1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In July, the manufacturing PMI declined marginally, and the economic momentum of the manufacturing industry also showed a marginal decline, indicating downward pressure on the overall economy. However, the Politburo meeting has set a positive policy tone, and the economy is expected to make steady progress. The government will speed up the issuance of government bonds, and incremental policies may be introduced when economic data shows continuous downward pressure [3][7]. - The Fed's Powell made relatively hawkish remarks at the FOMC meeting. The Fed's core goals are employment and inflation. The inflation data in June was pushed up by rising commodity prices, slightly exceeding expectations, adding uncertainty to the Fed's interest - rate cut timing [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Economic Marginal Decline, Policy Still Has Resilience 3.1.1 Manufacturing PMI Marginal Decline - In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, lower than market expectations, and below the boom - bust line for four consecutive months. The production index decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 50.5%, and the new order index decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 49.4%. The new export order index dropped to 47.1%. The raw material purchase price index and ex - factory price index increased by 3.1 and 2.1 percentage points respectively [4]. 3.1.2 Policy Tone Continues to Be Proactive and Effective - The Politburo meeting at the end of July continued the previous policy tone and further clarified the intensity and direction of policy efforts in the second half of the year. The decision - makers are aware of the economic situation, acknowledging that while the economy has shown good performance in the first half, there are still potential risks in the second half. The consumer demand is weak, and corporate profit growth is negative, with over - capacity in some industries [9]. - The policy space in the second half of the year is sufficient, and fiscal and monetary policies will work together. The government will speed up the issuance of government bonds, and there is still room for interest - rate cuts in the future, which may be implemented when overseas interest - rate pressure eases and domestic economic pressure increases. Service consumption may become a new engine for consumption growth in the second half of the year, and the stock market's allocation value is gradually emerging [12][17][19]. 3.1.3 Focus on US Inflation and Employment Data - The inflation data in June slightly exceeded market expectations, mainly driven by rising commodity prices. At the FOMC meeting, the Fed paused interest - rate cuts as expected, and there was internal disagreement. Powell's speech sent a hawkish signal, and the subsequent path of inflation is uncertain, so the expectation of interest - rate cuts may fluctuate with economic data [21]. 3.2 Key Economic Data and Events to Focus On 3.2.1 Domestic Key Events - Important policies include the release of the national childcare subsidy plan, market regulation of inferior and low - price competition, and strengthening the governance of key industries such as new - energy vehicles and photovoltaics. Key economic data shows that the total operating income of state - owned enterprises from January to June was 40.75 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.2%, and the manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [24][27]. 3.2.2 Overseas Key Events - In the US, the Treasury Department significantly increased its borrowing estimate for the third quarter. The Fed maintained the interest rate unchanged, and there were internal differences. There were also issues related to tariffs, employment, and economic growth. Geopolitical events included Trump's stance on Russia, and cease - fire agreements in Thailand and Cambodia [28][34]. 3.3 Key Events and Data to Focus on Next Week - The table lists key events and data to be released next week, including US treasury bill auction rates, eurozone PPI, US export and import volumes, and Chinese CPI and PPI data [36]. 3.4 Weekly Performance of Major Asset Classes - The report provides charts of domestic stock index trends, bond market trends, and various commodity index trends, including the CSI 500, CSI 1000, and various South China commodity indices [38].

Market Overview - The A-share market is currently experiencing fluctuations around the 3600-point level, reflecting increased divergence between bulls and bears [2][16][17] - The market is likely to enter a period of consolidation, with the index expected to oscillate around 3600 points to digest accumulated pressure [17] - Short-term market sentiment is influenced by profit-taking and external disturbances, while medium-term trends remain upward due to policy support and industry upgrades [5][17] Sector Performance - The semiconductor and AI application sectors have shown strength, indicating a potential shift towards technology stocks, particularly among small and mid-cap growth stocks [1][16] - The "Yalu River Downstream Hydropower" concept stocks have experienced significant volatility, with a recent pullback after a period of strong performance [11] - The healthcare sector, particularly innovative drugs and medical devices, is expected to see continued growth due to favorable policy changes and an aging population [10] Investment Strategy - Short-term strategies should focus on avoiding high-flying stocks and selectively reducing positions in sectors that have seen substantial gains, such as the Yalu River hydropower concept [3][17] - Mid-term investments should target growth sectors with elastic potential, including AI infrastructure, innovative pharmaceuticals, and humanoid robotics, driven by both policy and technological advancements [3][17] - The cultural media sector is also highlighted as a potential area for investment, particularly in gaming and interactive content, benefiting from advancements in AI technology [9] Economic Indicators - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring tariff negotiations and the overall liquidity environment, which are expected to positively influence the A-share market [3][17] - The upcoming fiscal policy window in Q3 and the timing of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy shift are critical factors to watch for market direction [3][17]

