丨证券研究报告丨 中国经济丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 当出口链回暖遭遇利润率回落 %% %% research.95579.com 1 ——1-11 月工业企业利润点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 11 月工业企业利润同比增速续降至-13.1%，与当月出口的走强出现明显分化，有部分行业利润 调整的影响在，但整体内需动能的趋弱也值得关注：11 月工业企业当月的库存、周转等指标均 在转差。年末，在外需支撑减弱，内需并未明显改善的情况下，企业经营压力或仍在不断累积， 且有进一步传导到就业市场的趋势。展望未来，2026 年上半年政策靠前发力实现"开门红"的 可能性仍较大，内需稳增长有望对冲外需不确定性，并推动企业利润长期企稳向好。 [Table_Author] 于博 SAC：S0490520090001 SFC：BUX667 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% [Table_Title 当出口链回暖遭遇利润率回落 2] ——1-11 月工业企业利润点评 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 2025 年 12 月 27 日，国家统计局公布数据：11 月规模以上工业企业利润总额同比 ...

证券研究报告 | 朝闻国盛 gszqdatemark 2025 12 16 年 月 日 朝闻国盛 11 月消费、投资大降的背后 今日概览 重磅研报 【宏观】11 月消费、投资大降的背后——20251215 【固定收益】基本面压力加大，待政策发力 ——20251215 【固定收益】地产跌幅拉大，食品价格多有回升——基本面高频数据跟 踪——20251215 作者 | 分析师 沈猛 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 执业证书编号：S0680522050001 | | | | | 邮箱：shenmeng@gszq.com | | | | | 行业表现前五名 | | | | | 行业 | 1 月 | 3 月 | 1 年 | | 通信 | 13.3% | 10.9% | 78.8% | | 国防军工 | 6.0% | 5.5% | 19.7% | | 非银金融 | 1.9% | 0.6% | 5.8% | | 机械设备 | 1.4% | 0.7% | 27.6% | | 有色金属 | 1.3% | 14.5% | 70.1% | | 行业表现后五名 | | | | | 行业 | 1 ...

Economic Performance - November industrial added value increased by 4.8% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 5% and the previous month's 4.9%[1] - The industrial export delivery value showed a year-on-year decline of 0.1%, a significant improvement from the previous month's -2.1%[1] - The service sector production index grew by 4.2% year-on-year, a slowdown of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month[2] Retail and Consumption - Retail sales in November increased by 1.3% year-on-year, down from 2.9% in the previous month[3] - The contribution of national subsidies to retail sales declined by approximately 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month[3] - Restaurant revenue growth slowed to 3.2% year-on-year, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, but still above the third quarter average of 1.4%[3] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment decreased by 2.6% year-on-year from January to November, a decline of 0.9 percentage points compared to the previous month[4] - Manufacturing investment maintained positive growth, while real estate investment fell to -15.9% year-on-year[4] - In November, fixed asset investment showed a year-on-year decline of 12.0%, stabilizing close to the previous month's -12.2%[4] Real Estate Market - November real estate sales area and sales value decreased by 25.1% and 17.3% year-on-year, respectively, with sales area showing a month-on-month increase of 9.3%[5] - New home prices in 70 major cities fell by 0.4% month-on-month, with first-tier cities leading the decline at -1.1%[5] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The weighted year-on-year growth of industrial and service production indicators was 4.4%, while the demand side showed a decline of 3.8%[6] - The gap between production and demand growth rates is the largest since March 2020, indicating increasing supply-demand imbalances[7]

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In November, social financing (社融) increased by 159.7 billion yuan year-on-year, a significant recovery compared to a decrease of 595.9 billion yuan in October[6] - The overall credit scale stabilized, but the willingness of residents to "leverage" remains low, with long-term loans decreasing by 290 billion yuan year-on-year in November[6] - Corporate bond financing demand was strong, with an increase of 178.8 billion yuan year-on-year in November, maintaining above 150 billion yuan for three consecutive months[6] Group 2: Policy Impact and Economic Trends - Policy support and strong financing demand in the technology sector are the main drivers of the recovery in social financing[6] - The impact of government bond financing on social financing has weakened, with a year-on-year decrease of 104.8 billion yuan in November, significantly less than the 564.3 billion yuan decrease in October[6] - The distribution of 500 billion yuan in government debt quotas to local governments is expected to provide effective support to the real economy[6] Group 3: Future Outlook and Risks - Despite the recovery in social financing, underlying demand issues persist, as indicated by declines in M1 and M2 money supply[6] - The widening gap between M1 and M2 suggests ongoing challenges in the economy[10] - Risks include potential economic recovery falling short of expectations amid escalating trade tensions and tighter overseas monetary policies[4]

