The global economy is flying blind into the AI revolution https://t.co/BhXeeW5bDa ...

Core Viewpoint - Investor Michael Burry questions Nvidia's capital allocation strategy, claiming that the $112.5 billion spent on stock buybacks since 2018 has resulted in "zero" additional shareholder value [1][2]. Group 1: Buyback Analysis - Burry highlights a disconnect between Nvidia's aggressive share repurchases and the increase in the company's share count, noting that $20.5 billion has been spent on Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) since 2018 [2][3]. - Despite Nvidia reporting a substantial $205 billion in net income and $188 billion in free cash flow during the same period, Burry argues that the buybacks primarily offset SBC-related dilution [3][4]. - He points out that the buybacks resulted in 47 million more shares outstanding, suggesting that the true cost of SBC dilution was equivalent to the $112.5 billion spent on buybacks, effectively reducing owner's earnings by 50% [4][5]. Group 2: Company Performance - This critique arises as Nvidia continues to dominate the market and sees its stock price soar, driven by its significant role in the AI sector [6]. - Nvidia's recent third-quarter results showcased record revenue of $57 billion, reflecting a 62% year-over-year increase, with CEO Jensen Huang emphasizing the pervasive impact of AI [6].

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia's stock experienced significant volatility following its earnings report, initially rising over 5% before closing 3% lower, indicating market uncertainty despite strong financial performance [1][2][3]. Company Performance - Nvidia reported a strong quarter with revenues of $57 billion and an optimistic outlook of $65 billion, which initially excited investors [14]. - The average price target for Nvidia increased from $234 to $250 post-earnings, reflecting continued optimism among analysts [4][3]. Market Reaction - The stock's movement was influenced by broader concerns regarding AI valuations and the tech sector, rather than issues specific to Nvidia [5][6]. - The tech sector, including Nvidia, faced selling pressure, with some analysts suggesting that the bottom has not yet been reached [16][17]. Industry Context - The volatility in Nvidia's stock is part of a larger trend affecting the tech sector, with significant declines observed in related companies like SoftBank, which sold its entire stake in Nvidia [7][8]. - Concerns about circular financing and AI valuations are prevalent, with investors uncertain about how to evaluate these unprecedented market conditions [9][10]. Economic Factors - The market is currently experiencing cautious optimism, with discussions around potential interest rate cuts influencing investor sentiment [11][25]. - Despite lower yields, the market is not fully pricing in a rate cut for December, indicating ongoing uncertainty [25].

Just six months ago, Alphabet investors feared the company could be a casualty of the AI revolution. Now the biggest worry is if the stock is getting too expensive for its own good https://t.co/s8jJLqs7Cr ...

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia's strong third-quarter earnings demonstrate that the AI boom is still robust, alleviating concerns about a potential AI bubble [1][3]. Financial Performance - Nvidia reported $57 billion in revenue, exceeding Wall Street's estimate of $55 billion, with its data center division generating $51 billion, surpassing the projected $49.31 billion [2]. - The company posted earnings of $1.30 per share, slightly above the $1.26 estimate, and forecasted $65 billion in revenue for the fourth quarter, exceeding expectations of $61.98 billion [2]. Market Reaction - Following the earnings report, Nvidia's stock rose approximately 3% in after-hours trading and climbed about 4.5% as the analyst call concluded [3]. - Analysts view the results as a significant validation of the ongoing AI revolution, with some suggesting that fears of an AI bubble are overstated [3][4]. Industry Insights - Despite concerns over rising capital expenditures estimated at over $400 billion across major cloud platforms, Nvidia's results indicate that tech companies are committed to scaling their data centers [4]. - Analysts noted that while there are ongoing concerns regarding capex sustainability and competition, Nvidia's performance provides confidence in its execution [5]. Product Demand - Nvidia reported strong sales for its Blackwell and Rubin chips, with expectations of continued growth in revenue from these products through 2026 [7][8]. - The company has $500 billion in AI-chip orders booked for 2025 and 2026, indicating robust demand [8]. Supply Chain and Capacity - Nvidia's CEO highlighted that cloud GPUs are sold out, and demand for Blackwell GB300 GPUs is particularly strong, accounting for two-thirds of Blackwell sales [9][10]. - Analysts believe that the current supply constraints and full utilization of Nvidia's products will help stabilize AI stocks moving forward [10]. AI Bubble Discussion - Nvidia's CEO addressed concerns about an AI bubble, asserting that the company is uniquely positioned in the AI space and does not see evidence of a bubble [11]. - Contrasting views exist, with some industry leaders warning of potential pitfalls in AI investments, while others argue that the current developments represent a new industrial structure rather than a bubble [12][13].

Core Insights - Applied Digital (APLD) is positioning itself as a critical infrastructure provider for the AI revolution, focusing on purpose-built data centers for high-performance computing workloads [1] - The company’s proprietary liquid cooling system enhances energy efficiency and sustainability, addressing key constraints for hyperscalers [2] - APLD's expansion plans, including a 400 MW capacity at Polaris Forge 1, indicate strong market demand for specialized AI infrastructure [3][4] Infrastructure and Market Demand - The active pipeline of 4 gigawatts and discussions with hyperscalers suggest robust demand for AI-specific capacity [4] - APLD achieved a significant operational milestone with the first 50-MW phase at Polaris Forge 1, transitioning from construction to revenue generation [4] Financial Performance and Growth Projections - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal second-quarter revenues is $75.95 million, reflecting an 18.91% year-over-year increase [5] - APLD's aggressive capital deployment across multiple projects may introduce execution complexities, impacting revenue growth sustainability [5] Competitive Landscape - APLD faces competition from Riot Platforms and Equinix, both of which are expanding their capabilities in AI infrastructure [6] - Riot Platforms operates large power-dense sites and shares regional advantages with APLD, while Equinix leverages its extensive global network of data centers [6] Stock Performance and Valuation - APLD shares have increased by 200.2% year to date, significantly outperforming the broader Zacks Finance sector [7] - The stock is considered overvalued with a forward price/sales ratio of 16.2X compared to the sector's 8.93X [10] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the second-quarter fiscal 2026 loss is 10 cents per share, indicating a wider loss compared to the previous year [12]

