Core Viewpoint - ASML's stock has declined approximately 14% since analysts rated it as a strong buy in early February, and while it appears undervalued, it is currently not a buy due to bearish technical indicators and weak growth expectations for the second quarter [1][14]. Technical Analysis - The downward trend for ASML began with a bearish engulfing pattern in mid-February, and the stock is currently far below its trend line, indicating a lack of support and potential for further declines [3][4]. - The 50-day moving average has remained significantly below the 200-day moving average, indicating a consistent long-term bearish momentum [5]. - Recent price action shows that ASML has fallen below all Fibonacci retracement levels, suggesting that the recent rebound is failing [6]. - There are no signs of improvement in ASML's situation, with bearish indicators persisting [8]. Financial Performance - ASML reported net sales of €7.742 billion for Q1 2025, a year-over-year increase of 46.4%, aligning with expectations, and a dollar growth of 41.77% to $8.82 billion, exceeding forecasts by $35.52 million [11]. - The company’s bookings were €3.936 billion, slightly above the previous year's €3.611 billion, and adjusted earnings per share were $6.83, surpassing expectations by $0.31 [11]. - However, a concerning signal is the significant decline in operating cash flow, which, while historically normal for Q1, raises some alarm [11]. Future Guidance - ASML expects Q2 2025 revenue to be between €7.2 billion and €7.7 billion, representing a 19.3% increase from €6.243 billion in Q2 2024, but this is a significant slowdown compared to Q1's growth rate [12]. - The anticipated gross margin for Q2 is projected to be between 50% and 53%, which is consistent with the previous year's margin of 51.5% [12]. Valuation - The current price-to-sales ratio for ASML is 7.394, down from over 15 in mid-2024, indicating that the stock is undervalued despite the disappointing guidance for Q2 [14]. - The valuation reflects excessive pessimism, as the expected revenue growth remains around average levels, and the stock is trading at a premium of 193% compared to the median price-to-sales ratio in the IT sector [14][15]. - Although the stock may present a long-term investment opportunity, the combination of weak technicals and slowing growth suggests that short-term gains are unlikely [15].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the author's investment perspective on UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (NYSE: UNH), highlighting a modest long-term position in the stock and a focus on fundamental analysis for investment decisions [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - The author emphasizes a strategy focused on identifying stocks that are selling below their fair value estimates, with a preference for those that offer dividend growth or income [2]. - Options strategies are primarily utilized to generate additional income or to hedge against risks associated with investments [2]. Group 2: Disclosure and Position - The author has a beneficial long position in the shares of UnitedHealth Group and CVS, either through direct stock ownership, options, or other derivatives [2]. - The article is presented as an expression of the author's own opinions, with no compensation received for the content aside from the platform [2].

Group 1 - Accenture plc (ACN) has recently experienced a significant stock decline due to being targeted by DOGE, which is viewed as an overreaction and presents a potential buying opportunity [1] - The article emphasizes the importance of technical analysis in identifying key bottoming patterns for investment decisions [1] - The author expresses a commitment to high-quality technical analysis and values such as excellence, integrity, transparency, and respect in their investment approach [1] Group 2 - The article does not provide any specific financial data or performance metrics related to Accenture plc or the tech sector [2]

Core Viewpoint - The individual investor adopts a contrarian investment style, focusing on deep value opportunities, particularly in stocks that have recently experienced sell-offs due to non-recurrent events, while also considering insider buying as a positive signal [1] Investment Strategy - The investment portfolio is split approximately 50%-50% between shares and call options, indicating a balanced approach to risk and return [1] - The investor's timeframe for holding positions ranges from 3 to 24 months, suggesting a medium-term investment horizon [1] - Fundamental analysis is employed to assess the health of companies, including leverage and financial ratios compared to sector and industry averages [1] - Technical analysis is utilized to optimize entry and exit points, with a focus on support and resistance levels on weekly charts [1] Stock Selection Criteria - Preference is given to stocks that have undergone a recent sell-off, particularly when there is insider buying at the new lower price, indicating potential recovery [1] - The investor screens through thousands of stocks, primarily in the US, but is open to owning shares in less stable markets [1] - Professional background checks are conducted on insiders who purchase shares post-sell-off to ensure credibility and alignment with shareholder interests [1]

