Not in the Shanghai, Shenzhen. And here in Hong Kong, you're watching the China show. We are live for you at the Asia Financial Forum.I'm Yvonne Man. What. David English.Good morning. We are counting down to the open of markets in greater china. Let's get to your top stories today.We're looking at currency markets. The yen extending its gains, but traders on intervention alert after the prime minister's warning and signs of possible U.S. backing. Gold, as you can see, topping $5,000 for the very first time. ...

Market Overview - The market is experiencing significant volatility, akin to a person with sudden mood changes, influenced by various headlines and events, particularly from Davos and Japan [2][3] - The VIX and move index have shown high movements, indicating increased market fluctuations [2] Defensive Strategies - In the current market, a tactical approach is necessary, with an emphasis on defensive positions in investment portfolios to manage volatility [3] - Traditional defensive stocks, such as staples, have underperformed, suggesting a need to look elsewhere for defensive investments [4][5] - Companies with low price-to-earnings ratios, strong cash flows, and solid balance sheets are recommended for defensive plays, particularly in the financial and industrial sectors [5] Financial Sector Insights - Regional banks, particularly PNC, are showing strong performance, with PNC reporting record revenue growth and a 21% year-over-year EPS growth [6][7] - The efficiency ratio is crucial for regional banks, and PNC is improving in this area, making it a strong candidate for investment [7] Economic Challenges - The upcoming earnings season is viewed as a significant challenge, alongside potential government shutdowns and persistent inflation concerns [8][9] - The Super Core inflation rate is reported at 3.3% year-over-year, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures [9] - Concerns regarding the labor market persist, adding to the economic challenges that could affect market performance [10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that U.S. consumer prices are expected to accelerate in December due to the reversal of factors that had previously suppressed inflation during the government shutdown in November [1] - The December Consumer Price Index (CPI) is projected to rise by 0.3%, driven by increases in food and energy prices, particularly electricity costs related to data centers [1] - The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, is anticipated to increase by 0.3% in December, with a year-over-year growth of 2.7%, slightly up from 2.6% in November [1] Group 2 - The government shutdown, lasting 43 days, disrupted the collection of price data for October, leading to the use of estimation methods for the November CPI report, particularly affecting rental data [2] - Despite the successful collection of price data in November, the data was skewed due to holiday discount promotions, which may have distorted the rental and goods price indicators [2] - Economists expect that the impact of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration is gradually being reflected in inflation, with consumer prices expected to rise significantly in the coming months [3] Group 3 - The current high inflation rate is predicted to weaken political support for President Trump, potentially becoming a significant political issue by 2026 as he and his party strive to maintain control of Congress [4] - Various goods prices, including new cars, furniture, and clothing, are expected to see accelerated increases, while the rental market may continue to show weakness [4] - The relationship between Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and President Trump has become strained, leading economists to believe that interest rates will not be lowered before Powell's term ends in May [4][5]

Core Insights - Nearly half (49%) of U.S. adults reported being worse off financially in 2025, primarily due to unexpected expenses [1] - Economic challenges such as high inflation, tariff policies, a prolonged government shutdown, and rising unemployment have significantly impacted household finances [1] - Two-thirds (67%) of respondents indicated that economic conditions affected their spending habits [1] Regrets and Action Steps - The top regret among Americans in 2025 was not saving enough money, with nearly four in ten (38%) expressing this sentiment [4] - More than one in four (28%) Americans regretted making impulse purchases driven by emotions [6] 2026 Action Steps for Saving Money - Build a budget to identify available savings [8] - Set up automatic transfers from checking to savings accounts after each paycheck [8] - Start small with savings, even $25 per paycheck can accumulate to $650 annually for biweekly earners [8] 2026 Action Steps for Reducing Impulse Purchases - Implement a 24-hour cooling-off period before making non-essential purchases over $50 [9] - Track impulsive buying patterns to understand triggers [9] - Use cash for discretionary spending to limit overspending [9]

