Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Focus - **Foreign Exchange and Rates Strategy**: The conference call primarily discusses strategies and outlooks for foreign exchange (FX) and interest rates across various regions, particularly Asia and G10 currencies. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **USD/CNH Outlook**: The current spot reference for USD/CNH is 6.980, with expectations for potential movements in the next three months [1] 2. **Top FX Trades**: - Long CNH/KRW with a target of 216 by end-February, conviction level raised to 4/5 [2][9] - Long NZD/USD targeting 0.6000 by end-March, conviction level at 4/5 [2][16] - New long positions initiated in EUR/GBP and SGD/IDR, both with conviction levels of 3/5 [2][9] 3. **US Economic Indicators**: - December NFP report showed +50K jobs added vs. consensus of +70K, with an unemployment rate of 4.4% [4] - Upcoming US core CPI release on January 13 is anticipated to be significant, with a forecast of 0.5% m-o-m, which could influence Fed rate cut expectations [7] 4. **China's Economic Data**: - December exports are expected to show a slowdown to 3.0% y-o-y from 5.9% previously, which could impact RMB performance [8] - Positive expectations for RMB appreciation due to stable external sector conditions and reduced USD purchases by banks [18] 5. **Korean Won (KRW) Dynamics**: - Anticipated underperformance of KRW due to retail outflows into US equities and structural outflows from the Korea National Pension Service [20] 6. **Singapore Monetary Policy**: - MAS may tighten FX policy in April 2026, with a 30% chance of a slight slope increase in January [21] 7. **Indonesian Fiscal Concerns**: - Indonesia's fiscal deficit is projected to be 2.92% of GDP, raising concerns about future fiscal policy under the new administration [22][23] 8. **Taiwan's Currency Position**: - Maintaining a short USD/TWD position with a target of 29.8 by end-May 2026, supported by strong local fundamentals and global AI demand [24] Other Important Insights 1. **Market Reactions to US Tariffs**: The Supreme Court's decision on Trump's tariffs could lead to significant market reactions, with expectations of a ruling against the tariffs [4][6] 2. **NOK/SEK Trade**: Profit taken on short NOK/SEK trade due to changes in Norges Bank's FX activity, with a bullish outlook on SEK [11] 3. **JPY Weakness**: Ongoing concerns about JPY weakness amid geopolitical tensions and the need for reassurance from Japanese authorities [12] 4. **Canadian Dollar (CAD) Performance**: CAD has weakened due to falling crude oil prices and potential shifts in US oil imports [13] 5. **AUD Valuation**: AUD is considered undervalued, with a target of 0.6875 by end-March, supported by positive global sentiment [14][15] This summary encapsulates the key themes and insights from the conference call, highlighting the strategic outlook for various currencies and the macroeconomic factors influencing these positions.

Trade and Tariffs - President Trump announced a 25% tariff on goods from any country conducting business with Iran, impacting major trading partners like China, the UAE, India, and Turkey [3][4] - China is identified as the top global importer of Iranian crude, which may face increased costs due to the new tariffs [3] Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams indicated there is no urgency for a fourth consecutive interest rate cut, with the next meeting scheduled for the end of the month [5][6] - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has already reduced the federal funds rate by a cumulative 75 basis points last year, moving towards a neutral monetary policy stance [6] Aldi's Expansion Plans - Aldi plans to open over 180 new stores across 31 states by the end of 2026, celebrating its 50th anniversary in the U.S. [7][8] - This expansion will increase Aldi's total U.S. store count to nearly 2,800, with a target of 3,200 stores by the end of 2028 [8] - Aldi is also expanding its distribution network by 20% with new centers planned in Florida, Arizona, and Colorado over the next three years [9]

Trade and Tariffs - President Trump announced a 25% tariff on goods from any country conducting business with Iran, affecting major trading partners like China, the UAE, India, and Turkey [3][4] - China is identified as the top global importer of Iranian crude, which may face increased costs due to the new tariffs [3] Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams indicated there is no urgency for a fourth consecutive interest rate cut, with the next meeting scheduled for the end of the month [5][6] - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has already reduced the federal funds rate by a cumulative 75 basis points last year, moving towards a neutral monetary policy stance [6] Aldi's Expansion Plans - Aldi plans to open over 180 new stores across 31 states by the end of 2026, celebrating its 50th anniversary in the U.S. [7][8] - This expansion will increase Aldi's total U.S. store count to nearly 2,800, with a target of 3,200 stores by the end of 2028 [8] - Aldi is also expanding its distribution network by 20% with new centers planned in Florida, Arizona, and Colorado over the next three years [9]

