Tariffs - President Trump announced new tariffs, including a 100% tariff on branded or patented pharmaceuticals and a 25% tariff on imported heavy trucks, both effective October 1st [2][3] - A 50% tariff will be imposed on kitchen cabinets and bathroom vanities, and a 30% tariff on upholstered furniture, also starting October 1st [3] - Section 232 investigations into imports of robotics, industrial machinery, and medical devices were announced, which may lead to additional tariffs [4] Impact on Agriculture - The trade war has negatively affected American farmers, particularly with a decline in Chinese purchases of American soybeans [5] - A mechanism is being developed to transfer some tariff revenues to American farmers, though details are still to be determined [5][6] Government Shutdown - A government shutdown appears increasingly likely, with no serious negotiations between parties, potentially leading to the first full shutdown since 2013 [7][10] - If a shutdown occurs, it will delay jobs data, company certifications, and federal payments, with the travel industry projected to lose $1 billion weekly [9][10] - The potential for massive federal layoffs could impact hundreds of thousands of workers, although specific numbers are unclear [9][10] Market Reactions - The market has shown resilience despite the looming shutdown and tariff announcements, with some sectors, particularly drug stocks, performing well [11][15] - Investors are becoming accustomed to the tariff situation, with some companies using tariffs as a pricing strategy, leading to increased prices for consumers [17][19] - The impact of tariffs on consumer spending is expected to become more pronounced in upcoming quarters, particularly affecting lower-end consumers [21][22]

Group 1: Intel's Performance - Intel's stock surged by 8.87% following reports of discussions with TSMC regarding investment or manufacturing collaboration [1][2] - Prior to the recent interest from the U.S. government, Intel had already been in contact with Apple and TSMC [2] - The previous trading day saw Intel's stock increase by 6.41% [2] Group 2: Tesla's Market Challenges - Tesla's stock fell by 4.38%, marking its largest single-day decline in two months [2] - In August, Tesla's new car registrations in the EU dropped by nearly 37%, while BYD's registrations increased by 201% [2] - Tesla's market share in the EU has been surpassed by BYD for the second consecutive month [2] Group 3: Broader Market Trends - Major U.S. stock indices experienced declines, with the Dow Jones down 0.38%, Nasdaq down 0.5%, and S&P 500 down 0.5% [1] - Other large tech stocks showed mixed results, with Apple up 1.81% and Nvidia up 0.41%, while Google, Microsoft, and Amazon saw declines [2] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by 0.42%, indicating mixed performance among Chinese concept stocks [2]

Core Viewpoint - The current government shutdown may elicit a stronger reaction from investors compared to past shutdowns due to significant differences in the economic and political landscape [1] Group 1 - Historically, investors have shown indifference to government shutdown news, often viewing it as a temporary issue [1] - The current situation presents unique factors that could influence investor sentiment more profoundly than in previous instances [1]

Government Shutdown Overview - Major stock market indexes are trading near all-time highs but may decline due to a potential government shutdown as early as next week [1] - The deadline for a potential government shutdown is October 1, contingent on Congress reaching an agreement on a funding bill or temporary extension [2] Political Dynamics - Senator Majority Leader Chuck Schumer attributes any government shutdown to President Trump, labeling the situation as the "Donald Trump shutdown" [3] - House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries indicates that Democrats would support a bipartisan spending plan that protects healthcare [3] - Trump is blaming the Democratic Party and may use the impending shutdown as political leverage [3] Economic Implications - The White House warns that a government shutdown could lead to mass layoffs, furloughs, and termination of federal employees [4] - Prediction markets indicate a 65% chance of a government shutdown occurring on October 1, with a 75% likelihood of a shutdown happening this year [5] - Forecasts suggest an average shutdown duration of 5.2 days [5] Historical Context - The last major government shutdown lasted 35 days from December 22, 2018, to January 25, 2019, primarily due to funding disagreements for a border wall [6] - During the last shutdown, approximately 800,000 workers went unpaid, and the GDP experienced a decline of about $3 billion [8] Market Reactions - The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust closed at $240.70 before the last shutdown and opened at $239.04 on December 24, 2018, reflecting a 2.6% drop [9] - Despite initial volatility, the ETF eventually rose, closing at $265.78 on January 25, 2019, marking a 10.4% increase from the pre-shutdown closing price [9] - The year 2019 saw the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust increase by 31.2%, indicating that the previous shutdown had a minor impact on the market in the long term [10]

Core Points - The White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB) is directing federal agencies to prepare large-scale layoff plans in anticipation of a potential government shutdown, specifically targeting employees involved in "non-mandatory programs" [1][2] - The OMB memo indicates that if the government shuts down, there will be a permanent reduction in federal employees, contrasting with past practices where most employees faced temporary furloughs [1][2] - The memo outlines that projects without statutory funding will be the primary targets of the government shutdown's impact, and agencies are required to submit proposed layoff plans [2] Summary by Sections OMB Directives - OMB has instructed agencies to identify discretionary projects and activities that will lose funding after October 1, and to draft layoff plans for employees involved in these areas [1][2] - The memo emphasizes that even employees who could be exempt from furloughs during funding lapses must receive layoff notifications [2] Current Legislative Context - The memo was released amid a funding impasse between Republicans and Democrats in Congress, with the House passing a temporary funding bill to keep federal operations running until November 21, but Senate Democrats refusing to advance it [2] - OMB noted that if Congress passes a "clean" temporary funding bill by September 30, the additional measures outlined in the memo would not need to be implemented [2] Political Reactions - Some Democratic leaders, including Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, have expressed concerns that the memo serves as a tactic to intimidate, suggesting that the administration's actions could undermine essential government services [3][4] - House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries views the threat of layoffs as a serious issue, particularly for federal employees in Virginia, urging voters to remember this during the upcoming elections [4]