Market Performance - Wall Street experienced modest gains in Q4 2025, with the S&P 500 up 1.9%, Dow Jones up 3.3%, and Nasdaq Composite up 2.1% [1] - The small-cap index Russell 2000 increased by 1.6% during the same period [1] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve implemented three rate cuts in 2025, starting in September, with two occurring in Q4 [2] - The Fed's outlook for 2026 remains cautious, projecting only one rate cut next year, maintaining the Fed Funds rate at 3.4% [3] Economic Impact of Government Shutdown - The longest U.S. government shutdown began on October 1, 2025, and lasted until November 12, 2025, significantly halting economic progress in Q4 [4] AI Industry Developments - OpenAI formed multibillion-dollar partnerships with companies like Oracle, NVIDIA, AMD, and Broadcom in 2025 [5] - SoftBank sold 32.1 million shares of NVIDIA and reduced its stake in T-Mobile, raising $9.17 billion to fund a $22.5 billion investment in OpenAI [6] AI Market Concerns - OpenAI's CEO indicated that the AI market may be in a bubble, raising investor caution due to concerns about circular financing and investment payoffs [7] Cryptocurrency Trends - Bitcoin prices fell approximately 6% in 2025, starting at about $93K, peaking at $126K in October, and declining towards year-end [8] ETF Performance - Silver ETFs saw significant gains, with abrdn Physical Silver Shares ETF up 52.1% and iShares Silver Trust up 52.0%, driven by supply constraints and industrial demand [11] - Biotech ETFs also performed well, with Virtus LifeSci Biotech Clinical Trials ETF up 43.7% and ALPS Medical Breakthroughs ETF up 31.8%, supported by favorable regulatory developments and funding conditions [13] - Lithium ETFs experienced growth, with Sprott Lithium Miners ETF up 33.4% and iShares Lithium Miners and Producers ETF up 31.4%, driven by rising demand for electric vehicles and energy storage [15]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) and its implications for inflation trends in the economy, particularly focusing on the November CPI report and its biases due to the government shutdown. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **CPI Biases**: The November CPI report exhibited a downward bias due to three main factors: - Carrying forward April rent levels for October, leading to a 0.09% bias on the headline CPI and 0.12% on the core CPI [doc id='38'] - Carrying forward August price levels for items on a bimonthly sampling, resulting in a 0.08% bias on the headline CPI and 0.10% on the core CPI [doc id='39'] - A late start to November sampling on November 14, which biased the CPI down by approximately 0.05% to 0.10% for the headline CPI [doc id='46']. 2. **CPI Changes**: The November CPI showed a significant decline, with the core CPI dropping from 3.02% in September to 2.63% in November, attributed to the government shutdown's impact [doc id='5']. 3. **Projected Inflation Rates**: - Core PCE inflation is projected to be 2.8% in 2025, 3.0% in 2026, and gradually decreasing to 2.0% by 2028 [doc id='3']. - The December CPI is expected to show a 0.44% increase, with core CPI inflation projected to rise to 2.87% [doc id='5']. 4. **Vehicle Prices**: New vehicle prices remained stable despite the expiration of the electric vehicle tax credit, indicating minimal impact from this policy change [doc id='20']. 5. **Quality of CPI Data**: The quality of the November CPI data was noted to be poorer than usual, with many series lacking sufficient observations to meet publication standards, reminiscent of early COVID-19 reporting [doc id='5']. Additional Important Points 1. **Sampling Methodology**: The BLS did not attempt a "good faith" estimate for missing October data, opting instead for carry-forward imputation, which contributed to the downward bias in the CPI [doc id='8']. 2. **Sector-Specific Insights**: - The CPI for new vehicles has shown little change despite rising tariffs, indicating a disconnect between tariff impacts and consumer prices [doc id='29']. - The difference in rent growth between single-family and multifamily units suggests ongoing disparities in the housing market, potentially affecting future CPI calculations [doc id='21']. 3. **Future Projections**: The biases observed in the November CPI are expected to reverse in subsequent months, particularly with strong increases anticipated in the April CPI release [doc id='38']. 4. **Economic Context**: The discussion highlights the broader economic implications of inflation trends, consumer behavior, and the impact of government policies on price levels, emphasizing the need for careful monitoring of CPI data moving forward [doc id='6']. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state of the U.S. inflation landscape and its implications for future economic conditions.

French lawmakers are expected Tuesday to approve a bill averting a government shutdown after weeks of debate in Parliament failed to reach agreement on a new budget https://t.co/iTNgYPwEbA ...