Group 1 - The macroeconomic data continues to be disclosed, with the market focusing on the domestic economic situation. After the inflation data release, the financial data for October followed closely. The investment and financing demand appears relatively stable, while the money supply has slightly decreased. The market's expectations regarding the proactive policy measures this year and the economic data showing a trend of high first and low later are acknowledged, indicating that the overall macro impact is relatively limited. Additionally, recent adjustments in overseas markets, particularly regarding the development of AI, have led to collective adjustments among US tech companies, which has somewhat influenced the market structure last week, particularly affecting the TMT sector in A-shares [1][2]. Group 2 - Last week's market performance showed divergence, with a slight rebound in trading volume. The Shanghai Composite Index rebounded throughout the week, reaching a new high on Friday before retreating and closing below the 5-day moving average. The Shenzhen Component Index fluctuated around the short-term moving average, also closing below the 5-day moving average on Friday. The average daily trading volume for both markets was around 20 billion yuan, slightly increasing from the previous week. The main market hotspots were concentrated in the consumer sector. In terms of investment style, small-cap stocks represented by the CSI 2000 and large-cap blue-chip stocks represented by the SSE 50 achieved excess returns, while tech stocks lagged. The Shanghai Composite Index has been oscillating around the 4000-point mark, with a recent adjustment at the end of October, ultimately rebounding near the 20-day moving average. The Shenzhen Component Index has shown slightly weaker performance and is currently in a consolidation phase [2].

Economic Overview - Q3 2025 GDP growth is 4.8%, down from 5.2% in Q2, aligning with market expectations[1] - Industrial output in September increased by 6.5%, up from 5.2% in the previous month[1] - Retail sales growth in September is 3.0%, a decline from 3.4% in August[1] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment from January to September decreased by 0.5%, down from a previous growth of 0.5%[1] - Real estate investment fell by 13.9% year-on-year, worsening from a decline of 12.9%[1] - Broad infrastructure investment grew by 3.3%, down from 5.4%[1] Consumption Insights - Retail sales in September showed a continuous decline, marking the fourth consecutive month of decrease[5] - The impact of the "trade-in" policy is diminishing, contributing to lower consumer spending[5] - September's retail sales growth was below market expectations of 3.1%[5] Future Outlook - To achieve the annual GDP target of 5%, Q4 growth needs to reach at least 4.4%[4] - Short-term policies may increase but are expected to be more supportive rather than transformative[4] - Key areas to monitor include central bank actions, fiscal policy effectiveness, and export performance[4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China's economic transformation and emerging business models are key drivers for the sustained rise of the stock market, with traditional economic cycles clearing out and stabilizing [1] - The focus of Chinese policy is shifting towards development, with fiscal expansion supporting livelihoods, boosting consumption, and improving corporate cash flow [1] - The "anti-involution" movement reflects a change in economic governance thinking, which is expected to provide conditions for stabilizing long-term return on equity (ROE) [1] Group 2 - In the real estate sector, residential investment as a percentage of GDP is projected to fall to 5.4% by Q2 2025, aligning with levels seen in the US, Japan, and South Korea, indicating a significant reduction in economic drag [1] - The total repayment amounts for domestic debts of real estate companies are forecasted to decrease annually, with figures of 469.4 billion, 319.4 billion, and 313.9 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, suggesting that credit risk is largely cleared [2] - The manufacturing sector is experiencing a self-driven supply clearing, with capital expenditure decreasing by 10.6% year-on-year in Q1 2025, marking the lowest growth rate in nearly a decade [2] Group 3 - The implementation of more reasonable macroeconomic policies is effectively reducing tail risks in the economy and stabilizing investor expectations [2] - New economic opportunities are emerging in sectors such as AI and robotics, with accelerated capital expenditure, indicating a shift towards higher economic quality driven by transformation [2] - The "new three arrows" policy post-September 24, 2024, focuses on debt resolution, demand stimulation, and asset price stabilization, aiming to address the issue of insufficient domestic effective demand [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China's economic transformation and emerging business models are key drivers for the continuous rise of the stock market, with traditional economic cycles clearing and stabilizing [1] - The focus of Chinese policy is shifting towards development, with fiscal expansion supporting livelihoods, boosting consumption, and improving corporate cash flow [1] - The decline in traditional economic sectors is reducing their drag on the economy, particularly in the real estate sector, where residential investment as a percentage of GDP is expected to fall to 5.4% by Q2 2025, aligning with experiences from the US, Japan, and South Korea [1] Group 2 - According to Wind statistics, the total repayment amounts for domestic debts of real estate companies in 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 469.4 billion, 319.4 billion, and 313.9 billion respectively, indicating a gradual decrease in credit risk [2] - The "new three arrows" policy post-September 24, 2024, aims to address debt issues, stimulate demand, and stabilize asset prices through monetary easing and debt restructuring [2] - Emerging sectors such as AI and robotics are seeing accelerated capital expenditure, indicating the initial emergence of new economic opportunities [2]

