（文章来源：国家统计局） 国家统计局：11月CPI同比上涨0.7%，PPI同比下降2.2%。 ...

每经AI快讯，12月9日消息，乌克兰11月CPI同比上涨9.3%，预期为上涨9.8%；环比上涨0.4%。 ...

Report Title - Copper Weekly Report 20251207: Macro Upward, Sharp Increase in LME Copper Cancellation Ratio, Shanghai Copper Expected to Remain Strong [1] Core Viewpoint - With the macroeconomic upward trend and a sharp increase in the LME copper cancellation ratio, Shanghai copper is expected to remain strong [1] Summary by Directory Price Data - Copper spot circulation sources are tight, and the copper spot premium has risen [10] - This week, the LME copper 0 - 3M premium first rose and then fell, showing a week - on - week weakening [12] Fundamental Data - This week, the average price of the copper concentrate TC index decreased by $0.11/ton week - on - week to - $42.86/ton, still at a low level [14] - According to SMM, the inventory of copper concentrates at ten ports increased by 27,100 tons week - on - week to 750,200 tons [17] - The price difference between refined and scrap copper strengthened week - on - week [19] - China's electrolytic copper production in December is expected to increase by 5.96% month - on - month and 6.69% year - on - year [21] - The overseas market is strong, the copper export window is open, and some smelters are actively preparing for exports [23] - This week, the spot inventory of electrolytic copper and the bonded area inventory both continued to decrease week - on - week [25] - LME copper inventory is still increasing but the cancellation ratio has soared, while COMEX inventory continues to increase [27] - The operating rate of refined copper rods continued to decline week - on - week. The breakthrough of the market to a record high significantly suppressed the consumption of refined copper rods [28] - From November 1st to 30th, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market increased by 7% year - on - year and 6% compared with the same period last month [30] - The production of photovoltaic modules in December is expected to continue to decline [33] - The planned production volume of household air conditioners in December decreased by 22.3% compared with the actual production volume of the same period last year [36] Macroeconomic Data - China's RatingDog manufacturing PMI in November was 49.9 [40] - The CPI in the Eurozone rebounded to 2.2% in November [42] - Hassett said that now is a good time for another cautious interest rate cut [44]

Price Adjustment - The next price adjustment window for refined oil will open at 24:00 on December 8, following the "ten working days" principle. The last adjustment on November 24 saw domestic gasoline and diesel prices decrease by 70 yuan/ton and 65 yuan/ton respectively [1] CPI and PPI Data - The National Bureau of Statistics will release the CPI and PPI data for November on December 10. Huachuang Securities predicts that the CPI year-on-year growth rate will rebound from 0.2% last month to around 0.7%, primarily due to fluctuations in food prices. The food price index in November is expected to rise by 1.1% month-on-month, compared to a decrease of 2.7% in the same month last year, which was the lowest in the past decade [2] Financial Data Release - In addition to CPI and PPI, financial data for November, including new loans, M2, and social financing, is also expected to be released next week. Zhejiang Merchants Securities estimates that new RMB loans will increase by 300 billion yuan in November, a decrease of 280 billion yuan year-on-year, with a growth rate drop of 0.1 percentage points to 6.4%. Social financing is expected to increase by 2.2 trillion yuan, down approximately 342 billion yuan year-on-year, with a growth rate drop of 0.1 percentage points to 8.4%. M2 growth is projected at 8.0%, down 0.2 percentage points, while M1 growth is expected to be 5.3%, down 0.9 percentage points [3] Federal Reserve Meeting - The Federal Reserve will hold a monetary policy meeting next week. As of December 5, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December is 87%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 13%. Additionally, there is a 64% chance of a cumulative 25 basis point cut by January, a 9% chance of maintaining the rate, and a 27% chance of a cumulative 50 basis point cut [4] Stock Unlocking - Next week, 40 stocks will have their lock-up shares released, with a total market value of nearly 40 billion yuan based on Friday's closing prices. Ten companies have lock-up shares valued at over 1 billion yuan each, including Ningbo Ocean, Yiwei Lithium Energy, and others [5] New Stock Opportunities - Five new stocks are set to be issued next week, including one from the Shanghai main board, one from the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, one from the Shenzhen main board, and two from the Growth Enterprise Market. The specific issuance dates are December 8 for Youxun Co. and Nabichuan, December 9 for Yuanchuang Co., and December 12 for Xihua Technology and Tiansu Measurement [8]

每经AI快讯，12月6日，越南11月CPI同比增长3.58%，预期3.40%，前值3.25%。 ...