Core Viewpoint - Delta Air Lines is expected to see earnings jump more than 20% in 2025 due to strong travel demand, particularly in the premium segment, potentially reaching record levels [1] Financial Performance - Delta forecasts adjusted earnings per share between $6.50 and $7.50 for the current year, slightly below analysts' estimate of $7.25 [1] - For the first quarter of 2026, Delta anticipates sales growth of up to 7% and adjusted earnings per share between $0.50 and $0.90, compared to analysts' forecast of $0.72 [2] - In the fourth quarter, Delta reported a profit of $1.22 billion, or $1.86 per share, a nearly 45% increase year-over-year, with revenue of $16 billion, up 3% from 2025 [4] Revenue Breakdown - Main cabin ticket revenue fell 7% year-over-year to $5.62 billion in the fourth quarter, while premium ticket revenue rose 9% to nearly $5.7 billion, surpassing main cabin revenue for the first time [5] - For the full year, main cabin revenue remained higher than premium classes despite the recent trend [5] Market Conditions - Bookings from both leisure and corporate travelers have been strong at the start of the year, indicating robust demand [3] - CEO Ed Bastian expressed caution regarding future earnings projections due to geopolitical uncertainties and domestic policy risks [4]

Group 1 - President Trump announced a 25% tariff on any country conducting business with Iran, aiming to increase pressure on Tehran amid ongoing protests [2][3] - The U.S. goods and services trade with Iran was valued at $838.4 million in 2024, despite existing sanctions [3][4] - Iran's major trading partners include China, Türkiye, the UAE, Iraq, and India, with exports primarily consisting of petroleum and natural gas products [4] Group 2 - The announcement is expected to significantly impact global energy prices, given Iran's status as a major oil and gas producer with an output exceeding 4 million barrels per day [4] - There is a risk of potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping corridor for oil, which could lead to Brent crude prices spiking to $110 per barrel according to Goldman Sachs analysts [5] - Current WTI crude futures are trading at $59.72 per barrel, reflecting a 0.67% increase, while February natural gas futures are down to $3.340 per MMBtu [6]

The tariff threat comes a day after President Donald Trump said Iran was "starting to†cross U.S. red lines, noting reports of civilian deaths. ...

