作者：何浩，华尔街见闻 周四，经济学家Marc Sumerlin确认他自己是美联储主席候选人之一，他表示对该职位有兴趣，并认为 激进降息是合适的。华尔街老兵、Jefferies首席市场策略师David Zervos也是美联储主席候选人之一，同 日表态称支持大幅降息。 本周三，特朗普表示可能稍微提前任命下任美联储主席，人选缩小到三四位。美国财政部长贝森特同日 表示，计划考虑多达11位人选。Zervos与贝莱德债券策略师Rick Rieder是所有候选人中市场背景比经济 学背景更浓厚的。 在接替现任美联储主席鲍威尔的竞争中，Sumerlin和Zervos的利率立场在方向上与美国总统特朗普一 致。特朗普多次敦促美联储放松利率政策，主张最多降息3个百分点，但由鲍威尔领导的联邦公开市场 委员会自2024年12月降息以来一直维持基准利率不变。 Sumerlin：下调利率是一个容易的决定 Sumerlin曾在小布什政府期间担任美国国家经济委员会副主任，并在2000年总统竞选期间担任其经济顾 问。他曾参与小布什标志性的《经济增长与减税协调法案》以及《萨班斯-奥克斯利法案》相关法规制 定，但他没有任何美联储相关工作经验。近年来 ...

Market Performance - The three major indices closed in the green, with both the Shanghai and Shenzhen indices reaching new annual closing highs[1] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.34% to close at 3647.55 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.46% to 11291.43 points[1] - The ChiNext Index saw a significant gain of 1.96%, closing at 2379.82 points[1] - Total trading volume exceeded 1.8 trillion yuan, indicating strong market activity[1] Sector Performance - The majority of the Shenwan I-level industries experienced gains, with the top performers being Electric Equipment (+2.04%), Communication (+1.95%), and Computer (+1.94%)[7] - Conversely, the banking sector declined by 1.01%, and both Oil & Petrochemicals and Coal sectors saw minor decreases of 0.41% and 0.35%, respectively[7] Market Breadth - A total of 4,188 stocks advanced, representing 75.88% of the market, while 1,068 stocks declined[5] - The market saw 85 stocks hit the daily limit up, while 12 stocks hit the limit down[5] Economic Indicators - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained flat year-on-year in July, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 3.6%[2]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - July CPI year-on-year is 0%, better than the expected -0.1%, indicating stability compared to last year [1] - Month-on-month CPI decreased by 0.1%, weaker than seasonal trends, with food prices showing significant weakness [1] - Core CPI increased by 0.8% year-on-year, the highest in 1.5 years, driven by demand recovery and the end of commodity subsidies [1] Group 2: PPI Analysis - July PPI year-on-year is -3.6%, below the expected -3.4%, consistent with the previous value [2] - Month-on-month PPI decreased by 0.2%, showing a slight improvement of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [2] - Specific industries like oil extraction and processing showed positive month-on-month changes, while non-metallic mining and manufacturing declined [2] Group 3: Macro Economic Outlook - The low CPI and PPI indicate that overall inflation remains low, allowing for a moderately loose monetary policy [3] - The bond market is expected to see a gradual upward correction in convertible bond valuations due to increased demand for fixed income [3] - The issuance pace of local government special bonds may accelerate, creating temporary supply pressure, but strong demand from long-term stable funds remains [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9] Core Viewpoints - The low PPI data indicates that enterprises are absorbing part of the impact of tariffs. The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September is rising, and Fed Chairman Powell may be removed. Geopolitical factors are still changeable. Gold and silver are recommended for hedging by buying on dips, and shorting the gold-silver ratio at high levels is advised [1][8][9] Summary by Related Contents Macro Data - On July 16, 2025, the US 6 - month PPI annual rate was 2.3%, the lowest since September 2024, and the monthly rate was 0%, the lowest since January. The EU proposed a nearly 2 - trillion - euro (2.3 trillion US dollars) budget for the next seven years [1] Futures Market - On July 16, 2025, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 778.00 yuan/gram, closed at 776.66 yuan/gram, down 0.48% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night - session closed at 779.28 yuan/gram, up 0.36% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver main contract opened at 9,195.00 yuan/kilogram, closed at 9,152.00 yuan/kilogram, down 0.79% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 764,716 lots, and the open interest was 430,521 lots. The night - session closed at 9,162 yuan/kilogram, up 0.02% from the afternoon close [2] Treasury Yields and Spreads - On July 16, 2025, the US 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.50%, up 0.07% from the previous trading day. The 10 - year and 2 - year spread was 0.58%, up 3 basis points from the previous trading day [3] Exchange Positions and Volume Changes - On July 16, 2025, in the Au2508 contract, long positions decreased by 3,078 lots, and short positions decreased by 300 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts was 330,492 lots, up 14.60% from the previous trading day. In the Ag2508 contract, long positions decreased by 7,400 lots, and short positions decreased by 6,340 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 998,507 lots, up 0.78% from the previous trading day [4] ETF Holdings - On the previous trading day, the gold ETF holdings were 950.79 tons, up 3.15 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF holdings were 14,819.29 tons, down 36.73 tons from the previous trading day [5] Arbitrage Tracking - On July 16, 2025, the domestic gold premium was 12.10 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 598.89 yuan/kilogram. The ratio of the Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold and silver main contract prices was about 84.86, up 0.31% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold - silver ratio was 87.81, up 1.81% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Data - On July 16, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 27,070 kilograms, down 9.97% from the previous trading day. The silver trading volume was 483,798 kilograms, down 1.22% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 8,366 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 6,600 kilograms [7]

