Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Aluminum has an expected upward space, alumina has support at the bottom, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Aluminum - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 21,625, down 5 from the previous trading day, up 325 from a week ago, up 940 from a month ago, and up 1,210 from three months ago. The trading volume was 245,135, and the open interest was 365,196. The closing price of LME Aluminum 3M was 2,862, up 19 from the previous trading day. The LME canceled warrant ratio was 7.22%, down 0.33% from the previous trading day [1] - **Spot Market**: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 607,000 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The SHFE aluminum ingot warrant was 63,800 tons, down 200 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum ingot inventory was 549,200 tons, up 900 tons from the previous trading day [1] - **Cost and Profit**: The pre - baked anode market price was 5,887, unchanged from the previous trading day. The electrolytic aluminum enterprise profit was 5,426.50, up 182.40 from the previous trading day. The aluminum spot import loss was 1,870.05, and the 3M import loss was 1,778.71 [1] Alumina - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2,783, down 4 from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 177,560, and the open interest was 419,574 [1] - **Spot Market**: The domestic average alumina price was 2,873, and the Lianyungang CIF price was 2,885 yuan/ton [1] - **Cost and Profit**: The profit of Shanxi alumina enterprises was - 94 [1] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 21,010, down 85 from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 4,610, and the open interest was 14,956 [1] - **Cost and Profit**: The theoretical profit of Baotai ADC12 was - 90 [1] Macroeconomic News - In China, the CPI in October increased by 0.2% year - on - year, the core CPI reached the highest level since March 2024, and the PPI increased month - on - month for the first time this year. In the US, the release of the CPI report was postponed, which may affect the Fed's decision on interest rates in December [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy is all 0, indicating a neutral trend [3]

Core Viewpoint - The lower-than-expected U.S. PPI data has no impact on the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) decision, with a 25 basis point rate cut next Wednesday being almost certain [1] Group 1 - Michael Brown, a senior research strategist at Pepperstone, indicates that the market pricing shows a slight probability of a 50 basis point cut if CPI data is also weak [1] - There are upward price risks due to tariffs, and the current level of policy tightening remains uncertain [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to restart the easing cycle at a more moderate pace during the September meeting [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that the recent PPI data from the U.S. supports the Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates, with a 100% probability of a rate cut indicated by CME's FedWatch tool following the data release [1][2] - The U.S. August PPI increased by 2.6% year-on-year and decreased by 0.1% month-on-month, both figures falling short of market expectations, marking the first month-on-month decline in four months [1][2] - The core PPI, excluding food and energy, also showed a year-on-year increase of 2.8% and a month-on-month decrease of 0.1%, again below market expectations [1][2] Group 2 - Following the PPI data release, President Trump criticized Fed Chair Powell, claiming there is "no inflation" and demanding immediate significant rate cuts [2] - A federal judge temporarily blocked Trump's attempt to dismiss Fed Governor Cook, allowing him to participate in the upcoming Fed meeting, which may complicate Trump's influence over the Fed's rate decisions [2][3] - Analysts suggest that the PPI data and previous employment figures indicate a strong possibility of rate cuts, which could have profound implications for the U.S. stock market and economic performance [4] Group 3 - Despite the high probability of rate cuts, there is internal debate on Wall Street regarding the implications of such actions, with some analysts warning that aggressive cuts could signal a significant economic slowdown [4][5] - JPMorgan's trading team leader expressed caution, noting that rate cuts might trigger a "buy the rumor, sell the news" reaction, potentially leading to profit-taking among investors [5] - Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan, remains cautious about the U.S. economic outlook, citing uncertainties related to tariffs, immigration, and geopolitical factors [6]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in Bitcoin and Ethereum prices is attributed to negative PPI data, leading to significant liquidations in the market, with Bitcoin dropping from $124,500 to a low of $117,180 and Ethereum from $4,788 to $4,451, currently showing signs of a rebound [1][4][6]. Market Overview - In the last 24 hours, a total of 224,738 traders were liquidated, resulting in a total liquidation amount of $1.031 billion [1][2]. - Bitcoin's price is currently experiencing a rebound, but this is viewed as a temporary correction rather than a new upward trend, with significant resistance at $120,600 and key support levels at $116,188 to $115,188 [6][10]. Bitcoin Analysis - Bitcoin has faced pressure from the 4-hour Bollinger Bands, leading to a sharp decline after a brief rally, with critical support at $112,000 [4]. - The market is currently assessing two potential scenarios based on upcoming economic data, including PPI and unemployment claims, which could influence market direction [7][8]. Ethereum Analysis - Ethereum broke through a significant support level, causing a broader market sell-off, with key support now at around $4,450 [7]. - Two potential scenarios are outlined: a bullish breakout above the mid-line resistance or a continuation of the downward trend testing lower support levels [8][12]. Altcoin Market - Following the declines in Bitcoin and Ethereum, altcoins also experienced corrections, with many major altcoins dropping by 4-6% [11]. - The altcoin market remains heavily influenced by Ethereum, with several projects showing strong performance, although concerns exist regarding their relative strength compared to Ethereum [11].

