Markets are off to a strong start in 2025 — but investors could face their first real test on Friday with the December jobs report and, potentially, a Supreme Court decision on the legality of most of President Trump's tariffs. ...

Once we get through that, traders will start to look at the possibility of what the Federal Reserve may or may not do, and if the jobs report is poor, that might actually be good news. Keep that in mind. Short-term pullbacks, I think, have plenty of support near the 50-day EMA and the 25,000 level.Dow Jones 30 Technical AnalysisThe Dow Jones 30 is a little soft as well, although it is worth noting that it was the performer of the three major indices over the last couple of days. So, this pullback, I think, ...

US stocks edged lower on Tuesday as investors assessed the long-awaited November employment report. The S&P 500 slipped 0.1%, the Nasdaq Composite declined roughly 0.2%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average traded near unchanged. ...

Core Insights - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will not release the October employment report and will incorporate the non-farm employment data into the November report [1] - The household data for October, which is essential for calculating the unemployment rate and other key statistics, could not be collected retroactively [1] - The November employment report is scheduled to be released on December 16 [1]

Core Insights - The U.S. trade deficit for September decreased to $59.6 billion, better than the estimated $60.8 billion and significantly down from $78.3 billion in July [1][2] - This trade data is crucial for analysts as it completes the necessary information for the upcoming third quarter GDP report [2] Trade Data - Imports from Canada in September were at their lowest level since May 2021, indicating strained trade relations [3] - The Department of Labor will not publish missing data from the shutdown period but will make it available online [4] Upcoming Economic Indicators - The September jobs report is expected to be released soon, along with jobless claims from the previous week [3][5] - The third quarter GDP report will be released next week, with a second version expected due to surpassing initial estimates [5][6] - Future reports include November income and spending data scheduled for December 19th, while the status of October's jobs, CPI, and PBI remains uncertain [6]

Core Insights - Gold futures opened at $4,074.90 per ounce, reflecting a 0.4% increase from the previous day's close of $4,060, although prices declined in early trading [1] - The price of gold is significantly influenced by interest rate expectations, with a slight increase in the probability of a quarter-point rate reduction in December to 43.6% from 39.1% [1][2] - The latest employment report showed mixed results, with 119,000 jobs added in September but an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.4%, the highest since October 2021 [2] Gold Price Trends - The one-year gain for gold as of November 14 was 63.4%, indicating strong performance over the past year [3] - Gold prices have shown a decline of 2.9% over the past week and 6% over the past month, while the year-over-year increase stands at 53.2% [6] Investment Strategies - Experts recommend varying gold allocations based on investment goals, with suggestions ranging from 0% to 20% [4][5] - Robert R. Johnson advises against gold investing, citing the trade-off between reduced volatility and lost long-term returns, particularly for younger investors [5] - Brett Elliott suggests a 2% to 5% allocation for income-focused investors, while growth-oriented investors may consider 10% to 15% [7] - Blake McLaughlin supports a 5% to 8% allocation based on historical data, emphasizing gold's resilience during economic uncertainty [9] - Thomas Winmill recommends a long-term allocation of 5% to 15%, particularly through gold mining companies [10] - Vince Stanzione advocates for a 20% allocation in physical gold or gold ETFs as a wealth protection strategy [12]

Group 1 - The September jobs report is expected to be released soon, but the October employment report will be incomplete due to the household survey not being finished [1] - The unemployment rate for October will remain unknown as a result of the incomplete data [1] Group 2 - Essential employees were brought back early to facilitate the processing of checks for furloughed employees, leading to positive morale among returning staff [2] - Payments for furloughed employees are anticipated to be issued early next week, reflecting an aggressive effort to expedite the disbursement process [2]

Core Viewpoint - The White House National Economic Council Director Hassett stated that the employment report will be obtained, but there will be no unemployment rate data available [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Employment Report - The employment report is expected to provide insights into job creation and labor market conditions [1] Unemployment Rate - There will be no data on the unemployment rate included in the upcoming report, which may limit the understanding of overall employment health [1]

Core Viewpoint - The White House has indicated that the October jobs and inflation report is unlikely to be released, which may impact market expectations and economic forecasts [1] Group 1: Economic Impact - The delay in the release of the jobs and inflation report could lead to uncertainty in economic indicators, affecting both consumer confidence and investment decisions [1] - Analysts may need to adjust their forecasts and models due to the absence of this critical data, which typically informs monetary policy and market trends [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Financial markets may experience volatility as investors react to the news of the report's delay, potentially leading to shifts in stock prices and trading volumes [1] - The lack of updated economic data could hinder the Federal Reserve's ability to make informed decisions regarding interest rates and inflation control measures [1]

Core Points - The White House has indicated that key government reports on inflation and the labor market for October may never be released due to the prolonged government shutdown [1][2][3] - The shutdown has severely hindered access to critical economic data, impacting economists, investors, and policymakers [2][4] - The absence of official data has led to increased reliance on private sector reports, which suggest a weakening job market and rising layoffs [4][5] Group 1: Impact of Government Shutdown - The government shutdown has resulted in a significant backlog of important economic reports, with the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) unable to process data [3][4] - The last available unemployment rate was 4.3% in August, with only 22,000 new jobs added, indicating a sharp slowdown in employment growth [5] - The BLS is expected to quickly release the September employment report once the government reopens, but the October data collection has been severely compromised [5][6] Group 2: Challenges in Data Collection - The inability to collect data in October poses challenges for accurately assessing employment conditions, particularly for household surveys that are crucial for calculating the unemployment rate [5][6] - Former BLS officials have expressed skepticism about the feasibility of completing the October inflation report due to the lack of data collection [6][7] - The prolonged shutdown has created unprecedented disruptions for the BLS, which was already facing budget constraints and political pressures [7]