Something doesn't make sense to me. If the government shutdown is now officially over, why is Bitcoin's price sinking further than it has in months. $98,000.97. >> We're going to win so much you may even get tired of winning. >> Yes, Bitcoin hasn't touched these levels since all the way back here, June of 2025.We hit a high in October and now we're down here. Down 22% from October all-time highs. If November were to end today, this would be one of the worst November on record for Bitcoin.>> And you'll say, ...

Market Overview - US stocks opened positively, with the Dow up approximately 450 points (about 1%) and the S&P 500 up about 0.2%, while the NASDAQ showed a slight decline of around 0.2% [2][3] - The market is experiencing a mixed picture, with sectors such as energy and real estate declining, while financials and healthcare are leading gains [3][4] Government Shutdown - The House of Representatives is expected to vote on a funding bill to reopen the government after a record-long shutdown, with optimism about securing the necessary votes [5][8] - The Senate previously passed a deal to keep the government open until January 30, with some provisions affecting federal workers [9][10] Federal Reserve and Economic Data - The government shutdown has delayed the release of critical economic data, including October inflation and unemployment figures, which are essential for the Federal Reserve's decision-making [11][18] - The Fed is facing a challenging environment with divided opinions on how to proceed, particularly regarding inflation and labor market concerns [16][19] Circle's Financial Performance - Circle, a stablecoin issuer, reported strong quarterly results, with USDC in circulation growing by 108% and revenue increasing by 66% to $740 million [48][49] - Despite strong performance, investor concerns about falling interest rates are impacting Circle's stock price [47][52] AI Data Center Investments - There is significant concern regarding the rapid increase in spending on AI data centers, projected to reach $1 trillion by 2030, which is affecting the bond market [27][28] - Large tech companies are leading the issuance of bonds to fund these data centers, with many having strong balance sheets [30][31] Housing Market Trends - The average time to break even on home ownership has increased to 7 to 10 years nationally, with coastal cities like New York and San Francisco seeing break-even points of 15 to 20 years [80][81] - A significant portion of renters (59%) plan to continue renting, indicating a shift towards a lifestyle choice rather than a temporary step towards home ownership [76][92] Analyst Calls and Stock Movements - AMD's stock rose after outlining a path to significant earnings growth, prompting Wells Fargo to raise its price target to $345 [67] - Oaklo's stock received a boost following optimistic analyst ratings despite missing quarterly expectations [68] - Clearwater Analytics is considering a potential sale after receiving takeover interest, reflecting ongoing consolidation in the financial services sector [74]

Group 1 - The crypto markets are experiencing a tentative recovery following a recent decline in broader financial markets, but analysts warn that this rebound may be short-lived due to ongoing macroeconomic risks [1][2] - A Senate vote to advance a bill to reopen the U.S. government has led to synchronized gains across crypto, gold, and equities, reflecting a temporary optimism in market sentiment [1][2] - Analysts describe the recent developments as a "short-term reprieve" that does not address underlying structural issues, with concerns remaining over the government shutdown, U.S.-China tariff tensions, and credit market volatility [2] Group 2 - Bitcoin's recent dip to $103,000 is attributed to a broader risk-off sentiment, including profit-taking after recent highs and cooling in the AI trade [3] - The upcoming inflation data is critical for setting market tone through year-end, with expectations of higher intraday volatility driven by a balance between institutional accumulation and liquidity shocks [4] - Despite near-term uncertainties, potential Federal Reserve rate cuts and resilient corporate earnings are expected to support risk sentiment and Bitcoin towards the end of the year [4] Group 3 - Users on the Myriad prediction market assign a 28% chance of two Federal Reserve rate cuts occurring in 2025, indicating market expectations for future monetary policy changes [5]

