Key Points MercadoLibre and Netflix have significantly beaten the market so far this year. Both should benefit from their respective leadership positions in rapidly growing markets. 10 stocks we like better than MercadoLibre › Even amid the volatility caused by President Donald Trump's aggressive trade policies, broader equities are doing pretty well this year, and some companies have performed even better. That's the case with MercadoLibre (NASDAQ: MELI) and Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX): The former is u ...

Market Overview - The economy and inflation are likely to run warm to hot, creating a bifurcated market [1][2] - The Fed wants the economy to do well and has the opportunity to cut rates if needed, supporting the environment [3] Investment Opportunities - Opportunities exist in stocks that benefit from pricing power and are not overleveraged, especially with low valuations [2][3] - Focus on finding undervalued pockets likely to outpace inflation due to their ability to raise prices [3] Specific Sectors of Interest - Autolevered stocks and consumer discretionary retail are interesting sectors [5] - Auto OEMs are managing tariffs better than anticipated, with strong demand despite high prices [5] - Auto dealers benefit from a strong market and 40% of their volumes in parts and service, with low valuations [7] - Multiple retailers in consumer discretionary, including apparel and jewelry retail, are in turnaround situations with low valuations [8] Risk Considerations - Cost pressures from tariffs and inflation are already priced into some stocks [4][8] - Concerns over high auto prices exist, but demand remains strong [5]

Group 1 - Microsoft will increase the recommended retail price of several Xbox consoles in the U.S. starting in October due to "changes in the macroeconomic environment" [1] - The price increase does not apply to accessories such as controllers and headsets, and prices in other countries will remain unchanged [1] - This marks the second price increase for Microsoft's consoles in the U.S. this year, following similar actions by competitors Sony and Nintendo [3] Group 2 - The Xbox Series S will now start at $399, up from $379, while the 1TB version will cost $449 [3] - The Xbox Series X Digital console will now be priced at $599, reflecting a $50 increase, and the Xbox Series X with a disc drive will also see a $50 increase to $649 [3] - The most expensive version of the Xbox Series X, with 2TB of storage, will now cost $799, up from $729 [3]

Core Viewpoint - Analysts have upgraded Apple's stock to neutral and raised the price target by approximately $100, indicating that significant worst-case scenario risks have been mitigated [1] Risk Assessment - The two major risks that have been alleviated include tariffs and the Google antitrust case. Apple was particularly vulnerable to tariffs due to its role as a manufacturer and importer, but side deals have helped avoid the worst outcomes [2][3] - The Google antitrust case posed a risk to the payments Apple receives from Google, which account for 25% of its operating income. However, recent developments suggest that while these payments are deemed illegal, they will remain unaffected, thus removing a significant risk [3] Stock Valuation - Despite the upgrade from sell to neutral, analysts still consider Apple to be overvalued, trading at about 37 times earnings, which is a 24% premium to the S&P 500 and a 49% premium when excluding the MAG 7 [4][8] - The company is growing at a rate slower than the market, which raises concerns about sustaining its high valuation unless growth can be accelerated meaningfully [8][9] Innovation and Ecosystem - While Apple generates about half of its revenue from phones, the company has been recognized for its innovation, particularly in the app environment and the App Store, rather than in hardware alone [5][6] - The strength of the Apple ecosystem is highlighted as a key factor in customer loyalty, despite concerns about the company's slower growth compared to the market [7][10] Service Revenue Risks - A recent legal loss to Epic Games allows customers to process payments outside of the Apple ecosystem, which could impact the growth rate of Apple's services revenue, a crucial component of its business model [11][12]

Now, let's get an analyst take on Apple. They recently upgraded Apple's stock to a neutral, raised the price target by about a hundred bucks, though that's stating that many of the worst case scenario risks are gone. Let's bring in that analyst.Joining us now is Craig Moffett, founder, partner, and senior managing director at Moffett Nathansson. No sirens where you are, Craig. Correct.Just Hey, Brian. No, it's quiet here fortunately. Fantastic.All right. Um, what risks were there that are now gone. There we ...

