CREDIT FIRM. VICTOR, WHAT YEAR IT HAS BEEN FOR CREDIT. THIS IS AN INDUSTRY THAT HAS BEEN IN FEARS DEFENSE OF ITSELF, BLUE OWL VOCALLY SAYING YOU ARE WRONG, JAMIE DIMON.THINGS ARE NOT WRONG. YOU MAY BE SIDE A LITTLE MORE WITH JAMIE DIMON IN THIS ARGUMENT. VICTOR: WE ARE LIVING IN A WORLD WHERE IT IS TRULY A K-SHAPED WORLD.TECH, DATA CENTERS, FINANCING THEM, BUILDING THEM, GOING OUT WITH THESE VALUATIONS, THAT IS A VERY HOT MARKET. THERE IS A WHOLE OTHER PIECE OF THE INDUSTRY, THE BOTTOM PART OF THE K. WHEN W ...

Core Viewpoint - The current economic landscape is characterized as a K-shaped economy, where certain sectors, particularly technology and data centers, are thriving, while others, such as manufacturing and chemicals, are experiencing significant downturns [3][4]. Group 1: Economic Conditions - The manufacturing sector in the U.S. has faced nine consecutive months of negative growth, indicating a recessionary trend [4]. - Despite the challenges in manufacturing, there is no expectation of an imminent large-scale recession, as the overall economic outlook remains cautious but stable [4][17]. - The leveraged credit market is under pressure due to higher interest rates and stagnant earnings in many businesses, necessitating a focus on capital restructuring [5][10]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - There are numerous companies with significant debt levels, particularly those with debts exceeding $2 billion, which are now trading at distressed prices, indicating potential investment opportunities for restructuring [9][13]. - Many businesses are over-leveraged and require additional capital to stabilize their balance sheets, presenting opportunities for private credit investments [11][13]. - The high-yield market is expected to see increased supply as hyperscalers are borrowing, which may lead to widening spreads in the absence of a recession [18]. Group 3: Regulatory Environment - There is growing attention from regulators regarding the need for stress testing in the credit market, similar to banking regulations, which could impact alternative lenders [14][15]. - The competitive landscape among lenders is shifting, with banks gaining more flexibility, potentially affecting the dynamics of private credit markets [15][16].

Group 1 - There are growing fears of a potential recession due to various economic indicators [1] - The job market is cooling at a rapid pace, indicating a slowdown in employment opportunities [1] - Consumer spending is softening, suggesting a decrease in economic activity and consumer confidence [1] - The ongoing trade war is contributing to higher economic uncertainty [1]

Core Insights - There are increasing concerns about a potential recession [1] - The job market is experiencing a rapid cooling [1] - Consumer spending is showing signs of softening [1] - The ongoing trade war is contributing to economic challenges [1]

The right investment can protect your portfolio regardless of what's ahead for the market.As we head into 2026, many Americans are feeling conflicted about the future.A recent survey from financial association MDRT found that around 80% of U.S. adults are at least slightly concerned about a recession. However, just over 44% of investors still feel optimistic about the stock market's next six months, according to the most recent weekly survey from the American Association of Individual Investors.So what shou ...

Our next guest says today's cut is an insurance cut against a weakening labor market. Let's bring in Claudia Som, chief economist at New Century Adviserss, creator of the SOM rule. Claudia, it's great to see you.Let me just set this up a little bit because we had Jason Ferman earlier saying we shouldn't cut because of inflation and because of the deficit. Those pressures are still too high. Um, obviously others are are more doubbish.They think that we can and should. Explain where you come down on this. >> ...

Market Outlook - Some analysts express skepticism about the S&P 500's ability to achieve a third consecutive year of 20% returns, with Wells Fargo's Scott Wren projecting a target of 6,800 for 2025, indicating a return closer to 14% [1] - Wells Fargo has set a target of 6,600 for the S&P 500 in 2025, suggesting an approximate 8% upside from current levels [5] - The S&P 500 has experienced a 28.3% gain since its late 2021 peak, factoring in the 2022 bear market [5] Investor Sentiment - As 2026 approaches, there is a growing sense of unease among investors, with some fearing an impending recession, leading to extreme measures such as converting a significant portion of retirement funds into cash [2] - Emotional decision-making in late-cycle environments can lead to significant consequences, emphasizing the importance of discipline in investment strategies [4] Historical Context - The recent market performance has been likened to the late 1990s, with a notable 44% increase since January 1, 2022, raising concerns about sustainability and potential corrections [6][7] - Legendary investors, including Warren Buffett, have shown caution, with Berkshire Hathaway recently selling tech shares and holding $360 billion in government T-bills [7]

RT blockgraze (@blockgraze)@blknoiz06 @plur_daddy rolling recession limits inflationK shape market good for risk ...

The Q4 CFO survey, it's back and we're asking the biggest corporate financial decision makers about their business, the economy, and how they're using artificial intelligence. Every quarter, we ask about risk. CFOs say currently the biggest risk to their business, it's consumer demand.41% with that answer tied for second would be Fed policy and overregulation, both at right around 14%. Still, CFOs seem confident on the strength of the economy with more than half saying the US will not experience a recession ...

Tom Lee has had a front row seat to more than a fair share of stock market pops and drops. Lee, a veteran Wall Street analyst who has tracked the stock market since the 1990s, is the founder of Fundstrat, a respected equity research firm that advises money managers and high-net worth investors. His extensive stock market experience means he has navigated the internet boom and bust, the Great Recession, the Covid pandemic, and 2022's bear market. Those experiences taught him valuable investing insights abo ...