US President Donald Trump has shifted his tariff deadline to August 1st, but Asia's export dependent economies are seeing little reprieve. In his first wave of letters, Trump hit Japan and South Korea with rates of 25%. And in Southeast Asia, the rates range from 25% for Malaysia to as high as 40% for smaller economies such as Laos and Myanmar.They're now left with about 3 weeks to negotiate lower rates before they come into effect. Trump has signaled he's open to negotiations. If they call with a different ...

Forecasters anticipate a monthly report on US employment will show slower hiring and the highest unemployment rate since 2021 as the Trump administration’s trade and immigration policy shifts start to leave an imprint https://t.co/bWU5uDfHjD ...

US Economic Weekly Economics - North America Waiting game Research Analysts North America Economics David Seif - NSI david.seif@nomura.com +1 212 667 9180 Aichi Amemiya - NSI aichi.amemiya@nomura.com +1 212 667 9347 Jeremy Schwartz - NSI jeremy.schwartz@nomura.com +1 212 667 9637 June FOMC meeting – hawkish on net The June FOMC meeting was hawkish on net. The 2025 median rate projection was left unchanqed at two cuts, but the committee was highly divided with 10 participants expectinq 2 or 3 rate cuts this ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The conference call primarily discusses the implications of U.S. trade policy, particularly focusing on tariffs and their impact on the global economy and U.S. businesses. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Legal Rulings on Tariffs**: The U.S. Court of International Trade ruled that President Trump's tariffs were imposed unlawfully, indicating that he overstepped his authority. This ruling has significant implications for U.S. trade policy and could lead to a reduction in tariffs [61][8][19]. 2. **Impact on Global Economy**: The uncertainty surrounding the future of tariffs is causing chaos in the global trading system, affecting U.S. consumers and businesses who may face higher prices if tariffs remain in place [7][6][19]. 3. **Political Ramifications**: The Trump administration's aggressive tariff strategy is being challenged legally, and the outcome of these legal battles could reshape U.S. trade relations, particularly with China and other trading partners [20][22][64]. 4. **Trade War with China**: The administration's actions to decouple from China, including revoking visas for Chinese students and suspending sales of critical technologies, reflect a broader strategy to reduce dependency on China [22][64]. 5. **Geopolitical Consequences**: The ongoing conflict in Ukraine and the U.S. response, including potential sanctions against Russia, are influencing U.S. trade policy and relationships with European allies [13][10]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Public Sentiment**: The legal challenges to tariffs and the administration's trade policies are causing public concern, particularly among consumers who may face increased costs [7][19]. 2. **Future of Trade Policy**: The administration's next steps regarding tariffs and trade relations will be critical in determining the future landscape of U.S. trade policy and its economic implications [19][20]. 3. **Judicial Influence**: The ongoing legal battles over tariffs may eventually reach the Supreme Court, which could set a precedent for future executive actions regarding trade [19][20]. This summary encapsulates the key discussions and implications surrounding U.S. trade policy as presented in the conference call, highlighting the legal, economic, and geopolitical dimensions of the current situation.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **Global Macro Outlook**, focusing on **US Rates**, **International Rates**, **Commodities**, **Currencies**, and **Emerging Markets** [3][4][5][6]. Core Insights and Arguments US Rates - **Treasury Yield Forecast**: The forecast for 10-year Treasury yields has been revised upward to **4.35%** by year-end, from **4.00%** previously. The 2-year Treasury yield is now expected to end the year at **3.50%**, up from **3.10%** [7][15]. - **Impact of Fiscal Policy**: The budget reconciliation bill could raise the primary deficit by **$150 billion** from FY25-26, which is **0.4% of GDP**. This could be offset by an estimated **$100 billion to $200 billion** in tariff revenue [31][32]. International Rates - **European Rates**: The recommendation is to stay **overweight (OW)** on European rates despite ongoing challenges [45]. Commodities - **Oil Demand**: Global oil demand has softened, primarily due to a decline in US oil consumption. As of May 20, demand increased by **340,000 barrels per day (kbd)** but remains nearly **300 kbd** below projections [92]. - **Price Forecasts**: Price forecasts for natural gas in Northwest Europe have been lowered to **35 EUR/MWh** for 2Q25 and 3Q25, down from **40/45 EUR/MWh** [7][97]. Copper prices are expected to average **$9,225/mt** over 2H25, while aluminum prices are forecasted at **$2,325/mt** [100]. Currencies - **Weaker Dollar Strategy**: The strategic call remains for a weaker dollar following the US-China tariff