U.S. President Donald Trump takes questions from reporters, as he attends a meeting with oil industry executives, at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., Jan. 9, 2026.President Donald Trump on Monday said any country doing business with Iran will face a 25% tariff "on any and all business being done with the United States of America."That new tariff on imports from Iran's trading partners is "effective immediately," Trump said in a Truth Social post."This Order is final and conclusive. Thank you for y ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is on track to deliver 4%-5% revenue growth and approximately 10% earnings growth for 2025 [6] - The impact of tariffs resulted in about $2 million in the third quarter and an expected $10 million in Q4 [11] - The balance sheet at the end of the third quarter showed approximately $20 million of tariffs [11] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Significant growth was noted in the XTRATUF brand, which has expanded into a fashion product while maintaining functionality [23] - The Muck product has rebounded well after a period of over-inventory, with new product introductions like the RainScape expected to drive sales in 2026 [23][25] - The Rocky, Georgia, and Durango brands' performance varies seasonally, with work boots seeing increased demand [24][32] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has successfully navigated tariff impacts by implementing price increases, which did not significantly affect sales [10][11] - The e-commerce business showed strong performance, particularly for the XTRATUF brand, with positive sales trends in regions like Colorado and Wisconsin [29][30] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on leveraging its manufacturing capabilities in the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico to mitigate tariff impacts [8][14] - There is an emphasis on expanding the e-commerce business and enhancing digital marketing efforts to drive growth [41][42] - The Lehigh business model, which provides safety footwear services, is seen as a recurring revenue stream with growth potential [36][54] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the challenges posed by tariffs but expressed optimism about achieving gross margins above pre-tariff levels by the second half of 2026 [12][40] - The company is excited about its product offerings for Spring 2026, indicating a strong pipeline of new products [25][39] - Management noted that the competitive landscape is intense, particularly for the Muck and XTRATUF brands, which are market leaders [44][46] Other Important Information - The company plans to experiment with adding prescription safety glasses to its Lehigh offerings, which could provide additional revenue [37] - The company is focused on maintaining a strong balance sheet and plans to pay down debt while optimizing inventory levels [50][51] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you discuss the tariff exposure and pricing strategies? - Management highlighted that retailers understood the need for price increases due to tariffs, and there was no significant negative impact on sales [10][11] Question: What are the growth opportunities for XTRATUF and Muck? - Management discussed efforts to expand XTRATUF's presence in the central U.S. and noted Muck's steady performance, with new product launches expected to drive growth [29][30] Question: How does the Lehigh business model work? - The Lehigh business provides safety footwear services through employer partnerships, allowing employees to purchase footwear with subsidies, which has shown consistent growth [34][36] Question: What is the outlook for annual growth? - Management indicated a potential increase in growth guidance for 2026, driven by the performance of XTRATUF, e-commerce, and Lehigh [39] Question: How is the competitive landscape? - Management acknowledged the competitive nature of the rubber boot market, emphasizing the need for innovation and creativity in product launches [44][46]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Rocky Brands is on track to deliver 4%-5% revenue growth and approximately 10% earnings growth for FY 2025 [7][8] - The company faced a $20 million impact from tariffs on the balance sheet by the end of Q3 2025, with an expected $10 million impact in Q4 [12][13] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Significant growth was observed in the XTRATUF brand, which has expanded into a fashion product while maintaining functionality [22] - The Muck brand has shown a recovery in 2025 after a period of over-inventory, with new product introductions like the RainScape boot expected to drive sales in 2026 [22][24] - The Lehigh division has experienced low double-digit growth over the last five years, with plans to introduce prescription safety glasses in 2026 [30][32] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has successfully navigated tariff impacts by implementing price increases and shifting production to the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico [9][10] - E-commerce sales have been strong, particularly for the XTRATUF brand, indicating a growing demand for online shopping [26][34] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on leveraging its manufacturing capabilities to mitigate tariff impacts and improve gross margins [15][34] - There is an emphasis on expanding the e-commerce business and enhancing digital marketing efforts to drive brand awareness and sales [36][34] - The company aims to maintain a competitive edge by innovating product offerings and exploring new market opportunities [38] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the challenges posed by tariffs in 2025 but expressed optimism about the company's ability to adapt and grow [8][10] - The outlook for 2026 includes expectations for gross margins to exceed pre-tariff levels due to improved manufacturing efficiencies and brand mix [13][34] Other Important Information - The company has a unique position in the market due to its in-house manufacturing capabilities, which allows for flexibility in sourcing and production [15][19] - Management highlighted the importance of the Lehigh business model, which provides recurring revenue and insights into market trends [43] Q&A Session Summary Question: How has the company navigated tariff impacts? - Management discussed implementing price increases and shifting production to mitigate tariff effects, noting that retailers were understanding of the price adjustments [10][11] Question: What growth opportunities exist for the XTRATUF brand? - The company is focusing on expanding XTRATUF's presence in the central U.S. and leveraging social media and influencer marketing to drive brand awareness [26][29] Question: What is the outlook for the Lehigh business? - The Lehigh division is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with plans to introduce new products and explore additional offerings like apparel [30][32]

Core Viewpoint - Smurfit Westrock (NYSE:SW) is considered a cheap stock with potential for growth over the next three years, supported by recent price target adjustments from major financial institutions [1][2][3]. Group 1: Price Target Adjustments - Morgan Stanley raised the price target for Smurfit Westrock to 4,000 GBp from 3,900 GBp while maintaining an Overweight rating [1]. - Truist maintained a Buy rating but reduced the price target to $49 from $50, citing anticipated challenges in packaging volumes due to limited promotions [2]. - Citi also lowered its price target to $48 from $49 while keeping a Buy rating, reflecting updated estimates in the packaging group for 2026 [3]. Group 2: Market Outlook - The packaging volumes are expected to face modest challenges in early 2026, although some consumer packaged goods companies are managing to increase volumes while maintaining price gains [2]. - Continued growth is anticipated for beverage cans in North America and Europe, indicating a positive trend in specific segments of the packaging market [2]. Group 3: Company Overview - Smurfit Westrock, along with its subsidiaries, specializes in the manufacturing, distribution, and sale of containerboard, corrugated containers, and other paper-based packaging products [4].