Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a weekly tracking of commodity quantitative CTA by Guotou Futures Research Institute's Financial Engineering Group [1][2] Group 2: Methanol Analysis - Last week, the supply factor of methanol increased by 0.08%, the demand factor strengthened by 0.09%, the inventory factor rose by 0.08%, and the synthetic factor decreased by 0.08%. This week's comprehensive signal is neutral [2][3] - The domestic methanol operating rate changed from an increase to a decrease, with the supply side being neutral; the MTO operating rate in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang region decreased last week, turning the demand side bearish; the inventory of production enterprises was low and continued to be destocked, with the inventory side remaining bullish; the methanol futures price and the Inner Mongolia - Shandong regional spread factor released a bearish signal, with the spread side being neutral to bearish [3] Group 3: Float Glass Analysis - Last week, the supply factor of float glass decreased by 0.20%, the inventory factor strengthened by 0.03%, the spread factor remained unchanged, and the synthetic factor decreased by 0.03%. This week's comprehensive signal is bearish [6] - The weekly output of float glass enterprises decreased slightly, with the supply side being neutral; the real - estate transaction volume in first - and second - tier cities decreased, but increased in third - tier cities, with the demand side being neutral; the inventory of float glass enterprises was at a high level and slightly increased, with the inventory side remaining bearish; the main continuous basis released a bearish signal, with the spread side being neutral to bearish; the pre - tax gross profit of pipeline - gas - made float glass turned from negative to positive, with the profit side being neutral to bullish [6] Group 4: Iron Ore Analysis - Last week, the supply factor of iron ore weakened by 0.23%, the demand factor weakened by 0.16%, the inventory factor weakened by 0.24%, the spread factor strengthened by 0.05%, and the synthetic factor weakened by 0.13%. This week's comprehensive signal remains bearish [7] - The SMM domestic lead concentrate price continued to rise, turning the supply side signal bullish; the export volume of Chinese lead alloys in April decreased compared to March, with the demand side signal remaining bearish; the LME lead registered warehouse receipts decreased, with the inventory side remaining neutral to bearish; the SMM domestic lead concentrate processing fee continued to decline, with the spread side signal remaining bearish [7] Group 5: Lead Analysis - Last week, the supply factor of lead weakened by 0.23%, the demand factor weakened by 0.16%, the inventory factor weakened by 0.24%, the spread factor strengthened by 0.05%, and the synthetic factor weakened by 0.13%. This week's comprehensive signal remains bearish [7] - The SMM domestic lead concentrate price continued to rise, turning the supply side signal bullish; the export volume of Chinese lead alloys in April decreased compared to March, with the demand side signal remaining bearish; the LME lead registered warehouse receipts decreased, with the inventory side remaining neutral to bearish; the SMM domestic lead concentrate processing fee continued to decline, with the spread side signal remaining bearish [7]

Report Title - The report is titled "Commodity Quantitative CTA Weekly Tracking" by Guotou Futures Research Institute's Financial Engineering Group, dated March 25, 2025 [1][2] Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The commodity sector cross - section has switched, with internal differentiation in the energy and chemical sector, a decline in the agricultural products sector, and the precious metals and non - ferrous sectors remaining relatively strong in the cross - section. Specific sectors show different trends in momentum,持仓量, and term structure [3] Summary by Commodity Categories Overall Commodity Sector - The non - ferrous sector shows upward momentum, while the energy and chemical sector has internal differentiation, the agricultural products sector is down, and the precious metals and non - ferrous sectors are relatively strong. Different sectors have different changes in momentum,持仓量, and term structure indicators [3] Methanol - Strategy net value: The demand factor decreased by 0.23%, the inventory factor decreased by 0.19%, and the synthetic factor weakened by 0.15%. The comprehensive signal this week is neutral. Fundamental factors: The methanol arrival volume gives a long signal, domestic capacity utilization gives a short signal (supply is neutral); methanol - to - olefin plant capacity utilization decreased, acetic acid operating rate increased (demand is neutral); port inventory continued to decrease, and the short - side strength of the inventory factor weakened significantly to neutral; the Inner Mongolia - Shandong regional spread factor gives a long signal, and the spread factor is slightly long [5] Glass - Strategy net value: Last week, the supply factor weakened by 0.20%, the demand factor decreased by 0.19%, the inventory factor decreased by 1.15%, and the synthetic factor weakened by 0.91%. The comprehensive signal this week is short. Fundamental factors: The float glass capacity utilization rate was flat month - on - month (supply is neutral); second - tier city commercial housing transaction data gives a short signal (demand is short); float glass enterprise inventory is relatively high year - on - year (inventory remains short); the domestic float glass market price gives a long signal, but the overall long - side contribution is not high (spread is slightly long) [9] Iron Ore - Strategy net value: The inventory factor weakened by 1.09%, the spread factor remained unchanged, and the synthetic factor weakened by 0.34%. The comprehensive signal this week remains long. Fundamental factors: The iron ore arrival volume at Qingdao Port continued to decline compared with the previous week (supply signal turns neutral); the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel enterprises increased compared with the previous week (demand signal remains neutral); the inventory of Brazilian iron ore in 31 ports continued to rise (inventory remains long); the spot sales price of Rio Tinto's PB powder at Rizhao Port increased (spread signal remains neutral) [12] Aluminum - Strategy net value: Last week, the supply factor weakened by 0.11%, the demand factor weakened by 0.68%, the inventory factor weakened by 0.12%, the spread factor remained unchanged, and the synthetic factor weakened by 0.20%. The comprehensive signal this week remains long. Fundamental factors: The SMM domestic lead concentrate price continued to rise (supply signal remains long); China's lead alloy exports in March decreased compared with February (demand signal turns short); LME lead registered warrants decreased (inventory turns short); SMM concentrate import profit increased (spread signal is long) [12]