de-escalation. The dollar's performance is expected to be influenced by data rather than policy [5][69][72]. - **USD/CNY Forecast**: The forecast for USD/CNY has been adjusted downward, with expectations of **7.20** in 2Q and **7.30** in 4Q [89]. Emerging Markets - **Sovereign and Corporate Ratings**: The recommendation is to stay **underweight (UW)** on EM sovereigns while moving EM corporates to **market weight (MW)** due to tariff reprieve [8][45]. Other Important Insights - **Market Positioning**: Investor positioning in the Treasury market is no longer as stretched to the long side, indicating that active investors have more scope to add duration [26]. - **Foreign Holdings**: Foreign investors own approximately **30%** of the Treasury market, predominantly in short-dated securities [37][40]. - **Moody's Downgrade Impact**: Following Moody's downgrade of US debt, risks are skewed towards a bearish steepening in the near term, with expectations of higher interest expenses [32][36]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the macroeconomic landscape, commodity forecasts, currency strategies, and emerging market dynamics.

Group 1 - The current operating environment is experiencing significant disruption due to changes in U.S. policy, particularly under the Trump administration [3] - The trade policy has shifted from a maximalist approach to a more manageable framework, although higher tariff levels remain [3] - The transition from a maximalist to a more manageable trade policy is expected to involve volatility, including individual tweets on tariffs and potential legal challenges [3]

Monetary Policy Strategy - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is reviewing its monetary policy framework, focusing on price stability and the implications of inflation experiences over the past five years [4][5][6] - Participants reaffirmed their commitment to a 2 percent longer-run inflation objective, emphasizing the importance of anchored inflation expectations for achieving price stability and maximum employment [6][7] - Discussions included the advantages and disadvantages of flexible average inflation targeting versus flexible inflation targeting, with a consensus leaning towards flexible inflation targeting as a more robust strategy [8] Financial Market Developments - Significant market volatility was observed, with longer-maturity Treasury yields rising and the dollar depreciating by over 2 percent against major currencies [9][10] - Market participants lowered GDP forecasts and raised inflation expectations, increasing the probability of a recession within the next six months [9][10] - Liquidity in foreign exchange markets deteriorated but remained consistent with historical volatility measures [11] Economic Situation - Consumer price inflation was reported at 2.3 percent in March, with core PCE inflation at 2.6 percent, both lower than the previous year [22] - The unemployment rate stabilized at 4.2 percent, with solid labor market conditions and average monthly payroll gains consistent with previous years [23] - Real GDP showed a slight decline in the first quarter, attributed to measurement issues and a surge in imports ahead of anticipated tariff hikes [24] Financial Stability - The U.S. financial system's vulnerabilities were characterized as notable, with asset valuation pressures and high housing valuations amid economic uncertainty [37] - Credit quality remained stable for large firms and most mortgage categories, but concerns were noted in the commercial real estate sector [35] - The staff projected a weaker economic outlook due to trade policies, with expectations of slower productivity growth and a widening output gap [41] Committee Policy Actions - The FOMC decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4¼ to 4½ percent, citing solid economic activity and elevated inflation [59][64] - The Committee expressed a commitment to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to the 2 percent objective, while remaining cautious due to increased uncertainty [63][64] - Future adjustments to the federal funds rate will be based on incoming data and the evolving economic outlook [60][64]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2025 was $5.7 million, down from $53 million in Q4 2024 [11] - Tons shipped in Q1 2025 were 3.8 million, a decrease from 4.1 million tons in Q4 2024 [11] - Average realization for metallurgical coal sales in Q1 was $122.08 per ton, down from $132.63 per ton in Q4 [12] - Cost of coal sales for the metallurgical segment increased to $110.34 per ton in Q1, up from $108.82 per ton in Q4 [12] - Total liquidity as of March 31, 2025, was $485.8 million, down from $519.4 million at the end of Q4 2024 [13] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Metallurgical coal segment realizations decreased quarter over quarter, with export met tons priced against Atlantic indices realizing $119.39 per ton in Q1, down from $122.24 in Q4 [11][12] - Incidental thermal portion of the metallurgical segment saw an increase in realization to $79.39 per ton in Q1 from $75.39 in Q4 [12] - CapEx for Q1 was $38.5 million, down from $42.7 million