European Central Bank Governing Council member Boris Vujcic repeated his view that current policy is “in a good place,” adding that “we feel that we have done our job” after lowering inflation to the ECB’s target without provoking a recession https://t.co/Nc8ZK93t1C ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC indicates a significant economic divergence in the U.S. by 2025, with traditional industries like manufacturing and real estate facing pressures from tariffs and immigration policies, while the technology sector, driven by AI, experiences robust capital expenditure growth [1][2]. Economic Challenges - The U.S. economy will face two main challenges: supply-side pressures from tariff increases and a slowdown in population growth, which will impact labor supply and demand in housing and consumption sectors [2][3]. - The impact of tariffs on the economy is expected to continue into 2026, as companies that previously imported goods to avoid tariffs will see this buffer effect diminish, leading to increased supply cost pressures [2][3]. AI Investment Cycle - The contribution of AI to economic growth is becoming more apparent, primarily through substantial capital expenditures. However, as investment scales up, the marginal efficiency of capital is likely to decline, resulting in a slowdown of investment growth and a reduced impact on GDP growth in 2026 compared to 2025 [3][4]. - Other demand sectors are also expected to cool down, with the real estate market undergoing active destocking and construction investment declining after policy subsidies taper off [3]. Inflation Outlook - Inflation is anticipated to exhibit stickiness, with core goods still having room for price increases due to tariff impacts. Rent inflation is expected to continue its current slowdown, while non-rent service prices remain resilient due to structural demand and labor costs [3][4]. - Consumer inflation expectations may rise, complicating the Federal Reserve's ability to achieve its targets [3]. Policy Perspective - Fiscal and monetary policies are expected to marginally loosen, but the overall stimulative effect may be limited. The fiscal deficit expansion from Trump's "Great American Plan" will be partially offset by tariff revenues [4]. - The Federal Reserve may continue to lower interest rates due to a slowing job market, but will be cautious about significant easing due to persistent inflation concerns. A cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points is projected for 2026, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 3%-3.25% [4]. Economic Growth Forecast - The forecast for U.S. real GDP growth in 2026 is 1.7%, with the first half of the year facing downward pressure from tariffs and immigration policies, while the second half may see improvement due to fiscal and monetary support [4]. - Upside risks include a potential easing of trade and geopolitical tensions, while downside risks stem from a weakening job market, increased volatility in AI profitability, and inflation pressures exceeding expectations [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has appropriately cut interest rates to support the job market while being cautious about above-target inflation [1][3]. Group 1: Interest Rate Cuts - The Federal Reserve lowered its interest rate target by a quarter percentage point to between 3.75% and 4% in late October, following a similar cut in September [3]. - The cuts are seen as necessary to support a cooling job market despite concerns about high inflation [3]. Group 2: Financial Conditions - Current monetary policy is described as being between modestly restrictive and neutral, approaching a neutral stance regarding financial conditions [2]. - Financial conditions are viewed as supportive of economic activity and the labor market, based on a broad assessment of markets and credit availability [2]. Group 3: Inflation and Tariffs - U.S. trade tariffs have contributed to inflation, but their impact has been mitigated as companies have refrained from passing costs onto consumers [4]. - It is anticipated that the impact of tariffs will begin to diminish in the second half of next year, allowing inflation to trend back towards the 2% target [4].

Economic Concerns - The Federal Reserve expressed concerns about the labor market during the Jackson Hole meeting, indicating that recent labor market data supports these worries [1] - There are conflicting signals from the Fed, with some officials more worried about inflation than job losses, creating tension in the market [7] Market Performance - Bitcoin has underperformed for at least three weeks, reflecting a risk-on, risk-off sentiment in the market [2] - The S&P 500 was noted to be 13% above its 200-day moving average, suggesting that the market was overextended [8] - Companies exposed to consumer lending and mortgage servicing are under pressure, indicating potential consumer concerns [6] Stock Analysis - Amazon and Apple have shown negative price action despite positive earnings reports, suggesting a potential reversal in market sentiment [3] - Oracle's stock retracing entirely is seen as significant, indicating broader market implications [3] Investor Behavior - There is a historical tendency for investors to buy the dip, but there are concerns that this trend may not hold in the current market environment [10][13] - The VIX is expected to rise, indicating potential further market volatility and a possible wave of downside [12][14]

