Group 1 - Luxury retailer RH saw a nearly 5% increase in stock price, while Williams-Sonoma and Wayfair experienced gains of more than 2% and 4% respectively [1] - Trump announced a year-long pause on increased tariffs for upholstered furniture, kitchen cabinets, and vanities, maintaining the current 25% duty set in September [1][2] - Prior to this decision, tariffs on upholstered furniture were expected to rise by 30% starting in 2026, with Trump citing ongoing trade discussions as the reason for the delay [2] Group 2 - Furniture suppliers have faced scrutiny from Wall Street due to concerns over rising costs linked to Trump's trade policies, but stock performance varied significantly across the sector [2] - Wayfair's stock surged over 125% in 2025, benefiting from a shift towards value-focused retailers, while Williams-Sonoma's stock fell more than 3% [3] - RH's stock declined over 50% in the previous year, with CEO Gary Friedman acknowledging the negative impact of tariffs on the company's performance [3][4]

Labor Market Overview - The labor market is deteriorating for both employers and job seekers, with job seekers facing fewer openings and longer unemployment durations, as evidenced by the long-term unemployment rate reaching its highest since November 2021 in September [1] - Employers are struggling to find qualified candidates, particularly in industries like homebuilding, leading to a significant slowdown in job creation, with job losses occurring in two months of 2025, a first since the pandemic [2] Job Creation Trends - Economists predict that the U.S. economy will add an average of only 57,000 jobs per month in the first quarter of 2026, a stark decline from the pre-tariff average of 147,000 jobs per month [3] - Job creation has slowed to an average of 38,600 jobs per month since the announcement of tariffs, which is less than a quarter of the previous rate [3] Economic Implications - The slowdown in hiring and the rise in long-term unemployment indicate that both employers and workers are struggling to adapt to a new economic environment characterized by uncertain trade policies, higher borrowing costs, and persistent skills mismatches [4] - The uncertainty surrounding trade policies, particularly tariffs, is a significant factor in the slowdown, as businesses are hesitant to expand or hire without clarity on future costs [5] Technological Impact - The increasing adoption of AI in businesses may further impact the workforce, with estimates suggesting that AI could replace 6% to 7% of existing jobs, although new job opportunities may arise as a result [6] Immigration and Workforce Supply - The reduction in immigration due to policy changes has significantly decreased the number of available workers, complicating the hiring process for employers [7] - The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco projects that only 500,000 immigrants will arrive in the U.S. in 2025, a drop from 2.2 million in 2024, which will further limit workforce growth [8] Labor Market Dynamics - There is uncertainty regarding whether the job market's issues stem from a lack of jobs, a lack of workers, or both, complicating the economic outlook [10] - The Federal Reserve's perspective on labor demand versus supply could influence borrowing costs and interest rate decisions, potentially impacting hiring in the coming year [11]

Core Viewpoint - MillerKnoll is cautiously navigating the impact of U.S. trade policies while providing guidance for fiscal year 2026, reflecting a conservative approach in its financial outlook [1]. Financial Performance - In the fiscal second quarter ending November 29, MillerKnoll reported a revenue decline of 1.6% to $955.2 million [2]. - Earnings per share decreased by 28.6% to 35 cents, with North American contract sales down 3.1% and international contract sales down 6.3% year-on-year, despite a 4.8% increase in North American orders [3]. Market Dynamics - The company noted that momentum is building in both North America and internationally as organizations focus on employee collaboration and workspace refreshment, with international orders particularly strong from Europe, the U.K., China, and India [3]. Operational Costs and Expansion - MillerKnoll faced challenges from costs associated with new store openings, net tariff expenses, and foreign currency fluctuations. The company expanded its retail presence with new stores in Salt Lake City and three locations in California [4]. Future Guidance - For the third quarter of 2026, MillerKnoll anticipates sales to range between $923 million and $963 million, indicating a potential improvement from the second quarter's $955.2 million. Adjusted EPS is projected to fluctuate between 42 cents and 48 cents, while gross margin is expected to decrease to between 37.9% and 38.9% [5]. - The company's outlook for the third quarter incorporates considerations of tariffs, new store investments, and seasonal softness in contract businesses due to year-end and the timing of the Chinese New Year [6].

Trade Policy Shift - Mexico has approved new tariffs on over 1400 products, mainly from Asian countries, particularly China, aligning with U S trade policies [2] - This represents a realignment of Mexico's trade policy to protect its national industry [2][3] - The Ministry of Economy will gain new powers to adjust tariffs without legislative approval [6] Potential Economic Impact - The tariffs aim to protect Mexican national production, which officials claim has been hurt by Asian imports [5] - Some industries in Mexico, such as carmakers, toy manufacturers, and home appliance producers, rely heavily on inputs from Asia, potentially leading to backlash [8][10] - Mexican officials anticipate that most of the affected products can be easily replaced by national production, minimizing the impact [10] USMCA Revision Implications - The tariff approval comes months before Mexico, Canada, and the U S are scheduled to revise the USMCA trade deal [5] - Officials hope this move will ease negotiations during the USMCA revision [6] Asian Investment Considerations - The tariffs could impact Asian companies that are establishing North American manufacturing operations in Mexico [7] - Heavy lobbying from Asian companies delayed the tariff bill's passage, indicating significant concern [4][8]