Production - Industrial production growth in August was 5.2%, below the expected 5.8% and down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month[3] - The decline in industrial production was primarily due to a decrease in export growth, which turned negative at -0.4% for the first time this year, down 1.2 percentage points from last month[3] - The service production index growth fell to 5.6%, indicating a slowdown in the service sector[3] Investment - Fixed asset investment growth in August was -7.1%, a decline of 1.8 percentage points, with a cumulative growth of 0.5%, down 1.1 percentage points from the previous month[4] - Real estate investment saw a significant drop, with a monthly growth rate of -19.5% and a cumulative decline of -12.9%[4] - Infrastructure investment also decreased, with broad infrastructure cumulative growth at 5.4% and narrow infrastructure at 2.0%, both down from the previous month[4] Consumption - Retail sales growth in August was 3.4%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a cooling in consumer spending[5] - Dining consumption showed slight recovery with a growth rate of 2.1%, while overall goods retail growth was 3.6%, down 0.3 percentage points[5] - The consumption of gold and jewelry surged to 16.8%, doubling from the previous month, while other discretionary categories showed mixed results[6] Outlook - The economic slowdown in August reflects ongoing pressures in production, investment, and consumption, necessitating targeted policy interventions[7] - Future policy efforts are expected to focus on boosting investment and service consumption, with financial tools likely to support infrastructure investment[7] - The overall economic environment remains challenging, with continued pressure from declining exports and a cooling real estate market[7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In July, the manufacturing PMI declined marginally, and the economic momentum of the manufacturing industry also showed a marginal decline, indicating downward pressure on the overall economy. However, the Politburo meeting has set a positive policy tone, and the economy is expected to make steady progress. The government will speed up the issuance of government bonds, and incremental policies may be introduced when economic data shows continuous downward pressure [3][7]. - The Fed's Powell made relatively hawkish remarks at the FOMC meeting. The Fed's core goals are employment and inflation. The inflation data in June was pushed up by rising commodity prices, slightly exceeding expectations, adding uncertainty to the Fed's interest - rate cut timing [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Economic Marginal Decline, Policy Still Has Resilience 3.1.1 Manufacturing PMI Marginal Decline - In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, lower than market expectations, and below the boom - bust line for four consecutive months. The production index decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 50.5%, and the new order index decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 49.4%. The new export order index dropped to 47.1%. The raw material purchase price index and ex - factory price index increased by 3.1 and 2.1 percentage points respectively [4]. 3.1.2 Policy Tone Continues to Be Proactive and Effective - The Politburo meeting at the end of July continued the previous policy tone and further clarified the intensity and direction of policy efforts in the second half of the year. The decision - makers are aware of the economic situation, acknowledging that while the economy has shown good performance in the first half, there are still potential risks in the second half. The consumer demand is weak, and corporate profit growth is negative, with over - capacity in some industries [9]. - The policy space in the second half of the year is sufficient, and fiscal and monetary policies will work together. The government will speed up the issuance of government bonds, and there is still room for interest - rate cuts in the future, which may be implemented when overseas interest - rate pressure eases and domestic economic pressure increases. Service consumption may become a new engine for consumption growth in the second half of the year, and the stock market's allocation value is gradually emerging [12][17][19]. 3.1.3 Focus on US Inflation and Employment Data - The inflation data in June slightly exceeded market expectations, mainly driven by rising commodity prices. At the FOMC meeting, the Fed paused interest - rate cuts as expected, and there was internal disagreement. Powell's speech sent a hawkish signal, and the subsequent path of inflation is uncertain, so the expectation of interest - rate cuts may fluctuate with economic data [21]. 3.2 Key Economic Data and Events to Focus On 3.2.1 Domestic Key Events - Important policies include the release of the national childcare subsidy plan, market regulation of inferior and low - price competition, and strengthening the governance of key industries such as new - energy vehicles and photovoltaics. Key economic data shows that the total operating income of state - owned enterprises from January to June was 40.75 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.2%, and the manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [24][27]. 3.2.2 Overseas Key Events - In the US, the Treasury Department significantly increased its borrowing estimate for the third quarter. The Fed maintained the interest rate unchanged, and there were internal differences. There were also issues related to tariffs, employment, and economic growth. Geopolitical events included Trump's stance on Russia, and cease - fire agreements in Thailand and Cambodia [28][34]. 3.3 Key Events and Data to Focus on Next Week - The table lists key events and data to be released next week, including US treasury bill auction rates, eurozone PPI, US export and import volumes, and Chinese CPI and PPI data [36]. 3.4 Weekly Performance of Major Asset Classes - The report provides charts of domestic stock index trends, bond market trends, and various commodity index trends, including the CSI 500, CSI 1000, and various South China commodity indices [38].