Group 1 - The extension of the US-China tariff truce for 90 days has led to immediate retaliatory measures from China against Canada and Japan [1][3] - China imposed a temporary anti-dumping deposit of 75.8% on Canadian canola seeds, following a year-long investigation that concluded Canada engaged in dumping practices [1][3] - The canola seed industry in Canada, which exports approximately CAD 5 billion annually to China, is significantly impacted by this high deposit, leading to a drop in canola prices [3][5] Group 2 - China also targeted Japan, imposing anti-dumping measures on halogenated butyl rubber, with Canadian companies facing a maximum deposit of 40.5% and Japanese companies 30.1% [3][5] - Japan's recent cooperation with the US to limit China's strategic advantages, including reducing reliance on Chinese rare earths and restricting semiconductor exports, has contributed to its negative standing in China [3][5] - The Chinese government has indicated that countries aligning with the US against China will face consequences, as seen in the recent actions against Canada and Japan [5][8] Group 3 - In addition to Canada and Japan, China has taken retaliatory measures against the EU, specifically targeting two Lithuanian banks due to sanctions imposed by the EU on Chinese financial institutions [5][6] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce's actions against the EU are framed as a response to perceived violations of international law and damage to Chinese enterprises [6][8] - China's series of retaliatory measures signal a clear message that while negotiations with the US may continue, other nations should reconsider their alignment with US policies that harm Chinese interests [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the price trends and support/resistance levels of various futures on August 14, 2025, including index futures, bond futures, precious metal futures, base metal futures, energy futures, and agricultural futures [2][3][4][5][7]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market Overview - On August 13, domestic commodity futures closed with mixed results. Some commodities like rapeseed oil, soybean meal, etc. rose, while container shipping to Europe, industrial silicon, etc. declined. International markets showed that COMEX gold futures rose, international oil prices fell, and most LME base metals declined. The U.S. dollar index fell, and the RMB exchange rate had mixed performance [14][15][16][17]. 2. Macro - Information - **Financial Data**: In July 2025, M2 balance was 329.94 trillion yuan, up 8.8% year - on - year; M1 balance was 111.06 trillion yuan, up 5.6% year - on - year. The net capital injection in the first seven months was 465.1 billion yuan. RMB loans increased by 12.87 trillion yuan, and deposits increased by 18.44 trillion yuan. The social financing scale stock was 431.26 trillion yuan, up 9% year - on - year [8]. - **"Double Discount" Policy**: The "double discount" policy for personal consumption loans and service business loans has a one - year term, and its extension will be studied later [9]. - **Equipment Update**: 188 billion yuan of investment subsidy funds for equipment updates supported by special long - term bonds in 2025 have been allocated, driving over 1 trillion yuan in total investment [10]. - **Social Security Fund**: As of August 12, the social security fund appeared in the top ten tradable shares of 41 A - shares, with a total market value of 12.622 billion yuan. It increased holdings in rural commercial banks, feed, and small household appliances, and reduced holdings in power, chemical raw materials, and medical devices [11]. - **Countermeasures against the EU**: China included two EU banks in the counter - list in response to the EU's sanctions on two Chinese financial institutions [12]. - **Fed Outlook**: U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent is optimistic about the Fed's September meeting, with a possible 50 - basis - point rate cut and a series of rate cuts. Trump is considering candidates for the Fed chair [13]. 3. Futures Market Analysis and Forecast Index Futures - On August 13, major index futures contracts showed an upward trend. It is expected that on August 14, index futures will show a strong - side oscillation. For the whole of August 2025, they are also expected to be strong - side oscillating or oscillating strongly [18][19][22][23]. Bond Futures - On August 13, the ten - year and thirty - year bond futures contracts showed a slight upward trend. On August 14, they are expected to have a wide - range oscillation [37][41]. Precious Metal Futures - On August 13, gold and silver futures contracts showed a slight upward trend. In August 2025, they are expected to have a strong - side wide - range oscillation, and on August 14, they are expected to be strong - side oscillating [42][48]. Base Metal Futures - On August 13, copper, aluminum, and other base metal futures contracts showed a slight upward trend, while alumina, industrial silicon, and others declined. In August 2025, they are expected to have various trends such as strong - side wide - range oscillation, wide - range oscillation, etc. On August 14, copper, aluminum, and alumina are expected to be weak - side oscillating, and industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to have a wide - range oscillation [53][59][65][70][72]. Energy Futures - On August 13, the crude oil futures contract declined. In August 2025, it is expected to have a wide - range oscillation, and on August 14, it is expected to be weak - side oscillating [100]. Agricultural Futures - On August 13, the rapeseed meal futures contract rose significantly. On August 14, it is expected to be weak - side oscillating. Other agricultural futures such as PTA and PVC are expected to be weak - side oscillating on August 14 [7][105][108][110].

