Let's bring in our next guest. We're going to talk about trade, tariff agreements, everything that we've been hearing this morning. Roger Altman is the founder and senior chairman of Evercore ISI.And Roger, thanks for coming in this morning. >> Thanks for having me. >> We were just looking at some of the energy stocks with Dom um that are trading up pretty sharply on what Europe is potentially going to be buying in terms of of of energy deals from the United States.But it's not just that. It's also defense ...

Market Sentiment & Trade Agreements - The market views the trade deal with Europe positively, considering "deal is better than no deal" [1][2] - Agreements with the US, such as those with Japan and Europe, have led to market rallies in those countries [2] - Increased certainty regarding trade and tariffs is boosting equities, despite longer-term economic risks [3] - The stock market is reacting positively to growing clarity on Trump's tariff agenda [4] Volatility & Risk Assessment - The VIX (implied volatility index) is at a low of sub 15, the lowest since February, suggesting market complacency [5] - Despite low implied volatility, significant event risk exists, including trade talks with China, earnings reports, and central bank meetings [6] - Analysts are discreetly recommending hedging strategies in options and bond markets to protect against potential drawdowns [7] China Market Perspective - Continuation of trade talks is seen as a positive for China, avoiding escalation and tariff increases [8] - Analyst reports from China indicate optimism and a potential bull market in Chinese equities [9]

Is now sort of a sense of optimism in the air. I think the expectation is that we are likely to get another extension on the US-China fronts, which implies there's no final deal yet. So what are still the sticking points between the US and China right now.Yeah, well, I think there is a sort of open question as to conceptually what a final deal with the United States is on trade. But certainly the Chinese are further away from one than the Europeans from what they clinched over the last the last 24 hours. An ...

According to Bloomberg, the EU and U.S. have reached a trade deal to avoid a tariff war. The EU agreed to a 15% tariff on most exports, including cars, and pledged to buy $750 billion in U.S. energy, invest $600 billion in the U.S., open its markets, and purchase American military equipment. Key details remain undisclosed, and some terms are still in dispute. https://t.co/KGtMjsGX1Y ...

🇺🇸 TRUMP: says there's a 50-50 chance of making a deal with the EU. https://t.co/Bm0dckNyYV ...

Lot to lot to look for there. Uh let's take President Trump in the Oval taking questions or getting ready to go to Scotland actually. Dollar fallen so much.And are you concerned about that. Well, you know, uh I'm a person that likes a strong dollar, but a weak dollar makes you a hell of a lot more money. Hate to tell you.I don't know if you study it, but I study it. And if you look at the yen, I went to Canada and work, so I know this. You understand.Absolutely. Oh, you did go to bed. I went to work yesterd ...

Trade Agreements and Tariffs - The markets interpret recent trade announcements with Japan and Indonesia as a sign of reduced uncertainty, with tariffs potentially higher but not catastrophic [2] - The expectation is that the US-China trade deadline will be extended, continuing the detente [6] - The EU's meeting with China was described as tense, highlighting concerns about China's overcapacity threatening European industrialization [8][9] - The EU has imposed tariffs as high as 45% on Chinese EVs [13] Currency Impact on Trade - Currency devaluation can offset the inflationary impact of tariffs, as seen with the Chinese yuan against the euro [14] - A weaker dollar, contrary to expectations, has not led to significant inflation [16] Venezuela and Oil Markets - The US administration is reportedly allowing Chevron to resume drilling in Venezuela [18] - This decision aims to increase oil supply by a million barrels, providing leverage regarding Iran and preventing oil price increases [19] - The move is also seen as potentially benefiting the Venezuelan opposition in the future [20]

Trade deal on US tariffs within reach, says EU, as 1 August deadline nears https://t.co/7Z7ivv94Xh ...

The UK is still pressing for “full implementation” of its trade deal with the US, Keir Starmer said as he downplayed the prospect of a breakthrough on steel tariffs during Trump’s visit to Scotland https://t.co/ldcjIFx4Dr ...

Tariff Negotiations & Trade Agreements - The US administration aims for tariff-free exports to partner countries, focusing on reciprocal tariffs which have decreased from approximately 50% to 20% in recent agreements [2] - Agreements are facing obstacles in the "third bucket," involving transactions like Japan's $500 billion investment in the US and financing investments in Vietnam, potentially leading to higher tariffs if unresolved [2][3] - The US administration is using threats to increase negotiating leverage, which has been effective, but the EU and China are experiencing tensions during their summit, potentially impacting US-China negotiations [4][5] - The EU's concerns about trade with China are as strong as the US's, making agreements challenging due to the need for consensus among many countries [5][6] - The reciprocal tariffs have been reduced by about 50% in the last four frameworks [13] - Key countries to watch include the EU, Korea, and India, as they significantly impact the deficit, economy, and global economy [13] - A resolution is expected, but if one of the three key countries (EU, Korea, India) doesn't reach an agreement, reciprocal tariffs may be implemented, though likely not for long [14][15] Legal & Policy Considerations - Country-specific tariffs are being challenged in court, potentially impacting the president's trade policy, but the US is expected to find ways to exert its position on tariffs and trade [8][9][10] - Countries should assume the US president will have the legal leeway needed to move forward, as past challenges have been overcome through measures like invoking national security under Section 232 [10][11]