in Q4 [13] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Metallurgical coal markets remained under pressure with pricing levels deteriorating due to weak steel demand [22] - All four indices monitored by the company fell 8% or more during Q1, with the Australian Premium Low Vol Index dropping 15.5% [22] - As of May 8, 2025, the Australian premium low vol index increased to $190.5 per metric ton from its quarter-end level [24] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on liquidity and safeguarding its financial position amid challenging market conditions [6][9] - Adjustments to sales volume guidance were announced, with expected shipments for the year now at 15.3 million tons, down from 16.7 million tons [8] - The Kingston Wildcat project is expected to continue on schedule despite the downward revision to planned development CapEx [9][20] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed a cautious outlook for the rest of the year due to weak steel demand and increased uncertainty from tariffs and trade policies [6][8] - The company has taken difficult actions, including cutting production at higher-cost operations and reducing wages across the enterprise [7][19] - Management remains optimistic about the Kingston Wildcat project, which is expected to ramp up to a full run rate of approximately 1 million tons per year by 2026 [20] Other Important Information - The company has secured an amendment to its asset-based lending facility, increasing its size from $155 million to $225 million [10] - The company did not repurchase any shares in Q1 under its share buyback program due to market conditions [15] Q&A Session Summary Question: Recent cost-cutting measures and cost guidance - Management confirmed that recent cost-cutting measures have helped offset the loss of fixed cost absorption, maintaining guidance relatively firm despite production cuts [34][35] Question: CapEx reductions and growth projects - Most capital reductions are related to closures and reallocating assets, with no significant impact on future business [38][39] Question: Realization side and market conditions - In a weak market, discounting against indices is common, but not universal; some recent business concluded at a premium to the index [48] Question: Shipment guidance and domestic vs export - The reduction in shipment guidance primarily affects export tons, with confidence in maintaining overall guidance despite operational changes [46][47] Question: Opportunities in the marketplace - Management is cautious about pursuing M&A opportunities, focusing on internal projects like Kingston Wildcat for strengthening the portfolio [50][51] Question: Domestic market considerations - The domestic market is currently among the higher pricing, but management will evaluate customer needs over the summer [56][57] Question: Potential for small competitors exiting the market - There is still potential for small competitors to exit the market, with liquidity concerns affecting less well-capitalized companies [60][61]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2025 was $5.7 million, down from $53 million in Q4 2024 [11] - Tons shipped in Q1 2025 were 3.8 million, a decrease from 4.1 million tons in Q4 2024 [11] - Average realization for metallurgical coal sales in Q1 was $122.08 per ton, down from $132.63 per ton in Q4 [12] - Cost of coal sales for the metallurgical segment increased to $110.34 per ton in Q1, up from $108.82 per ton in Q4 [12] - Unrestricted cash as of March 31, 2025, was $448 million, down from $481.6 million at the end of 2024 [13] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Metallurgical coal segment realizations decreased quarter over quarter, with average realization of $118.61 in Q1, down from $127.84 in Q4 [11] - Incidental thermal portion of the metallurgical segment saw an increase in realization to $79.39 per ton in Q1 from $75.39 in Q4 [12] - CapEx for Q1 was $38.5 million, down from $42.7 million in Q4 [13] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Metallurgical coal markets remained under pressure with pricing levels deteriorating due to weak steel demand [21] - All four indices monitored by the company fell 8% or more during Q1, with the Australian Premium Low Vol Index dropping 15.5% [21] - As of May 8, 2025, the Australian premium low vol index increased to $190.5 per metric ton from quarter-end levels [23] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on liquidity and safeguarding its financial position amid challenging market conditions [6] - Adjustments to sales volume guidance were announced, with expected shipments for the year now at 15.3 million tons, down from 16.7 million tons [7] - The Kingston Wildcat project is expected to continue on schedule despite the downward revision to planned development CapEx [8] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed a cautious outlook for the rest of the year due to weak steel demand and increased uncertainty from tariffs and trade policies [6] - The company has taken difficult actions, including cutting production at higher-cost operations and reducing wages across the enterprise [7] - Management