Group 1 - The U.S. Secretary of Commerce, Wilbur Ross, announced that the deadline for imposing additional tariffs on August 1 will not be extended, indicating a firm stance from the U.S. government [1] - The negotiations between the U.S. and the EU aim to open European markets for U.S. exports, with the key issue being whether the EU's proposed agreement is sufficient to persuade President Trump to abandon the 30% tariff threat [1] - The EU has warned that if a satisfactory trade agreement is not reached before the August 1 deadline, it will implement countermeasures against U.S. tariffs, with potential measures set to take effect on August 7 [1] Group 2 - In 2024, the total goods trade between the U.S. and the EU is projected to be approximately $975.9 billion, which is higher than trade with any other single economy [2] - The U.S. trade deficit with the EU for goods in 2024 is expected to be $235.6 billion, reflecting a 12.9% increase from the previous year [2]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. will not extend the tariff deadline of August 1, and negotiations with the EU are crucial for avoiding a trade conflict [1] Group 1 - U.S. Secretary of Commerce Ross stated that the goal of negotiations with the EU is to open European markets for U.S. exports [1] - The adequacy of the agreement offered by the EU is in question, as it needs to be compelling enough for President Trump to abandon the 30% tariff threat [1] - European leaders have indicated that if a satisfactory trade agreement is not reached before the August 1 deadline, the EU will implement countermeasures against U.S. tariffs [1] Group 2 - The EU Commission spokesperson stated that if negotiations fail, countermeasures will take effect on August 7 [1]

Group 1 - The EU is close to reaching an agreement with the US on a 15% tariff on European products exported to the US, with a potential implementation date of August 7 if negotiations fail [1][2][4] - The EU has prepared countermeasures, including a proposed €93 billion in tariffs on US products, which could reach up to 30% if negotiations do not yield satisfactory results [4][5] - The negotiations are influenced by the US's previous agreements with Japan and the need for President Trump to demonstrate successful outcomes in trade discussions [1][3] Group 2 - The proposed 15% tariff may apply to various sectors, including automobiles and pharmaceuticals, and would not stack on existing tariffs [2][3] - The EU's internal discussions indicate a willingness to accept the 15% tariff as a means to maintain the status quo, potentially reducing the current 27.5% tariff on cars [2][3] - The EU is also considering the activation of the "anti-coercion tool" as a response to US tariffs, reflecting a strong stance among member states [5][6] Group 3 - The deadline for reaching an agreement is approaching, with many unresolved issues remaining, particularly concerning Canada and Mexico, which face significant tariffs if no agreement is reached [6][7] - The cancellation of the US-South Korea "2+2" economic talks raises concerns about the likelihood of reaching a tariff agreement with South Korea before the deadline [7] - Analysts suggest that the US's fluctuating negotiation strategy has created significant uncertainty in global trade [7]

Group 1 - The European Commission aims to enhance the clarity, simplicity, and effectiveness of its countermeasures by merging the lists 1 and 2 into a single list [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the escalating trade tensions between the EU and the US, particularly in light of President Trump's announcement of a 30% tariff on EU and Mexican imports, which has led to increased market volatility and concerns over economic impacts [1][7][4]. Group 1: Trade Negotiations - The EU is preparing to strengthen cooperation with countries also threatened by US tariffs, including Canada and Japan, potentially coordinating response measures [2][6]. - EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stated that while the EU has paused retaliatory measures until August 1, it is preparing further countermeasures to ensure readiness [10][11]. - The EU's