Core Viewpoint - The process to replace Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell is underway, with a long list of candidates being considered, and the urgency appears to be lessened due to anticipated Fed rate cuts [1][2][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Chair Replacement Process - US Treasury Secretary Scott Benson is expanding the list of candidates to replace Fed Chair Jay Powell, having met with former Fed officials [2]. - There are currently 1011 names circulating for the Fed chair position, with initial interviews beginning [2]. - The administration is taking a more methodical approach to the selection process, influenced by the current economic data suggesting a Fed rate cut [3]. Group 2: Economic Perspectives and Consumer Sentiment - The upcoming interviews for the new Fed chair may focus on how the chair could influence the Federal Reserve's approach to inflation, especially in light of recent criticisms regarding the Fed's handling of the COVID pandemic [4]. - Consumer sentiment is being closely monitored, as real-life experiences of inflation, such as a 20% increase in coffee prices, may differ from broader economic indicators [6][7]. - A recent poll indicates that 55% of Americans are not allowing tariffs to dictate their purchasing decisions, suggesting a disconnect between consumer behavior and tariff impacts [21]. Group 3: Characteristics Desired in the New Fed Chair - The administration seeks a candidate with a strong resume to gain market respect while also favoring monetary policies aligned with the president's agenda [10][11]. - There is an emphasis on appointing someone who can bring reform to the Fed and challenge its traditional independence [14]. - The administration aims to avoid past mistakes by selecting a chair who will support their policies, even if not overtly [18].

Economic Overview - The service sector is driving a 0.4% topline growth, indicating a stronger-than-expected performance in this area [2][4] - Inflation in the service sector appears to be sticky and potentially stubborn, complicating the Federal Reserve's efforts to return to a 2% inflation target [4][10] - The recent jobless claims reached 263,000, the highest since 2021, suggesting a weakening labor market [10] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points next week, but this decision is influenced by rising inflation and downside risks to employment [8][13] - There is a conflict in the Fed's mandates, as inflation remains elevated while employment data shows signs of weakness [9][16] - The Fed funds futures market anticipates a sub-3% rate by the end of next year, which may be overly optimistic given current inflation levels [14][30] Inflation Dynamics - Inflation remains elevated, with specific increases noted in food prices and shelter, which are impacting lower-income Americans disproportionately [18][22] - The food at home price index increased by 6.1%, while the shelter index rose by 0.4%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [18] - Apparel prices also saw a 0.5% increase, suggesting that tariffs may be influencing these costs [20] Market Sentiment and Consumer Behavior - Consumer sentiment has shown some improvement, but there remains a general pessimism regarding job prospects and wage growth [25][26] - The economic environment is characterized by a K-shaped recovery, where wealth inequality is evident, impacting policy decisions [19][39] - The Fed's credibility is under scrutiny, particularly regarding its ability to manage inflation expectations while navigating political pressures [42][43] Interest Rates and Treasury Yields - Long-term yields, such as the 10-year Treasury yield, are not expected to fall significantly due to persistent inflation and fiscal concerns [29][30] - Mortgage rates are unlikely to decrease much further, as they are influenced more by long-term yields than by the Fed's short-term rate cuts [33][34] - The yield curve is steepening, indicating that investors are becoming more cautious about the Fed's independence and its implications for monetary policy [37][38]

We want to turn to some breaking news. Our Steve Leeman joining us now with that breaking news. Steve, over to you, Frank.Thanks very much. Treasury Secretary Scott Besson has published a broad and sweeping criticism of the Federal Reserve in an issue which is now online and we've read the whole thing uh or most of the whole thing uh in the magazine called the International Economy. Uh in the article he calls for an internal Fed review of its policy and all of the things it does and even suggests that the r ...

Market Overview - Wall Street has continued its bull run in 2025, with the S&P 500 recording 20 all-time highs year to date, including five in August alone [1] - Historically, September is the worst-performing month for U.S. equities, with an average decline of 0.7% since 1950, and a more pronounced average decline of 2% over the last 10 years [2] Investment Recommendations - It is advisable to invest in low-beta, high-yielding stocks with a favorable Zacks Rank, including Assurant Inc. (AIZ), Hasbro Inc. (HAS), The Mosaic Co. (MOS), Virtu Financial Inc. (VIRT), and Houlihan Lokey Inc. (HLI), all of which have a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) [3][10] Assurant Inc. (AIZ) - Assurant is focused on both inorganic and organic growth strategies, expecting adjusted EBITDA to increase modestly in 2025, driven by improved performance in Global Housing and growth in Global Lifestyle [13] - The company has an expected revenue growth rate of 5.7% and an earnings growth rate of 5.8% for the current year, with a Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings improving by 7.6% over the last 30 days [15] Hasbro Inc. (HAS) - Hasbro is concentrating on high-margin segments such as Wizards, Licensing, and Digital, which are expected to support bottom-line growth [16] - The company anticipates that digital gaming and licensing partnerships will contribute about 25% of corporate revenues by 2027, with an expected revenue growth rate of 6.6% and an earnings growth rate of 21.5% for the current year [19] The Mosaic Co. (MOS) - The Mosaic is expected to benefit from higher demand for fertilizers, with strong grower economics and crop commodity prices driving global fertilizer demand [20] - The company has an expected revenue growth rate of 16.4% and an earnings growth rate of 60.1% for the current year, with a Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings improving by 13.2% over the last 30 days [22] Virtu Financial Inc. (VIRT) - Virtu Financial's diversified business model supports sustainable long-term growth, with ongoing cost-control initiatives improving adjusted net margins [24] - The company has an expected revenue growth rate of 18.9% and an earnings growth rate of 33.8% for the current year, with a Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings improving by 17.9% over the last 60 days [25] Houlihan Lokey Inc. (HLI) - Houlihan Lokey is a global investment bank specializing in mergers and acquisitions, capital solutions, and financial advisory services [26] - The company has an expected revenue growth rate of 13.1% and an earnings growth rate of 21.9% for the current year, with a Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings improving by 6.7% over the last 60 days [27]