Core Insights - The current macroeconomic environment is characterized by high levels of uncertainty, making it challenging to formulate rational expectations for future growth [1] Group 1: Analyst Background - The analyst has extensive experience in the hedge fund industry, having worked as a Portfolio Manager, Domestic Equity Analyst, and Trader since the mid-90s [1] - The analyst managed a domestic Long/Short Equity product with gross assets that peaked over 1 billion dollars [1] - The investment philosophy is fundamentally driven, focusing on value investments for long positions and catalyst-oriented short investments, complemented by technical analysis for risk management [1] Group 2: Investment Focus - The analyst aims to write about unconventional investments and overlooked securities, indicating a focus on niche opportunities [1] - The analyst is also involved in the analysis and investment of Cryptoassets, suggesting a diversification in investment strategies [1]

Group 1 - The price of crude oil is experiencing a narrow trading range, with a low of $60.92 and a high of $62.12, indicating a consolidation phase [1] - A decline below the day's low of $60.92 could target $60.68, followed by $59.54, while resistance levels are identified at $62.74 and $63.45 [2] - The current consolidation phase may lead to a continuation of the rally from the recent lows, suggesting potential upward movement in crude oil prices [3][4] Group 2 - The recent decline in crude oil prices represents the largest bearish correction since May 2023, followed by a sharp rally and bullish reversal [5] - There is potential for the subsequent rally to test resistance levels around the 20-Day MA at $66.18 and the 50-Day MA at $68.29, with support seen at the bottom of the trend channel [5]

Small deep value individual investor, with a modest private investment portfolio, split approx. 50%-50% between shares and call options. I have a B.Sc. in aeronautical engineering and over 6 years of experience as an engineering consultant in the aerospace sector. The latter statement is not relevant in any way whatsoever to my investment style, but I thought to add it for self-indulgent purposes. I have a contrarian investment style, highly risky, and often dealing with illiquid options. How illiquid? Well ...

Small deep value individual investor, with a modest private investment portfolio, split approx. 50%-50% between shares and call options. I have a B.Sc. in aeronautical engineering and over 6 years of experience as an engineering consultant in the aerospace sector. The latter statement is not relevant in any way whatsoever to my investment style, but I thought to add it for self-indulgent purposes. I have a contrarian investment style, highly risky, and often dealing with illiquid options. How illiquid? Well ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the challenges faced by market participants, including traders, medium-term speculators, and buy-and-hold investors, particularly in identifying the right time to buy stocks [1] - It highlights the tendency for average stock purchasers to buy stocks that are already overbought, leading to potential losses when prices drop [1] - The article emphasizes the importance of actionable trading and investing ideas, as well as community interaction for better decision-making [1] Group 2 - David H. Lerner is identified as an analyst with a decade of experience in software consulting and technology, focusing on market trends and trade ideas [2] - The analyst employs a combination of technical analysis and market psychology to achieve outsized returns, indicating a strategic approach to investing [2] - A trading style known as "Cash Management Discipline" is utilized to hedge against market volatility, reflecting a risk management strategy [2]

Core Insights - United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) has experienced significant stock losses exceeding 35% over the past year, indicating a period of technical weakness for the stock [1] - Despite the technical challenges, the current valuation of UPS is considered too attractive to overlook, suggesting potential investment opportunities [1] Company Analysis - The stock's performance has been notably poor, with a decline of over 35% in the last year, which may continue in the short term [1] - The analysis indicates that the valuation metrics for UPS have reached a level that may present a buying opportunity for investors [1]