Core Viewpoint - The proposal to cap credit card rates at 10% may not address the root causes of the affordability crisis, as rising prices of homes and other goods are more significant factors than interest rates [1][3]. Group 1: Credit Card Rates - A cap on credit card rates could reduce access to credit for individuals with lower credit scores, potentially harming those the proposal aims to help [2]. - The discussion around credit card rates is overshadowed by more pressing affordability issues related to rising prices [3]. Group 2: Housing Affordability - The median home price increased from $274,900 in Q4 2019 to $414,900 in Q4 2025, significantly impacting affordability more than the rise in mortgage rates, which increased from 3.90% to 6.16% [4][5]. - Monthly mortgage payments for a home priced at $414,900 would be $2,024 at the current rate of 6.16%, compared to $1,566 at 3.90%, illustrating the greater impact of higher home prices on affordability [5]. - To return monthly mortgage payments to 2019 levels, household incomes would need to rise by 56% or mortgage rates would need to drop to 2.65%, indicating that significant changes are unlikely in the near future [6].

Core Viewpoint - US consumer price inflation eased more than expected in January, providing some relief to markets, but underlying price pressures remain firm, indicating that interest rates are likely to stay unchanged for now [1] Group 1: Inflation Data - Consumer prices rose by 2% in January, according to data from the Labor Department [1] Group 2: Market Implications - The easing of inflation offers markets some relief, but strong job reports suggest that interest rates may not change in the near term [1]

Core Insights - US inflation moderated to 2.4% in January, following significant price fluctuations due to tariffs imposed by the Trump administration last year [1] - The consumer price index (CPI) rose by 0.2% from December to January, while the core CPI increased by 0.3% [1] - Economists had anticipated a slight easing in prices, projecting an annual inflation rate of 2.5% [2] Economic Indicators - Inflation rates fluctuated throughout the previous year, reaching a low of 2.3% in April and climbing to 3% by September, before settling at 2.7% in November and December [2] - The Federal Reserve is monitoring inflation closely to assess its impact on interest rates, with uncertainty surrounding the direction of monetary policy ahead of the March board meeting [3] - Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that the effects of tariffs are still influencing prices, expecting a one-time increase before stabilizing [3][4] Labor Market Insights - The labor market showed signs of strength in January, although job growth for 2025 was revised down to 181,000 jobs, significantly lower than the 2 million jobs added in 2024 [4] Political Context - Recent polling indicates a decline in voter approval of Trump's economic management, with only 37% of American voters approving of his performance, the lowest in his terms [6] - The decline in approval ratings is attributed to Trump's handling of inflation, which poses challenges for Republicans ahead of the midterm elections [7] - In response to growing concerns about affordability, the White House has introduced measures targeting housing prices, credit card debt, and drug prices [7]

Market Overview - U.S. stock futures showed volatility, with major indices mixed following a lower close on Thursday [1] - Investors are anticipating January's inflation data, with estimates suggesting core CPI may drop to 2.52%, aligning with pre-COVID averages [1] Treasury Yields - The 10-year Treasury bond yield is at 4.12%, while the two-year bond yield stands at 3.47% [2] - Market expectations indicate a 92.1% likelihood that the Federal Reserve will maintain current interest rates in March [2] Index Performance - Dow Jones decreased by 0.13%, S&P 500 increased by 0.02%, Nasdaq 100 rose by 0.13%, and Russell 2000 fell by 0.08% [3] Stocks in Focus - **Roku (ROKU)**: Long-term price trend remains strong, but short and medium-term trends are weak [3] - **Arista Networks (ANET)**: Strong price trend across short, medium, and long terms, with solid growth ranking [4] - **Tri Pointe Homes (TPH)**: Surged 25.79% after announcing an all-cash strategic combination with Sumitomo Forestry, maintaining a strong price trend [7] - **Expedia Group (EXPE)**: Dropped 4.97% after fourth-quarter earnings report, despite beating estimates; maintains a stronger long-term trend but weak short and medium-term trends [8] - **HIVE Digital Technologies**: Weaker price trend across all time frames [5] Economic Insights - Scott Wren from Wells Fargo maintains a positive outlook for the U.S. economy, raising the growth estimate to 2.9% [9] - Wren views market corrections as buying opportunities, emphasizing broadening performance beyond technology sectors [10][11] Upcoming Economic Data - Investors are focused on the release of January's consumer price index data scheduled for 8:30 a.m. ET [12] Commodities and Global Markets - Crude oil futures increased by 0.35% to approximately $63.06 per barrel [13] - Gold Spot price rose by 0.91% to around $4,966.59 per ounce [13] - Bitcoin traded 0.81% lower at $66,785.65 per coin [13] Corporate Earnings and Monetary Policy - Anticipation of a fourth consecutive year of record earnings for the S&P 500 [15] - Expectations for further Federal Reserve easing and rate cuts as the year progresses [15] - Preference for U.S. assets over international ones, particularly in sectors like Energy, Materials, and Industrials [15]

