Core Viewpoint - Investors are disappointed with the new trade deal between the E.U. and the U.S., which has negatively impacted LVMH's stock performance and reflects broader concerns in the luxury sector [1][2]. Group 1: Trade Deal Impact - The E.U. and the U.S. agreed to a 15% tariff on European goods, which has been criticized by France as a "submission" [3]. - The tariff agreement avoids a trade war but increases costs for luxury goods, which are already facing challenges [3]. - The trade war is expected to affect LVMH's fashion and leather goods segment, as well as wines and spirits, with trade-related pressures in China further hurting demand [5]. Group 2: Financial Performance - LVMH reported a 4% decline in revenue for the first half of the year, with operating profit falling 15% to €9 billion, primarily due to weakness in Asia [4]. - Organic revenue in fashion and leather goods, which constitute nearly half of LVMH's sales, declined by 7% [4][5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Investors are looking for a potential trade deal with China, which could benefit LVMH, as China accounts for about a quarter of the global luxury market [6]. - There is disappointment that luxury goods were not excluded from the U.S. trade deal, but a strong economy and stock market may mitigate the impact of import taxes [6]. - LVMH possesses a strong portfolio of brands that should provide long-term stability, although short-term volatility is expected [7].

Gold steadied after the US and EU announced they had reached a tariff agreement, staving off some concerns about a potentially painful trade war https://t.co/WAbsXqOQr3 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Real Estate**: The 30-city property sales in China declined by -26% YoY in the first 19 days of July, a significant drop from -8% YoY in June, with tier 1 and tier 2 cities experiencing declines of -30% and -27% respectively, while tier 3 cities remained weak at -17% YoY [2][21] - **Steel Production**: Steel production showed a slight improvement, declining by -4% YoY in the first 10 days of July compared to -5% YoY in June [2][20] - **Port Activities**: Port cargo throughput growth increased to 12% YoY in early July, although container throughput growth decreased to 3% YoY [2][12] - **Auto Sales**: Auto retail sales growth softened to 7% YoY in the first 13 days of July from 15% YoY in June, while wholesale growth increased to 34% YoY from 14% YoY [2][17] Economic Indicators - **GDP Growth**: Q2 real GDP growth remained robust at 5.2% YoY, slightly down from 5.4% YoY in Q1, supported by improving retail sales and solid export growth [3] - **Deflation Pressure**: The GDP deflator showed a larger decline of -1.2% YoY in Q2 compared to -0.8% YoY in Q1, indicating ongoing deflationary pressures [3] - **Investment and Consumption**: FAI growth decelerated to 2.1% YoY, with industrial production growth slightly slowing to 6.2% YoY [3][29] Forecasts and Expectations - **2025 GDP Forecast**: The GDP forecast for 2025 has been upgraded to 4.7% from a previous projection of 4%, with expectations of economic deceleration in H2, particularly in Q4 [4] - **CPI and Currency Outlook**: Full-year CPI is expected to decline to -0.2%, with the CNY potentially strengthening in the near term but facing risks from trade uncertainties [4] Policy and Government Actions - **Urban Development**: The central urban work conference emphasized urban renewal and infrastructure investment, with a focus on upgrading old urban pipelines and tunnels [5][7] - **Sector Support Plans**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to unveil new action plans in 2025 to stabilize growth in ten key sectors, including steel, petrochemical, and automotive industries [7] Trade and International Relations - **Trade Deals**: A new trade deal with Indonesia was announced, with a tariff rate of 19% and commitments for significant purchases of US goods [8] - **Technology Exports**: The US government is expected to grant licenses for Nvidia to export H20 GPUs to China, indicating a potential easing of restrictions [8] Additional Insights - **Market Sentiment**: The upcoming July Politburo meeting is anticipated to maintain a supportive macro policy tone, but major additional stimulus measures are unlikely due to robust Q2 GDP growth [9] - **Investment Risks**: Key risks to the economic outlook include the progress of US-China trade talks and the ongoing property market downturn [4][9]

The past few years have brought a series of crises, from the covid-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine to an energy shock and a trade war. Somehow, the global economy powers on https://t.co/wsHp8gVvr6 ...

Core Insights - FedEx's Chief Digital and Information Officer, Sriram Krishnasamy, is leaving the company following an investigation into claims of inflated performance within his unit [1][4][5] - The investigation pertains to a personnel matter within the IT department, which Krishnasamy oversaw, and he will remain with the company as an executive adviser until October or potentially earlier [2][5] - FedEx's stock fell by 1.4% following the announcement of Krishnasamy's departure, and the company is currently facing financial challenges due to trade uncertainties [4][11] Company Leadership Changes - Sriram Krishnasamy has been with FedEx since 1997 and has held various leadership roles globally [2][9] - The data and technology organization will now report directly to FedEx CEO Raj Subramaniam as the company prepares for a transition [6] Financial Outlook - FedEx has warned of a financial hit in the current quarter due to the impact of President Trump's trade war, which has disrupted global shipping and trade [8][9] - The company has withheld its financial forecast for the current fiscal year due to ongoing trade uncertainties, with its stock down approximately 17% year-to-date [11]

