Core Viewpoint - The resilience of the economy is maintained by the "export grabbing" strategy, with the sustainability of economic recovery dependent on future export conditions and policy responses [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for February is at 50.2, indicating a return above the growth line, with a month-on-month increase of 1.1 percentage points, surpassing the average increase of 0.8 percentage points from 2015 to 2019 [1]. - The production index rose by 2.7 percentage points to 52.5%, while the new orders index increased by 1.9 percentage points to 51.1% [1]. - The export new orders index in February increased by 2.2 percentage points to 48.6%, driven by the "export grabbing" trend [2]. Group 2: Export Dynamics - The "export grabbing" mode has been accelerated since Trump's election, with a 10.1% year-on-year increase in U.S. imports from China in December 2024 and a 15.6% increase in Chinese exports to the U.S. [2]. - In January 2025, U.S. container imports reached a record 2.487 million TEU, with a month-on-month increase of 10.6% from China [2]. - The manufacturing sector's performance is bolstered by the "export grabbing," with the equipment manufacturing production index remaining above 54% in February [2]. Group 3: Price Trends - In February, the main raw material purchase prices and factory gate prices indices increased by 1.3 and 1.1 percentage points, respectively, providing positive guidance for the PPI data [3]. Group 4: Trade Tensions and Policy Outlook - The intensification of U.S.-China trade tensions since February raises concerns about the sustainability of the "export grabbing" window, with new tariffs announced by the U.S. [4]. - The manufacturing PMI's production and raw material inventory indices declined by 0.8 and 0.7 percentage points, indicating uncertainty in export performance [4]. - Current domestic policies are focused on stabilizing the economy, with monetary policy emphasizing coordination rather than aggressive measures, and fiscal policy prioritizing debt management [5][6].

文：任泽平团队 12月16日，国家统计局发布11月主要经济数据。 11月规模以上工业增加值同比5.4%，10月同比5.3%； 11月社会固定资产投资当月同比2.3%，10月同比3.4%； 11月社会消费品零售总额同比3%，10月同比4.8%； 11月基建投资（不含电力）当月同比3.3%，10月同比5.8%； 11月房地产开发投资当月同比-11.6%，10月同比-12.3%； 11月房地产销售面积同比3.2%，10月同比-1.6%； 11月房地产销售金额同比1.0%，10月同比-1.0%； 11月制造业投资当月同比9.3%，10月同比10.0%； 11月出口（以美元计）同比6.7%，10月同比12.7%；11月进口（以美元计）同比-3.9%，10 月同比-2.3%； 11月M2同比7.1%，10月同比7.5%； 11月社融同比7.8%，10月同比7.8%； 11月CPI同比0.2%，10月同比0.3%； 11月PPI同比-2.5%，10月同比-2.9%。 1 扩大内需，提振信心， 重在政策落地 11 月部分经济指标回暖，政策效果显现，主要是工业生产、汽车消费、商品房销售和M1。 以旧换新、置换、报废补贴等政策对 ...