美国总统特朗普今年"钦点"的美联储理事米兰（Stephen Miran）警告，除非美联储明年继续降息，否则 美国经济将面临衰退的风险。这一表态与多位美联储官员近期的谨慎立场形成鲜明对比，凸显联储内部 在利率政策路径上的深度分化。 美东时间22日周一，米兰在接受采访时表示："如果我们不调整政策，我们将面临日益严重的经济衰退 风险。" 他强调，失业率已经上升到超出预期的水平，这些数据应该会促使美联储决策者向鸽派方向转 变。 米兰同时表示，他尚未决定在明年1月的下次美联储货币政策委员会FOMC会议上支持降息25个基点还 是50个基点，但认为可能还需要几次降息。他还说，"我认为短期内不会出现经济衰退"，不过上升的失 业率应促使美联储官员继续降息。 米兰的表态与近期其他的美联储官员截然不同。他讲话一天前，上周日公布的访谈显示，明年拥有 FOMC会议投票权的克利夫兰联储主席哈玛克（Beth Hammack）表示，暂停降息是她目前的基本预 期。纽约联储主席威廉姆斯、波士顿联储主席柯林斯和理事沃勒上周也都表达了更为谨慎的立场。 米兰主张继续降息以防经济恶化 米兰本周一在接受彭博电视采访时详细阐述了他对货币政策的看法。他指出： ...

Coming to the economy. Investors are watching for signals from policymakers heading into a key year for the Federal Reserve, with a new chair expected to be announced soon. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack among those, preferring to hold rates higher for longer.Well, our next guest is taking the other side, voting for a 50 basis point cut at the Fed's last meeting. Joining us now is Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Myron. Very good morning to you, Stephen.Thank you so much for joining us. Good morning. ...

The price of bitcoin could surge past $170,000 in 2026 if the Federal Reserve loses control of the economy and reverts to aggressive stimulus, according to CoinShares' latest outlook report. The digital asset manager outlined three macro scenarios for next year. These included bitcoin price targets ranging from a low of $70,000 in a stagflation environment to highs above $170,000 if recession forces the Fed into panic-mode easing, according to the CoinShares Digital Assets 2026 Outlook report. The base case ...

Uh let's get into a discussion with the team from Charles Schwab. We're going to welcome in Cooper Howard, director of fixed income research and strategy at Charles Schwab Center for uh financial research and Michelle Gibli, director of international equity research and strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research. Uh Cooper, I wanted to go to you uh first here because I wanted to talk bonds here a little bit.I think that's part of the reason we've seen some support in the equity market is that we'r ...

Market Outlook - Wells Fargo Investment Institute expects modest growth with moderate to moderating inflation, a good setup for risk assets in 2026 [3] - The Institute has a year-end 2026 target of 7500 for the S&P 500, considering it a doable number given the expected economic environment [7] - The Institute anticipates the rest of the world, including the US, will perform better next year relative to this year [13] Investment Strategy - The Institute took advantage of the pullback in early April and would like to see another one [4] - The Institute previously overweight infoch and communication services but went neutral on communication services and technology [4][5] - The Institute favors financials as its most favored sector, anticipating financing, M&A, deregulation, and a better economy [6] - The Institute likes industrials and utilities, viewing them as beneficiaries of the AI trade due to the need for data center construction and electrical grid upgrades [5][6] - The Institute is neutral on developed international and emerging markets, viewing emerging markets as a potentially cheaper way to play technology and AI [8][9] - The Institute prefers sticking with larger cap midcaps and US over international, but is looking for opportunities to increase international exposure [9][10]

My mother and father both worked for approx 35 years. But in two years after their retirement and after my sister's wedding, we exhausted the life savings. We are left with zero money.And I kept wondering how is this possible. Today I'm going to share that reason and also my 20 years of investment learnings in the theme seeds of change and the topic why and how learning to invest early can change the fortune of your life. I was fortunate to have born to a loving, caring and humble parents.My mother used to ...

The S&P 500 rose 0.4% in early trade, hovering just below the all-time high it set earlier this month. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 170 points, or 0.4%, while the Nasdaq composite also gained 0.4%, according to AP.Market sentiment was supported by strength in commodities, with gold and silver touching record highs and oil prices jumping after US authorities said the Coast Guard was pursuing another sanctioned oil tanker in the Caribbean.Before the opening bell, futures for the S&P 500 were up 0.4 ...

Key Takeaways November CPI rose 2.7% year over year, below expectations, easing pressure on Federal Reserve policy meeting.AS expects 21.5% earnings growth next year, with current-year earnings estimates up 10.7% in the past 60 days.ROKU's current-year earnings growth tops 100%, and its earnings estimates jumped 83.3% over the past 60 days.The Federal Reserve cut interest rates in December but signaled only one rate cut in 2026, given that inflation remains high. However, a soft inflation reading for Novemb ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve faces risks of economic recession unless interest rates are lowered further next year, according to Stephen Miran, a member of the Federal Reserve Board [2] - Miran has noted that the necessity for a significant rate cut of 50 basis points has diminished, although he still advocates for a more accommodative policy stance due to rising unemployment [2] - Since September, the Federal Reserve has implemented three rate cuts totaling 75 basis points, and the need for another large cut may be less urgent as the Fed approaches a phase of more precise management of monetary policy [2] Group 2 - This month, the Federal Reserve reduced interest rates by 25 basis points, but there is significant disagreement among officials regarding future policy directions, with most expecting only one more rate cut next year [3] - Concerns about inflation persist, as the current inflation rate remains nearly 1 percentage point above the 2% target, while rising unemployment raises fears of a significantly weakened job market [3]

Core Insights - The broader equity markets experienced a mini recovery, ending a four-day losing streak, driven by cooling inflation and strong performances from key blue-chip stocks [1][2] - The November consumer price index report indicated an annual inflation increase of 2.7%, lower than the expected 3.1%, while core consumer price inflation was at 2.6%, compared to a forecast of 3% [1] Investment Opportunities - Investors are encouraged to focus on "cash cow" stocks with high return on equity (ROE) to maximize returns, as high ROE indicates effective reinvestment of cash [2][3] - TE Connectivity plc (TEL), ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO), Pilgrim's Pride Corporation (PPC), Assurant, Inc. (AIZ), and Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc. (HST) are highlighted as stocks with high ROE and favorable efficiency scores [2][7] Financial Metrics - ROE is defined as Net Income divided by Shareholders' Equity, serving as a key indicator of a company's profitability and financial health [3] - A higher ROE signifies better management efficiency in generating profits without new equity capital [4] Screening Parameters - Stocks were screened based on criteria including cash flow greater than $1 billion, ROE greater than the industry average, price/cash flow ratio lower than the industry average, return on assets (ROA) greater than the industry average, and a 5-year EPS historical growth greater than the industry average [5][6][7] - Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy) or 2 (Buy) was also considered, indicating stocks likely to outperform the market [7] Company Profiles - **TE Connectivity**: A global technology company focused on connectivity and sensor solutions, with a long-term earnings growth expectation of 12.3% and a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 6.5% [8][9] - **ZTO Express**: A leading express delivery service in China, with a Zacks Rank of 1 and a long-term earnings growth expectation of 3.1% [10][11] - **Pilgrim's Pride**: Engaged in the production and distribution of chicken products, with a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 10.4% and a Zacks Rank of 2 [11][12] - **Assurant**: A provider of risk management solutions, with a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 22.7% and a Zacks Rank of 2 [12][13] - **Host Hotels**: A leading lodging REIT with a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 11% and a Zacks Rank of 2 [14][15]