Investment Rating - The report indicates a modest overall fiscal impulse from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), suggesting a cautious investment outlook for the affected sectors [5][6][27]. Core Insights - The OBBBA is expected to provide significant cash flow benefits primarily through upfront R&D expensing and bonus depreciation, particularly benefiting sectors like technology, communication services, and healthcare [5][10][12]. - The fiscal impulse from the OBBBA is projected to add approximately 0.4 percentage points to real GDP in 2026, although this is not sufficient to offset drags from trade and immigration policies [27][45][57]. - The report identifies potential beneficiaries among companies with substantial R&D and capital expenditures, focusing on those with significant pre-tax earnings and meaningful cash taxes [5][24][25]. Summary by Sections Fiscal Implications - The OBBBA implies higher incremental deficits than previously anticipated, with a projected 2026 deficit of 7.1% of GDP, influenced by increased tariff revenues [6][12][59]. - The bill's provisions are expected to lead to front-loaded deficits and back-loaded surpluses, indicating a short-term fiscal impulse that may later turn into a fiscal drag [5][38][57]. Sectoral Impacts - Clean Tech: The final bill is viewed positively for most subsectors, alleviating investor concerns regarding the repeal of IRA tax credits [7]. - Consumer: Smaller cuts to SNAP in the final bill reduce headwinds for packaged foods, beverages, retail, and restaurants [7]. - Software: The reinstatement of upfront R&D expensing is likely to provide a cash flow tailwind for large-cap corporates [7][10]. Tax Provisions - Upfront R&D expensing allows companies to accelerate cash tax savings, particularly benefiting sectors like tech and healthcare [10][12]. - The reinstatement of 100% first-year bonus depreciation for qualified property and equipment is expected to positively impact capital-intensive sectors such as aerospace and defense, telecom, and energy [10][12]. Cash Flow and Earnings - The report emphasizes that the majority of OBBBA policies will impact cash flows rather than reported earnings, with significant cash tax savings anticipated in the near term [8][10][12]. - The cash tax rate is expected to potentially reach new lows due to the reinstated and expanded expensing provisions [9][12]. Deficit and Rates - The report notes that concerns regarding fiscal policy under the new administration have somewhat diminished, with the 10-year yield remaining below 4.50% [14][57]. - The OBBBA is projected to result in a lower fiscal deficit in 2025 compared to prior forecasts, while maintaining a broadly unchanged deficit forecast for 2026 [59][60].

Bitcoin Market Analysis - USG (美国政府) 积累比特币以缓解财政问题，对市场和比特币有利 [1] - USG (美国政府) 允许财政前景持续恶化，对个人不利，但对比特币有利 [1] - 行业建议购买比特币 [1]

Monetary Policy & Tariffs - The market initially anticipated a rate cut in July, but it's now less likely due to tariff uncertainty [2] - The Fed is likely to wait until August 1st to assess tariff rates and economic impact before potentially acting in September [3] - The speaker suggests that the "price shock" from tariffs is largely in the past, as businesses have had time to adjust [5][6] Economic Outlook - US demand is solid but sluggish, with GDP around 1% [2] - Fiscal policy is now neutral or stimulative, reducing recession odds [7] - Deficits and the 10-year Treasury yield are expected to remain elevated [8] Business & Market Impact - Companies are expected to adapt to low to mid-teens tariffs if the rates are clear [3] - Corporate earnings are expected to be resilient, supported by stimulus measures [8] - Accelerated depreciation, tax on tips, and tax on overtime should provide a tailwind for businesses [9] - Businesses are cautious due to uncertainty but relatively optimistic about the future [9]