Market Overview - US stocks experienced a rise on Friday, with the S&P 500 gaining approximately 0.6%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite increased by roughly 0.4% and 0.5% respectively, despite being on track for weekly losses [1] Inflation Data - The Consumer Price Index indicated that consumer prices rose by 0.2% in January compared to the previous month and increased by 2.4% year-over-year, reflecting a cooler-than-expected inflation reading [2] Federal Reserve Expectations - The inflation report is expected to influence Federal Reserve policy, with traders increasing bets on a potential quarter-point interest rate cut in June, while most anticipate two cuts by the end of 2026 [3] Sector Performance - The market saw significant selling pressure due to concerns about AI disruption affecting traditional sectors like real estate, logistics, and transportation, leading to sharp weekly losses for the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq [4] Earnings Reports - Applied Materials (AMAT) stock surged by up to 10% following a positive outlook driven by strong AI demand, while Pinterest (PINS) shares fell by as much as 20% due to revenue shortfalls and concerns over AI risks [5] - Rivian (RIVN) shares increased by over 25% after beating fourth-quarter earnings expectations, with plans for its R2 midsize model to be delivered before summer, and Moderna (MRNA) shares rose by 10% after exceeding quarterly revenue estimates due to strong sales of its Covid vaccine [6]

What's at stake for bond investors if the U.S. deficit soars to $3.1 trillion over the next decade - MarketWatch## Market Extra# What's at stake for bond investors if the U.S. deficit soars to $3.1 trillion over the next decade## 'The trajectory definitely looks dire,' researcher says of the U.S. fiscal outlookPublished: Feb. 12, 2026 at 1:55 p.m. ETShareResize---Listen(5 min)The Congressional Budget Office's latest forecasts are out on the U.S. government's deficit situation — and they don't look very good ...

Core Insights - Investors are closely monitoring the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which is expected to influence Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [1][4] - A strong jobs report indicated that the economy is not cooling sufficiently, leading to concerns about the Fed maintaining high interest rates [2][3] - The anticipated year-over-year inflation rate is projected to decrease to 2.5%, which could increase pressure on the Fed to consider rate cuts [4] Group 1: Market Reactions - The recent labor report showed an addition of 130,000 jobs, which was perceived negatively by the markets as it suggests the Fed may not lower rates soon [2][3] - Bitcoin is currently stabilizing around $68,500, influenced by macroeconomic factors and technical support levels [5] - A hot inflation report could lead to a decline in Bitcoin prices, while a cooler report might trigger a relief rally [5][6] Group 2: Expert Opinions - Derek Lim from Caladan emphasized that inflation metrics are currently more critical than employment data for market movements [4] - The market is experiencing volatility as traders prepare for the CPI release, with expectations of sharp price movements based on the inflation data [6]

Let's talk about Fed policy and more. Joining us now, Roger Ferguson, former vice chair and CNBC contributor. Roger, it is one of the uh uh features of this bond market today.The Fed has been cutting rates and the tenure really hasn't moved very much. What do you make of that. >> Look, I think a couple of things are going on.Um, as as Rick just said, where the action is for the Fed or the expectations from the market and the Fed is at the 2-year end. I think the tenure hasn't moved very much frankly and fur ...

Market Overview - U.S. stock futures rose on Thursday following a decline on Wednesday, driven by a strong January jobs report [1] - The Dow Jones index declined after a record-high close on Tuesday [1] - The 10-year Treasury bond yield was at 4.175%, while the two-year bond yield was at 3.502% [1] - The CME Group's FedWatch tool indicates a 94.1% likelihood of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in March [1] Index Performance - Dow Jones increased by 0.21% [2] - S&P 500 rose by 0.23% [2] - Nasdaq 100 gained 0.17% [2] - Russell 2000 saw an increase of 0.39% [2] Stocks in Focus - Micron (MU) maintains a strong price trend across short, medium, and long terms according to Benzinga's Edge Stock Rankings [2] - Novocure (NVCR) shows a strong price trend in the short and medium terms but a weaker trend in the long term [3] - Fastly (FSLY) maintains a strong price trend across all time frames [4] - McDonald's (MCD) also shows a strong price trend across short, medium, and long terms [5] - Applovin (APP) has a weak price trend across all time frames [6] Analyst Insights - Analysts at the Schwab Center for Financial Research noted that investors are awaiting the Consumer Price Index (CPI) release [7] - The market is pricing out rate cuts for this year following the jobs report [7] - The likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut next month dropped to 6% from 20% earlier in the week, with less than 60% chance of at least one rate cut by June [8] Economic Data - The three-month average of nonfarm payroll growth increased to 73,000 in January, the highest since February 2025 [9]

is joining us now is Julia Coronado, founder and president of Macro Policy Perspectives. And Julia, it's great to uh to see you. Um now, I think David Einhorn was basically making a call that says Kevin Walsh is kind of going to do the president's bidding and therefore he's in the job to cut rates.Uh but it would seem as if the data are kind of I I guess in the middle. Uh they're subject to interpretation in terms of whether the Fed needs to respond anytime soon or where even the neutral rate is. So, how di ...