Market Concerns & Potential Correction - The Fed's concern about the labor market is validated by recent numbers, but high ISM services data suggests persistent inflation, putting the Fed in a difficult position [1] - Bitcoin's underperformance and VIX trends indicate a risk-off sentiment [2] - Stock price action of companies like Oracle, Amazon, and Apple suggests potential for further market decline [2][3] - The market retracement is considered a normal pullback after a significant run, but further selling is anticipated [4] - White-collar job losses are a concern, potentially impacting consumer spending and companies exposed to consumer lending [5][6] Economic Indicators & Fed Policy - Conflicting signals from the Fed regarding inflation vs job losses create tension in the market [7] - The S&P 500 was 13% above its 200-day moving average, and the Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF was trading around 30 times forward earnings, indicating overextended valuations [8] - Concerns about a slowing economy raise questions about justifying high valuations [9] - Investors are taking profits and moving into safety trades like treasuries [10] Investor Sentiment & Future Outlook - There's a prevailing "buy the dip" mentality among investors, but the sustainability of this strategy is questioned [10][11][13] - Expectation that the VIX is headed to 25, suggesting another wave to the downside [12] - The current dip is not significant enough, a larger dip is expected before considering it a buying opportunity [13] - Expectation that the VIX could go much higher, potentially exceeding levels seen during Liberation Day or last year with Japan [14]

ROUGEMONT, Quebec, Nov. 06, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Lassonde Industries Inc. (TSX: LAS.A) (“Lassonde” or the “Corporation”) today announced its financial results for the third quarter of 2025. Financial Highlights: Third quarters endedSept. 27, 2025Sept. 28, 2024∆(in millions of dollars, unless otherwise indicated)$$$Sales<td style="border-top: solid black 1pt ; border-right: solid black 1pt ; border-bottom: solid black 1pt ; border-left: solid black 1 ...

Core Viewpoint - Cleveland Federal Reserve President Beth Hammack believes that the U.S. central bank does not need to raise interest rates currently to address inflation pressures, although she acknowledges that her perspective may change in the future [1][2]. Interest Rate Policy - Hammack stated that raising rates is "not my base case right now," emphasizing the need for a slightly tight monetary policy to manage inflation while considering the softness in the job market [2][5]. - She expressed a preference to be on the restrictive side of neutral due to ongoing inflation pressures and signs of labor market softening [3][4]. Conditions for Changing Views - Hammack outlined potential factors that could alter her stance on interest rates, including a healthier labor market and persistent high inflation levels [4][6]. - She noted that if payroll numbers indicate a stronger labor market rather than just changes in immigration flows, her viewpoint might shift [4]. Current Economic Context - The Federal Reserve is concerned about elevated inflation but has recently eased short-term borrowing costs to support a weakening job market [5][6]. - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has complicated the Fed's ability to access key economic data, impacting their decision-making process [6]. Inflation and Labor Market Dynamics - Hammack highlighted that the Fed's dual mandate of stable inflation and a strong job market presents challenges, as these goals can be somewhat contradictory [6][7]. - She acknowledged difficulties in hiring but does not currently foresee a significant downturn in the labor market [7].

Walmart and other grocery giants are launching holiday meal deals as high food prices persist, squeezing consumers. It's a move that is catching the attention of the Trump administration.  President Donald Trump on Wednesday praised the nation's largest private employer, Walmart, for its discounted Thanksgiving meal. "Walmart just announced that the cost of their standard Thanksgiving meal... is 25% lower than one year ago. Isn't that great? That's a big deal," Trump said during a speech at the America Busi ...

Core Insights - Diageo, the world's largest spirits maker, has reduced its sales and profit outlook following a disappointing quarterly performance, with shares hitting a decade low [1][2] Financial Performance - Net sales for Diageo were reported at $4.9 billion, reflecting a 2% year-over-year decline, while organic sales remained flat, which was better than analysts' expectations [2] - Volumes increased nearly 3%, but this was insufficient to improve overall results due to adverse impacts from pricing and product mix [2] Regional Performance - Latin America showed strong demand, particularly in Brazil, while sales in China and the US faced significant declines, with China experiencing a drop of over 7% [3][4] - In the US, organic sales fell nearly 3%, as consumers shifted from premium brands like Don Julio and Casamigos to more affordable options [3][4] Market Trends - The premium spirits industry is experiencing challenges post-pandemic, with inflation, moderation trends, and tariffs affecting global trade [4] - A notable shift in consumer behavior is observed, with a trend towards lower-quality products as consumers tighten their spending [4] Leadership and Future Guidance - Diageo's leadership is currently unstable, with the CEO leaving in July and no replacement announced, leading to a message of waiting for further guidance after the holiday season [5] Demographic Insights - There are significant demographic shifts affecting consumption patterns, particularly among Gen Z consumers who are drinking less due to health and wellness trends [6] - Concerns about the economy are prevalent among Hispanic and non-Hispanic consumers, impacting various sectors, including beer [7][8]

The Cleveland Fed president worries more about inflation than a cooling labor market. ...