U.S. Fiscal Situation & Debt Concerns - The U.S federal budget is on an unsustainable path, potentially leading to rapid financial instability if spending issues are not addressed [1] - America's borrowing levels are currently the same size as the entire economy and are expected to skyrocket [2] - There is a greater than 50% chance of experiencing a financial trauma related to the deficit or debt levels within three years if the issues are not addressed [11] - The U.S is expected to spend nearly $1 trillion on interest payments this year due to soaring debt and higher rates [24] - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) expects net interest costs in 2025 to surpass spending on Medicare, Medicaid, and national defense [24] - The cost to service the U.S debt is expected to be 18% of total tax revenue this year, compared to less than 10% in 2022 [25] Potential Consequences & Risks - Unsustainable fiscal policy could lead to a collapse in fixed income and bond markets within 20 years [8][9] - The U.S may resort to printing money to cover its debt, potentially leading to inflation [10] - Rising borrowing costs could negatively affect the health and growth of the U.S economy [23][24] - Unchecked debt levels risk leaving a weaker economy to future generations [30] International Implications - International holdings of U.S treasuries were near a record $9 trillion in April [40] - China, while one of the largest foreign holders of U.S treasuries, has been steadily reducing its holdings [39][40] - Japan holds more than $1 trillion worth of U.S debt, the most of any foreign country [42]

UK Economic & Political Uncertainty - Keir Starmer's initial reluctance to support Rachel Reeves raises questions about internal party dynamics and potential leadership challenges [1][2] - Speculation suggests a possible change in Chancellor of the Exchequer, potentially impacting market confidence and government stability [3] - The government's backtracking on proposed welfare changes reveals a £5 billion fiscal hole, hindering economic growth and tax cut promises [5] Market Reaction & Fiscal Policy - The UK market faces potential instability, reminiscent of the "Liz Truss" era, with concerns over unfunded tax cuts and bond market reactions [4][6] - Rachel Reeves' credibility with the bond market is crucial; her departure could trigger increased speculation and market volatility [7][8] - The ability to grow the UK economy and avoid tax increases is uncertain, given the government's recent policy setbacks [5][6] Budget & Economic Outlook - The upcoming budget, to be presented by either Rachel Reeves or a new Chancellor, faces significant challenges in achieving economic growth without raising taxes [6] - Failure to pass proposed changes raises concerns about the government's ability to manage the economy and fulfill its promises [5][6] - The UK is in a "waiting period," with close attention on key figures and their potential impact on economic policy [4][5]

Fiscal Unsustainability & Debt - US national debt is a staggering $37 trillion, and a proposed bill could add at least $3 trillion more over the next decade [3] - The bill under discussion is projected to increase deficits by approximately $4 trillion [8][19][20] - The US is on a fiscally unsustainable trajectory, with Social Security and Medicare facing potential shortfalls in less than a decade [7] - Increased debt could lead to higher interest rates for consumers and the government, impacting borrowing costs for cars, homes, and credit cards [4] Impact of Proposed Legislation - The bottom 40% of the population is expected to be worse off as a result of the bill, potentially losing health insurance and access to food stamps [9][21] - Over 10 million people are likely to lose their healthcare due to the proposed legislation [5] - The bottom 10% could be $700 worse off annually, while the top 1% may receive a $30,000 tax cut, described as a reverse Robin Hood effect [21] Trade War & Inflation - Trade wars and tariffs are expected to worsen inflation [5] - The Federal Reserve (Fed) indicated it would have cut interest rates if not for the uncertainty caused by tariffs and the trade war [5][23] Global Confidence & US Economy - There's a growing concern about declining global confidence in the US's ability to repay its debts [11] - The Fed paused on lowering interest rates due to the uncertainty caused by the Trump administration's sweeping trade policy [25]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The global economic outlook remains uncertain due to ongoing US tariffs and geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Iran and its nuclear ambitions [3][4][24] - US tariffs are expected to have a significant impact on both US and global growth, with a projected decline in global GDP from 2.8% in 2024 to 2.5% in 2025 [8][22] - The average effective tariff rate for US consumers has reached 15.8%, the highest since 1936, indicating a substantial increase in trade costs [9][46] Summary by Sections Key Forecasts - Global GDP growth is forecasted to slow from 2.8% in 2024 to 2.5% in 2025 and further to 2.3% in 2026 [22] - Developed economies are expected to grow at a slower pace compared to emerging markets, with the US GDP growth projected at 1.8% for 2025 [22] Economic Environment - The report highlights the volatility in global trade data due to frontloading ahead of US tariffs, which has led to a surge in imports followed by a sharp decline [12][52] - US tariffs are anticipated to slow trade growth, with global trade growth projected at just 1.8% in 2025 and 0.6% in 2026 [12][71] Tariff Implications - US tariffs are described as a multi-purpose tool that will likely lead to higher inflation and lower growth in the US, with ongoing uncertainty regarding future tariff negotiations [11][50] - The report notes that countries with lower exposure to US tariffs may benefit, particularly those positioned to supply components currently sourced from mainland China [13][74] Consumer Spending and Inflation - US consumer spending is expected to slow due to weaker employment and slower real wage growth, while inflation pressures may persist despite a general slowdown in growth [15][16] - The report anticipates sticky core inflation in the US, influenced by supply shocks from tariffs and lower immigration [16] Central Bank Actions - The Federal Reserve and European Central Bank are expected to pause rate changes during the summer, amidst ongoing global economic uncertainty [17][31] - Divergences in central bank policies are noted, with the Fed likely to cut rates modestly by the end of 2026 [17] Fiscal Policy and Trade Negotiations - Ongoing US fiscal negotiations are highlighted as critical, with potential implications for economic growth depending on the outcomes [18][19] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring trade negotiations and their impact on global economic dynamics [20][33]