Group 1 - Economists Marc Sumerlin and David Zervos are confirmed candidates for the position of Federal Reserve Chair, both advocating for aggressive interest rate cuts [1][2] - President Trump has indicated a potential early appointment of the next Federal Reserve Chair, narrowing the candidate list to three or four individuals [1] - Sumerlin believes that a 50 basis point rate cut is an obvious choice given the current yield structure, weak labor market, and stable inflation [2][3] Group 2 - Zervos argues that the Federal Reserve should decisively ease monetary policy to prevent a slowdown in the labor market and potentially create an additional one million jobs [4][5] - Zervos has consistently advocated for a 50 basis point cut in the federal funds rate during the last three Federal Reserve meetings [5] - Both candidates emphasize the importance of having individuals with market experience involved in monetary policy decisions [5]

Group 1 - Economists Marc Sumerlin and David Zervos have expressed interest in becoming the next Federal Reserve Chair, advocating for aggressive interest rate cuts [1][2] - President Trump has indicated he may appoint the next Fed Chair sooner than expected, narrowing the candidate list to three or four individuals [1] - Sumerlin believes that a 50 basis point rate cut is an obvious choice given the current yield structure, weak labor market, and stable inflation [2][3] Group 2 - Sumerlin emphasizes the importance of the Fed's independence, which has been questioned due to Trump's public criticism of current Chair Powell [3][4] - Zervos argues that the Fed should not be deterred by higher-than-expected Producer Price Index (PPI) data and should decisively ease monetary policy to prevent labor market slowdown [5][6] - Zervos supports a potential rate cut of 200 basis points, contingent on economic narratives surrounding AI and supply-side deflationary pressures [6]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights a significant increase in the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for July, with the annual rate rising from 2.4% to 3.3% and the monthly rate increasing from 0.0% to 0.9%. The core PPI also saw a substantial rise from 2.6% to 3.7% annually and from 0.0% to 0.9% monthly [2] - The increase in PPI and core PPI may indicate a potential rebound in future Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, suggesting inflationary pressures could persist [2] - Following the PPI data release, market expectations for the Federal Reserve to resume interest rate cuts in September have diminished, introducing uncertainty into future monetary policy directions [2] Group 2 - The article suggests that despite a seemingly stable economic environment under President Trump's tariff and fiscal policies, significant uncertainties remain in international politics and trade relations, which could lead to unexpected events [3] - The outlook for the U.S. economy is portrayed as less optimistic than some economic data might suggest, indicating potential challenges ahead [3]

Core Viewpoint - The S&P 500 index futures declined by 0.4% following the release of the PPI data, reaching a pre-market low [1] Group 1 - The decline in S&P 500 index futures indicates market reaction to economic data [1]

Core Viewpoint - The S&P 500 index futures declined by 0.4% following the release of the Producer Price Index (PPI) data, reaching a pre-market low point [1] Group 1 - The decline in S&P 500 index futures indicates market reaction to economic data [1]

Market Performance - The three major indices closed in the green, with both the Shanghai and Shenzhen indices reaching new annual closing highs[1] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.34% to close at 3647.55 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.46% to 11291.43 points[1] - The ChiNext Index saw a significant gain of 1.96%, closing at 2379.82 points[1] - Total trading volume exceeded 1.8 trillion yuan, indicating strong market activity[1] Sector Performance - The majority of the Shenwan I-level industries experienced gains, with the top performers being Electric Equipment (+2.04%), Communication (+1.95%), and Computer (+1.94%)[7] - Conversely, the banking sector declined by 1.01%, and both Oil & Petrochemicals and Coal sectors saw minor decreases of 0.41% and 0.35%, respectively[7] Market Breadth - A total of 4,188 stocks advanced, representing 75.88% of the market, while 1,068 stocks declined[5] - The market saw 85 stocks hit the daily limit up, while 12 stocks hit the limit down[5] Economic Indicators - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained flat year-on-year in July, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 3.6%[2]