Core Insights - President Trump's potential removal of tariffs could significantly boost global economic growth and reduce inflation for U.S. consumers [1][4][7] Economic Impact - A reversal of Trump's tariffs could lead to global economic growth rates of 3% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027, compared to 2.7% and 2.9% without changes, representing a 0.5 percentage point increase per year [2][7] - The analysis indicates that eliminating tariffs could lower the Consumer Price Index by 0.4 percentage points annually through 2029, benefiting household budgets for U.S. consumers [5][7] Future Projections - While immediate tariff removal seems unlikely, a gradual decrease in import tax levels is considered plausible, as historical trends show U.S. tariff rates tend to decline over time [6][7] - The concept of "Liberation Day" suggests that if tariffs are negotiated away, it could create a positive economic environment ahead of elections, potentially leading to a series of bilateral trade deals [3][4]

It's no secret that Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack has staked out a spot as perhaps the most hawkish member of the U.S. Federal Reserve since her appointment in 2024 after a career at Goldman Sachs. Next year, however, she will be in a more prominent position to advance those views. The Fed's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) sets interest rate policy. Among its twelve voting members are four of the Fed's eleven district presidents who serve rotating one-year terms. In 2026, the head of the Clev ...

Group 1 - Dollar General Corporation (NYSE:DG) is perceived as a strong player in the discount retail sector, benefiting from a cash-strapped consumer base and countercyclical business model [1][2] - The company has successfully reduced its direct imports from China to less than 70% and indirect imports to less than 40%, although it still faces challenges from tariffs [1] - Dollar General's stock has increased over 50% year to date, indicating strong performance despite previous execution issues and rising competition [2] Group 2 - The company is making progress in addressing operational challenges, including store standards, supply-chain execution, and labor efficiency [2] - With inflation stabilizing, there are signs of increased customer activity, as basket sizes and units are beginning to rise again [2] - The potential for Dollar General to benefit from trade-down business during economic downturns positions it favorably in the current market environment [2]

As retirement approaches, many wonder how much savings they’ll need — especially if they plan to retire at 65 instead of the full retirement age of 67. A common rule of thumb is $1 million, but there’s no one-size-fits-all answer. With lifespans often stretching 30 years past retirement, your strategy must be personalized and sustainable. So whether you’re counting down the days or still have a few years to go, this guide will help you navigate the path to financial security. Understanding Retirement To ...

Dec 21 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack said ​she sees no need to change ‌interest rates for months after the central bank cut ‌rates at its last three meetings, the Wall Street Journal reported on Sunday. Hammack opposed recent rate cuts as she is ⁠more worried about ‌elevated inflation than the potential labor-market fragility that prompted officials to ‍lower rates by a cumulative 75 basis points over the past several months,the report added. Hammack ​told the Jour ...

Core Viewpoint - The Cleveland Fed president expresses skepticism about the recent cooler inflation reading for November, suggesting it should be taken "with a grain of salt" [1] Group 1 - The Cleveland Fed president will have a vote on interest rates in 2026, indicating her future influence on monetary policy decisions [1]

Group 1 - The outlook for 2026 is generally positive, driven by continued earnings growth, looser financial conditions, and midterm elections [1] - Primary risks identified include rising unemployment and the general overvaluation of stocks [1] Group 2 - The individual investor's journey highlights a shift from broad market indices to focusing on undervalued small companies, emphasizing a disciplined and analytical approach [1] - The integration of both technical and fundamental analysis is noted as a key development in the investor's strategy [1]

