You know what it's like being inside the Fed. You understand the independence of the Fed. But what have you made of this scenario as somebody that's now left the Fed behind and works principally as a private markets investor.Yeah, look, I think the most direct relationship between Fed policy and technology investing and venture capital investing is the path of interest rates. And in particular, what that means is, you know, interest rates have such a huge impact on valuations and returns in the private mark ...

Bring in show music, please. Today on SquawkPod, late night votes in the House. Speaker Mike Johnson.What I wanted everybody to know about the one big beautiful bill is it it it wasn't a magic trick. This was I think it was Vince Lombardi that said victory loves preparation. And his comments on the Epstein files, freeze the rent.An affordability focus boosted New York mayoral candidate Zoron Mandani, but the soaring cost of living hits beyond the big apple. Former New York housing commissioner and former HU ...

Markets are still betting that inflation will ease enough to allow central banks to continue cutting interest rates this year. But there are signs that a resurgence could be more of a risk than anticipated. https://t.co/ImYJl8FtHz ...

Labor Market Analysis - The private sector's employment growth is weaker than perceived, with a significant portion of recent job growth occurring in the public sector [1] - Underlying private sector data indicates a stagnant labor market, making it susceptible to economic shifts [4] - Firms are hesitant to hire, even with strong earnings, impacting the labor market [11] - Immigration is not identified as a primary cause of labor market issues, as unemployment rates for new college graduates remain high [11] Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - A potential July rate cut is under consideration, with the understanding that delaying until September may not be significantly different [13][22] - Dissent within the FOMC is viewed as healthy for policy debate and decision-making [16][17] - The Federal Reserve aims to act proactively, considering long and variable lags in monetary policy [24] Tariffs and Inflation - Economic theory suggests that one-time tariffs result in a one-time price effect, not persistent inflation, unless amplified by other mechanisms [26] - A rule of thumb suggests that a 10% tariff is typically absorbed in thirds by suppliers, firms, and consumers, resulting in a 0.3% impact on the inflation rate for a few months [29] - Continuous waves of increasing tariffs pose a greater risk to inflation than a single, uniform tariff [35] - Market-based inflation expectations are closely monitored, with less emphasis on consumer surveys, to gauge the impact of tariffs and other factors [43]

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said worries about hiring in the private sector have driven his call for the central bank to cut rates this month https://t.co/12Wo7vgCjS ...

Fed Chair Jay Powell responding to White House criticism over the fence renovation project, writing in a letter to the director of the Office of Management and Budget, We take seriously the responsibility to be good stewards of public resources as we fulfill the duties given to us by Congress on behalf of the American people. Joining us now from washington, Mike shepherd. Shep, as we said at the start of this program, this story just won't die.You going to keep this one alive. Because in a way, they are try ...

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Economic Outlook & Monetary Policy - Retail sales show positive signs, indicating the economy isn't declining sharply [1][4] - The market anticipates the Federal Reserve will cut rates this year, but the timing remains uncertain [5] - Some believe the Fed should cut rates aggressively to stimulate the economy, potentially requiring more than 25-50 basis points [6] - Neutral interest rates are likely higher than current estimates, possibly around 3-35%, suggesting less need for aggressive rate cuts to stimulate the economy [7] - Calibrating rates to the underlying economic dynamics is crucial [8] Tariffs & Inflation - Companies have significant cash reserves (over $25 trillion outside of tech) and free cash flow to absorb tariff costs [2] - External producers may be absorbing some tariff costs, similar to 2019 [3] - The worst fears surrounding tariffs may be averted, but price pressures are still emerging [3] - The Federal Reserve's ability to look past short-term price pressures is crucial [3] Housing Market - Regulation at the state and local level is a major factor driving elevated home prices [9] - Addressing regulation is essential for long-term affordability in the housing market [9] - Cyclical solutions include increasing supply and reducing mortgage rates, but these won't fully address the regulatory impact [9] - The prospective buyers index is at a new cycle low [8] Capital Expenditure (CAPEX) & Resources - The industry is focused on capital expenditure, particularly related to AI and data centers [10] - Data centers require significant resources, especially water, highlighting the need for desalination [11] - Desalination requires energy, emphasizing the interconnectedness of energy and resource management [11][12] - Innovation in desalination to reduce energy consumption is crucial [12]

All right, welcome back. Well, earlier today we got another pretty good read on the economy, but it's kind of another day where the bond market is not really moving. The 10-year yield is at 4.46% and as we noted yesterday, that's the same price that bond yields were at back in November.So, what's it going to take to get borrowing costs on the move again. Either way, Rick Santelli is in Chicago with the bond report. Rick, yeah, you nailed it.Not only was 445 an important area historically, that's where we we ...

Market Outlook - Goldman Sachs Research anticipates tariff rates to continue climbing throughout the year [2] - The market is pricing in a gradual increase in tariffs, with companies managing margins and sustaining earnings growth [3] - Continued earnings growth is considered the most important factor for the market [3] - There's a possibility of companies passing on tariff costs, potentially leading to a slight increase in inflation [3][4] - The S&P 500 target is 6,600 by year-end, representing approximately 5% upside [5] Risk Assessment - The biggest risk to the market is interest rates, with uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's actions [5] - Elevated uncertainty means the distribution of risks for asset prices is still pretty wide [6] Sector Performance - AI software basket is up more than 30% year-to-date, with a continued strong outlook [6] - Market breadth is narrow, with the median S&P 500 company still more than 10% below its high [7][8] - A catch-up in market performance is more likely than a continuation of the current outperformance [8]