Group 1: Oil Price Adjustment - The next price adjustment window for refined oil is set for December 8, with a projected decrease of 60 CNY per ton for gasoline and diesel due to a -1.26% change in the average price of crude oil [2] - Market expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and stalled peace talks in the Russia-Ukraine conflict have weakened the outlook for Russian oil exports [2] - Despite OPEC+ agreeing to increase production in November, actual output has declined due to some member countries' production halts, leading to a supply shortfall [2] Group 2: CPI and PPI Data - The National Bureau of Statistics will release November CPI and PPI data on December 10, with an expected CPI year-on-year growth rate increase from 0.2% to around 0.7% [3] - The rise in CPI is attributed to fluctuations in food prices, particularly due to adverse weather conditions affecting vegetable supply [3] - Predictions indicate that the CPI's tail effect for next year will be approximately 0%, higher than this year's -0.4% [3] Group 3: Financial Data Release - November financial data, including new loans, M2, and social financing, is expected to be released next week, with new loans projected at 300 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 280 billion CNY [4] - Social financing is anticipated to increase by 2.2 trillion CNY, down by approximately 342 billion CNY year-on-year, with a growth rate of 8.4% [4] - M2 growth is expected to be 8.0%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points, while M1 growth is projected at 5.3%, down 0.9 percentage points [4] Group 4: Federal Reserve Meeting - The Federal Reserve is scheduled to hold a meeting next week, with an 87% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut [5] - Economic indicators suggest a cooling labor market, reinforcing expectations for a rate cut [5] - Projections for 2026 indicate potential economic growth of 2% to 2.5%, with uncertainty surrounding the Fed's rate cut trajectory [6] Group 5: New Stock Issuance - Five new stocks are set to be issued next week, raising approximately 4.297 billion CNY, with a total of 184 million shares [7] - Companies involved include Youxun Co., focusing on optical communication chips, and Nabachuan, specializing in thermal management for electric vehicle batteries [7] - Other companies include Yuanchuang, a major player in rubber tracks, and Xihua Technology, which manufactures specialized components for high-end equipment [7]

Core Viewpoint - The economic outlook for November indicates a decline in social financing and M2 growth rates, with fixed asset investment and real estate remaining low year-on-year. Consumer spending is expected to be weak, influenced by the decline in subsidy-related goods, while exports and production show resilience. CPI is anticipated to rise, creating a favorable environment for price recovery [2][3]. Group 1: Price Trends - CPI is expected to rise from 0.2% to around 0.7% year-on-year, primarily due to fluctuations in food prices, which are influenced by weather conditions affecting vegetable supply [3][10]. - The recent increase in food prices is likely to elevate the CPI baseline for next year, with the expected CPI tail effect for next year around 0%, higher than this year's -0.4% [3][11]. Group 2: Production and Exports - Industrial production is projected to grow at a rate of approximately 5.3% in November, supported by external demand [4][12]. - Exports are expected to increase by around 5% year-on-year in November, driven by a low base effect and resilient external demand, with manufacturing PMI new export orders showing improvement [4][13][14]. Group 3: Fixed Asset Investment and Real Estate - Fixed asset investment is anticipated to decline by about 2.4% year-to-date, with manufacturing investment down to 1.7% and real estate investment down to 15.5% [4][17]. - Real estate sales are expected to decrease by around 20% in November, with cumulative sales area down by 8.1% year-to-date [4][18]. Group 4: Consumer Spending - Retail sales growth is projected to be around 2.6% in November, with essential consumption growing at 4.0% and subsidy-related items declining by 3.0% [4][22]. - The automotive sector is showing weakness, with retail sales down by 11.6% year-on-year in November [4][23]. Group 5: Financial Indicators - New social financing is expected to be around 1.6 trillion yuan in November, a decrease of 650 billion yuan compared to the same period last year, with the growth rate of social financing stock expected to fall to about 8.3% [4][24]. - M2 growth is projected at around 8.0%, while M1 is expected to grow by approximately 5.6% [4][24].

Group 1 - Economic data, originally a tool for understanding the economy and formulating macro policies, has become a goal in itself, primarily aimed at boosting GDP [1] - The majority of economic statistical indicators, including GDP, were invented post-World War II, rooted in Keynesian macroeconomic theory [1] - Historical economic systems, such as China's self-sufficient agrarian economy, did not generate GDP as it is understood today, since GDP relies on market transactions [2] Group 2 - Recent adjustments to U.S. non-farm payroll data revealed a downward revision of 910,000 jobs, indicating a significant discrepancy in employment statistics [4] - The U.S. GDP grew from $21.1 trillion in 2020 to $29.7 trillion in 2024, a 41% increase, while China's GDP rose from $14.7 trillion to $18.9 trillion, a 29% increase, leading to a decrease in China's global GDP share [5] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the U.S. increased by a cumulative 23% from 2020 to 2024, compared to only 6% in China, necessitating adjustments to GDP comparisons between the two countries [7] Group 3 - Real GDP growth, which excludes price changes, is a more accurate measure of economic performance, revealing that from 2020 to 2024, the U.S. actual GDP was approximately $23.8 trillion while China's was about $18.3 trillion, indicating a 7 percentage point increase in China's GDP share [8][10] - The article suggests that the manipulation of economic data serves to maintain public confidence and uphold national prestige, particularly in the context of U.S. economic statistics post-pandemic [10]

Let's bring in Kevin Green now who joins me to get us across some more data and we just have hitting the tape of the 10hour. The ISM services numbers talk us through what you're seeing there as far as the PMIs today. Kevin.>> Yeah, actually if you're looking at ISM services PMIs are actually better than the street's expectations in two areas here. If you're looking at the overall number that came in at 52.6%, Street was looking for 52 even and that's actually better than what we saw last uh month at 52.4% h ...

One of the biggest scandals in finance is that trillions of dollars are being wagered daily on inaccurate economic data.About 40% of the CPI is estimated instead of measured.The Michigan consumer sentiment survey is politically corrupted by sample bias.The jobs data gets significant downward revisions months later.Everywhere you look, government data is painting the wrong picture about the economy.This is a big reason why the traditionalists have been wrong about their market predictions.It is hard to make ...