Group 1: US Stock Market - US stock markets experienced a notable climb as investor sentiment turned positive regarding the potential end of the ongoing government shutdown [2] - Optimism is high that a swift resolution will unlock critical economic data, which has been delayed, and boost confidence in the Federal Reserve's likelihood of implementing rate cuts [2][3] - The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite showed a particularly strong upward movement, with the S&P 500 also gaining significantly [2] Group 2: Government Shutdown - The Senate advanced legislation aimed at ending the government shutdown by voting 60-40 in favor of a temporary funding bill [3] - The cessation of the shutdown is expected to lead to the resumption of key US economic data releases, including the monthly jobs report, which are vital for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [3] Group 3: Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) - AMD outlined an ambitious financial outlook, projecting operating margins to exceed 35% and earnings per share (EPS) to surpass $20 within the next three to five years [4][8] - AMD anticipates gross margins to fall within the 55-58% range, leading to a 4.5% increase in shares during after-hours trading following these optimistic projections [4][8] Group 4: Aviation Sector - The aviation sector is navigating significant adjustments as US Transport Secretary Sean Duffy addressed recent flight reductions, stating that a 4% flight reduction was a data-driven decision originating from the safety office [5] - The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) ordered airlines to reduce flights at 40 major US airports due to strained air traffic control staffing during the government shutdown [5] - Airlines were initially required to cut flights by 4%, with potential increases to 10% if the shutdown continued [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has initiated its first interest rate cut in 2025, reducing the benchmark lending rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4% to 4.25%, with expectations for further cuts by year-end [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve cut its benchmark lending rate for the first time in 2025 [1] - Economists anticipate additional rate cuts by the end of the year, with forecasts suggesting two to three more cuts totaling 50 to 75 basis points [3] Group 2: Economic Impacts of Rate Cuts - Cheaper borrowing costs will result from lower interest rates, making loans less expensive [4] - Increased consumer spending is expected as lower rates encourage spending on big-ticket items [4] - Business investment is likely to rise as companies take advantage of lower borrowing costs for expansion and new projects [4] - Stock market growth may occur due to increased consumer spending and business investment [4] - A weaker U.S. dollar could result from lower rates, making U.S. exports cheaper but imports more expensive [4] - Inflationary pressure may build as lower interest rates lead to excessive spending [4] - The housing market may see a boost as lower mortgage rates encourage homebuying and increase housing prices [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's potential rate cuts may sustain elevated stock valuations, despite concerns about a stock market bubble driven by AI enthusiasm [1][6]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Impact on Markets - Lower interest rates encourage investors to shift from short-term assets to stocks, historically justifying higher stock valuations [2]. - The Fed's easing cycle typically does not burst bubbles; rather, bubbles tend to burst during tightening cycles [4]. - The Fed's current focus is on mitigating downside risks to the labor market and the broader economy rather than solely on asset prices [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Investor Sentiment - Investor skepticism is growing regarding AI spending, which could affect stock valuations despite lower interest rates [6]. - Any signs of rising inflation could negatively impact market sentiment, leading to adjustments in expectations about future rate cuts [7][8]. - Historical data indicates that 51% of significant corrections in the S&P 500 since 1965 were triggered by higher interest rates, with rising unemployment and external shocks also contributing factors [4].

Core Insights - CD rates are currently higher than historical averages, with several institutions offering rates of 4% APY and above, particularly from online banks [2][3] - The highest CD rate as of October 30, 2025, is 4.1% APY, available from Marcus by Goldman Sachs for a 14-month CD and Barclays Bank for a 6-month CD [2] - The Federal Reserve has been cutting its target rate, which has led to a decline in CD rates since last year [2][5] CD Rate Trends - CD rates have been on a downward trend since the Federal Reserve began reducing the federal funds rate in late 2024, cutting it by a total of one percentage point [3] - The Fed's first rate cut of 2025 occurred in September, with potential for additional cuts in the future, although the timing and number of cuts remain uncertain [4] Relationship with Federal Funds Rate - While the federal funds rate does not directly dictate deposit interest rates, there is a correlation; typically, when the Fed lowers rates, financial institutions adjust their rates accordingly [5] - The current environment suggests that now may be an opportune time for consumers to invest in CDs to lock in favorable rates before further declines [5] Opening a CD - The process for opening a CD account involves several steps, including researching competitive rates, choosing an appropriate account, preparing necessary documents, completing the application, and funding the account [6] - Key considerations when selecting a CD include interest rate, term length, minimum deposit requirements, and potential fees to avoid early withdrawal penalties [6]