Economic Growth Predictions - Several foreign financial institutions have raised their forecasts for China's economic growth following the release of Q2 economic data, with many making consecutive adjustments within six months [1] - Morgan Stanley increased its 2025 growth forecast by 0.3 percentage points, while other institutions like DBS, Nomura, and Goldman Sachs raised their forecasts by 0.3, 0.5, and 0.6 percentage points respectively [1] Industrial Performance - The strong performance of the industrial sector, including electricity, construction, and manufacturing, has been a key driver of economic activity, maintaining growth for 15 consecutive months [3] - Policies such as the appliance replacement program and consumer subsidies have effectively boosted retail sectors, particularly in home appliances, smartphones, and automobiles [3] International Trade - Demand for Chinese exports from economies outside the U.S. remains robust, contributing to a trade surplus in the first half of the year [5] - High net inflows of trade funds and strong export data have been noted by foreign financial institutions [3] Manufacturing Sector - China's manufacturing sector is highlighted as a key strength, supported by a complete industrial system that provides solid backing for the domestic market and serves global markets [10] - The acceleration of high-end, intelligent, and green development in manufacturing is a focal point for foreign research reports [10] Technological Advancements - China is significantly enhancing the added value of its manufacturing, focusing on high-tech and green products such as semiconductors, artificial intelligence, electric vehicles, lithium batteries, and robotics [10] - The country is making substantial progress in global technological advancement and introducing high-quality new products to the global market [10] Economic Resilience - Foreign financial institutions describe China's economy with the term "resilience," attributing this to continuous policy support, improving macroeconomic conditions, and various micro-level highlights [12] - The economy is characterized as "flexible," capable of adapting to various domestic and international economic situations while maintaining stable growth [15][16]

Group 1 - Several foreign financial institutions and international investment banks have raised their economic growth forecasts for China following the release of the second-quarter economic data [1] - Morgan Stanley increased its 2025 economic growth forecast for China by 0.3 percentage points, while other institutions like UOB, Nomura, and Goldman Sachs raised their forecasts by 0.3, 0.5, and 0.6 percentage points respectively [2] - The strong performance of the industrial production sector, including electricity, construction, and manufacturing, has been a key driver of economic activity, maintaining growth for 15 consecutive months [4] Group 2 - The net inflow of funds from domestic goods trade remains high, with strong export data contributing positively [6] - Demand for Chinese exports from economies outside the United States has remained robust, supporting export scale and achieving a trade surplus in the first half of the year [7] - Continuous policy support aimed at boosting domestic consumption and enhancing market confidence has been crucial in attracting foreign investment and adjusting growth expectations [7]

Overall Performance - The second quarter of 2025 shows signs of recovery in the Chinese stock market, with A-shares stabilizing and MSCI China improving [2][3] - As of July 21, 2025, 1,528 A-share companies (30% of total, 25% of total market capitalization) issued earnings forecasts, with a net negative warning rate of -4.8%, an improvement from -18.8% in the previous quarter [2] - The MSCI China index, covering overseas-listed Chinese core assets, reported a net positive warning rate of +6.8%, the highest in four quarters, indicating a rebound in confidence from overseas investors [3] Sector Performance - Strong sectors include financial services, materials, and technology hardware, while consumer services, real estate, and software lag behind [5][6] - Financial services benefit from stable growth policies, materials see gains from commodity price recovery, and technology hardware thrives on innovation [5] - Real estate continues to face pressure due to inventory reduction and financing challenges, while consumer services are affected by slow recovery in domestic demand [5][6] Market Capitalization - Large-cap stocks show stability with a net negative warning rate of -1.4%, indicating strong risk resistance and high earnings certainty [7] - Small-cap stocks have significantly improved, with a net negative warning rate narrowing from -31.1% to -7.4%, reflecting recovery supported by policy and industry revival [7] - Mid-cap stocks perform moderately with a net negative warning rate of -12.7%, showing improvement but still lagging behind large-cap stocks [8] Earnings Forecast Adjustments - Sectors with upward adjustments include technology hardware, consumer staples, and pharmaceuticals, driven by increased orders and stable demand [9] - Sectors facing downward adjustments include semiconductors, utilities, consumer services, and real estate, reflecting cautious market sentiment [9] Investment Recommendations - Morgan Stanley identifies nine stocks to watch, primarily from materials, pharmaceuticals, and technology hardware sectors, based on positive earnings forecasts and analyst ratings [10][11] - Caution is advised for six stocks concentrated in real estate and certain consumer services, reflecting high earnings uncertainty [10][11] Future Outlook - The report suggests focusing on sectors benefiting from policy support, such as finance and infrastructure-related materials, as well as resilient consumer services and technology growth areas [12][13] - The overall recovery remains uneven, and investors are encouraged to prioritize quality stocks with stable earnings and reasonable valuations [13]

