Market Overview - The S&P 500 experienced a 19% decline from its February highs to late April lows in the previous year, followed by a 17% increase for the year [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has seen significant volatility, with a unique structure comprising only 30 components, making it less stable compared to the S&P 500 [1] Key Events Impacting the Market - A major factor in the market's decline was the "Liberation Day" tariffs announced by former President Donald Trump, which threatened tariffs on nearly 100 nations, significantly impacting international trade [1] - The market rebounded quickly after the president backed down from these tariffs, highlighting the sensitivity of market reactions to geopolitical events [1] Sector-Specific Insights - The rise of the Dow from 25,000 to 50,000 was largely driven by financial and technology stocks, including major players like Goldman Sachs, Apple, Microsoft, Visa, Amex, and JPMorgan [1] - Concerns exist regarding the potential for a bubble in the AI sector, particularly affecting companies like Apple and Microsoft, which are heavily involved in this space [1] Economic Factors - Financial services companies are facing risks from inflation, which peaked at 8.5% in March 2022, leading to increased loan defaults [1] - Current economic conditions are described as "hot," with GDP growth forecasts suggesting continued strength in the economy [1] Geopolitical Considerations - Ongoing geopolitical instability, particularly related to the war in Ukraine, is contributing to inflation concerns, especially in the energy sector [1] - The U.S. military presence in the Middle East may further complicate market stability, as geopolitical tensions can lead to rapid market corrections [1]

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Economic Data - U.S. retail sales were unchanged month-over-month in December, weaker than expectations of +0.4% [2] - Core retail sales, excluding motor vehicles and parts, were also unchanged month-over-month, below the expected +0.3% [2] - The U.S. Q4 employment cost index rose +0.7% quarter-over-quarter, weaker than the anticipated +0.8% [2] - The U.S. import price index increased by +0.1% month-over-month in December, in line with expectations [2] Labor Market - Nonfarm payrolls expanded by 130,000 in January, significantly exceeding the anticipated 55,000 [4] - The unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, lower than the expected 4.4% [4] Stock Market Performance - Wall Street's major indexes closed mixed, with S&P Global (SPGI) dropping over -9% after weaker-than-expected Q4 adjusted EPS [3] - AI-infrastructure stocks like Western Digital (WDC) and Seagate Technology Holdings (STX) also retreated, with declines of over -8% and -6% respectively [3] - Datadog (DDOG) surged more than +13% after reporting stronger-than-expected Q4 results [3] Earnings Reports - Companies in the S&P 500 are expected to post an average +8.4% increase in quarterly earnings for Q4 compared to the previous year [8] - Prominent companies such as Cisco Systems (CSCO), McDonald's (MCD), and T-Mobile US (TMUS) are set to release their quarterly results [8] International Market Trends - The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is down -0.34% due to concerns over AI disruption, particularly affecting technology stocks [9] - Italy's December Industrial Production fell -0.4% month-over-month, stronger than expectations of -0.6% [11] - China's consumer inflation eased in January, with food prices declining 0.7% year-over-year [12]

Core Insights - Deposit account rates are declining, but competitive returns on certificates of deposit (CDs) can still be locked in, with the best CDs offering rates above 4% [1] Group 1: Current CD Rates - The best short-term CDs (six to 12 months) currently offer rates around 4% to 4.5% APY, with Marcus by Goldman Sachs offering the highest rate of 4% APY on its 1-year CD [2] - Historical trends show that average one-year CD rates fell to around 1% APY by 2009, with five-year CDs at less than 2% APY following the 2008 financial crisis [2] - By 2013, average rates on 6-month CDs dropped to about 0.1% APY, while 5-year CDs returned an average of 0.8% APY due to the Federal Reserve's policies [3] Group 2: Historical Context - Between 2015 and 2018, the Federal Reserve's gradual rate increases led to a slight improvement in CD rates, marking the end of nearly a decade of ultra-low rates [4] - The COVID-19 pandemic prompted emergency rate cuts by the Fed, causing CD rates to fall to new record lows [4] - Following the pandemic, inflation led the Fed to hike rates 11 times between March 2022 and July 2023, resulting in higher APYs on savings products, including CDs [5] Group 3: Future Trends - As of September 2024, the Fed began cutting the federal funds rate, leading to a steady decline in CD rates from their peak, although they remain high by historical standards [6] - Traditionally, longer-term CDs offered higher interest rates, but currently, the highest average CD rate is for a 12-month term, indicating a flattening or inversion of the yield curve [6][7] Group 4: Choosing the Best CD - When selecting a CD, factors such as goals, type of financial institution, account terms, and inflation should be considered to ensure the best fit for individual needs [8]

Core Insights - The article discusses the current state of money market accounts (MMAs) and highlights the importance of finding competitive rates as interest rates decline following recent Federal Reserve rate cuts [1][4]. Group 1: Current MMA Rates - The national average interest rate for money market accounts is 0.56%, while top rates can exceed 4% APY, comparable to high-yield savings accounts [2]. - TotalBank currently offers the highest money market account rate at 4.01%, which is over seven times the national average [7]. Group 2: Interest Rate Trends - Money market account rates are closely linked to the federal funds rate set by the Federal Reserve, which influences deposit account rates [3]. - Following a target range of 5.25%–5.50% maintained by the Fed, three rate cuts have led to a decline in money market rates, with expectations for further declines in 2025 [4]. Group 3: Considerations for MMA Investment - Money market accounts are attractive for savers due to their elevated rates, safety, and liquidity, making them suitable for those with short-term savings goals or emergency funds [5][6]. - For conservative savers, MMAs provide FDIC insurance and principal protection, while long-term savers may need to consider riskier investments for higher returns [6].