Core Insights - Mortgage rates have dropped to their lowest level in over a year, with the average 30-year mortgage rate at 6.19% and the 15-year rate at 5.44% [1] - The decline in mortgage rates is attributed to the 10-year Treasury yield falling below 4% and market expectations of potential Federal Reserve rate cuts [1][2] - Existing home sales increased by 1.5% in September, indicating that lower mortgage rates are encouraging buyers to enter the market [6] Mortgage Rate Trends - The average 30-year mortgage rate decreased from 6.27% to 6.19%, while the 15-year rate fell from 5.52% to 5.44% [1] - The 10-year Treasury yield, which influences mortgage rates, has remained below 4% as investors seek safe-haven assets amid concerns of a government shutdown [1] - Market expectations suggest a 99% probability of a 25 basis points rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming meeting [2] Economic Indicators - The Consumer Price Index data for September is anticipated to be released soon, which could impact future mortgage rates depending on inflation trends [5] - A hotter-than-expected inflation report may lead traders to reassess the Fed's rate-cutting trajectory, potentially increasing mortgage rates [5] - Conversely, lower inflation could further decrease mortgage rates, supporting the housing market [5]

Core Viewpoint - The year-end setup for cryptocurrency remains positive, despite recent market volatility, according to Coinbase Institutional's report in collaboration with Glassnode [1] Market Conditions - Coinbase's stance is cautious but biased higher following the market shakeout on October 10, attributing the decline to heavy leverage and thin order books, which worsened due to auto-deleveraging on some exchanges [2] - Prices have stabilized, but market sentiment remains tentative amid macroeconomic concerns [2] Liquidity and Monetary Policy - The Global M2 Money Supply Index, which has historically tracked bitcoin, started the quarter in a supportive position, although tightening conditions are anticipated later in Q4 [3] - Coinbase expects two additional Federal Reserve rate cuts before year-end, which could encourage a shift of cash from money-market funds back into risk assets [3] On-Chain Activity - Stablecoin supply and monthly volumes are at or near record levels, indicating increased on-chain payments and transfers [4] - The infrastructure for U.S. spot ETFs for bitcoin and ether is improving, enhancing access for traditional investors and strengthening market depth [4] Investment Positioning - Coinbase favors bitcoin as "digital gold" amid ongoing concerns about fiscal and monetary discipline, while ether shows constructive signs due to scaling progress and improved sentiment [5] - An investor survey indicates a majority of institutions are bullish on bitcoin over the next three to six months, despite macroeconomic risks being a primary concern [5] Digital-Asset Treasury Companies - Digital-asset treasury companies (DATs) are described as significant and steady buyers of bitcoin and ether, holding a notable share of the circulating supply [6] - There are open questions regarding the long-term business models of DATs, especially in light of recent equity market weaknesses [6] Near-Term Risks - Coinbase acknowledges potential near-term hazards, including missing U.S. economic data due to the government shutdown and the possibility of fading liquidity in November [7] - Despite these risks, the overall outlook remains steady, with supportive liquidity conditions, policy progress, and expanding on-chain usage expected to continue into year-end [7]

Market Overview - U.S. stock futures rose on Thursday following mixed moves on Wednesday, with major benchmark indices showing positive futures [1] - The 10-year Treasury bond yielded 4.02%, while the two-year bond was at 3.50%, indicating market expectations for interest rate cuts [2] Earnings Reports - Bank of America Corp. and Morgan Stanley both exceeded Street expectations in their earnings reports [1] - Charles Schwab Corp. is expected to report earnings of $1.25 per share on revenue of $5.99 billion, with shares up 1.94% ahead of the announcement [6][8] - Salesforce Inc. set a revenue goal of over $60 billion by fiscal year 2030, indicating an organic compounded annual growth rate of over 10% from FY26 to FY30, with shares jumping 4.01% [7] - Hewlett Packard Enterprise reported record revenue due to AI demand but saw profit margins compressed by restructuring costs, leading to a 9.19% drop in shares [7] - J B Hunt Transport Services Inc. reported earnings of $1.76 per share, beating estimates, and revenue of $3.05 billion, also above expectations, resulting in a 12.44% increase in shares [17] - US Bancorp is expected to report earnings of $1.13 per share on revenue of $7.16 billion, with shares down 0.24% ahead of the announcement [17] Sector Performance - Gains in real estate, utilities, and communication services stocks led the S&P 500 to a positive close on Wednesday, while materials and industrials ended lower [11] - The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF rose in premarket trading, with SPY up 0.25% and QQQ up 0.43% [3] Analyst Insights - BlackRock maintains an overweight stance on U.S. equities, attributing the dollar's decline to predictable market factors rather than a threat to its reserve currency status [13][14] - The firm views potential Federal Reserve easing as a positive for American companies, supported by stronger corporate earnings in the U.S. compared to other developed markets [15]