【财经要闻】 1、据新华社，中共中央政治局委员、国务院副总理何立峰12月9日晚在京会见世界贸易组织总干事伊维 拉。何立峰表示，中方坚定支持以世界贸易组织为核心的多边贸易体制，反对单边主义、保护主义。中 国将积极参与世界贸易组织改革，持续推动贸易和投资自由化便利化，与各方一道维护开放、稳定、可 预期的国际贸易环境。 2、据智通财经，12月10日，财政部官网公布《关于2025年到期续作特别国债（一期和二期）发行工作 有关事宜的通知》（《通知》）。《通知》明确，财政部拟发行2025年到期续作特别国债（一期）、 （二期）（以下分别称第一期、第二期，统称两期国债），发行日期为2025年12月12日，其中，第一期 为10年期固定利率附息债，第二期为15年期固定利率附息债，第一期发行面值4000亿元，第二期发行面 值3500亿元。"2025年到期续作的7500亿元特别国债将在全国银行间债券市场面向有关银行定向发行， 期限品种包括10年期4000亿元、15年期3500亿元。"财政部有关负责人表示，发行过程不涉及社会投资 者，个人投资者不能购买。2025年到期续作特别国债是原特别国债的等额滚动发行，仍与原有资产负债 相对应，不 ...

格隆汇12月10日｜国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟解读2025年11月份PPI数据：11月PPI环比上涨 0.1%，连续两个月上涨。本月PPI环比运行的主要特点： 一是国内部分行业需求季节性增加带动其价格 上涨。各地"迎峰度冬"开始，煤炭、燃气需求季节性增加，煤炭开采和洗选业价格环比上涨4.1%，煤炭 加工价格上涨3.4%，燃气生产和供应业价格上涨0.7%。入冬以来，防寒保暖产品进入消费旺季，毛织 造加工价格上涨0.6%，羽绒制品加工价格上涨0.2%。 二是输入性因素影响国内有色金属和石油相关行 业价格走势分化。国际有色金属价格上行带动国内有色金属矿采选业价格环比上涨2.6%，有色金属冶 炼和压延加工业价格上涨2.1%，其中铜冶炼、金冶炼、铝冶炼价格分别上涨2.9%、1.4%和0.2%。国际 油价下行影响国内石油和天然气开采业价格下降2.4%，精炼石油产品制造价格下降2.2%。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Aluminum has an expected upward space, alumina has support at the bottom, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Aluminum - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 21,625, down 5 from the previous trading day, up 325 from a week ago, up 940 from a month ago, and up 1,210 from three months ago. The trading volume was 245,135, and the open interest was 365,196. The closing price of LME Aluminum 3M was 2,862, up 19 from the previous trading day. The LME canceled warrant ratio was 7.22%, down 0.33% from the previous trading day [1] - **Spot Market**: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 607,000 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The SHFE aluminum ingot warrant was 63,800 tons, down 200 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum ingot inventory was 549,200 tons, up 900 tons from the previous trading day [1] - **Cost and Profit**: The pre - baked anode market price was 5,887, unchanged from the previous trading day. The electrolytic aluminum enterprise profit was 5,426.50, up 182.40 from the previous trading day. The aluminum spot import loss was 1,870.05, and the 3M import loss was 1,778.71 [1] Alumina - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2,783, down 4 from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 177,560, and the open interest was 419,574 [1] - **Spot Market**: The domestic average alumina price was 2,873, and the Lianyungang CIF price was 2,885 yuan/ton [1] - **Cost and Profit**: The profit of Shanxi alumina enterprises was - 94 [1] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 21,010, down 85 from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 4,610, and the open interest was 14,956 [1] - **Cost and Profit**: The theoretical profit of Baotai ADC12 was - 90 [1] Macroeconomic News - In China, the CPI in October increased by 0.2% year - on - year, the core CPI reached the highest level since March 2024, and the PPI increased month - on - month for the first time this year. In the US, the release of the CPI report was postponed, which may affect the Fed's decision on interest rates in December [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy is all 0, indicating a neutral trend [3]

