First off, the president seems to think that this grouping uh this group getting together is, you know, kind of conspiring against America, obviously based on his post. What do you think this means that these countries who are largely making up those the bricks uh are getting together right now and being pretty clear they're not really worried about the Trump administration and Beijing and and the tensions there. >> Well, hey, you know, all you're missing in that photo ops is is Iran.But of course I think w ...

Core Points - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is reviewing its monetary policy strategy, tools, and communication practices, with significant progress noted towards revising the consensus statement on longer-run goals and monetary policy strategy [3] - Financial market developments indicate stable policy rate expectations, with equity prices increasing and credit spreads narrowing, reflecting a resilient U.S. economy [4][8] - Inflation remains elevated, with consumer price inflation estimated at 2.5% and core inflation at 2.7% as of June [15] - The labor market shows solid conditions, with an unemployment rate of 4.1% and average hourly earnings rising by 3.7% year-over-year [16] - Economic growth is projected to remain low, with real GDP growth expected to be modest through 2027, influenced by various factors including tariffs and financial conditions [35][44] Financial Market Developments - The expected path of the policy rate and longer-term Treasury yields remained largely unchanged, with equity prices increasing and credit spreads narrowing [4][6] - The S&P 500 index valuations are above long-run averages, driven by optimism in technology firms benefiting from AI adoption [8] - The dollar index has depreciated slightly, indicating relative stability in foreign holdings of U.S. assets [9] Economic Situation - Real GDP expanded at a slow pace in the first half of the year, with consumer spending growth slowing and residential investment declining [14][44] - Net exports contributed positively to GDP growth in the second quarter, with a significant decline in imports following earlier front-loading [18] - Foreign economic activity showed signs of slowing, particularly in Canada, while China's GDP continued to grow moderately [19] Labor Market Insights - The labor market remains tight, with low unemployment and solid job gains, although some indicators suggest a potential softening in labor demand [42] - The participation rate has slightly decreased, and the employment-to-population ratio remains unchanged [16] Inflation and Monetary Policy Outlook - Inflation is projected to rise in the near term, with tariff effects becoming more apparent, although longer-term expectations remain anchored [38][41] - The FOMC decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4¼ to 4½ percent, with a commitment to support maximum employment and return inflation to the 2% objective [60][55] - Participants noted the importance of monitoring incoming data to inform future monetary policy adjustments, particularly in light of elevated risks to both inflation and employment [51][56]

Company Overview - Trinity Asset Management was founded by Brian Gilmartin in May 1995, focusing on providing attention and service to individual investors and institutions overlooked by larger firms [1] - Brian Gilmartin has extensive experience in the investment industry, starting as a fixed-income/credit analyst and later managing equity and balanced accounts for clients [1] Professional Background - Brian Gilmartin has a BSBA in Finance from Xavier University and an MBA in Finance from Loyola University, with the CFA designation awarded in 1994 [1] - He has contributed to various financial publications, including TheStreet.com and Wall Street AllStars, and has been quoted in notable outlets like the Wall Street Journal [1]

The Port of Los Angeles seeing the best month for cargo volume in its history in July, reports executive Director Jane Soroka saying trade is front loading cargo ahead of tariffs caused a spike. Jane joins us now for more. Jane, welcome to the program, sir.There was a quote from you in the last few weeks that we were talking about around this table. It's been a rollercoaster ride all year long and the ride's not over yet. Jane, just take a moment just to describe what the last few months, in fact, what this ...

Industry Output - US industrial production declined in July [1] - Manufacturing output was restrained by cooler demand [1] Trade Policy Impact - Shifting trade policy restrained US industrial production [1]

Trade Policy Shift - The deal could shift trade policy from country-to-country negotiations to company negotiations [1] - The deal involves allowing chip exports to China in exchange for a cut of revenue [1] US-China Trade - President Trump's deal focuses on chip exports to China [1]

US-India Trade Relations - The US is considering imposing tariffs on Indian imports, potentially reaching a 50% rate, as a tool for foreign policy objectives [2] - Pharmaceuticals and electronics may be affected in the future, making negotiations challenging [3] - India is seen as a tough negotiator, maintaining high levels of protection on many markets with persistent high tariffs [9] - The Trump administration aims to force India to make systemic changes that have been problematic for a long time [10] - India might strike a deal that maintains high protection levels while giving the US something it can live with, similar to deals with other countries [11] India's Strategic Positioning - India prioritizes the interests of its farmers, fishermen, and dairy farmers, even at a potential cost [1] - India's purchase of Russian crude oil is a deeply structural issue for its economy [2] - India has a long history of nonalignment and is positioning itself for life outside the US sphere [7] - India is reaching out to countries like Brazil and China, which could threaten long-term US objectives [6] - President Trump opposes BRICS countries, including India, from countering US power or establishing a BRICS currency [8] Geopolitical Context - Traditional US allies are struggling to compromise with the White House [4] - The US administration has treated traditional allies more like adversaries [5] - During the Biden years, there was a lot of courting of India to act as a bulwark against China [5] - Narendra Modi will meet with Lula da Silva, with a first visit to China in seven years [6]

