Core Viewpoint - Oracle Corporation (ORCL) is expected to report earnings soon, with low expectations from the market regarding its performance [1] Company Summary - The upcoming earnings report is anticipated to reflect the various developments within Oracle since its last earnings announcement [1] Industry Context - The article references the author's extensive experience in the technology sector, particularly in navigating market challenges such as the dot-com bubble and the recent AI boom, emphasizing a focus on momentum [1]

Group 1 - Confluent Inc has agreed to be acquired by IBM in an $11 billion deal, translating to $31 per share in cash, enhancing IBM's data infrastructure capabilities and commitment to the AI sector [1] - Confluent's stock rose by 28.50% to $29.74, marking its highest level since early March and recovering its year-to-date breakeven level, with a significant 32.9% post-earnings drawdown from July 31 now filled [2] - Options trading activity has surged, with 41,000 calls traded, which is 29 times the average intraday volume, indicating strong bullish sentiment [3] Group 2 - IBM's stock increased by 1.4% to $312.28, approaching its all-time high of $324.90, and has a year-to-date gain of 42.6%, with short-term support at the 50-day moving average [4]

30 Under 30 AI 2026: Models Gets Bigger, Machines Get Smarter And Young Entrepreneurs Get RicherWith more than $1.5 billion raised, this year’s Under 30 listmakers are all in on the AI boom.https://t.co/JziOodPkhO #ForbesUnder30 https://t.co/QbFjvJpIOJ ...

Core Insights - Heartland Advisors reported a 4.65% return for its Heartland Opportunistic Value Equity Strategy in Q3 2025, underperforming the Russell 3000 Value Index which returned 5.63% [1] - The investment strategy is influenced by rising optimism regarding the AI boom and increased electricity demand, which have propelled large- and mid-cap growth stocks to new highs [1] Company Highlights - Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) was highlighted as a key stock in the investor letter, with a one-month return of -6.19% and a 52-week gain of 9.58% [2] - As of December 01, 2025, Amazon's stock closed at $233.88 per share, with a market capitalization of $2.5 trillion [2] Investment Strategy Commentary - The company initiated a position in Amazon during Q3 2025, noting that Amazon had previously traded at a premium compared to the S&P 500 Index and its retail peers [3] - Amazon's management has been investing heavily, which has led to fluctuations in earnings; for instance, the company doubled its retail distribution center footprint in 24 months post-COVID-19, impacting free cash flow and profit margins [3] - Current investments in high-margin areas like Amazon Web Services (AWS) and advertising are expected to enhance long-term profitability, despite short-term cost pressures [3]

Let's talk first of all, Bill, to you about the global state of macro right now and just what it means for the Fed, central banks writ large and interest rate policy. >> Well, Dom, I don't think there's any debate at all that the Fed is going to be easing. The real debate is how fast is it going to ease and when is it going to start the next phase of easing.uh and the December uncertainty is there because the more hawkish members of the FOMC are are clinging to the notion that well we don't have a lot of da ...

Core Insights - Michael Burry has shifted focus from investing to writing, launching a paywalled Substack called "Cassandra Unchained" to share his analytical insights on stocks, markets, and historical patterns [1][2] - Burry's initial posts address the AI boom, which he critiques as a "glorious folly" and plans to explore in depth over several entries [2][3] Industry Analysis - Burry compares the current AI boom to the dot-com bubble, arguing that despite the perception that today's companies are profitable, the underlying issues of overbuilt supply and insufficient demand remain similar [3] - He identifies the leading companies in the current AI landscape as the "five public horsemen" — Microsoft, Google, Meta, Amazon, and Oracle — alongside emerging startups like OpenAI [3] - Burry draws a parallel between Cisco during the dot-com crash and Nvidia in the current market, suggesting Nvidia is central to the AI boom despite its potential risks [4] Company Developments - Burry has closed Scion Asset Management's SEC registration, indicating a shift away from managing outside capital [5] - His recent return to social media includes commentary suggesting that the AI boom may be a bubble, advising caution in investment strategies [5]

Market Overview - The current market is perceived as overvalued, with the S&P 500 trading at approximately 2.5 standard deviations above its 50-month moving average, indicating a potential for correction [1][5] - The S&P 500 is heavily concentrated, with 40% of the index in the top 10 stocks and over 35% in the technology sector, raising concerns about future returns [5][10] Historical Context - The comparison to the dot-com bubble of 1999/2000 is significant, as the S&P 500 fell at an annual rate of 14.5% from 2000 to 2002, while the NASDAQ experienced a decline of over 32.6% [4][6] - During the 2000-2002 bear market, alternative assets such as gold, commodities, and certain sectors like healthcare and energy provided positive returns, contrasting with the overall market decline [6][7] Current Investment Landscape - Currently, large-cap value stocks are trading at nearly 17 times 2026 earnings, which is cheaper than the overall index but still not historically low [8] - US high-quality small-cap value stocks are more reasonably priced at about 13 times forward earnings, with mid-cap stocks slightly higher at 14 times [9] - International developed stocks are trading at 15 times forward earnings, with international value stocks at just 11 times, indicating potential investment opportunities outside the US [10] Sector Performance - Recent performance shows that sectors such as healthcare, consumer staples, energy, and real estate have outperformed the S&P 500 and NASDAQ during the recent market correction [11] - Specific ETFs in healthcare and consumer staples have shown positive total returns, while technology and consumer discretionary sectors have underperformed [12][14] Future Considerations - The potential success of AI technology is a key factor for companies that have heavily invested in AI infrastructure, with the risk that current stock prices may already reflect anticipated gains [19] - The market may be experiencing a shift as the initial hype around AI begins to fade, with notable declines in stocks like Meta and Microsoft since their peaks [18][19]

Economic Outlook - Without an AI boom, a recession may be avoided [1] - Tariffs, debt, and a growth slowdown plague the world economy [1] - The world economy may not have much to celebrate in 2026 [1]

Group 1 - Aswath Damodaran, a finance professor, warns that Nvidia and Tesla are the most irrationally valued companies in the current market [1][2] - Nvidia's market capitalization is projected to exceed $5 trillion by 2025, but Damodaran argues that the expectations for its stock price are unrealistic [2][3] - Tesla's valuation issues stem from a lack of clarity about its business direction, leading to fundamental incoherence [3] Group 2 - Damodaran expresses concern that the top 10 tech stocks, which represent about 40% of the S&P 500's market cap, could lead to a broader market downturn during a correction [3][4] - He identifies Alphabet and Amazon as the least overvalued companies among major tech firms, suggesting they have clearer paths to monetization [4][5] - Damodaran is shifting parts of his portfolio into cash and collectibles, indicating a drastic change for a value investor, as he finds it difficult to identify undervalued tech stocks [5] Group 3 - Tesla's stock was down 0.38% in premarket trading, closing at $408.92, with a year-to-date increase of 7.81% [5][6] - Nvidia's stock closed at $186.60, down 1.88%, with a year-to-date increase of 34.91% [7]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of momentum in navigating the technology landscape, particularly in the context of past market events such as the dot com bubble, the credit default crisis of 2008, and the recent AI boom [1] Group 1: Market Context - The author has over two decades of experience in the market, focusing on technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT) sectors [1] - The article highlights the significance of risk mitigation strategies employed during various market cycles [1] Group 2: Investment Focus - The primary focus of the service is on momentum, suggesting that it plays a crucial role in investment decisions within the technology sector [1]