We expect its earnings to grow 32% HoH in 2H25. We assume average spot LME copper price to rise 3% HoH in 2H25. We also assume the unfavourable RMB1.15bn change in fair value in 1H25 to revert in 2H25. We further assume the company will book an RMB1.5bn gain from the disposal of a subsidiary in Xinjiang. While we are positive on the long-term outlook of copper price, the company's share price has surged too much too soon. Including the 10% gain yesterday, its share price has surged 49% since its positive ea ...

Report Information - Report Name: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: August 19, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided. Core View - The Shanghai copper fluctuated slightly downwards, with the main contract closing at 78,950. The US dollar index fluctuated weakly. The market is waiting for Powell's speech at the Global Central Bank Annual Meeting on Friday evening. The spot copper price rose 100 to 79,280, and the spot premium rose 45 to 225. The domestic supply is still tight, making the spot premium of Shanghai copper firm. The import profit of spot copper expanded to 330. It is expected that the import supply will increase in the future. On Monday, the social inventory increased by 0.81 million tons compared with last Thursday. The demand is also rising as the off - peak and peak seasons change, and it is expected that the inventory accumulation space this week is limited. The LME inventory decreased by 200 tons on Monday. The low - inventory pattern in the domestic and foreign markets continues to support the copper price. Reiterate the support level of 78,000 for Shanghai copper, and the upper pressure level is 80,000 due to the lack of obvious bullish factors in the short term [10]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The Shanghai copper fluctuated slightly downwards, and the main contract closed at 78,950. The impact of the Trump - Putin talks on market sentiment was limited. The spot copper price rose 100 to 79,280, and the spot premium rose 45 to 225. The domestic supply shortage made the spot premium firm, and the import profit of spot copper expanded to 330. The LME0 - 3C structure expanded to 92. It is expected that the import supply will increase. The social inventory increased by 0.81 million tons on Monday compared with last Thursday, with both imported and domestic supplies increasing. The demand is rising as the off - peak and peak seasons change, and it is expected that the inventory accumulation space this week is limited. The LME inventory decreased by 200 tons on Monday. The low - inventory pattern in both domestic and foreign markets supports the copper price. The support level for Shanghai copper is 78,000, and the upper pressure level is 80,000 [10]. 2. Industry News - On August 17, Tongling Nonferrous Metals announced that its operating income in the first half of 2025 was 76.079 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.39%, and the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 1.441 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 33.94% [11]. - Due to the approaching Tianjin SCO Summit, the transportation vehicles in the surrounding areas of North China will be strictly controlled, which affects the supply and boosts the spot premium of electrolytic copper in the local area [11]. - In July 2025, China's export volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 190,796 tons, a year - on - year increase of 35.4%. The cumulative export volume from January to July was 934,046 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.0%. In July, China's import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 480,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.0%. The cumulative import volume from January to July was 3.11 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.6% [11].