Core Insights - The grocery store sector is experiencing inflationary pressures, with food prices rising faster than the overall Consumer Price Index (CPI) [1][3] - The USDA's Food Price Outlook has been halted due to the government shutdown, leaving grocery stores without updated data [2] - In August 2025, food prices increased by 3.2% compared to August 2024, while the all-items CPI rose by 2.9% [3] Industry Trends - Higher food prices are leading consumers to be more selective in their purchases, potentially reducing overall grocery store revenue and profits [4][5] - Grocery chains are responding to economic challenges by cutting costs, including job eliminations and store closures [6][7] Company Actions - Albertsons has eliminated over 380 jobs and plans to close a net of 20 stores by the end of 2025 [6] - Kroger announced the closure of 9 fulfillment centers, affecting nearly 1,700 jobs, as part of a strategy to streamline operations following the failed merger with Albertsons [7][10] - Ahold Delhaize USA is closing six e-commerce fulfillment centers to transition to a local, store-first fulfillment network, with closures expected by early 2026 [12][13] Financial Implications - Ahold Delhaize will incur an estimated $35 million non-cash impairment charge for the closure of five Giant Company facilities and a $15 million charge for the Giant Food Manassas facility [18] - The grocery chains are adapting to customer preferences for faster delivery options by continuing partnerships with third-party fulfillment services like Instacart and DoorDash [16]

Core Insights - U.S. retail and restaurant sales remained unchanged in October compared to September, indicating a moderation in consumer spending due to concerns over rising prices and economic uncertainties following a summer spending spree [1][3]. Retail Sales Performance - A significant factor contributing to the stagnant sales was a 1.6% decline in sales at motor vehicle and auto parts dealerships, primarily due to the end of federal subsidies that had previously boosted demand for electric vehicles. Excluding this category, retail sales increased by 0.4% [2]. - The overall flat spending in October was below economists' expectations and followed a revised 0.1% increase in September. Retail sales had previously surged by 0.6% in July and August and 1% in June [3]. Consumer Behavior and Economic Indicators - The retail sales report suggests that consumers are being selective in their spending, with many households facing high prices for essentials like groceries and rent, compounded by tariffs on imported goods [5]. - The latest job report indicates a deteriorating employment situation, with a net loss of 105,000 jobs in October, which could negatively impact consumer spending and the broader economy [7]. Sector-Specific Sales Trends - Sales in clothing and accessories stores rose by 0.9%, while furniture and home furnishing stores saw a 2.3% increase, likely driven by rising prices due to tariffs. Online retailers experienced a 1.8% sales increase, and department stores reported a 4.9% rise. However, restaurant sales, a key indicator of discretionary spending, fell by 0.4% [6]. Outlook for Holiday Sales - Despite the disappointing retail sales report for October, underlying details suggest potential for improved consumer spending in the fourth quarter, particularly as retailers prepare for the holiday shopping season with extended hours and promotions [4].

Group 1: Federal Reserve Leadership - Former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh is a leading candidate to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed chair, alongside National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett [2][3] - President Trump emphasized the importance of the next Fed chair consulting with him on interest rate decisions, asserting that his voice should be considered [2] Group 2: FDA Travel During Government Shutdown - A CNBC investigation revealed that 31 FDA staff members traveled to Singapore for a conference during a record-setting government shutdown, costing the agency over $250,000, or nearly $8,000 per attendee [4][5] - The trip was deemed "mission critical" by the FDA, despite the agency facing staffing and resource constraints due to the 43-day shutdown and a proposed 11.5% budget cut [5] Group 3: U.S. Shipbuilding Industry - The Trump administration aims to revitalize the U.S. shipbuilding industry, which currently lags behind China, capturing only 25% of new ship orders and having significantly less building capacity [7][8] - To enhance domestic shipbuilding, the administration is seeking partnerships with international companies, such as South Korea's Hanwha, indicating that foreign expertise is necessary for success [8] Group 4: Netflix and "Stranger Things" - Netflix is set to release the final episodes of "Stranger Things," marking a significant milestone for the streaming platform, which has developed numerous partnerships related to the series [10][11] - The franchise is viewed as a pivotal moment for Netflix, comparable to a "Star Wars" moment, due to its cultural impact and contribution to live events [11]