Core Viewpoint - The lower-than-expected U.S. PPI data has no impact on the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) decision, with a 25 basis point rate cut next Wednesday being almost certain [1] Group 1 - Michael Brown, a senior research strategist at Pepperstone, indicates that the market pricing shows a slight probability of a 50 basis point cut if CPI data is also weak [1] - There are upward price risks due to tariffs, and the current level of policy tightening remains uncertain [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to restart the easing cycle at a more moderate pace during the September meeting [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that the recent PPI data from the U.S. supports the Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates, with a 100% probability of a rate cut indicated by CME's FedWatch tool following the data release [1][2] - The U.S. August PPI increased by 2.6% year-on-year and decreased by 0.1% month-on-month, both figures falling short of market expectations, marking the first month-on-month decline in four months [1][2] - The core PPI, excluding food and energy, also showed a year-on-year increase of 2.8% and a month-on-month decrease of 0.1%, again below market expectations [1][2] Group 2 - Following the PPI data release, President Trump criticized Fed Chair Powell, claiming there is "no inflation" and demanding immediate significant rate cuts [2] - A federal judge temporarily blocked Trump's attempt to dismiss Fed Governor Cook, allowing him to participate in the upcoming Fed meeting, which may complicate Trump's influence over the Fed's rate decisions [2][3] - Analysts suggest that the PPI data and previous employment figures indicate a strong possibility of rate cuts, which could have profound implications for the U.S. stock market and economic performance [4] Group 3 - Despite the high probability of rate cuts, there is internal debate on Wall Street regarding the implications of such actions, with some analysts warning that aggressive cuts could signal a significant economic slowdown [4][5] - JPMorgan's trading team leader expressed caution, noting that rate cuts might trigger a "buy the rumor, sell the news" reaction, potentially leading to profit-taking among investors [5] - Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan, remains cautious about the U.S. economic outlook, citing uncertainties related to tariffs, immigration, and geopolitical factors [6]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in Bitcoin and Ethereum prices is attributed to negative PPI data, leading to significant liquidations in the market, with Bitcoin dropping from $124,500 to a low of $117,180 and Ethereum from $4,788 to $4,451, currently showing signs of a rebound [1][4][6]. Market Overview - In the last 24 hours, a total of 224,738 traders were liquidated, resulting in a total liquidation amount of $1.031 billion [1][2]. - Bitcoin's price is currently experiencing a rebound, but this is viewed as a temporary correction rather than a new upward trend, with significant resistance at $120,600 and key support levels at $116,188 to $115,188 [6][10]. Bitcoin Analysis - Bitcoin has faced pressure from the 4-hour Bollinger Bands, leading to a sharp decline after a brief rally, with critical support at $112,000 [4]. - The market is currently assessing two potential scenarios based on upcoming economic data, including PPI and unemployment claims, which could influence market direction [7][8]. Ethereum Analysis - Ethereum broke through a significant support level, causing a broader market sell-off, with key support now at around $4,450 [7]. - Two potential scenarios are outlined: a bullish breakout above the mid-line resistance or a continuation of the downward trend testing lower support levels [8][12]. Altcoin Market - Following the declines in Bitcoin and Ethereum, altcoins also experienced corrections, with many major altcoins dropping by 4-6% [11]. - The altcoin market remains heavily influenced by Ethereum, with several projects showing strong performance, although concerns exist regarding their relative strength compared to Ethereum [11].

Group 1 - Economists Marc Sumerlin and David Zervos are confirmed candidates for the position of Federal Reserve Chair, both advocating for aggressive interest rate cuts [1][2] - President Trump has indicated a potential early appointment of the next Federal Reserve Chair, narrowing the candidate list to three or four individuals [1] - Sumerlin believes that a 50 basis point rate cut is an obvious choice given the current yield structure, weak labor market, and stable inflation [2][3] Group 2 - Zervos argues that the Federal Reserve should decisively ease monetary policy to prevent a slowdown in the labor market and potentially create an additional one million jobs [4][5] - Zervos has consistently advocated for a 50 basis point cut in the federal funds rate during the last three Federal Reserve meetings [5] - Both candidates emphasize the importance of having individuals with market experience involved in monetary policy decisions [5]

Group 1 - Economists Marc Sumerlin and David Zervos have expressed interest in becoming the next Federal Reserve Chair, advocating for aggressive interest rate cuts [1][2] - President Trump has indicated he may appoint the next Fed Chair sooner than expected, narrowing the candidate list to three or four individuals [1] - Sumerlin believes that a 50 basis point rate cut is an obvious choice given the current yield structure, weak labor market, and stable inflation [2][3] Group 2 - Sumerlin emphasizes the importance of the Fed's independence, which has been questioned due to Trump's public criticism of current Chair Powell [3][4] - Zervos argues that the Fed should not be deterred by higher-than-expected Producer Price Index (PPI) data and should decisively ease monetary policy to prevent labor market slowdown [5][6] - Zervos supports a potential rate cut of 200 basis points, contingent on economic narratives surrounding AI and supply-side deflationary pressures [6]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights a significant increase in the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for July, with the annual rate rising from 2.4% to 3.3% and the monthly rate increasing from 0.0% to 0.9%. The core PPI also saw a substantial rise from 2.6% to 3.7% annually and from 0.0% to 0.9% monthly [2] - The increase in PPI and core PPI may indicate a potential rebound in future Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, suggesting inflationary pressures could persist [2] - Following the PPI data release, market expectations for the Federal Reserve to resume interest rate cuts in September have diminished, introducing uncertainty into future monetary policy directions [2] Group 2 - The article suggests that despite a seemingly stable economic environment under President Trump's tariff and fiscal policies, significant uncertainties remain in international politics and trade relations, which could lead to unexpected events [3] - The outlook for the U.S. economy is portrayed as less optimistic than some economic data might suggest, indicating potential challenges ahead [3]

Core Viewpoint - The S&P 500 index futures declined by 0.4% following the release of the PPI data, reaching a pre-market low [1] Group 1 - The decline in S&P 500 index futures indicates market reaction to economic data [1]