Consumption - Travel and tourism activity remains high, with significant recovery in urban and intercity population movement, reflected in increased subway ridership and flight operations[7] - Retail and wholesale volumes for automobiles have slightly declined, indicating a weakening effect of promotional activities and subsidies[7] - Movie attendance and box office revenues have significantly decreased post-summer, indicating a drop in consumer interest[7] Investment - New special bonds issued reached CNY 3.08 trillion as of August 16, with a recent acceleration in issuance[20] - Real estate transaction volumes remain subdued, with new home sales in 30 cities showing a slight recovery but still down year-on-year[20] - Construction activity is marginally improving, with asphalt operating rates increasing and cement shipment rates recovering seasonally[20] Trade and Prices - Import and export volumes are showing divergence, with a 11.1% decline in imports from China to South Korea and a 4.3% drop in global exports[26] - Domestic export freight rates have decreased for seven consecutive weeks, reflecting a retreat from previous shipping surges due to tariff concerns[26] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) remains flat overall, with industrial prices showing little change except for a notable 15% increase in lithium carbonate prices[44] Liquidity - The 10-year government bond yield rose by 5.7 basis points to 1.75%, indicating a tightening liquidity environment[47] - The US dollar index fell by 42 basis points, influenced by moderate inflation data from July, which strengthened expectations for a potential interest rate cut in September[47]

Group 1 - Modi's speech during India's Independence Day emphasized a strong stance against US-India trade tensions, particularly in response to Trump's tariff threats, asserting that India will not compromise its national interests [1] - The core reason for Modi's firm attitude is Trump's aggressive tariff demands and unacceptable requests, particularly regarding agricultural market access, which threatens the livelihoods of approximately 42% of India's population [2][3] - Modi's government is politically constrained from yielding to Trump's demands due to the potential backlash from domestic farmers, a crucial voter base [3] Group 2 - India has taken countermeasures, such as canceling the defense minister's visit to the US and pausing planned military purchases, which could impact US economic interests [3] - Modi is actively seeking international support through multilateral cooperation, focusing on organizations like BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization to mitigate the negative effects of US tariffs [5] - The strategy of strengthening ties with other nations is aimed at enhancing India's negotiating position with the US, indicating a potential temporary shift in foreign policy [7] Group 3 - Modi's actions not only seek to gain international support but also aim to showcase his leadership domestically, thereby maintaining political stability amid external pressures [9]

在农业和食品行业领域，包括葡萄酒、奶酪等法国优势出口产品均被排除在豁免清单之外，且美方要求 简化欧盟在肉类、奶制品等方面的卫生认证，这将对法国乃至欧洲整体食品安全体系造成影响。据统 计，法国相关行业每年向美销售约3.5亿欧元乳制品。法国农业部长热纳瓦尔指出，"如果葡萄酒和烈酒 出口最终未获豁免，相关行业将面临8亿欧元的额外关税冲击"。法食品出口商担心额外的进口税将压低 其产品价格，并使本就因通胀而面临拮据难题的美国消费者更加无力承担，进而对法国出口造成影响。 法国葡萄酒与烈酒出口协会主席雅尼克·菲亚利普表示，在美元疲软背景下，相关关税将持续增加法对 美出口压力，并对法竞争力造成冲击。 在数字服务和科技领域，美方宣称欧方已承诺免除对美企征收相关税费，但欧盟仅表态"将另行协调"。 法国则将该领域视为对美施压的关键领域，推动欧盟针对美在线服务巨头征收数字税。对此，法国欧洲 事务部长本杰明·哈达德曾表示，"如果欧方希望在保持对美压力上走得更远，数字服务和知识产权等领 域将成为选项"。 在军购与能源领域，美方曾明确指出，"欧洲将在2026年前大量采购美国装备"，但欧方则认为"军事采 购从未作为正式议题"。法国总统马克龙 ...