本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【周一和周二铜价小幅偏强，投资者需警惕需求疲弱影响】周一和周二，铜价小幅偏强，系对前期回落 的修正。目前，LME铜与COMEX铜价差基本稳定，短期内LME铜价难超COMEX铜价，但现货市场和 库存仍有变化。 短期来看，COMEX铜领跌带来的超跌，或小幅推升另外两大铜市场估值。不过，投资 者仍要警惕铜需求疲弱的不利影响。 当前，铜市场存在利多因素。美国与其他国家达成关税政策协 议，美元指数因就业数据回落，且下方支撑明显。 同时，也有利空因素。关税政策反复，全球需求因 关税政策降低，美国对铜关税政策调整使COMEX库存极度虚高。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The Shanghai copper market has an overall fundamental situation where supply growth may slow slightly, demand is currently weak but the outlook is gradually improving. The option market sentiment is bullish with a slightly decreased implied volatility. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows the double - line below the 0 - axis with the red bar converging. The recommended operation is to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 78,930 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 9,772 dollars/ton, down 26 dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread is - 10 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the main contract's open interest of Shanghai copper is 171,689 lots, down 2,055 lots. The top 20 futures positions of Shanghai copper are 8,781 lots, down 5,333 lots. The LME copper inventory is 127,625 tons, up 225 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange's cathode copper inventory is 73,423 tons, down 11,133 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants are 19,400 tons, up 2,125 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange's cathode copper warrants are 19,973 tons, down 2,856 tons [2] 现货市场 - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 79,285 yuan/ton, up 260 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous market 1 copper spot price is 79,285 yuan/ton, up 280 yuan. The Shanghai electrolytic copper CIF (bill of lading) price is 62 dollars/ton, unchanged; the Yangshan copper average premium is 51.5 dollars/ton, down 3.5 dollars. The CU main contract basis is 355 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan; the LME copper premium (0 - 3) is - 51.71 dollars/ton, up 2.63 dollars [2] Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 234.97 million tons, down 4.58 million tons. The copper smelter's rough smelting fee (TC) is - 42.63 dollars/kiloton, up 0.82 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 69,610 yuan/metal ton, up 290 yuan; in Yunnan, it is 70,310 yuan/metal ton, up 290 yuan. The rough copper southern processing fee is 800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the northern processing fee is 750 yuan/ton, unchanged. The refined copper output is 130.20 million tons, up 4.80 million tons; the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 460,000 tons, up 30,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai is 0 yuan/ton, down 55,290 yuan; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 67,900 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 640 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Downstream and Application - The copper product output is 221.45 million tons, up 11.85 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 291.1 billion yuan, up 87.114 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 4,665.756 billion yuan, up 1,042.372 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,505,785,400 pieces, up 270,785,400 pieces [2] Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 10.48%, up 0.03%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 9.94%, down 0.14%. The current month's at - the - money IV implied volatility is 10.68%, down 0.0073. The at - the - money option purchase - to - put ratio is 1.38, down 0.0894 [2] Industry News - The IMF raised China's 2025 GDP growth forecast by 0.8 percentage points to 4.8% and the 2026 growth rate by 0.2 percentage points to 4.2%. It also raised the 2025 global economic growth forecast to 3%, and slightly raised the US economic growth forecast to 1.9%, and expected the eurozone economic growth to accelerate to 1% - A Fed governor will miss a policy meeting, and the committee is likely to keep interest rates unchanged - The central bank's second - quarter survey shows that over half of entrepreneurs and bankers think the current macro - economy is stable, while residents have a cold expectation of employment in the second quarter and most expect prices and housing prices to remain stable in the next quarter - China and the US will continue to promote the extension of the 24% part of the US reciprocal tariffs and China's counter - measures. The two sides' economic and trade teams will maintain close communication - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee will hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee in October, and analyzed the current economic situation and deployed the economic work for the second half of the year [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the progress of trade negotiations led by Trump remains a key factor influencing copper prices [1] - China's trade data for the first half of the year is being released, and the copper import and export figures may provide new guidance [1]

LME铜价下跌，市场情绪谨慎，贸易谈判与美国铜进口税调查将如何影响铜价？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

Core Viewpoint - Domestic electrolytic copper continues to accumulate inventory, with expectations for copper prices to rise following improvements in macroeconomic conditions [3]. Group 1: Macro Environment - Recent trade conflicts have eased, but the negative impacts of tariffs and trade disputes on the economy have yet to manifest, which will continue to suppress copper price increases [3]. Group 2: Supply and Inventory - Domestic electrolytic copper inventory has increased, primarily due to the weakening of preemptive stocking effects against tariffs and the gradual onset of the off-season [3]. - As of May 23, 2025, domestic port copper concentrate inventory stands at 780,000 tons, a decrease of 4.8% from the previous week [4]. - Global electrolytic copper inventory across major exchanges totaled 452,000 tons as of May 16, 2025, an increase of 4.7% [4]. Group 3: Raw Materials - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper is 867 yuan/ton, down 800 yuan/ton from the previous week [5]. - In March 2025, China's copper concentrate production was 157,000 tons, an increase of 25.4% month-on-month and 6.9% year-on-year [5]. Group 4: Smelting - As of April 2025, China's electrolytic copper production was 1,125,700 tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.3% and a year-on-year increase of 14.3% [6]. - The current spot TC price is -44.30 USD/pound, down 1.3 USD/pound from May 16, 2025, remaining at the lowest level since September 2007 [6]. Group 5: Demand - The cable industry, which accounts for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand, had a cable enterprise operating rate of 82.34% as of May 22, 2025, a decrease of 1.05 percentage points from the previous week [7]. - In April 2025, China's household air conditioner production was 22.42 million units, a year-on-year increase of 1.9% [7]. Group 6: Futures Market - As of May 23, 2025, the SHFE copper active contract position was 152,000 lots, a decrease of 11% from the previous week [8]. - The COMEX non-commercial net long position was 21,000 lots as of May 20, 2025, a decrease of 2.2% from the previous week [8].

有色金属丨日报 s 投资咨询业务资格 核心观点 证监许可【2011】1772 号 有色金属研究员：薛丽冰 联系电话：020-88523420 从业资格号：F03090983 投资咨询号：Z0016886 二、基本面情况 宏观方面，美国出现股债汇三杀，30 年期美债收益率升破 5%。 供给方面，2025 年 4 月我国铜废料及碎料进口呈现"环比回暖、 同比收缩"的态势，单月进口量 20.47 万吨，环比增长 7.92%，但较去 年同期下降 9.46%。1-4 月累计进口 77.7 万吨，同比微降 0.81%。3-4 月数据显示，美国对华铜废料出口呈现"双降"特征:3 月出口量 225 万吨(环比-28.41%，同比-51.51%)，不在中国市场的份额降至 11.85%， 排名跌落至第二位；4 月虽环比微增 4.98%至 2.36 万吨，但同比仍大 幅下滑 43.98%,份额进一步萎缩至 11.52%，排名被泰国反超滑落至第 三。与此形成鲜明对比的是亚洲供应链的强势崛起。日本 4 月对华出 口量达 3.27 万吨，环比增长 21.02%，同比逆势增长 13.78%，以 15.96% 的占比稳居榜首。另外泰国市场， ...