Core Viewpoint - Molson Coors has revised its financial outlook downward for the second time this year, attributing the decline to new aluminum tariffs that are increasing cost pressures on the beer industry [1][5]. Financial Outlook - The company expects net sales to decrease by 3% to 4% this year, a more significant drop than the previously forecasted 1% decline [1]. - Earnings before taxes are projected to fall by 12% to 15%, compared to earlier expectations of only minor decreases [2]. Impact of Tariffs - The increase in aluminum tariffs, which rose from 25% to 50%, has led to higher-than-expected indirect impacts on aluminum pricing, particularly affecting the Midwest Premium pricing for aluminum used in beer cans [3][12]. - The new tariffs apply broadly, affecting all suppliers, including traditional partners like Canada and Mexico [3]. Market Conditions - Beer sales are declining, with U.S. volumes dropping over 5% in the second quarter, as consumers shift towards alternatives like hard seltzers and craft cocktails [8]. - Total volumes in Western Hemisphere markets fell by 6.6% during the quarter, indicating widespread weakness in the beer category [9]. Competitive Landscape - The company is losing market share as competition intensifies, with European, Middle Eastern, African, and Asia-Pacific volumes declining nearly 8% [8]. - Bank of America has downgraded Molson Coors, citing structural headwinds in the beer industry and predicting a 4% decline in U.S. beer volumes this year [9]. Strategic Responses - Molson Coors is currently absorbing much of the increased aluminum costs rather than passing them on to consumers, which is impacting profit margins [6]. - The company is focusing on premium brands and forming partnerships, such as with Fever-Tree, to diversify its portfolio and offset mounting pressures [16].

Trade Policy - The European Union and Japan should recognize the underrated advantages of "defeat" in trade policy [1] - @clive_crook's opinion highlights this perspective [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **US labor market** and **monetary policy** implications, focusing on employment growth, unemployment rates, and inflation trends. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Unemployment Rate as a Key Metric** The Federal Reserve emphasizes that the unemployment rate is a better indicator of maximum employment than payroll growth or economic activity [10][12][21] 2. **Slower Employment Growth** The July employment report showed a weaker-than-expected increase in nonfarm payrolls, with a net downward revision of **258,000** jobs for the previous two months. The three-month moving average in payrolls is now **35,000** [8][17] 3. **Recession Risks** Elevated recession risks are noted, with trade policy uncertainty remaining high. Investors are advised to remain vigilant due to potential complacency in the market [8][39] 4. **Inflation and Monetary Policy Outlook** The Fed is expected to maintain interest rates without cuts until **March 2026**, with inflation pressures from tariffs likely to persist [8][11][22] 5. **Labor Market Dynamics** The labor market is described as being in balance, with both demand and supply for workers slowing. The participation rate has decreased to **62.2%**, indicating a potential chilling effect from immigration policies [10][16] 6. **Future Employment Projections** Payroll growth is anticipated to moderate significantly towards the end of the year, with the unemployment rate projected to rise to **4.4%** in Q4 2025 [24] 7. **Impact of Tariffs on Trade** Real imports surged by **37.9%** in Q1 2025 due to front-loading effects ahead of tariffs, but fell by **30.3%** in Q2, indicating a reversal in trade flows [40] 8. **Container Traffic Trends** Container traffic from China to the US has shown a decline, with total capacity down **11.2%** week-over-week and **21.4%** month-over-month, suggesting structural issues in trade volumes [46] Additional Important Insights 1. **Historical Context of Employment Data** Historical data shows no strong correlation between large downward revisions and subsequent payroll slowdowns, indicating that current trends may not necessarily predict future performance [20] 2. **Potential for Policy Adjustments** The Fed's reaction to employment data may shift if payroll growth continues to decline, potentially leading to earlier rate cuts than currently forecasted [32][33] 3. **Inflation Forecasts** The forecast for headline and core PCE inflation is projected to rise to **3.0%** and **3.2%** by year-end, respectively, influenced by tariff impacts [38] 4. **Economic Growth Projections** Real GDP growth is forecasted to slow to **1.0%** in 2025, with various components of the economy, including personal consumption and nonresidential investment, expected to moderate [57] 5. **Labor Market Participation** The participation rate for the foreign-born population is higher than that of the domestic-born, suggesting that immigration policies may have broader implications for labor force growth [16] This summary encapsulates the critical points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current state and future outlook of the US labor market and economic conditions.