期货研究报告 金融研究 [Table_ReportType] 宏观月报 戴朝盛—宏观分析师 从业资格证号：F03118012 投资咨询证号：Z0019368 联系电话：0571-28132632 邮箱：daichaosheng@cindasc.com 震荡以待 [Table_ReportDate] 报告日期： 2025 年 6 月 4 日 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 国内：关税冲击下，我国经济拐头向下。随着中美日内瓦经贸会谈达成协 议，国内整体经济信心有所回升。5 月制造业 PMI 回升 0.5 个百分点至 49.5%，但绝对值低于荣枯线，说明经济仍在下行，只是速度明显放缓。往 后看，用于经济的子弹较多。专项债和超长期特别国债仍有大量余额有待发 行。政府手头较为充裕，根据金融机构和央行资产负债表，政府存款均远高 于往年。国家发改委发言人表示力争 6 月底前下达完毕今年全部"两重"建设 项目清单。预计 6 月将是集中发力期。 国外：关税和债务问题继续扰动市场。关税方面需关注内部问题。假如特 朗普上诉失败，那么特朗普极有可能想方设法通过其他路径加征关税。可能 的路径包括 5 种。122 条款和 ...

Export Data and Tariff Impact - In April, China's export growth showed a marginal slowdown, with a significant decline in exports to the US, indicating the actual impact of tariff increases is becoming evident [1][10] - The export growth structure can be categorized into three scenarios: overall export slowdown with simultaneous declines in both US and non-US exports, export decline to the US but an increase in non-US exports, and a decline in US exports with overall export growth improving due to non-US exports [2][12] - Industries facing significant revenue impact due to export declines include home appliances, non-ferrous metals, light industry, machinery, and textiles [2][14] Monthly Market Review - In May, risk assets generally experienced a recovery, with A-shares showing a preference for value styles, while sectors like environmental protection, pharmaceuticals, and military industries led the gains [3][21] - The market saw a mixed performance with fluctuations in risk appetite, influenced by tariff negotiations and concerns over US debt risks [3][21] June Market Outlook and Allocation Recommendations - The market is expected to continue its oscillation with a downward shift in the central tendency, influenced by tariff expectations and policy anticipation [4][5] - The recommendation is to increase allocation in low-volatility dividend stocks, focusing on sectors like electricity, banking, and consumer goods, while also considering trading opportunities in emerging technologies such as AI and robotics [5][6]

核心还是"抢出口"带动制造业景气度维持高位。 特朗普胜选之前，中国外贸企业已经开启"抢出口"模式，特朗普胜选后，"抢出口"进入加速。2024 年12月，美国自中国进口同比增长10.1%，中国对美出口同比增长15.6%。 2025年1月，美国集装箱进口量达到创纪录的248.7万TEU，其中美国从中国进口量环比增长 10.6%，同比增长10.2% 。中国1-2月港口集装箱吞吐量同比增长10.3%，货物吞吐量同比增长 2.8%。 2月PMI数据与高频数据显示经济韧性依旧。受抢出口影响，出口维持高增，经济 复苏的持续性取决于后续出口景气度和政策的应对措施。 2月制造业PMI为50.2，重回荣枯线水平之上，而且环比超季节性上升1.1个百分点，高于2015- 2019年春节次月平均环比涨幅的0.8个百分点 。 其中生产指数上行2.7个百分点（历史环比均值 1.8）至52.5%，新订单指数上行1.9个百分点（历史环比均值1.2）至51.1%。 另一方面是外部环境的压力尚未正式到来，今年政策的重要任务之一是应对外部摩擦导致的波动，年初中 美贸易摩擦刚刚开始，其对经济的影响尚未完全显现，政策需要保持定力，以待后续。未来"抢出口 ...