RT apewood (@apewoodx)2020 - 2021:- fiscal printer brrr- monetary policy brrreasy fiscal + easy monetary policy = perfect storm2022 - 2024:- fiscal printer brrr- monetary policy tight (fed hiking, flipped in 2022 and game over bubble valuations)- we had glimpse into fed in cutting mode in late 2024 but they quickly flipped back hawkish early 2025easy fiscal + tight monetary policy = not the best conditionsEarly 2025:- fiscal printer - people believed the govt was going to balance the budget (tighter fiscal) ...

The UK government has been forced to U-turn yet again on an unpopular policy, this time by its own members. Given all the talk of fiscal black holes less than a year ago, how will the chancellor make the sums add up now? https://t.co/B0tDoKXoL4 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Tariff uncertainty is significantly influencing the economic outlook, with a notable impact on inflation and fiscal policy [4][10][18] - The tariffs imposed are expected to show a clearer effect on core inflation data starting from July 2024, with projected increases in inflation rates across various countries [10][16] - The net effect of tariffs is anticipated to lift the Federal Funds rate, indicating a tightening of monetary policy [27][29] Summary by Sections Tariff Impact - The report outlines various tariffs imposed on sectors such as steel, aluminum, autos, and auto parts, detailing their base rates and exemptions [8] - The first-round impact of tariffs on US core PCE prices is estimated at 1.48%, with specific contributions from different tariff categories [16] Inflation Projections - Inflation rates are projected to rise, with the US experiencing a significant increase from 2.2% in January 2025 to 7.0% in April 2025, reflecting the impact of tariffs [10][29] - Core PCE inflation is expected to reach 3.3% in 2025, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [29] Fiscal Policy - US fiscal policy is described as net contractionary due to the impact of tariffs, with significant increases in the deficit projected from 2025 to 2034 [18][23] - The report highlights the expected fiscal deficits in the Eurozone, which are less than half of those in the US, suggesting a different fiscal landscape [76] Economic Growth - The report anticipates a modest growth in real GDP, with projections of 1.0% in 2025 and 1.7% in 2026, reflecting the broader economic conditions influenced by tariffs [29] - Unemployment rates are expected to rise slightly, indicating potential labor market challenges [29] Market Sentiment - There is a noted shift in capital flows from the US to Europe, driven by changing investor sentiment and economic conditions [97][99] - Despite high policy uncertainty, European confidence indicators have not deteriorated as significantly as those in the US, suggesting a relative resilience in the Eurozone [35][70]