Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack said she saw no need to change US interest rates for months ahead after the central bank cut borrowing costs at its last three meetings, the Wall Street Journal reported on Sunday.Hammack opposed recent rate cuts as she is more worried about elevated inflation than the potential labor-market fragility that prompted officials to lower rates by a cumulative 75 basis points over the past few months, the report added.Hammack told the Journal that the Fed ...

Why can’t the government drop ALL mortgage rates to 2% for every single family home as the primary residence ONLY.Wouldn’t that solve the housing crisis?Grant Cardone (@GrantCardone):America should have the lowest interest rates in the world! Trump will fix it!It makes no sense the wealthiest country with the dominant currency has interest rates higher than 34 other countries. ...

🚨 UPDATE: Chance of another rates cut dropped to 22%, per CME group. https://t.co/DXt6GQNc1A ...

Core Insights - The traditional retirement savings benchmark of $1 million is becoming outdated, with experts now recommending a target of $1.5 million to ensure a comfortable retirement [3][4] - The shift in retirement age to 67 and economic changes necessitate a reevaluation of retirement savings strategies, as the old 4% rule may no longer suffice [2][4] Retirement Savings Guidelines - Financial advisors previously suggested saving multiples of salary: three times by age 40, six times by 50, and over eight times by 65, translating to approximately $340,000 to $850,000 for those earning between $40,000 and $100,000 annually by ages 61-64 [2] - The new recommendation of $1.5 million allows for an annual retirement income of $60,000, providing a buffer for rising costs and unexpected expenses [3] Factors Influencing Retirement Costs - Location significantly impacts retirement budgets, as living costs vary across the U.S., necessitating personalized savings goals [6] - Marital status affects Social Security benefits, with married couples able to maximize benefits, but survivors face income loss upon a spouse's death [6] - Retirees must account for healthcare, housing, and lifestyle expenses, ensuring their savings can cover these without financial strain [6] Legislative Impact - The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) signed in July 2025 introduces temporary tax deductions for seniors, potentially exempting about 90% of retirees from paying income tax on Social Security [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Cleveland Fed president expresses skepticism about the recent cooler inflation reading for November, suggesting it should be taken "with a grain of salt" [1] Group 1 - The Cleveland Fed president will have a vote on interest rates in 2026, indicating her future influence on monetary policy decisions [1]

Global Economic Overview - A higher nominal world has emerged, driven by persistent fiscal deficits, rising protectionism, and competitive currency devaluations, leading to a higher equilibrium for inflation and interest rates [2][20] - Global activity remained resilient in Q4 2025, despite renewed tariff pressures and persistent geopolitical tensions [4][20] - The US economy experienced moderate growth with easing inflation pressures and rising policy and trade uncertainty [4][8] United States - In Q4 2025, the US economy showed slowing but still positive activity, with disinflationary trends and intensifying policy and trade uncertainty [8][11] - Payroll gains decelerated, unemployment rose to 4.4%, and job cuts surged, indicating a softening labor market [8][11] - The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points in October and December, concluding quantitative tightening [11] Europe - Economic conditions in Europe improved modestly, with the HCOB Composite PMI rising to a 17-month high of 52.5 in October, although recovery remained uneven [12][15] - Eurozone headline CPI held steady at 2.1% in October and 2.2% in November, complicating the ECB's ability to guide markets towards a clearer easing trajectory [12][15] - The quarter reaffirmed a fragile but stabilizing growth trajectory, constrained by tight financial conditions and external trade headwinds [15] China and Emerging Markets - China maintained a GDP growth target of around 5% for 2025, despite facing weak domestic demand and property stress [16][20] - The People's Bank of China (PBoC) maintained an accommodative stance, relying on targeted liquidity injections to stabilize the property sector [16][20] - Asian equities modestly outperformed global peers, supported by strong AI-related demand and solid earnings [19][20] Investment Conclusions - The global economy continues to show resilience despite trade frictions and policy uncertainty, with a low probability of a deep US recession [20] - A moderate re-acceleration in global activity could revive cyclical inflation, emphasizing the importance of corporate earnings [20] - The investment strategy prioritizes capital preservation while using volatility and dispersion as opportunities for active management [20]