PPI数据公布后，美元指数DXY短线走低十余点，现报98.62。 美元指数 ...

7月16日周三，黄金市场延续了周二的疲软态势，现货金回落至每盎司3327美元附近，较前一交易日下 跌0.5%，期金也录得0.7%的跌幅。表面上看，美国6月CPI数据符合市场预期，并未带来显著超预期的 通胀惊喜，按理说应对金价构成支撑。然而，黄金走势的转弱，背后隐藏着更复杂的逻辑组合，尤其与 市场对关税政策、美联储路径以及避险需求之间微妙关系的重构密切相关。 尽管CPI环比上涨0.3%，同比仍维持在2.7%的水平，通胀并未"失控"，但这已经是近半年以来最强的一 次月度增长，市场对通胀再度抬头的担忧开始升温。同时，特朗普最新在社交平台上发文，再次强调希 望美联储降息，称"消费者物价很低，应该降息"，这无疑向市场施加了一种政策预期的暗示。然而，目 前的物价路径并不完全支持这种激进降息的诉求，因此市场定价并未明确转向。 市场对于特朗普可能进一步加征关税的预期正在升温。他提出对来自欧盟和墨西哥的商品征收高达30% 的关税，给投资者传递出一个矛盾信号：一方面关税可能推动输入型通胀，增加物价压力；另一方面， 美联储如果对此作出反应而非预判，则可能迟滞降息进程。因此，黄金作为对冲政策不确定性的工具， 在预期分歧中一时失去了明 ...

分析师：金价温和上扬 市场等待PPI数据反应 金十数据7月16日讯，金价在周三温和上涨，因美元走软，投资者正等待美国与其贸易伙伴之间的贸易 谈判更加明朗，以及另一份PPI通胀数据可能为美联储的政策前景提供的进一步指引。独立分析师Ross Norman表示："目前美元在美国PPI数据公布前走软，因交易商在近期的上涨后采取谨慎的立场，这令 金价温和上扬。"不过，Kedia Commodities的主管Ajay Kedia表示，尽管特朗普更新了新的关税，但黄 金市场已多次跌破3400美元的关口。此前，澳新银行在一份报告中预计："短期内，金价可能会盘整， 然后在年底前再次上涨至每盎司3600美元。" ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a decline in silver prices, with the latest closing price at $37.70 per ounce, down 1.13% from the previous day [1] - As of July 15, the silver ETF holdings decreased to 14,856.02 tons, a reduction of 110.22 tons from the previous day, reflecting a bearish sentiment in the market [2] - The recent CPI data showed a month-on-month increase of 0.3% in June, which is the largest rise since January, leading to slight adjustments in market expectations regarding potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2][3] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's cautious stance on inflation suggests that the Fed may remain careful regarding interest rate cuts, despite the moderate inflation data [3] - The upcoming PPI data is anticipated to provide further market guidance, with potential implications for interest rate expectations and gold prices [3] - The silver market experienced volatility, opening at $38.16, reaching a high of $38.39, and closing at $37.70, indicating a significant downward movement after an initial rise [4]

2/10年期美债收益率利差大致持平，报+48.227个基点，PPI数据发布后显著拉升、并在20:54刷新日高至 +51.942个基点。 周四（5月15日）纽约尾盘，美国10年期国债收益率下跌8.91个基点，报4.4472%，全天持续走低，北京 时间20:30发布美国零售销售等数据后曾短暂转涨，01:13刷新日低至4.4374%。 两年期美债收益率跌8.79个基点，报3.9629%，14:00开始下跌， 03:23刷新日低至3.9587%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The release of the U.S. PPI data has resulted in minimal short-term fluctuations in the DXY dollar index [1] Group 1 - The PPI data is a significant economic indicator that can influence market sentiment and currency valuation [1] - The dollar index (DXY) reflects the strength of the U.S. dollar against a basket of currencies, and its stability post-PPI release suggests limited immediate market reaction [1]