Company Overview - Warpaint London PLC (WPNTF) is a UK-based cosmetics company established in 1992, selling products in major retail stores across the UK, US, and EU, as well as online internationally [1] Financial Position - The company has no debt and pays a dividend, indicating a strong financial position [1] Industry Insights - There is a bullish sentiment towards the commodities sector due to years of under-investment leading to supply deficits in key commodities such as gold, silver, uranium, and copper [1] - Reckless monetary and fiscal policies are expected to drive inflation higher, providing additional support for commodities [1] - The long lead time required for mine construction suggests that it will take several years to address the supply shortfall, creating a long-term investment opportunity in the commodities space [1]

Company Overview - Warpaint London PLC (WPNTF) is a UK-based cosmetics company established in 1992, selling products in major retail stores across the UK, US, and EU, as well as online internationally [1] Financial Position - The company has no debt and pays a dividend, indicating a strong financial position [1] Industry Insights - There is a bullish sentiment towards the commodities sector due to years of under-investment leading to supply deficits in key commodities such as gold, silver, uranium, and copper [1] - Reckless monetary and fiscal policies are expected to drive inflation higher, providing additional support for commodities [1] - The long lead time required for mine construction suggests that it will take several years to address the supply shortfall, creating a long-term investment opportunity in the commodities space [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the volatility of asset prices in the first half of the year and the potential for stabilization in the second half, emphasizing the importance of monitoring price fluctuations and controlling leverage in the futures market [2][30]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Price Movements - Recent fluctuations in precious metals have shown a sharp rebound after a significant drop, with gold prices recently rising back to nearly $5,000, indicating daily volatility exceeding $100 [2][30]. - The current phase for metals is characterized as a consolidation stage, which may last 3-4 months unless unforeseen events occur [2][30]. - Technical analysis suggests resistance for gold at approximately $5,000 and support at $4,400, with potential silver prices ranging from $56 to $73.5 if the gold-silver ratio rises to 68-78 [2][30]. Group 2: Fund Positioning and Market Data - As of February 3, 2024, net long positions in U.S. futures for gold decreased by 23.1% to 291 tons, marking the lowest level in 15 weeks, while net long positions for silver fell by 38% to 698 tons, the lowest since March 5, 2024 [6][12]. - Platinum's net long positions dropped by 42% to 2 tons, the lowest in 38 weeks, indicating a general bearish sentiment among market participants regarding metal prices [6][11]. - The article highlights that despite a 26% decline in net long positions for gold since the beginning of the year, gold prices have still increased by 64.4%, suggesting strong physical demand outpacing futures market dynamics [16][17]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The article posits that the current commodity market dynamics differ from historical patterns, suggesting that the overall direction remains upward despite widespread discussion about commodities [31]. - The potential for U.S. interest rate cuts amidst rising inflation presents a significant challenge for the Federal Reserve, indicating a shift from a previously stable economic environment to a more competitive global landscape [32]. - The article concludes that the market's focus on short-term interest rate predictions may overlook longer-term economic growth prospects, particularly in light of rising unemployment rates and inflation concerns [32].

February 10, 2026 04:49 PM GMT Asia Economics | Asia Pacific The Viewpoint: Marketing Feedback – Where We Agree, Where We Disagree Investors are constructive on Asia. But investors are focused mainly on tech, while we see a broadening out to non-tech. That means investors are more bullish on North Asia ex China in a relative context. For China, investors are bullish on the micro but recognize the macro challenges. Key Takeaways In this report, we offer our thoughts on the following key debates that we have ...

Market Overview - Asian shares showed moderate gains, with the Hang Seng in Hong Kong up 0.3% and the Shanghai Composite index also rising 0.3% [1][2] - South Korea's Kospi increased to 5,346.34, while Australia's S&P/ASX 200 climbed 1.5% to 8,999.20 and Taiwan's Taiex jumped 1.7% [2] US Retail and Economic Indicators - A report indicated that US retailers earned less than expected during the holiday season, leading to concerns about consumer spending momentum [3][4] - Mizuho Bank noted a weakening demand in eight out of thirteen retail categories, including clothing and furniture [3] - The S&P 500 fell 0.3% to 6,941.81, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.1% to 50,188.14, and the Nasdaq composite decreased by 0.6% to 23,102.47 [3] Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve is expected to consider the latest economic data when deciding on interest rates, with potential cuts on hold due to inflation concerns [5] - A weakening job market could prompt the Fed to resume interest rate cuts more quickly [5] Company Earnings Reports - Coca-Cola's stock fell 1.5% after its revenue for the latest quarter did not meet analysts' expectations, and its growth forecast was lower than anticipated [6] - S&P Global's stock dropped 9.7% following a disappointing profit forecast, amid concerns about competition from AI-powered companies [7] - Warner Bros. Discovery's stock rose 2.2% after Paramount increased its offer to acquire the company [8] Acquisition Details - Paramount is raising its offer for Warner Bros. Discovery by $0.25 per share for each quarter the buyout remains pending, demonstrating confidence in regulatory approval [9] - Paramount also plans to pay $2.8 billion to assist Warner Bros. Discovery in exiting its deal with Netflix [9] Commodity Prices - US benchmark crude oil increased by $0.53 to $64.49 per barrel, while Brent crude rose by $0.52 to $69.32 per barrel [10] - The price of gold rose by 0.8%, and silver increased by 2% [10]

