2] - The London silver spot price reached over $39 per ounce, marking a new high in over a decade [2]

欧盟贸易部长们一致表示，仍希望在截止日期前与美国达成协议以避免破坏性关税，但同时也做好了报复准备。主持会议的欧盟轮值主席国丹麦 外交大臣拉斯穆森称，美国的关税威胁"绝对不可接受"，"我们希望达成公平协议，但若遭遇不公平关税，就应做好反制准备"。法国贸易部长洛 朗·圣 - 马丁认为制定报复计划应"没有禁忌"，周末的挫折要求欧盟重新考虑策略。 在与部长们会晤前，谢夫乔维奇警告，若特朗普真征收30%关税，美欧贸易将"几乎不可能"，实际就是禁止贸易。事实上，欧盟已准备了一份涉 及价值210亿欧元美国进口商品的单独清单，旨在回应特朗普对钢铁和铝征收的关税。欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩13日宣布，将把这些反制措施推迟 至8月初实施，且欧盟倾向于与美国协商解决问题的立场不变。（陈十一） 此前，特朗普宣称若8月1日前未能达成协议，将对欧盟商品征收30%关税，这一税率明显高于其4月公布的针对欧盟20%的对等关税税率。今年4 月初，特朗普宣布对所有来自欧盟的进口商品征收20%"对等关税"，随后给予90天暂缓期，期间仅征收10%基准关税。目前，美国对欧盟钢铝产 品征收50%关税，汽车领域征收25%关税，几乎所有其他商品征收10%基准关税 ...

若金价反弹至3358附近，可轻仓尝试做空，止损设置在3365上方，目标看向3340昨日低点位置。若3340破位，可进一步下看3330 - 3335区域。 多单策略：等待金价回落至3330 - 3335区间，若能在此区域获得明显支撑并企稳，可轻仓做多，止损设置在3325下方，目标先看3345 - 3350； 然后关注还有没有做空的机会。 黄金走势分析：伦敦金在触及高位后遇阻回落，市场围绕 "涨势能否延续" 产生明显分歧。从驱动因素看，支撑上涨的逻辑包括：美联储鸽派 预期尚未完全消退，贸易政策谈判的不确定性可能引发避险资金流入，以及部分多头对通胀数据的 "利空出尽" 押注。但压制因素同样突出： 3375 附近关键阻力多次承压，昨日美盘初跌破欧盘低点释放回调信号，且美元指数在经济数据公布前的企稳可能进一步制约黄金上行空间。 趋势上，在未有效突破 3375-3380 阻力区间前，高位遇阻后的回调风险大于续涨概率。 周一高开回补缺口后，欧盘拉涨至高位盘整，但未破前高3375，美盘初跌破欧盘低点至3347，验证了 "阻力下做空" 的有效性。随后反弹至 3358附近，恰好是前期计划的二次入场位，形成 "回调 - 反弹 - ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The finished products are expected to run in a volatile and consolidating manner, and the later focus is on macro policies and downstream demand [4] - The aluminum price is expected to run within a short - term range, and attention should be paid to macro sentiment and downstream start - up [5] Summary by Related Catalogs 1.成材 - The production suspension of short - process steel mills in Yunnan and Guizhou regions during the Spring Festival is expected to affect the total output of construction steel by 741,000 tons, and the daily output affected by the suspension of some Anhui steel mills is about 16,200 tons [3][4] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities decreased by 40.3% week - on - week and increased by 43.2% year - on - year [4] - The finished products continued to decline in shock yesterday, with the price hitting a new low recently. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the price center of gravity continues to move down. This year's winter storage is sluggish, and the price support is not strong [4] 2. Aluminum - Last week, the aluminum price ran strongly within the range. The market is concerned about trade negotiation progress and US economic data. Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on Russia, and the market is waiting for US consumer and producer price index data [3] - As of last Thursday, the national metallurgical - grade alumina's built - in total production capacity was 110.82 million tons/year, and the operating total production capacity was 88.57 million tons/year. The weekly alumina start - up rate decreased by 0.05 percentage points to 79.92%. Some enterprises in Shandong and Guangxi carried out maintenance [4] - Guinea requires that 50% of bauxite exports must be transported by ships flying the Guinean flag in the future. As of now in 2025, Guinea's bauxite exports have increased by 37% year - on - year [4] - As of the end of June, the inventory of alumina enterprises increased by 81,000 tons. Affected by factors such as the high - temperature off - season, high aluminum prices, insufficient profit margins, and weak downstream demand, the start - up rate of the aluminum processing industry decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 58.6% last week [4] - On July 14, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 501,000 tons, an increase of 35,000 tons compared with last Thursday and 23,000 tons compared with last Monday [4]

●FPG最新市场脱水消息： 1. 上周六，美国总统特朗普称将对进口到美国的欧盟和墨西哥商品征收30%的关税。这震动了市场，将 金价推高至3374美元/盎司的日高点。然而，特朗普最近的声明表明，他对贸易谈判持开放态度，包括 与欧洲的贸易谈判，这给金价带来下行压力。 现货黄金周一(7月14日)一度涨到三周高点，但很快回落，最终收盘下滑。有分析师指出，特朗普对贸 易谈判持开放态度，这令市场风险偏好改善，打击避险资产黄金。美元涨到近三周高点，代表美元计价 的黄金对其他货币持有者来说相对昂贵。黄金走弱的另一个原因是美国国债收益率正在上升。10年期美 国国债上涨一个基点，至4.427%。联邦基金期货市场显示，交易员预期年底前美联储将降息50个基 点，首度降息可能落在9月。特朗普持续表示希望看到降息，因此这对黄金来说终究是很不错的支撑。 2. 美元走强也在给金价带来压力。追踪美元兑一篮子六种货币表现的美元指数(DXY)上涨0.25%，至 98.10。 3. 美国总统特朗普表示，他愿意进行更多贸易谈判，包括与欧盟的谈判。不过特朗普坚称，他威胁要征 收新关税的信件对美国贸易伙伴来说是"交易"。 4. 投资者严阵以待美国周二公布 ...

据央视新闻报道，美国总统特朗普表示，美方将就关税问题与各国展开磋商，并且对包括欧洲在内的贸 易谈判持开放立场。与此同时，欧盟方面也将前来与美方讨论贸易问题。特朗普还称，目前美方已达成 一些贸易协议。近日，特朗普先后致信20多个国家领导人，称将从8月1日起对这些国家征收新关税。他 还宣布，从8月1日起对所有进口到美国的铜征收50%的关税。 ...

特朗普：（在关税问题上）始终对包括欧洲在内的谈判持开放态度。 ...