Hispanics helped fuel US consumer spending during the pandemic recovery. Now they're pulling back after years of high prices and anxiety about Donald Trump's immigration crackdown https://t.co/OlHaLB891O ...

Fiscal Policy & Economic Growth - The analysis suggests tariffs are running at an annual rate between $400 billion and $500 billion, potentially improving the deficit, but real GDP growth is considered the key to significantly reducing the deficit as a percentage of GDP [1] - The report anticipates real GDP growth will surprise on the high side of expectations later in the year and into 2026, driven by innovation platforms like robotics, energy storage, AI, multiomic sequencing, and blockchain technology, all catalyzed by AI [1] - The analysis highlights deregulation, particularly in crypto, AI, and nuclear energy, as a significant factor for economic growth, with tax changes encouraging manufacturing and innovation through accelerated depreciation schedules and full expensing of equipment, R&D, and software [1] Inflation & Monetary Policy - The report indicates that while inflation may seem stuck in the 2% to 3% range, innovation-driven productivity gains could lead to deflation in the coming years [2] - The analysis points out that M2 money supply growth has significantly dropped compared to the COVID boom, and the velocity of money is declining, potentially diffusing inflationary pressures [2] - The yield curve, measured by the two-year Treasury yield relative to the three-month Treasury yield, indicates tight monetary policy, which is expected to have disinflationary or deflationary effects [3] - True inflation CPI is reported at 19%, even with tariffs factored in, and consumer inflation expectations are expected to decline [3] Market Indicators & Investment Strategy - The analysis notes that manufacturing has been contracting for the last three years, and services are not in great shape, signaling potential economic concerns [4] - The report highlights that AI-powered capital spending is increasing, supported by new tax rules, while the trade deficit is being addressed [5] - The analysis observes that pending home sales are deteriorating, and new home inventory is high, potentially leading to price cuts and impacting the CPI [5] - The report suggests that the return on investment in the US is expected to increase due to innovation, tax laws, and deregulation, potentially strengthening the dollar [5] - The analysis notes that corporate profits are healthy, but quality of earnings and harnessing new technologies will be crucial for future growth [5] - The report observes that commodity prices are going nowhere, and gold is breaking out to all-time highs relative to metals, possibly signaling deflationary concerns [5]

Let's break down what this jobs report means for stocks after the major averages fell from the record highs they set earlier today. Joining us now is Ross Mayfield. He is an investment strategist at Bar Private Wealth Management.Ross, it's great to have you on. Given what we've seen in the data, not only today, but this week, what we're seeing in the bond market, do stocks hovering right near record highs, does that make sense, or are we looking at maybe a near-term peak here. No, I think it makes sense.I m ...

Lululemon's Challenges - Lululemon's core business was losing momentum, leading to unsuccessful expansion attempts [1] - Increased competition from companies like Alo and Vuori is significantly impacting Lululemon [3][4] - Lululemon is losing its core customer base to competitors who have strong brand identity, quality fabrics, and effective marketing [6] - Alo and Vuori each have over 100 stores across the United States, posing a challenge to Lululemon's market share [4] Consumer Trends and Economic Factors - Negative consumer trends are described as "Lions, tigers, and bears," representing choppy mall traffic, rising inventories, and peak margins/earnings [7][8] - Retail inventories are rising faster than sales growth, which is concerning for most mall retailers [7] - The consumer is becoming more price-sensitive due to a weaker job market and lower wage growth [9][10] - High credit card debt of $1.2 trillion may limit consumer spending [9]

So, let's get back to our panel. Here we have Greg Do, EY chief economist. Also joining us is Leslie Falconeio, UBS Global Wealth Management head of taxable fixed income strategy and Steve Sausnik, Interactive Brokers chief strategist.So, uh, Greg, let's start with you there. You had that 40k call. We are coming in quite lower than consensus at this point, 22,000.What's your reaction. >> Well, I think generally speaking, we have a fairly weak uh jobs report here. uh we have all the indications that employer ...

Retail Sales Performance - UK retail sales declined in the three months to July [1] Economic Impact - Consumer caution continues to hold back Labour's plans for growth [1]

Consumers are still spending despite tariff pressures, but reports show they're getting more selective about how they spend money. https://t.co/6F28IOPzWz ...

Consumer Spending Trends - Households earning between $50,000 and $100,000 are reducing spending [1] - Higher income earners continue to spend [1] Economic Impact - Households earning $50,000 to $100,000 are feeling increasingly financially constrained [1]

Macy’s raised its annual outlook and reported its best comparable sales growth in 12 quarters, the latest signs that consumers are still spending despite concerns about inflation and tariffs https://t.co/u0ClEXqolu ...

Holiday spending in the US is poised to decline this year due to Gen Z’s concerns about rising prices, tariffs and a higher cost of living, according to a survey https://t.co/vLygLOecb5 ...