Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Global trade volumes have been holding up relatively well in April, with air freight markets re-accelerating after a slowdown [1] - A forecasted 1% year-over-year decline in global container volumes for 2025, primarily driven by declines in the Pacific region [2] - Container rates have remained steady, supported by blanked sailings on the Pacific [3] Summary by Sections Freight: Holding up for now - High-frequency freight data indicates that global trade volumes are stable, with air freight showing signs of recovery [1] Air Freight: April supported by frontloading - Air freight volumes have seen a resurgence due to frontloading, with strong indicators from Europe and Asia [1][2] Sea: April holding up, SE Asia strong - Container volumes increased by 7% year-over-year in March, with Southeast Asia showing robust trade activity [35] Shipping: Blanking supports rates for now - China-outbound container spot rates fell approximately 45% by April 2 but have stabilized since then, aided by carriers blanking sailings [3][92] Travel: Uncertainty on demand outlook - The report highlights uncertainty regarding future demand in the travel sector, although specific data is not provided [6] Airlines - No specific insights provided in the summary regarding airlines [6] Airports: Spain slowing, Zurich and Paris incrementally better - The report notes varying performance across European airports, with some showing improvement while others are slowing [6] Roads: Europe road traffic growing - European road traffic is reported to be growing, indicating a potential increase in logistics activity [6] Commodities Shipping - No specific insights provided in the summary regarding commodities shipping [6] Stable Markets, Supported by Low Capacity Growth - The report suggests that stable markets are being supported by low capacity growth, although specific data is not provided [6]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported record revenues of $17.7 billion and EPS of $2.60, with a return on tangible equity (ROTCE) of 23% [5][16]. - The efficiency ratio for the first quarter was 68%, despite incurring $144 million in severance charges related to performance management [17][18]. - The common equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio stood at 15.3%, indicating a strong capital position [6][43]. Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Institutional Securities achieved record revenues of $9 billion, up 28% year-over-year, driven by strong performance in equity and fixed income [18][19]. - Wealth Management generated revenues of $7.3 billion, with a reported margin of 27% and $94 billion in net new assets [29][30]. - Investment Management reported revenues of $1.6 billion, a 16% increase year-over-year, with total assets under management (AUM) ending at $1.6 trillion [39]. Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted increased volatility in stock, bond, and currency markets, with a heightened risk of recession but a consensus leaning towards softer growth rather than negative [9][11]. - Client activity remained strong across various regions, particularly in Asia, where Institutional Securities revenues were up 35% year-over-year [77][78]. Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company emphasized a strategy focused on raising, managing, and allocating capital for clients, with a commitment to long-term growth despite near-term uncertainties [14][15]. - The management highlighted the importance of maintaining a strong global presence and adapting to changing market dynamics, particularly in Asia and Europe [79][82]. Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed cautious optimism regarding the economic outlook, noting that while some clients are pausing strategic activities, others continue to engage actively [92][95]. - The company is preparing for potential regulatory reforms, particularly regarding the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR), which could provide additional opportunities for capital deployment [99][100]. Other Important Information - The company repurchased $1 billion of common stock during the quarter, reflecting its commitment to returning capital to shareholders [42]. - The firm experienced strong demand for strategic advice and capital raising, despite some disruptions in near-term deal activity due to market volatility [23][24]. Q&A Session Summary Question: Equities trading outlook - Management noted that client activity across all products and regions was strong, and while a weaker economy could impact trading, current engagement levels remain high [51][55]. Question: M&A outlook - Management highlighted encouraging trends in M&A activity, with year-over-year growth across all client segments, despite some market deterioration [58][60]. Question: Risk management in trading - Management indicated that client engagement remains strong, and while there is natural volatility, the market-making function continues to perform well [72][74]. Question: International business prospects - Management expressed bullish sentiments regarding the international business, particularly in Asia, emphasizing the importance of local engagement and partnerships [77][81]. Question: Impact of SLR changes - Management discussed the potential impact of SLR reforms on capital deployment, emphasizing the need for a holistic view of regulatory changes [99][100]. Question: Advisor business trends - Management reported strong interest in the advisor platform, with increased recruitment and retention trends, particularly in the self-directed and advisor-led channels [108][110].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs economists initially predicted a 65% chance of a recession within the next 12 months due to new U.S. tariffs, but retracted this forecast shortly after President Trump announced a pause on reciprocal tariffs [2][3]. Group 1: Economic Predictions - Goldman Sachs issued a note predicting a 65% chance of recession due to tariffs that took effect on April 8 [2]. - The prediction was made shortly before 1 p.m. in New York, and the retraction occurred at 2:10 p.m. after Trump's announcement [2][3]. Group 2: Trade Policy Developments - President Trump announced a pause on tariffs imposed on countries other than China, while increasing tariffs on China by 125% [3][4]. - The pause on tariffs is set for 90 days, with a substantially lowered reciprocal tariff of 10% during this period [4]. Group 3: Corporate Strategy Implications - CFOs are urged to "rightsize" operations and adapt new import or manufacturing strategies amid evolving trade policies [5]. - The complexity of global trade is pushing CFOs to take on roles beyond traditional finance, focusing on global supply chain strategy [5].