So let's start with the latest. We're hearing reports that the treasury secretary could begin in his Fed chair as soon as this week. Who, in your mind do you want to see taking over from Chairman Powell.I'm not I'm not going to comment on individual candidates, obviously. But Jay Powell term as chairman ends in May. And so it makes sense that they should start the interview process.I think the main thing for the leader, the next leader of the Fed, has to be somebody who has strong grounding in economics and ...

Interest Rate Environment & Economic Outlook - The company believes higher interest rates are likely to persist for an extended period [3][6] - The company's portfolio companies are experiencing double-digit growth, indicating a sound and solid economy [5] - The company expresses confidence in the Fed's ability to navigate the rate environment [6] - The company views current market volatility and concerns about Fed independence as "noise," emphasizing the underlying strength of the economy [7][8][12] Private Markets & Retirement Plans - The company acknowledges a generational shift towards increased accessibility of private investments, including potential inclusion in 401(k) plans [2][13][14] - The company advocates for a cautious approach to expanding private investment access, emphasizing the importance of walking before running [14] - The company highlights the historical outperformance of private lending compared to liquid alternatives [16] - The company stresses the need for robust disclosure and regulation in private markets to mitigate risks such as fraud [17] - The company cautions against a potential flood of retail capital into private equity, which could create opportunities for existing firms to exit less desirable investments at the expense of retail investors [22][23] - The company suggests starting with lower volatility, safer private investment options like private credit and real assets, emphasizing a prudent and well-regulated approach [23][24]

Market Trends & Dynamics - Gold hit a record high of $3,005 hundred (300,500) amid expectations of Fed rate cuts and concerns over central bank independence [1] - Silver saw gains at 40% [6] - Investors are filing money into gold while long maturity bonds enter their worst month [35] - Expectations for the Fed is more than 100 basis points towards mid-2026 [6] Financial Performance & Indicators - Stoxx 50 future is down by 02% [2] - US futures are pointing a little lower by 10% [2] - 10-year Treasury yields are up three basis points [3] - Gold is up more than 30% year-to-date [3] - U K 30-year climbing to 5 66% the highest since 1998 [109] - Nestle stock is down over 3% due to CEO change [110] Company Specific News - Nestle's CEO exited over a workplace affair after one year in the job [29] - Deutsche Bank rejoined the Stoxx 50, while Stellantis exited [34] - Deutsche Bank shares have regained their spot in the Euro Stoxx 50 [141] Geopolitical & Economic Factors - Russia signed a legal binding agreement to build the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline, increasing annual Russian flows by another 10 billion cubic meters by 2027 [31] - A potential government shutdown is coming up in the US [20] - The Danish leadership tries to move further away from using any Russian gas [34] - The U K 30-year has the highest yields since 1998 at 5 66% [109]

A Few More Thoughts on Fed Independence https://t.co/V5NAmbNOMO ...

>> THIS IS "BALANCE OF POWER," LIVE FROM WASHINGTON, D. C. JOE: FROM BLOOMBERG'S WASHINGTON TV STUDIOS TO OUR TV AND RADIO AUDIENCES, WELCOME TO "BALANCE OF POWER." I'M JOE MATHIEU.PRESIDENT TRUMP CONSIDERING OPTIONS TO EXTEND HIS INFLUENCE OVER THE FED. A BLOOMBERG NEWS SCOOP HOURS AFTER THE PRESIDENT MOVED TO FIRE FED GOVERNOR LISA COOK. >> AN INFRACTION, SHE CANNOT HAVE AN INFRACTION.ESPECIALLY THAT INFRACTION BECAUSE SHE IS IN GEORGIA. MORTGAGES. WE NEED PEOPLE THAT ARE 100% ABOVE BOARD.JOE: SHE WILL NO ...

Market Trends & Fed Independence - The report discusses the relationship between markets and the Federal Reserve's independence [1] Bloomberg Surveillance - The content originates from Bloomberg Surveillance [1]