Core Viewpoint - Anthony Scaramucci predicts a 70% chance that the Supreme Court will rule to eliminate President Trump's tariffs, arguing they are unauthorized taxes imposed without congressional approval [2][3]. Group 1: Tariff Authority and Legal Challenges - Scaramucci asserts that Trump's imposition of tariffs without congressional approval constitutes an unauthorized tax, emphasizing that taxation in the U.S. requires representation [2][3]. - He suggests that if the Supreme Court rules in favor of Congress, companies expecting to pay 10-15% in tariffs might not have to pay them, potentially leading to a significant liquidity push in the markets next year [3][4]. - Scaramucci notes that the Supreme Court may not order refunds and could allow the tariff revenues to be retained, indicating previous losses in lower courts for Trump [4]. Group 2: Economic Implications and Policy Divide - Scaramucci has criticized Trump's trade and tariff policies, linking them to rising inflation and a slowdown in business and consumer demand [5]. - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expresses confidence in maintaining tariff policies, citing sections of the 1962 Trade Act that grant the president significant authority over import duties [6]. - A recent analysis from Oxford Economics outlines four potential tariff paths for the upcoming year, each with significant implications for inflation, employment, and financial markets, highlighting the ongoing importance of trade policy as an economic force [7].

Regulatory Changes - China's Ministry of Commerce adjusted the "Management Directory of Exporting Precursor Chemicals to Specific Countries (Regions)" and the "Directory of Specific Countries (Regions)" [1] - The United States, Mexico, and Canada were added to the "Directory of Specific Countries (Regions)" [1] - Thirteen types of precursor chemicals specifically targeting the US, Mexico, and Canada were added [1] - Chemicals numbered 1, 2, 4, and 8-13 in Annex 1 are precursors to fentanyl-related substances [1]

Trade Policy Changes - China's Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs will suspend the implementation of several announcements related to export controls until November 10, 2026 [1] - The suspension includes measures announced on October 9 concerning export controls on rare earths, lithium batteries, and artificial graphite anode materials [2] - China will continue to suspend the 24% tariff on imports from the United States for one year, while maintaining the 10% tariff [2] - The adjusted tariff measures took effect on November 10, 2025, at 13:01 [2]

Core Viewpoint - Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) has lowered its full-year 2025 profit outlook due to weaker crush margins and delays in U.S. biofuel policy, resulting in a nearly 11% drop in its shares during pre-market trading [1]. Group 1: Financial Performance - ADM now anticipates adjusted earnings of $3.25 to $3.50 per share for 2025, a decrease from the previous forecast of around $4.00 and below analysts' estimate of $3.79 per share [4]. - The company reported an adjusted profit of 92 cents per share for the three months ending September 30, surpassing the average estimate of 85 cents [4]. Group 2: Market Challenges - The deferral of U.S. biofuel policy decisions, particularly regarding renewable fuel blending requirements, has led to reduced demand for soybean oil and other feedstocks, resulting in a 21% decline in operating profit to $379 million in the Ag Services and Oilseeds unit [2]. - Major agriculture processors, including ADM, are contending with volatile commodity cycles, soft crop prices, and uncertain energy policies [1]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite current challenges, the company anticipates that policy clarity and improving global trade flows will support growth in 2026, with expectations for biofuel policy clarity and trade policy evolution to provide demand signals for the industry [3].

Group 1: Market Environment - President Trump's aggressive tariffs may lead to higher inflation as corporations increase prices, potentially causing consumers to spend less, which could lower business revenue and profits [1] - The market views Trump's trade policies as a significant risk due to these potential economic impacts [1] Group 2: Company Resilience - Some companies can thrive in an inflationary environment, achieving a 12.3% compound annual growth rate necessary to double investments in six years, with strong buy-and-hold qualities for long-term returns [2] - Netflix and Vertex Pharmaceuticals are highlighted as examples of companies that could perform better than most amid tariff and inflation challenges [3] Group 3: Netflix Analysis - Netflix's revenue is primarily from digital subscriptions and ads, making it largely insulated from tariffs, and it possesses strong pricing power, having raised prices multiple times without losing subscribers [5][6] - The company's extensive content library, tailored to viewer preferences, allows it to increase prices without significant subscriber loss, indicating strong financial results in the foreseeable future [7] - Netflix has substantial growth opportunities, with an estimated market potential exceeding $650 billion, while its trailing-12-month revenue stands at $43.3 billion, indicating significant room for growth [8] Group 4: Market Performance - Both Netflix and Vertex benefit from strong pricing power, positioning them well to deliver market-beating returns through 2031 and beyond [9] - Despite a recent drop in Netflix's shares following disappointing third-quarter results, the decline was attributed to a tax-related dispute in Brazil, not indicative of long-term issues [10]

By Javi West Larrañaga (Reuters) -The boss of Spanish steelmaker Acerinox praised on Friday recently announced steel import quotas by the European Commission but said the company was working to get the measures adopted more quickly. "We are pushing and trying to accelerate the process as much as we can," Chief Executive Officer Bernardo Velazquez said on a call with analysts, suggesting the measures should come into place as early as April 2026, before the current ones expire at the end of June. "We can ...