7 月 31 日，路透社消息显示，印度四大国有石油企业 —— 印度石油公司、印度斯坦石油公司、巴拉特石油公司及芒格 洛尔炼油厂，自上周起已停止向俄罗斯提出新的油品采购需求。这一动态标志着印度规模最大的国有石油企业群体， 已暂时中断与俄罗斯的石油贸易往来。 值得注意的是，尽管印度两家私营石油公司是俄罗斯石油在印的最大买家，但国有石油企业掌控着该国 60% 以上的炼 油加工能力，日均处理量约达 520 万桶，在行业中占据关键地位。 其中，印度最大的石油公司 —— 印度石油公司目前已明确拒绝俄罗斯联邦的石油供应，这对俄罗斯石油出口构成显著 冲击。作为印度石油行业的巨头，该公司 alone 就运营着全国 20 家炼油厂中的 10 家，其采购决策的影响力不言而喻。 特朗普在几天前公开警告说，向俄罗斯购买石油的国家很可能将被征收100%的关税，这让印度炼油业陷入混乱。 一家炼油厂负责人透露，这几天他们正在等待莫迪政府关于进一步行动的建议。与此同时，他们两手准备，正重新关 注来自中东和非洲的石油。 如今特朗普的100%关税还没实施呢，印度国有石油公司就暂停购买俄罗斯石油，当然是得到了莫迪政府的指示，防患 于未然，别刺激特朗 ...

Core Viewpoint - Analysts express concern that significantly weaker-than-expected U.S. non-farm payroll data could challenge the current strength of the U.S. dollar, potentially undermining the narrative of economic resilience in the face of tariff threats [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Economic Outlook - Analysts are pessimistic about the upcoming non-farm payroll report, suggesting it may disrupt the perception of U.S. economic resilience [1]

此前，美国宣布自8月1日起对从巴西进口的商品征收50%的关税。 卢拉表示，美国的关税威胁让巴西感到"担忧"，他不会屈服于美国的决定，无论美国是想打政治仗还是 想谈贸易，巴西都奉陪，但美国不应将政治问题和贸易问题混为一谈。 7月30日，美媒发表对巴西总统卢拉的采访视频，卢拉表示他曾尝试联系特朗普，但对方并无就关税问 题进行沟通的意愿。 ...

巴西圣保罗证交所指数收跌1.04%，报13.2万点。 巴西雷亚尔兑美元跌0.44%，报5.5886雷亚尔，7月9日重挫以来，持续纠缠于5.58雷亚尔附近。 巴西副总统Geraldo Alckmin表示，针对美国关税威胁的回应计划准备就绪。 ...

【文/观察者网 柳白】当地时间7月27日，怀着"以拖待变"侥幸心理的欧盟，终于等来了美欧新贸易协 议，但质疑声几乎扑面而来。 据央视新闻消息，欧洲议会国际贸易委员会主席贝恩德·朗格表示，美欧新贸易协议严重失衡并损害欧 洲利益，是一项带有偏见的协议。另有多名欧洲政界人士直言，欧盟向特朗普的屈服之路早在4月就开 始了，尽管这份新协议暂时避免了贸易战，但倘若欧盟早点采取强硬立场，跟中国一道反制特朗普关税 威胁，而不是选择妥协，欧盟就不会在谈判中居于劣势，也许能拿到更好的条件。 "欧盟早该配合中国反制" 特朗普4月初公布的"对等关税"一度金融市场陷入恐慌，投资者抛售美国资产，担心经济衰退。随着抛 售加剧，特朗普有所退让，在4月10日关税生效前夕，宣布暂时只对欧盟征收10%的基准关税。 但欧盟也让步了。4月10日，欧盟暂停对美国征收报复性关税，并在"刀架在脖子上"的情况下接受了美 国的谈判提议。欧盟没有像中国和加拿大那样立即采取报复措施，让美国消费者和企业承受损失，而是 因成员国之间的内部分歧选择吞下苦果，希望能在未来获得更好的协议。 7月27日，苏格 兰坦贝利，美国总统特朗普与欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩举行会晤。 IC ...

美国商务部长卢特尼克：问题在于欧盟是否提供了足够好的协议，让特朗普放弃30%关税威胁。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Brazilian pig iron producers are considering halting operations due to reduced demand from U.S. customers caused by tariff threats [1] Group 1: Company Responses - Modulax's CEO, Geraldo Basques, announced that the company will cease operations next week and plans maintenance work later this year, with no set date for resuming production due to trade concerns [1] - Competitor Css Siderurgica Setelagoana stated that it is currently operating using raw material inventory while awaiting clarity on tariff situations, but may be forced to stop production once the inventory is depleted [1] Group 2: Market Context - The U.S. is the largest buyer of Brazilian pig iron, making the market highly sensitive to tariff changes [1] - President Trump has threatened to impose a 50% tariff on Latin American countries starting August 1, which has heightened uncertainty in the trade environment [1]