Group 1: Trade Policies and Economic Impact - The newly elected U.S. president's potential implementation of large tariffs on Canadian imports is a significant concern for Canadian businesses in 2025 [2][6] - Trump's focus on trade deficits may lead to substantial changes in global trade dynamics, with tariffs being used to fund corporate tax cuts [3][10] - A targeted 10-15% tariff on non-energy products is anticipated, which could disrupt Canadian manufacturing and lead to retaliatory tariffs from Canada [6][7] Group 2: Inflation and Interest Rates - Inflation concerns are expected to persist in 2025, driven by tariff-induced price increases and a booming U.S. stock market, potentially pushing inflation above 3% [12][13] - The U.S. Federal Reserve is likely to maintain higher interest rates, impacting both U.S. and Canadian monetary policies [14][18] - Canadian inflation remained closer to target at around 2.2%, but the Bank of Canada held its overnight rate at 2.25% due to economic resilience and trade uncertainties [18] Group 3: Stock Market Predictions - The first half of 2025 may experience gains due to post-election optimism, but the second half could see declines due to tariffs and stretched valuations impacting corporate earnings [20][21] - High expectations for earnings growth could lead to skepticism among investors if projections begin to decline [22][23] - Overall, markets are expected to be up in 2025, with positive news on tariffs and inflation benefiting stock and commodity markets [23] Group 4: Canadian Housing Market - Canadian housing prices are projected to face downward pressure, with average home prices declining by about 6% in 2025, contrary to CREA's forecast of a 6.6% rise [32][35] - Fixed mortgage rates did not decrease significantly, maintaining high borrowing costs and limiting buyer activity [36][37] - The condo market is particularly vulnerable, with high inventory levels and cooling investor demand leading to downward price pressure [37] Group 5: Oil Market Dynamics - The global oil market is expected to remain below USD $75 per barrel due to rising U.S. production and OPEC's reluctance to cut supply [38][40] - Despite a brief peak, crude oil prices spent the majority of the year below the anticipated ceiling, with demand growth from China failing to materialize [40] Group 6: Electric Vehicle Market - Tesla's market valuation is questioned, with concerns about its sustainability compared to traditional car manufacturers and increasing competition from companies like BYD [41][45] - Despite a significant drop in Tesla's stock price earlier in the year, it rebounded, raising questions about the long-term viability of its high P/E ratio [46][48]

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back into the macroverse. Today we're going to talk about the most recent CPI report. We're going to discuss how it has dropped to 2.7% and expectations that we might have based on further rate cuts and of course how it affects markets like Bitcoin.If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and also check out the sale on into the cryptoverse premium at into the cryptoverse. com. Link is in the description below.Again, ...

Economic Overview - The US experienced a period of prosperity and social progress with low unemployment and a booming economy [1] - A serious financial crisis emerged, with overvalued houses and potential mortgage problems [2] - The economic recovery proceeded at a moderate pace, slower than expected, with a manufacturing recession due to the collapse in oil prices [3] - The COVID-19 pandemic caused a rapid shutdown of the economy and the largest unemployment rate since the Great Depression [5] - Inflation started to take hold, leading to nervousness and unhappiness about economic situations [5] Monetary Policy and Fiscal Spending - Interest rates are surprisingly low despite high budget deficits and debt [7] - The US spent too little during the financial crisis and too much during COVID-19 [9] - Running $2 trillion deficits in a growing economy is not advisable [9] - The benefits of economic stimulus tended to favor those with capital [10] - The Federal Reserve focused on getting inflation up by 01%-02% before realizing inflation was not dead [13] Inflation and Globalization - Globalization, particularly China's entry into the WTO, and increased immigration kept inflation down for two decades after 2000 [15][16] - COVID-19 and restrictions on immigration have put upward pressure on goods prices and wage inflation [17] - De-globalization and immigration restrictions could drive wages up, while AI's impact remains uncertain [17][18] European Economy - The Eurozone crisis, triggered by imbalances, led to painful adjustments in countries like Portugal, Greece, Spain, and Ireland, but also some convergence [24] - The EU is slowly moving towards fiscal coordination, but politics lags behind economics [25][26] - Brexit has negatively impacted the UK economy, potentially reducing GDP by 5%-7% [27][28] - Europe's growth rate is projected to be no more than 1%, possibly around 05% per year [30]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the macroeconomic outlook, focusing on global rates, commodities, currencies, and emerging markets, with insights from J.P. Morgan Securities. Core Insights and Arguments US Rates - Hawkish developments across developed market (DM) central banks have led to underperformance in the intermediate sector, aligning with a forecast for modestly higher yields in 2026 as easing cycles wind down [3][14] - The Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to ease rates in January 2026, with the effective funds rate projected to be 3.40% by mid-2026 [11][12] - Treasury yields are forecasted to reach 3.60% for 2-year and 4.25% for 10-year by mid-2026, with slight increases expected by year-end [9][11] International Rates - DM rates have generally sold off due to a hawkish shift in central bank tones and strong data momentum, leading to a lightening of risk in portfolios [4][39] - The Fed's recent actions have not met more hawkish market expectations, contributing to a bearish outlook for the USD [6][80] Commodities - Cocoa's re-inclusion in the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) is expected to drive significant buying, accounting for 22% of total open interest, overshadowing more modest buying in other commodities like corn and wheat [6] - Natural gas storage withdrawals in North West Europe (NWE) have exceeded forecasts, despite weaker demand trends [6] Currencies - The USD is under pressure due to a dovish Fed stance compared to hawkish developments in other G10 countries [75][79] - Event risks are elevated with upcoming US payroll releases, and a bearish outlook for the USD is contingent on data performance [79][80] Emerging Markets - The outlook for emerging markets (EM) in 2026 is positive, with lower macro volatility expected to support local markets. The recommendation is to stay overweight (OW) on EM FX and rates [6][11] - Growth and inflation are projected to remain stable, with limited central bank easing anticipated [6] Additional Important Insights - The Fed's policy path is now more aligned with J.P. Morgan's forecasts, indicating limited scope for further bearish impulses in the near term [14] - A significant funding gap is expected to emerge in 2027, with coupon size increases anticipated starting in November 2026 [22] - The demand for Treasuries is expected to remain stable, with mutual funds and ETFs likely absorbing 50% of net T-bill supply [32] - The anticipated cuts from the Fed and other central banks are expected to create a more favorable environment for high-yield currencies [68] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the macroeconomic landscape and its implications for various asset classes.