Macroeconomic Concerns - Inflation increased in June, potentially hindering the Federal Reserve's (Fed) ability to lower interest rates [1][2][5] - Tariffs are identified as a contributing factor to rising inflation, creating a conflict with the Fed's monetary policy objectives [2][5] Federal Reserve (The Fed) and Interest Rate Policy - The Fed is unlikely to lower interest rates while inflation continues to rise [2][4] - The Fed might have lowered rates already if it weren't for the tariffs [2] - Pressure is mounting on Fed Chair Jay Powell to lower interest rates, particularly from the White House [4][5] Political and Economic Conflict - A collision course is developing between the President and the Fed Chair regarding monetary policy [3] - The President and members of his administration are publicly criticizing Fed Chair Jay Powell's performance [3][4] - Potential candidates, such as Kevin Hasset and Scott Bessant, are being considered for the Fed Chair position [4] Trade Policy Implications - The President's stance on tariffs is a key factor influencing inflation and the Fed's policy decisions [2][5] - The effectiveness of tariffs as a negotiating tool is questioned in light of their inflationary impact [1][5]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a "sell signal" triggered by cash levels falling to 3.9% [14][15][86] Core Insights - Investor sentiment is the most bullish since February 2025, with a significant surge in profit optimism and risk appetite over the past three months [2][17] - 59% of investors believe a recession is unlikely, a notable shift from 42% in April, with 65% expecting a soft landing [3][26][27] - The most crowded trade is "short US dollar," with a net 20% overweight on Euro, the highest since January 2005 [5][55][62] Summary by Sections Macro Insights - 42% of investors expect Q2 2025 EPS to beat consensus, while 19% anticipate disappointment [30][36] - AI is perceived to be increasing productivity by 42% of investors [32][37] - Expectations for a global recession have decreased, with only 9% expecting a hard landing [26][28] Policy Insights - The trade war is viewed as the biggest tail risk, with expected final tariff rates on the Rest of the World rising to 14% [4][49][48] - 81% of investors forecast one or two rate cuts by year-end, with only 11% expecting a rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting [38][44] Asset Allocation - FMS equity allocation improved to a net 2% overweight, while bond allocation remains net 4% underweight [120][121] - Investors are most overweight Eurozone equities, with a net 41% overweight, the highest in four years [63][65] - There has been a significant increase in allocation to tech stocks, with a net 14% overweight, the highest since January 2025 [68][70] Investor Sentiment - The FMS cash level has dropped to 3.9%, indicating a sell signal, with historical median losses following such signals averaging -2% [14][20][86] - Risk appetite has surged, with a net 31% of investors expecting weaker global economic growth, a significant recovery from previous months [23][92] - 68% of investors believe high-quality earnings will outperform low-quality earnings [101][103]

Market Overview - The Nasdaq reached a record closing high as the second-quarter earnings season begins, with President Trump announcing a 30% tariff on Mexico and the EU, prompting negotiations before the August 1 deadline [1][2] - The S&P 500 is expected to see 4.7% earnings growth on 4% higher revenues for Q2, indicating a slowdown compared to previous quarters [3] Earnings Reports - JPMorgan Chase reported Q2 earnings of $4.96 per share, exceeding estimates by 9.98%, with revenues of $44.91 billion also surpassing expectations [9] - Nvidia's stock rose approximately 4% after announcing plans to resume sales of restricted H20 GPUs to China, with government assurances of license approvals [11][12] Historical Context - The S&P 500 experienced a significant rally, advancing over 25% from April lows, a feat accomplished only five times since 1957, with historical data suggesting double-digit gains in the following year [7] - The first half of the year was marked by volatility due to trade tensions, but market performance improved as trade-talk progress became clearer [5][6]

Contributing analyst to the iREIT+Hoya Capital investment group. The Dividend Collectuh is not a registered investment professional nor financial advisor and these articles should not be taken as financial advice. This is for educational purposes only and I encourage everyone to do their own due diligence. I'm a Navy veteran who enjoys dividend investing in quality blue-chip stocks, BDC's, and REITs. I am a buy-and-hold investor who prefers quality over quantity and plans to supplement his retirement income ...

Core Viewpoint - The impending tariffs, scheduled to take effect on August 1, could significantly impact consumer prices and the economy, despite Wall Street's perception that they are mere posturing [2][3]. Group 1: Tariff Implications - Tariffs are essentially taxes imposed on imported goods, which can lead to increased prices for consumers as businesses are likely to pass on the additional costs [4][10]. - Affected products include a wide range of goods, from cars to groceries, with potential price increases of up to 15% or more [5][11]. - The broad nature of the tariffs will create ripple effects throughout the economy, influencing prices even for domestically produced goods [8][11]. Group 2: Economic Impact - Past trade disputes have shown that tariffs can lead to inflation, supply chain disruptions, and job instability in sectors reliant on global trade [6][12]. - While some domestic industries may benefit from tariffs, the overall effect on the average consumer is likely to be higher costs [13]. Group 3: Financial Strategies - Companies and consumers are advised to take proactive financial measures, such as making major purchases before price increases occur [15]. - Stocking up on non-perishable essentials and seeking domestic alternatives can help mitigate the impact of rising prices [16][17]. - Strengthening emergency funds and considering inflation-resistant investments, such as commodities and Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), are recommended strategies [21][23].