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates a positive outlook for copper prices due to expected macroeconomic improvements, despite current trade tensions and inventory fluctuations [3]. Inventory - Domestic copper social inventory increased by 10% week-on-week, while LME copper inventory decreased by 6% [4]. - As of May 16, 2025, domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory stood at 820,000 tons, down 9% from the previous week [4]. - Global electrolytic copper inventory totaled 432,000 tons as of May 9, 2025, a decrease of 0.6% [4]. Raw Materials - In March 2025, China's copper concentrate production was 157,000 tons, up 25.4% month-on-month and 6.9% year-on-year [5]. - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper was 1,667 RMB/ton as of May 16, 2025, an increase of 372 RMB/ton from May 9 [5]. - Domestic old scrap copper production in April 2025 was 88,000 tons, down 20% month-on-month and 22.5% year-on-year [5]. Smelting - In April 2025, China's electrolytic copper production was 1,125,700 tons, a 0.3% increase month-on-month and a 14.3% increase year-on-year [6]. - The TC spot price as of May 16, 2025, was -43.03 USD/pound, reflecting a slight increase but remaining at the lowest level since September 2007 [6]. - From January to March 2025, the cumulative net import of electrolytic copper was 725,000 tons, a decrease of 17.7% year-on-year [6]. Demand - The cable industry accounted for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand, with a cable enterprise operating rate of 83.39% as of May 15, 2025, down 0.1 percentage points week-on-week [7]. - The air conditioning sector, which represents about 13% of domestic copper demand, saw copper tube production of 189,000 tons in April 2025, down 1.8% month-on-month and 7.1% year-on-year [7]. - Copper rod production, which constitutes about 4.2% of domestic copper demand, had a brass rod operating rate of 55.0% in April 2025, up 0.6 percentage points but down 0.3 percentage points year-on-year [7]. Futures - As of May 16, 2025, the SHFE copper active contract position was 180,000 lots, a decrease of 3.9% week-on-week, placing it at the 49th percentile since 1995 [8]. - The COMEX non-commercial net long position was 22,000 lots as of May 13, 2025, down 0.8% week-on-week, at the 58th percentile since 1990 [8].

Core View - High tariffs still pose a threat to copper prices, and the market sentiment will improve after the tariff risk decreases. The tight supply and demand of copper concentrate and scrap copper are still the main factors boosting copper prices. Attention should be paid to the risk of decreased copper demand when the copper market gradually enters the off - season [2][5] Market Overview - On May 15, the opening price of the main Shanghai copper contract was 78,900 yuan/ton, reaching a maximum of 79,090 yuan/ton and a minimum of 77,860 yuan/ton, closing at 77,870 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.14%. The trading volume for the day was 110,000 lots, with a reduction of 2,000 lots. The open interest was 187,000 lots, a reduction of 7,000 lots [3] Fundamental Situation Macroeconomic Aspect - Fed Vice - Chair Jefferson expects tariffs to slow the economy, and the inflation outlook is unclear [3] Supply Aspect - Mysteel statistics show that the inventory of imported copper concentrates at 16 Chinese ports in the current week was 897,000 tons, an increase of 11,000 tons compared to April 25. The TC dropped to 44 dollars/ton [3] Demand Aspect - In April 2025, the domestic copper strip production was 215,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.46% and a year - on - year increase of 4.97%. The domestic electrolytic copper foil production was 100,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.4%, including 39,300 tons of electronic circuit copper foil and 60,900 tons of lithium - ion copper foil. It is expected that the domestic electrolytic copper foil production in May will be 99,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.1%. In April, the domestic copper tube production was 201,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8,100 tons with an increase rate of 4.16%, and the comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 87.27%, a month - on - month increase of 3.48%. It is expected that the copper tube production in May will decrease to about 192,700 tons, and the capacity utilization rate will be 83.42%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.85%. In April, the actual production of domestic recycled copper rods was 203,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11% and a year - on - year increase of 1.81% [4] Inventory Aspect - On May 15, LME copper inventory decreased by 925 tons to 184,650 tons, and the SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 10,466 tons to 60,535 tons [4] Future Outlook - After the tariff risk decreases, the market sentiment will improve. The tight supply and demand of copper concentrate and scrap copper are still the main factors boosting copper prices. Attention should be paid to the risk of decreased copper demand when the copper market gradually enters the off - season [5]