Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report provides short - term evaluations and trading suggestions for multiple commodities, including rubber, silver, crude oil, PTA, etc. It analyzes the supply - demand situation, price trends, and influencing factors of each commodity, and gives corresponding trading strategies. 3. Summary by Commodity Rubber - Supply: Thai raw material glue price is 62.75 Thai baht/kg, cup - glue price is 52.8 Thai baht/kg; Hainan glue for whole - milk production is 13,100 yuan/ton, for concentrated latex production is 14,100 yuan/ton. April global natural rubber production is expected to drop 1.4% to 767,000 tons, 3.9% lower than last month. Thailand's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber in the first 4 months are 1.573 million tons, a 13.5% year - on - year increase, with 1.005 million tons exported to China, a 38% year - on - year increase [1]. - Market situation: Raw materials are resistant to price drops due to delayed Thai harvest and rainy weather in Southeast Asia. China's inventory decreased last week. However, downstream consumption is weak, with tire production slightly adjusted down and inventory increasing. The market is expected to be weak and volatile [1]. Silver - Market factors: Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari said the pause in loose policies may be longer due to uncertainties. Fed officials believe future interest rate cuts are uncertain. The US dollar index is falling, which is positive for gold and negative for silver [2]. - Market outlook: A mid - term wide - range oscillation is expected. Attention should be paid to the divergence between silver and gold and the Fed's interest rate cut expectations [2]. Crude Oil - Market news: OPEC+ has not discussed increasing oil production by 410,000 barrels per day before the meeting. US President Trump postponed the deadline for imposing a 50% tariff on EU goods to July 9 [4]. - Market situation: The implementation of OPEC+ production increase is less than expected, so short - term pressure on crude oil is small. The Iran - US nuclear agreement negotiation may be long - term, with a weakened short - term impact on the market. In the medium term, it is in the OPEC+ policy window in July, and short - term trading is recommended [4]. PTA - Market data: PX CFR is 825 US dollars/ton, PX - N is 263 US dollars/ton; East China PTA is 4,910 yuan/ton, and PTA cash - flow cost is 449 yuan/ton. The PTA industry load increased 0.2% to 77.1%, at a neutral level in the same period over the years [5]. - Market situation: In May, the unplanned PX maintenance loss was significant, and PX supply was tight. But as PX efficiency recovers, supply will increase. PTA supply will also increase slightly, and polyester inventory is high. In the long - term, with new PTA capacity release, over - capacity pressure will emerge, and high - price chasing is not recommended [5]. Pig - Market data: On May 26, the national average pork price in agricultural product wholesale markets was 20.60 yuan/kg, a 1.7% decrease from last Friday; eggs were 7.74 yuan/kg, a 2.1% decrease [6]. - Market situation: The national pig price rose overall. After the price decline, farmers held prices, and some second - fattening activities increased. Slaughterhouses purchased as needed, and some slaughter volumes increased slightly. Short - term long trading can be tried, and farmers can sell for hedging according to the slaughter rhythm [6]. Palm Oil - Market data: As of May 23, 2025, the total commercial inventory of three major oils (soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil) in key regions in China was 1.8018 million tons, a 0.67 - million - ton decrease (0.37% decline) from last week, and an 80,900 - ton increase (4.70% increase) year - on - year [6]. - Market situation: Indonesia's export tariff increase and the plan to implement B50 in 2026 affected the market. In China, the price difference between soybean oil and palm oil is inverted, and some markets are short of spot goods. Downstream demand is for rigid needs, and trading volume increased slightly. Short - term price is expected to oscillate, and high - selling and low - buying operations are recommended [6]. Soybean - Market data: Consulting firm Datagro estimates Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production to reach 172 million tons (previously 171.2 million tons) and corn production to be 132.7 million tons (previously 131.7 million tons) [7]. - Market situation: A large amount of South American soybeans arriving at ports can meet processing needs. Spring sowing in Chinese production areas has started. Farmers' willingness to sell is increasing, but the supply at the grass - roots level is running out, and consumption is in the off - season. Domestic soybean prices are expected to be stable. It is recommended to wait for a price pull - back to go long on soybean No. 1 [7]. Gold - Market news: Trump's tariff policy is uncertain, and the market's risk - aversion sentiment is rising. The US dollar index is falling, which boosts gold. Powell's speech also adds more possibilities to future monetary policies [9]. - Market situation: Gold is expected to be bullish in the short - term, and the medium - term situation needs further observation. Attention should be paid to the progress of the trade war [9]. Coke - Market data: On May 26, the coke market price was weak. Mainstream steel mills in Hebei and Tianjin proposed a second - round price cut, which is expected to be implemented this Wednesday [9]. - Market situation: Coking coal prices are weak, with sufficient supply and a risk of further price cuts. Steel mills' iron - water daily output is decreasing, and their coke inventory is high, accelerating the coke price cut. Coke prices are expected to be weak in the short - term [9]. Rebar - Market data: On May 26, the domestic steel market declined. The ex - factory price of common billets in Tangshan Qian'an Songting Iron and Steel decreased 10 yuan to 2,930 yuan/ton. Seven domestic steel mills lowered the ex - factory price of construction steel by 20 - 30 yuan/ton. The average price of 20mm third - grade earthquake - resistant rebar in 31 major cities was 3,261 yuan/ton, a 27 - yuan decrease from the previous trading day [10]. - Market situation: The supply - demand fundamentals are weakening. Spot prices are falling, and the profits of long and short - process production are decreasing. Iron - water output is decreasing. Demand is weakening both month - on - month and year - on - year, mainly due to the real - estate sector. The rebar market is expected to be weak in the short - term [10]. Iron Ore - Market data: The total inventory of imported iron ore in 45 ports across the country is 139.8783 million tons, a 1.7826 - million - ton decrease from the previous period; the daily average port clearance volume is 3.2709 million tons, a 32,000 - ton increase; the number of ships at ports is 87, an increase of 4 [10]. - Market situation: Iron - water output is decreasing, and the macro - sentiment is weakening, leading to a price decline. In the short - term, iron ore supply is decreasing, and demand from steel enterprises has little short - term pressure to cut production. Port inventory is decreasing significantly. The short - term supply - demand is balanced, and the price is expected to be weak and volatile [10]. Treasury Bonds - Market data: Most money - market interest rates are rising. The weighted average interest rate of inter - bank pledged repurchase is 1.5113% for 1 - day (a 5.39 - BP decrease), 1.6545% for 7 - day (a 6.85 - BP increase), 1.6892% for 14 - day (a 2.25 - BP increase), and 1.66% for 1 - month (unchanged) [11]. - Market situation: Rising money - market interest rates are negative for the bond market. Bond issuance is basically completed, and the supply shock is easing. The economic downward pressure is still large, and expanding the domestic cycle is important. The bond market's main logic is not clear, and the stock - bond seesaw is the main factor. A mid - term slightly bullish and oscillating trend is expected [11].