Inflation and Economic Indicators - The CPI figures for November showed a rise of 2.7%, lower than the expected 3.1% increase, indicating a positive surprise in inflation data [1] - Shelter prices increased by 0.2% from September to November, slower than the 0.3% average increase in 2025 [2] Darden Restaurants, Inc. (NYSE:DRI) - Darden reported $3.1 billion in revenue and $2.08 in adjusted earnings per share, beating revenue estimates but missing earnings estimates [8] - BTIG maintained a Buy rating with a price target of $225, while Stephens cut its price target from $215 to $205, citing weaker trends at Olive Garden [8] - The CFO noted that high beef prices were impacting margins, but stable sales at LongHorn Steakhouse were highlighted [8] Micron Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:MU) - Micron reported $13.64 billion in revenue and $4.78 in adjusted earnings per share, exceeding analyst estimates [9] - The results prompted Rosenblatt to raise the price target from $300 to $500, maintaining a Buy rating, driven by memory price strength and lower costs [9] - Cramer emphasized the strong demand for memory chips, particularly in AI, with Micron only able to meet 50% to 66% of customer demand [9][10]

Global Economic Overview - A higher nominal world has emerged, driven by persistent fiscal deficits, rising protectionism, and competitive currency devaluations, leading to a higher equilibrium for inflation and interest rates [2][20] - Global activity remained resilient in Q4 2025, despite renewed tariff pressures and persistent geopolitical tensions [4][20] - The US economy experienced moderate growth with easing inflation pressures and rising policy and trade uncertainty [4][8] United States - In Q4 2025, the US economy showed slowing but still positive activity, with disinflationary trends and intensifying policy and trade uncertainty [8][11] - Payroll gains decelerated, unemployment rose to 4.4%, and job cuts surged, indicating a softening labor market [8][11] - The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points in October and December, concluding quantitative tightening [11] Europe - Economic conditions in Europe improved modestly, with the HCOB Composite PMI rising to a 17-month high of 52.5 in October, although recovery remained uneven [12][15] - Eurozone headline CPI held steady at 2.1% in October and 2.2% in November, complicating the ECB's ability to guide markets towards a clearer easing trajectory [12][15] - The quarter reaffirmed a fragile but stabilizing growth trajectory, constrained by tight financial conditions and external trade headwinds [15] China and Emerging Markets - China maintained a GDP growth target of around 5% for 2025, despite facing weak domestic demand and property stress [16][20] - The People's Bank of China (PBoC) maintained an accommodative stance, relying on targeted liquidity injections to stabilize the property sector [16][20] - Asian equities modestly outperformed global peers, supported by strong AI-related demand and solid earnings [19][20] Investment Conclusions - The global economy continues to show resilience despite trade frictions and policy uncertainty, with a low probability of a deep US recession [20] - A moderate re-acceleration in global activity could revive cyclical inflation, emphasizing the importance of corporate earnings [20] - The investment strategy prioritizes capital preservation while using volatility and dispersion as opportunities for active management [20]

Market Overview - The market has experienced volatility, likened to the "Three Stooges," with tech stocks fluctuating significantly due to AI developments and inflation data [2][3] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) indicated positive inflation trends, but concerns about data accuracy arose due to the government shutdown [3] - Unemployment rose to 4.6%, but this figure may be overstated, suggesting a more favorable employment situation [3] Job Market Insights - Jobless claims have shown a slight dip, providing a reliable indicator amidst other fluctuating data [4] - The overall market sentiment suggests a flat trajectory for December, with alternating good and bad news days expected [5] IPO Market Developments - Medline's IPO was the largest of the year, raising over $6 billion and marking the biggest IPO since Rivian in 2021, with a stock price increase of 40% [6] - Anticipation surrounds SpaceX's potential IPO, with speculation about a valuation of $1.5 trillion, although no timeline has been established [7][8] Cannabis Industry Updates - The signing of an executive order by President Trump reclassifies marijuana from a Schedule I to a Schedule III drug, allowing companies to deduct business expenses, potentially boosting cash flows by up to $150 million [11][12][13] - Despite initial stock price increases, marijuana stocks experienced a decline following the executive order, indicating a "buy the rumor, sell the news" scenario [11][14] - Many cannabis companies are involved in both farming and distribution, which may impact their operational strategies moving forward [15]