Consumer Goods Sector - Consumer goods companies have been the worst affected by tariffs, with 42 companies reporting price hikes, 39 withdrawing or cutting guidance, and 18 taking a financial hit in the first quarter [3] - Consumer prices are expected to rise by 1.8% in the short run, equating to an average household income loss of $2,400, with apparel and footwear seeing the steepest hikes [4] - Price increases for leather products are projected at approximately 39%, 37% for apparel, and 21% for textiles [4] Automotive Sector - Motor vehicle prices are expected to rise by 12.4%, adding approximately $6,000 to the price of an average 2024 new car [5] - In the automotive sector, 18 companies withdrew or cut guidance, and 14 took a financial hit in the first quarter, with Tesla and General Motors being the most affected [6] - The auto industry is impacted by a 25% tariff on vehicle and auto parts imports, as well as a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum, affecting various auto components [7]

Core Insights - FedEx anticipates a $1 billion reduction in its bottom line this fiscal year due to tariffs and decreased demand from China to the U.S. [1] - The company reported a $150 million impact from tariffs in the first quarter, attributing revenue declines to the end of the de minimis provision for Chinese imports [1][2] Financial Performance - U.S. domestic package revenue rose by 8% to $12.7 billion, contributing to an overall revenue growth of 3% to $19.1 billion for the quarter [3] - Net income increased by 4% to $824 million, aided by a $200 million cost reduction through network adjustments [3] Volume Trends - Domestic average daily volumes grew by 5% to 13.9 million packages, while international export volumes fell by 3% to 1.1 million parcels per day, particularly affecting the China-to-U.S. route [4] - The China-to-U.S. route accounts for approximately 2.5% of FedEx's consolidated revenue and is its most profitable intercontinental trade lane [4] Outlook and Customer Sentiment - FedEx expects "low-to-moderate growth" in peak season average daily volumes compared to the previous year, with a high-single-digit increase in total peak volume due to an extra day in the holiday season [5] - The company remains cautiously optimistic about holiday season growth, driven by large B2C retailers and brands [5][6] - FedEx has not observed a "pull forward" of goods in its business segments, despite trends in the ocean freight industry [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran does not expect President Trump's tariffs to have a significant inflationary effect on the U.S. economy, differing from the majority opinion among Federal Open Market Committee voters [1][2]. Summary by Sections Inflation and Tariffs - Miran believes there is no material inflation resulting from tariffs, citing a lack of evidence and no significant difference in inflation rates between import-intensive core goods and overall core goods [2]. - He noted that if tariffs were driving inflation, one would expect to see a higher inflation rate in imports, which has not been observed [2]. Economic Outlook - Despite current inflation running above the Fed's 2% target, Miran anticipates stronger economic growth in the second half of the year, attributing weaker growth in the first half to uncertainties surrounding Trump's trade and tax policies [3]. - He also predicts that Trump's immigration policies could lead to disinflation in the economy, suggesting that an influx of immigrants could initially drive up shelter prices, but closing borders could have a disinflationary effect [3][4]. Federal Reserve Board Appointment - Miran was confirmed to the Fed Board of Governors and will serve until January 31, 2026, while taking an unpaid leave from his position as chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisors [5].

And he joins us now first on CNBC, newly confirmed Fed Governor Steven Myron. Our Steve Leeman, of course, also with us. It's great to see you, Mr.. Governor. First of all, congratulations on the confirmation and getting inside the Fed. Thank you and thanks for having me back.It's great to see you. Well, I I'm glad that you're here because I think a lot of people want to know why you desented first of all for 50 basis point cut when the rest of the committee voted on quarter point. Yeah, of course.Look, you ...

Let's get Wall Street's reaction. Metife Investment Management Chief Market Strategist Drew Mattis. What What is What is your take on the Myron view and now presence at the Fed.Uh I think Myron has has made some great points and I I think you know if people were worried about the Fed independence factor, you know, after that interview I think it it tells you that maybe those are all over overstated. In fact, if you look at the dot plot, it tells you there's no voting block of of people who are kind of, you ...