current countermeasure list could affect approximately €210 billion (about $245 billion) of US goods, with an additional list of around €720 billion being prepared [11]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following Trump's tariff announcement, European stock indices fell, with the Euro Stoxx 50 index down 0.6% and the German DAX index down 0.7% on July 14 [3][7]. - US stock markets also experienced declines, with the Dow Jones down 0.15% and the S&P 500 down 0.2% [8]. Group 3: Economic Impact - Analysts warn that if the 30% tariff is fully implemented, the effective tariff rate on the EU could rise to 26 percentage points, potentially leading to a cumulative GDP decline of 1.2% in the Eurozone by the end of 2026 [4][24]. - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs may lead to increased inflation and volatility in interest rates and exchange rates, impacting risk assets and commodities [24]. Group 4: Political Responses - French President Macron expressed strong dissatisfaction with Trump's tariff threats, urging the EU to prepare credible countermeasures if no agreement is reached by August 1 [13]. - German Chancellor Merz indicated that failure to resolve the trade conflict through negotiations would fundamentally impact European exporters [14]. Group 5: Ongoing Negotiations - Key issues in the ongoing EU-US negotiations include automotive and agricultural tariffs, with discussions about a preliminary agreement that may involve a 10% tariff on most EU exports [16][17]. - There is skepticism among EU officials regarding Trump's commitment to the 30% tariff, viewing it as a negotiation tactic rather than a definitive policy [18].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. tariff plan is seen as suppressive to bilateral trade, necessitating balanced and comprehensive countermeasures from the EU [1] Group 1 - The EU's Šefčovič emphasizes the need for a well-rounded response to the U.S. tariff strategy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Union (EU) is preparing to respond collectively with other countries affected by the new tariffs imposed by the United States, particularly targeting a 30% tariff on products from Mexico and the EU starting August 1, 2025 [1]. Group 1: EU's Response to US Tariffs - The EU is coordinating with Canada and Japan to discuss potential joint actions against the new tariffs [1]. - The EU has a current retaliation list that will impact approximately €210 billion ($245 billion) worth of US goods, along with an additional list worth €720 billion for further measures [2]. - EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stated that while the EU has paused countermeasures until August 1, they are preparing further retaliation measures to ensure readiness [1][2]. Group 2: Trade Negotiations Focus - Ongoing negotiations between the EU and the US are centered on unresolved issues, particularly concerning automotive and agricultural tariffs [5]. - The preliminary agreement discussed includes a 10% tariff on most EU exports and a proposed 17% tariff on agricultural products from the EU [5]. - The EU aims to keep agricultural export tariffs below 10% and opposes mechanisms that would allow tariff reductions in exchange for investments, to prevent production shifts [5]. Group 3: Use of Trade Tools - The EU's most powerful trade tool, the Anti-Coercion Instrument (ACI), is not currently being activated, as stated by von der Leyen [3]. - French President Emmanuel Macron emphasized the need for credible countermeasures, including the ACI, if no agreement is reached before August 1 [4].

Core Viewpoint - The German government, led by Vice Chancellor Olaf Scholz, has issued a stern warning regarding the new tariffs proposed by the United States, indicating potential decisive countermeasures if trade negotiations fail [1] Group 1 - The German government is prepared to consider "decisive countermeasures" in response to the U.S. tariffs [1] - Vice Chancellor Olaf Scholz's statement reflects the seriousness of the trade negotiations between Germany and the United States [1] - The warning comes amid ongoing tensions regarding trade policies and tariffs [1]