remains optimistic about the Kingston Wildcat project, which is expected to ramp up to a full run rate of approximately 1 million tons per year by 2026 [20] Other Important Information - The company has secured an amendment to its asset-based lending facility, increasing its size from $155 million to $225 million [10] - Total liquidity as of March 31, 2025, was $485.8 million, down from $519.4 million at the end of 2024 [13] Q&A Session Summary Question: Recent cost-cutting measures and cost guidance - Management confirmed that significant production cuts have been made, but cost guidance remains relatively firm [32] Question: CapEx reduction and growth projects - Most capital reductions are related to closures, with some growth CapEx being managed in-house [36] Question: Realization pressures and market conditions - Management acknowledged that discounting against indices is occurring in a weak market, but not universally [48] Question: Domestic versus export shipment guidance - The reduction in shipment guidance primarily affects export tons, with domestic shipments expected to continue [46] Question: Opportunities in the marketplace - Management is cautious about pursuing M&A opportunities due to market conditions but remains focused on internal projects [51] Question: Domestic market considerations - Management will evaluate domestic market opportunities as summer approaches, but no firm numbers are set [56] Question: Impact of smaller competitors exiting the market - Management believes there are still tons that could exit the market due to liquidity issues among smaller companies [60] Question: Cash balance strategy through the cycle - Management continuously evaluates cash balance strategies, adapting to market conditions [61]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q1 2025, the company generated consolidated adjusted EBITDA of approximately $1.9 billion, distributable cash flow of approximately $1.3 billion, and net income of approximately $350 million [9][39]. - Compared to Q1 2024, the results reflect higher total margins due to increased international gas prices and optimization of cargo sales [39]. Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company achieved substantial completion on the first train of the Corpus Christi Stage three project ahead of schedule and within budget, with commissioning completed in March [9][10]. - The company produced and sold approximately 6 TBtu of LNG attributable to the commissioning of Train one of the Stage three project [39]. Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - LNG imports into Europe rose 23% year-on-year in Q1 to 36 million tons, with U.S. deliveries increasing 34% to 20.5 million tons [27]. - In contrast, China's LNG imports declined 25% year-on-year to 15.1 million tons due to stronger domestic production and increased pipeline imports [30]. Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on expanding its LNG platform and developing new production capacity to meet global energy demands [7]. - The company aims to achieve first LNG from Train two by the end of the month and expects Train four to be commissioned by the end of the year [11][19]. Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the LNG market is characterized by heightened volatility and geopolitical risks, but remains committed to operational excellence [8][14]. - The long-term LNG demand outlook remains strong, with the company well-positioned to navigate trade dynamics and maintain its competitive edge [46][47]. Other Important Information - The company has locked in over $500 million of costs for midscale trains eight and nine, mitigating risks associated with inflation for materials and equipment [17][43]. - The company declared a dividend of $0.50 per common share for Q1 and remains committed to growing its dividend by approximately 10% annually [41]. Q&A Session Summary Question: Current contracting market and trade agreements - Management highlighted the strong position of LNG in balancing trade and the company's selective partnerships to capture market premiums [52][55]. Question: Competitive advantage in the marketplace - Management emphasized the company's focus on differentiated opportunities and strong customer relationships, avoiding commoditized competition [58]. Question: Permitting process and future projects - Management discussed the administration's focus on permitting reform and the positive progress on permits for midscale trains eight and nine [61][63]. Question: Vulnerability to LNG supply shocks in 2025 - Management acknowledged Europe's vulnerability due to low inventories and the cessation of Russian gas flows, indicating potential for increased demand for U.S. LNG [64][66]. Question: 2020 Vision capital allocation update - Management confirmed progress on the 2020 Vision, with significant capital deployed towards shareholder returns and growth initiatives [70][71]. Question: Future contracting strategy in light of global trade realignment - Management reiterated the importance of Chinese counterparties while emphasizing that U.S. volumes to China are not critical for the company's strategy [80][82].