Core Viewpoint - Peter Thiel's hedge fund, Thiel Macro LLC, sold its entire stake in Nvidia during the third quarter, coinciding with SoftBank's similar divestment, raising concerns about a potential AI bubble in the market [1][2][3] Group 1: Stake Sales - Thiel Macro LLC sold all 537,742 shares of Nvidia, valued at approximately $85 million at the end of Q2, which would have been worth about $100 million at market close on September 30 [1] - SoftBank disclosed it sold its entire stake in Nvidia during the same quarter, amounting to a $5.8 billion divestment [2] - Both sales occurred as some investors express increasing caution regarding the sustainability of the AI boom [2] Group 2: Nvidia's Market Position - Nvidia has become the world's most valuable company, surpassing a market capitalization of $5 trillion last month, driven by its role in powering AI applications [3] - Dan Ives, a Wedbush analyst, maintains a bullish outlook on Nvidia, describing it as a "foundational piece" of the AI revolution and expects it to exceed market estimates in its upcoming earnings report [4] Group 3: Thiel Macro's Remaining Holdings - At the end of Q3, Thiel Macro held stakes in Apple, Tesla, and Microsoft, with a combined value exceeding $74 million as of September 30 [4]

I mean, it was 900 p. m. in that AI party.It's now 10:30 p. m. , but that party goes to 4:00 a.m. And it and and it's my view where look, you're going to have glass in the dance floor. DJ stops playing music, but that party is going to continue.Ra, the Bulls and the Bears meet up at 6:00 a. m. at the diner.Bulls had a lot better night than the bears. >> Dan, my mother always told me nothing good happens after midnight. So, how do you know when to leave the party.>> When it comes to AI, it's all about demand ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue for Q3 2025 was $11.5 million, down from $11.7 million in Q2 2025, with some revenue migration dilution due to technology platform migration [8][9] - Cash decreased to $10.3 million from $10.5 million at the end of Q2 2025, primarily due to the timing of customer payments [9] - Anticipated sequential decline in revenue and adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2025, but expected sales growth moving into 2026 [9][10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Continued progress in launching new products and accelerating sales bookings to the highest levels of the year [6] - Focus on large vertical markets, delivering industry-specific AI solutions across various sectors including automotive, healthcare, and advertising [6][7] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is positioned to expand into a larger addressable market by selling bundled solutions that integrate insights, actions, and outcomes [21][14] - The potential combined company with Arcaneum could achieve a revenue run rate of approximately $15 million quarterly, growing in the 15%-20% range in 2026 [14] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to evolve from providing strategic analytics to delivering comprehensive AI-powered solutions that enhance customer acquisition and optimization [4][5] - The acquisition of Arcaneum is expected to create a vertically focused, AI-driven customer acquisition platform, enhancing market reach and strategic flexibility [13][14] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management believes the company is at a positive inflection point, with significant opportunities for growth through AI-driven solutions [4][5] - The focus will be on maximizing revenue growth while maintaining positive adjusted EBITDA margins of 10% or more [22] Other Important Information - The agreement to acquire Arcaneum includes a $10 million convertible promissory note and an earnout based on performance metrics [11][12] - The anticipated closing date for the acquisition is in the first half of 2026, pending approval from disinterested stockholders [12] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the TAM for the combined solution? - The addressable market for the combined company is expected to be multiples of the current market, with significant customer acquisition budgets tied to insights [21] Question: How does the company view the trade-off between growth and profitability? - The focus is on maximizing revenue growth while maintaining positive adjusted EBITDA margins, prioritizing customer penetration and scaling [22] Question: How does growth break down between new and existing customers? - The company believes it can achieve a $100 million revenue opportunity much sooner with the combined capabilities, leveraging existing customer relationships [23][24]

Core Insights - Amazon has laid off 660 employees in Manhattan as part of a larger restructuring effort, with significant cuts occurring at two main office locations [1][2][4] - The layoffs are primarily focused on corporate roles, particularly in technology, and do not affect warehouse or delivery workers [3][7] - The company is planning to eliminate a total of 30,000 corporate jobs globally, representing about 9% of its office-based workforce [4] Group 1: Layoff Details - The layoffs included 233 positions at Amazon's 450 W. 33rd St. office and 182 positions at the 424 Fifth Ave. office [2] - Additional layoffs occurred at various other locations in New York City, totaling 91 jobs at 410 Tenth Ave, 58 at 7 W. 34th St., and several others [9] - The layoffs are expected to continue into January 2024, following the holiday shopping season [7] Group 2: Company Strategy and Context - Amazon's restructuring aims to reduce bureaucracy and shift resources to focus on key investments, as stated by senior VP Beth Galetti [4][10] - The company has undergone significant job cuts since Andy Jassy took over as CEO in 2021, with tens of thousands of jobs eliminated [7] - The current wave of layoffs is seen as surprising given the ongoing competition for talent and advancements in AI technology [3][10]