Group 1 - The iShares S&P 100 ETF (OEF) has reached a 52-week high, increasing 33.6% from its low price of $232.57 per share [1] - OEF provides exposure to the 101 largest U.S. companies, with significant holdings in Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment, Software & Services, and Media & Entertainment [1] - The ETF charges an annual fee of 20 basis points [1] Group 2 - The large-cap segment of the market has gained attention due to the recent surge in the stock market, with the S&P 500 reaching new record highs and surpassing the 6,300 milestone [2] - This rally is attributed to resilient corporate earnings, a softer inflation environment, and increasing expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2] Group 3 - OEF currently holds a Zacks ETF Rank 2 (Buy) with a Medium risk outlook, indicating potential for continued outperformance in the coming months [3] - Many sectors within this ETF have a strong Zacks Industry Rank, suggesting promising opportunities for investors [3]

Interest Rate Expectations - Expectations for further interest rate cuts this year from the Bank of Canada are slowly evaporating [1]

I think that's right. I believe that. But here's what's happened.The Fed now says, "Well, we'll make a decision about interest rate cuts depending on whether prices of goods in the next month or two go up." Well, what that's really saying is they must be doubting their own inflation fighting credibility. If they were a very credible central bank, they could say, "We're looking past this one-off change in prices." And so, their hesitancy to cut rates, I think, is actually quite a quite a mark against them. I ...

Market Trends & Economic Outlook - US stock futures are treading carefully as bond yields have picked up, leading investors to scale back bets on Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [2] - The 10-year Treasury yield has added nearly 15 basis points in the past week, approaching 45% [5] - Traders reassess expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts as price increases accelerated in June [5] - The market is closely watching President Trump's trade plans and potential tariffs on pharmaceutical companies and semiconductors, assessing their impact on inflation [6] - Bets on Federal Reserve interest rate cuts are fading as recent data has shown signs of sticky inflation, with core prices increasing 29% in June compared to the prior year [47] - Traders now see just a 52% chance the Fed cuts rates in September, down from a 70% chance seen just a week ago [48] AI & Technology Sector - Nvidia closed at a record high, above $170 per share, with plans to sell H20 AI chips in China [7] - ASML, a supplier of computer chipmaking equipment, said it may not achieve growth in 2026 due to macroeconomic uncertainty and geopolitical developments; shares fell more than 7% in pre-market trading [8] - The AI trade is considered to be in a 3-5 year bull market, but may be overheated in the short term [10][11] - Apple announced that it would buy rare earth magnets from MP Materials in a $500 million deal [46] Banking & Financial Performance - Bank of America reported adjusted earnings per share of 89 cents, higher than analyst expectations of 85 cents, with revenue at $265 billion [16] - Bank of America's net interest income for the second quarter came in at $1467 billion, above estimates for $146 billion [18] - Bank of America's trading revenue in the second quarter came in at $538 billion, exceeding the street's expectation of $494 billion [19] - Bank of America's investment banking revenue came in at $143 billion, slightly above estimates for $127 billion [21] Precious Metals Market - Silver has risen more than 28% this year, outperforming gold and copper [24] - Croup forecasts silver to continue to soar above $40 an ounce [24] - Central banks have been a huge determining force in their buying of gold, with over 1,000 tons bought in each of the last three years [31] - Trump's tariffs on copper threatening to be 50% on August 1st, we're seeing a lot of front running in this trade [28] Healthcare Sector - Johnson and Johnson reported second quarter adjusted EPS of $277, boosting its full-year sales outlook to a range of $932 billion to $936 billion and full-year adjusted earnings per share to a range of $1080 to $1090 [42][43] - The pharma sector is bracing for potential tariffs from President Trump [44] Impact of Tariffs - Rio Tinto said that US tariffs on its Canada-made aluminum have added $300 million in costs in the first half of this year [39] - Trump hit Canada with a 50% tariff on aluminum and auto parts in June [40]

Federal Reserve Policy - Market expectations for rate cuts are becoming increasingly difficult to justify based on CPI data [1] Inflation & Market Expectations - The market is expecting rate cuts [1]

Inflation & Interest Rates - India's inflation eased for the eighth consecutive month [1] - This strengthens the case for further interest rate cuts by the central bank [1]

Group 1 - BOC Aviation (BOCA) delivered 13 aircraft in 2Q25, maintaining flat year-over-year (YoY) and increasing two quarter-over-quarter (QoQ), with a total of 24 aircraft delivered in 1H25, which is an increase of six YoY and four half-over-half (HoH) [1] - The firm’s self-owned fleet grew to 441 aircraft by the end of 1H25, up 12 YoY and six HoH, while the order book increased to 351, reflecting a growth of 132 YoY and 119 HoH [1] - Aircraft lease rates are trending upward, with the Airbus A320NEO lease rate rising approximately 6% YoY as of February 2025, supporting high-priced contract execution and potentially lifting gross lease rental yields [2] Group 2 - The firm sold 14 self-owned aircraft in 2Q25, an increase of three YoY and 10 QoQ, with a total of 18 self-owned aircraft sold in 1H25, also up three YoY [3] - The market value of the firm’s self-owned fleet exceeded book value by 15% as of the end of 2024, indicating that steady aircraft disposals could improve fleet quality and realize asset premiums [3] Group 3 - The firm has a higher exposure to floating-rate liabilities (27% at end-2024), making it more sensitive to interest rate cuts compared to leasing peers, with historical share price movements closely tied to US Treasury yields and interest rate cut expectations [5] - In previous periods of rising interest rate cut expectations, the firm’s share price increased by 18.7% from its trough to peak in November 2023 and climbed 26.2% by July 2024, suggesting potential short-term catalysts for share price [5] Group 4 - Improved aircraft deliveries are expected to drive up gross lease rental yields, while overseas interest rate cuts may lower financing costs, leading to a steady recovery in the firm’s return on equity (ROE) [6] - The firm’s historical average valuation has shown a strong correlation with its ROE, indicating that ROE expansion could provide room for a steady rise in valuation [6]

Monetary Policy - Mexico's central bank indicated a likely deceleration in the pace of interest rate cuts [1] - The signal follows last month's 0.5 percentage point reduction [1]

Chile’s consumer prices fell twice as much as expected in June, fueling expectations that the central bank will resume interest rate cuts this month https://t.co/fxVZLYUfoE ...

Investment Ratings - Harvey Norman (HVN AU) is rated Overweight (OW) with a price target of A$6.50 [11][27][30] - Wesfarmers (WES AU) is rated Underweight (UW) with a price target of A$67.00 [19][30] Core Insights - Harvey Norman is expected to benefit from a recovering housing cycle, with earnings projected to turn positive in FY25 after previous declines [11][12][27] - Wesfarmers' core businesses, Bunnings and Kmart, are stable but mature, with limited growth potential and high valuation multiples already reflecting their quality [19][30] Summary by Sections Harvey Norman - The investment thesis highlights an improving outlook from a low base, with earnings declines moderating and expected sales recovery [11][27] - Key drivers include a recovering housing cycle, resilient franchisee sales momentum, and high operating leverage to sales acceleration [12][27] - Valuation remains attractive at a FY25E P/E multiple of approximately 14x, with a significant discount to broader industrials [4][27] Wesfarmers - The investment thesis indicates an Underweight rating due to high valuation multiples that do not justify current earnings growth expectations [19][30] - Key challenges include capped sales growth for Bunnings and Kmart, ongoing losses at Mt Holland in a weak lithium market, and limited organic growth opportunities [20][30] - The valuation is stretched at around 33x FY26E PER, despite recent earnings downgrades [9][30]