Company Overview - Warpaint London PLC (WPNTF) is a UK-based cosmetics company established in 1992, selling products in major retail stores across the UK, US, and EU, as well as online internationally [1] Financial Position - The company has no debt and pays a dividend, indicating a strong financial position [1] Industry Insights - There is a bullish sentiment towards the commodities sector due to years of under-investment leading to supply deficits in key commodities such as gold, silver, uranium, and copper [1] - Reckless monetary and fiscal policies are expected to drive inflation higher, providing additional support for commodities [1] - The long lead time required for mine construction suggests that it will take several years to address the supply shortfall, creating a long-term investment opportunity in the commodities space [1]

Company Overview - Warpaint London PLC (WPNTF) is a UK-based cosmetics company established in 1992, selling products in major retail stores across the UK, US, and EU, as well as online internationally [1] Financial Position - The company has no debt and pays a dividend, indicating a strong financial position [1] Industry Insights - There is a bullish sentiment towards the commodities sector due to years of under-investment leading to supply deficits in key commodities such as gold, silver, uranium, and copper [1] - Reckless monetary and fiscal policies are expected to drive inflation higher, providing additional support for commodities [1] - The long lead time required for mine construction suggests that it will take several years to address the supply shortfall, creating a long-term investment opportunity in the commodities space [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the volatility of asset prices in the first half of the year and the potential for stabilization in the second half, emphasizing the importance of monitoring price fluctuations and controlling leverage in the futures market [2][30]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Price Movements - Recent fluctuations in precious metals have shown a sharp rebound after a significant drop, with gold prices recently rising back to nearly $5,000, indicating daily volatility exceeding $100 [2][30]. - The current phase for metals is characterized as a consolidation stage, which may last 3-4 months unless unforeseen events occur [2][30]. - Technical analysis suggests resistance for gold at approximately $5,000 and support at $4,400, with potential silver prices ranging from $56 to $73.5 if the gold-silver ratio rises to 68-78 [2][30]. Group 2: Fund Positioning and Market Data - As of February 3, 2024, net long positions in U.S. futures for gold decreased by 23.1% to 291 tons, marking the lowest level in 15 weeks, while net long positions for silver fell by 38% to 698 tons, the lowest since March 5, 2024 [6][12]. - Platinum's net long positions dropped by 42% to 2 tons, the lowest in 38 weeks, indicating a general bearish sentiment among market participants regarding metal prices [6][11]. - The article highlights that despite a 26% decline in net long positions for gold since the beginning of the year, gold prices have still increased by 64.4%, suggesting strong physical demand outpacing futures market dynamics [16][17]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The article posits that the current commodity market dynamics differ from historical patterns, suggesting that the overall direction remains upward despite widespread discussion about commodities [31]. - The potential for U.S. interest rate cuts amidst rising inflation presents a significant challenge for the Federal Reserve, indicating a shift from a previously stable economic environment to a more competitive global landscape [32]. - The article concludes that the market's focus on short-term interest rate predictions may overlook longer-term economic growth prospects, particularly in light of rising unemployment rates and inflation concerns [32].

February 10, 2026 04:49 PM GMT Asia Economics | Asia Pacific The Viewpoint: Marketing Feedback – Where We Agree, Where We Disagree Investors are constructive on Asia. But investors are focused mainly on tech, while we see a broadening out to non-tech. That means investors are more bullish on North Asia ex China in a relative context. For China, investors are bullish on the micro but recognize the macro challenges. Key Takeaways In this report, we offer our thoughts on the following key debates that we have ...

Market Overview - Asian shares showed moderate gains, with the Hang Seng in Hong Kong up 0.3% and the Shanghai Composite index also rising 0.3% [1][2] - South Korea's Kospi increased to 5,346.34, while Australia's S&P/ASX 200 climbed 1.5% to 8,999.20 and Taiwan's Taiex jumped 1.7% [2] US Retail and Economic Indicators - A report indicated that US retailers earned less than expected during the holiday season, leading to concerns about consumer spending momentum [3][4] - Mizuho Bank noted a weakening demand in eight out of thirteen retail categories, including clothing and furniture [3] - The S&P 500 fell 0.3% to 6,941.81, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.1% to 50,188.14, and the Nasdaq composite decreased by 0.6% to 23,102.47 [3] Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve is expected to consider the latest economic data when deciding on interest rates, with potential cuts on hold due to inflation concerns [5] - A weakening job market could prompt the Fed to resume interest rate cuts more quickly [5] Company Earnings Reports - Coca-Cola's stock fell 1.5% after its revenue for the latest quarter did not meet analysts' expectations, and its growth forecast was lower than anticipated [6] - S&P Global's stock dropped 9.7% following a disappointing profit forecast, amid concerns about competition from AI-powered companies [7] - Warner Bros. Discovery's stock rose 2.2% after Paramount increased its offer to acquire the company [8] Acquisition Details - Paramount is raising its offer for Warner Bros. Discovery by $0.25 per share for each quarter the buyout remains pending, demonstrating confidence in regulatory approval [9] - Paramount also plans to pay $2.8 billion to assist Warner Bros. Discovery in exiting its deal with Netflix [9] Commodity Prices - US benchmark crude oil increased by $0.53 to $64.49 per barrel, while Brent crude rose by $0.52 to $69.32 per barrel [10] - The price of gold rose by 0.8%, and silver increased by 2% [10]