Group 1 - US stock market indices reached record highs for three consecutive days, with the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 all showing gains following a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve [2] - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, warned that the UK and US are heading towards a "very, very dark period," citing financial and debt issues in the UK and political polarization in the US [2] - Huiyuan Juice's restructuring has stalled due to conflicts between new and old shareholders, leading to product delisting and potential impacts on creditors and operations [2] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley predicts a continued decline in the US dollar and expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates by nearly 100 basis points, suggesting a 3 trillion yuan investment in purchasing housing in first- and second-tier cities [3] - TSMC's ADR surged significantly, with other semiconductor stocks also rising as TSMC plans to increase prices for its 3nm and 2nm process nodes, prompting a price hike among memory chip manufacturers [3] - Argentina's assets surged following a US commitment to provide financial support to President Milei, with bonds experiencing their largest historical gains and the stock market rising by 8% [3] Group 3 - NVIDIA announced a partnership with OpenAI, planning to invest up to $100 billion to develop AI data centers, marking its largest investment commitment to date [4] - Multiple A-share companies reported positive third-quarter performance, with companies like Changchuan Technology and Brother Technology seeing growth due to increased production capacity and strong orders [5] - The Swedish central bank unexpectedly cut rates by 25 basis points to 1.75% to support economic recovery, despite high inflation levels [5]

Group 1 - The U.S. Congress is facing a government shutdown threat as the Senate did not vote on a temporary budget passed by the House, with the fiscal year ending on September 30 [1][4] - The House, controlled by Republicans, passed a short-term funding bill to maintain current funding levels until November 21, including an additional $8.8 million for security for government officials [4] - Senate Democrats are resistant to the House's funding bill, citing the lack of provisions for critical healthcare needs and seeking to include restrictions on the Trump administration's fiscal powers [4][5] Group 2 - Both parties are reluctant to take responsibility for a government shutdown, with Republicans aiming to blame Democrats while Democrats accuse Republicans of excluding them from the legislative process [5] - Analysts suggest that a "tweaked" short-term funding bill is likely to pass at the last moment to avoid a complete government shutdown, but if both parties maintain their positions, market volatility may increase [5][6] Group 3 - Historical government shutdowns have caused significant economic losses, with the 2018-2019 shutdown resulting in an estimated $11 billion loss, including $3 billion considered permanent [7] - A potential shutdown could lower GDP growth, with estimates suggesting a weekly shutdown could reduce growth by approximately 0.13 percentage points [8]

美国政坛的"黑天鹅"正在临近。 随着美国共和党提出的临时拨款法案在美国参议院未获通过，美国政府"关门"的可能性大幅攀升。美东 时间9月19日，美国总统特朗普警告称，美国政府很可能会在10月进入"关门"状态，因两党谈判陷入僵 局。 但在共和党控制的参议院，投票结果为44票赞成、48票反对，未达到通过所需的60票门槛。值得注意的 是，共和党参议员兰德·保罗和丽莎·穆尔科斯基投了反对票，而民主党参议员约翰·费特曼则投下赞成 票。当天有多名共和党议员缺席。 现有的法案仅支持联邦政府运转到本月底。这意味着，在不到两周时间内，国会必须至少通过一项保证 短期支出的议案，否则部分政府机构就会在10月1日这个新财年的首日停摆。 周五美股盘后，特朗普在白宫椭圆形办公室表示："我们会继续与民主党谈判，但我认为美国很可能会 在一段时间内进入'关门'状态。" 在特朗普首个任期内，曾因边境墙资金问题引发长达一个月的政府停摆，创下美国历史最长纪录。 一旦政府停摆，数十万联邦雇员将被迫休假，许多政府业务受限。但关键服务仍会继续运行，美国人仍 会收到社保金和邮件。 当前这场年度资金争论仅涉及7万亿美元联邦政府预算中的约四分之一，该预算还包括社 ...

每经编辑｜段炼 美国国会参议院19日否决众议院通过的一项临时拨款法案，推高部分联邦政府机构因资金耗尽而"停摆"的风险。 多名共和党参议员"反水"、缺席 特朗普：政府很可能会"关门" 此前，美国众议院通过了为期七周的临时拨款法案，为政府提供资金直至11月21日，避免即将到来的政府停摆。 但在共和党控制的参议院，投票结果却为44票赞成、48票反对，未达到通过法案所需的60票门槛。来自肯塔基州的兰德·保罗和来自阿拉斯加州的丽莎·穆 尔科斯基是唯二投反对票的共和党议员，而民主党参议员约翰·费特曼投了赞成票。数名共和党议员缺席。共和党主导的众议院当天早些时候以微弱优势 通过了该法案，如今党内领导人必须重新制定方案。 民主党人批评共和党提出的临时拨款法案忽视医保优先事项，共和党人则辩称该法案可为进一步谈判争取时间。美国联邦政府资金将在9月30日午夜耗 尽，若两党届时不能协商一致，部分政府机构将面临"停摆"。 美国联邦政府运转资金本应来自年度预算拨款。国会两党通常应在10月1日新财年开始前通过新的年度拨款法案。但由于近年来两党争斗激烈，往往无法 及时达成一致，国会便试图通过临时拨款法案以暂时维持联邦政府运转。 特朗普在白宫 ...

The S&P 500 has largely done better, not worse, in shutdowns. ...