Economic Indicators - The U.S. unemployment rate improved last month, with employers adding 130,000 jobs, exceeding economists' expectations [2][5] - The strong job data raises hopes for a solid U.S. economy, potentially driving profits for companies, particularly in the energy and raw-material sectors [3][4] Market Reactions - The S&P 500 initially rose but finished with a slight dip of less than 0.1%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 66 points (0.1%) and the Nasdaq composite fell 0.2% [1] - Stocks in the energy sector, such as Exxon Mobil, saw gains, with Exxon climbing 2.6% [4] Federal Reserve Implications - Stronger-than-expected job data may delay interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could negatively impact stock prices and other investments [4][5] - Traders adjusted their expectations for when the Fed might begin cutting interest rates, pushing bets further into the summer [5] Treasury Yields - Following the jobs report, the yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.17% from 4.16%, while the two-year Treasury yield increased to 3.51% from 3.45% [6]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump has nominated Kevin Warsh as the new Fed chair, expressing a desire for an ambitious economic growth rate of 15%, which is rarely achieved outside of wartime [1][8]. Economic Growth Metrics - The president did not clarify the specific metric or timeframe for the 15% growth target, but typically, economic growth is measured as the inflation-adjusted annual rate of GDP growth [2]. - Historically, real GDP growth averages between 2%-3% annually, with double-digit growth occurring only in extreme situations, such as post-catastrophe recoveries [3]. Historical Context - The last instance of GDP growth reaching Trump's predicted level was during the reopening of businesses after COVID-19 restrictions, while the last year with growth exceeding 15% was 1943, during World War II [4]. Fed's Role and Challenges - As Fed chair, Warsh will have the ability to influence the economy through the fed funds rate, which impacts borrowing costs; however, his influence is limited as he is one of 12 voting members [7]. - The Fed can stimulate economic growth by lowering interest rates, but it must also manage its mandate to control inflation, which remains above the Fed's 2% target [6][8].

Core Insights - Wage growth has slowed, with private-sector salaries rising only 0.7% in Q4 2025, the slowest increase since Q2 2021, indicating a shift in the job market favoring employers [1][1][1] - Year-over-year wage growth stands at 3.4%, consistent with Q1 but down from Q3, reflecting a tougher job market as job openings have decreased and unemployment has risen [1][1][1] - The Employment Cost Index's weak growth in Q4 aligns with a broader trend of a softening labor market, leading to reduced pressure on employers to raise wages [1][1][1] Economic Implications - The slowdown in wage growth may prompt the Federal Reserve to consider cutting interest rates to stimulate hiring and mitigate rising unemployment [1][1][1] - Despite the slowdown, average wages are still growing faster than inflation, which rose 2.7% in 2025, suggesting a positive outlook for workers in terms of purchasing power [1][1][1] - Wage growth has not been evenly distributed, with higher-income households seeing a 3.7% increase in after-tax wages, while lower-income households only experienced a 0.9% increase [1][1][1] Job Market Context - The job market is currently facing challenges due to tariffs and uncertainty in trade policy, which have led businesses to reduce hiring and expansion plans [1][1][1] - A forthcoming report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics is expected to provide further insights into job creation and unemployment rates for January 2026 [1][1][1]

Let's start with the these Fed officials chiming in because this was interesting Danielle. This made headlines. You got Beth Hammock saying rates could be on hold for quite some time and then you had Lorie Logan echoing that saying current policy stance appropriate she says. I mean what did you make of that Danielle? That does not sound like two Fed officials who are you know jumping here itching to to cut rates because of this labor market. >> Uh it certainly does not. Um, and I would venture to say that t ...

Group 1 - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 50,000 for the first time, attributed to the administration's trade policies [1][2] - President Trump predicts the Dow will reach 100,000 by the end of his term, emphasizing his confidence in the market [3] - Analysts highlight that cooling inflation and corporate strength are significant factors driving the recent market rally, rather than solely political influences [4][5] Group 2 - The market's ability to reach the 100,000 target will depend on sustained growth in the technology sector, which is currently facing resistance [7] - Financial experts expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates later this year, which could further support market appreciation [4]