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Group 1 - The article discusses the impact of high inflation on the average American's budget and suggests that interest rate cuts may be on the horizon despite the current wait-and-see approach by Jerome Powell [1] - It highlights the profile of a typical low-budget dividend investor, characterized as a Generation X individual seeking income-generating strategies in a challenging economic environment [1] - The investor's strategy combines conservative income-generating methods with an acknowledgment of growth investment wisdom, indicating a blend of traditional and modern investment approaches [1]

Market Overview - The Nasdaq Composite and the Dow Jones Industrial Average have lost 1.03% and 0.52% year-to-date, while the S&P 500 has gained 0.60% [1] - Investor hesitance is attributed to President Trump's announcement of sweeping tariffs on all U.S. trading partners, although a potential truce between the U.S. and China may lead to reduced import duties [1] Economic Indicators - The consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.2% sequentially in April and 2.3% year-over-year, marking the lowest increase since February 2021 [2] - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated that more clarity is needed before considering further interest rate cuts, with analysts expecting no cuts until at least September [2] - Ongoing trade conflicts raise fears of a potential recession, which could negatively impact inflation and key economic indicators [2] Investment Opportunities - In volatile market conditions, dividend-paying stocks are recommended for portfolio diversification [3] - Notable dividend-paying companies include Marriott International (MAR), HNI, Sun Life Financial, ESAB Corporation, and Victory Capital Holdings [3] - Companies that consistently pay dividends indicate a healthy business model, and those that have recently raised dividends show a sound financial structure [3] Company Spotlight: Marriott International - Marriott International is a leading global hospitality company involved in the operation, franchising, and licensing of various lodging properties [4] - The company has a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [4] - On May 9, Marriott declared a dividend of 67 cents per share, with a dividend yield of 0.9% [5] - Over the past five years, Marriott has increased its dividend five times, with a current payout ratio of 26% of earnings [5]

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is wrapping up its final meeting of the year today. During these meetings, the committee assesses the health of the economy and potentially adjusts the federal funds rate. Read on to learn more about the timeline for this meeting, what it involves, and expected outcomes. Read more: Federal Reserve live coverage: Fed set to cut interest rates for third time this year, 2026 forecast in focus When is the next Fed meeting? The latest FOMC meeting is taking place on ...

Core Insights - Citigroup, Inc. shares have increased by 8.2% since the release of its first-quarter 2025 results, outperforming the industry growth of 5.7%, indicating investor optimism regarding the bank's performance and positive market sentiment [1][4]. Financial Performance - Citigroup reported a net interest income (NII) of $14 billion for Q1 2025, a 4% increase year-over-year, driven by higher deposit spreads and increased loan balances, particularly in the U.S. Personal Banking and Services segments [5]. - Non-interest income rose to $7.6 billion, a 1% increase year-over-year, supported by strong performance in markets, banking, and wealth divisions, despite a decline in the All Other segment [6]. - Operating expenses decreased by 5% year-over-year to $13.4 billion, attributed to reduced FDIC special assessment expenses and lower compensation expenses [7]. - Total non-accrual loans fell by 2% year-over-year to $2.7 billion, while the allowance for credit losses on loans was $18.7 billion, down 2%. However, provisions for credit losses increased by 15% year-over-year to $2.7 billion, reflecting a deteriorating macroeconomic outlook [8]. Strategic Initiatives - Citigroup is undergoing a business restructuring to streamline operations and reduce expenses, including a plan to eliminate 20,000 jobs over two years, with approximately 10,000 jobs cut in 2024 [9][10]. - The company aims to keep expenses below $53.4 billion in 2025, down from $53.9 billion in 2024 [11]. - Citigroup has exited consumer banking in nine countries and completed the separation of its institutional banking operations in Mexico, which is expected to free up capital for higher-return segments like wealth management and investment banking [12]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates a compounded annual growth rate of 4-5% in revenues by the end of 2026 and aims for annualized run rate savings of $2-2.5 billion by 2026 [13]. - Citigroup projects NII (excluding Markets) to rise by 2-3% in 2025 compared to 2024 levels, supported by expected interest rate cuts [16]. - As of March 31, 2025, Citigroup's cash and total investments amounted to $761 billion, with total debt at $317.4 billion, indicating a strong liquidity position [16][17]. - The company has a $20 billion common stock repurchase program and has repurchased $1.75 billion of common shares in Q1 2025, with similar levels targeted for Q2 [18]. Valuation and Market Position - Citigroup is currently trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 8.65X, below the industry average of 11.94X, indicating a potentially undervalued position relative to peers [22][25]. - The stock is cheaper than Bank of America and Wells Fargo, which have forward P/E multiples of 10.30X and 11.40X, respectively [25].

Core Viewpoint - AngloGold Ashanti PLC (AU) has seen a significant stock appreciation of 86.9% year to date, outperforming the Zacks Mining - Gold industry's 53.8% rise, while the Basic Materials sector has only risen by 0.9% and the S&P 500 has declined by 12.6% in the same period [1][3]. Performance Summary - The AU stock closed at $43.14, which is 8% below its 52-week high of $46.90 reached on April 16, 2025 [3]. - The stock has outperformed major gold mining peers such as Newmont Corporation (NEM), Kinross Gold (KGC), and Barrick Gold Corporation (GOLD), which have seen stock increases of 46.9%, 58.8%, and 29% respectively this year [3][4]. Technical Indicators - AU has been trading above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) since January 14, 2025, and is also above the 50-day SMA, indicating a bullish trend [5][7]. Drivers of Stock Surge - Rising gold prices have contributed significantly, with gold gaining 26% year to date, influenced by tariff tensions and geopolitical uncertainties. Gold briefly reached a record high of $3,500 before settling at $3,370 per ounce [10]. - The completion of the Centamin acquisition in November 2024 has added a significant asset to AngloGold Ashanti's portfolio, with the potential to produce 500,000 ounces annually [12]. - The company reported mineral reserves of 31.2 million ounces at the end of 2024, with a low adjusted net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio of 0.21, the lowest since 2011 [13]. Financial Performance - In 2024, AngloGold Ashanti's total gold production was 2.661 million ounces, with a gold income increase of 27% to $5.67 billion, driven by a 24% rise in average gold prices [15]. - Total cash costs per ounce rose by 4% year-over-year to $1,157, while all-in-sustaining costs (AISC) also increased by 4% to $1,611 per ounce [16][17]. - Free cash flow surged to $942 million in 2024 from $109 million in 2023, with earnings per share reaching $2.21 compared to a loss of 11 cents in 2023 [18]. Future Projections - Gold production for 2025 is projected to be between 2.9 million and 3.225 million ounces, indicating a year-over-year growth of 9-21% [19]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AU's 2025 sales is $7.27 billion, suggesting a 25.5% year-over-year growth, with earnings expected to grow by 12.7% [20]. Valuation Insights - AngloGold Ashanti is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 17.34X, which is above the industry average of 16.88X and higher than its five-year median [24]. - The average price target for AU suggests a potential decline of 12.4% from its last closing price, with the highest target indicating a dip of 2.6% [30]. Strategic Developments - The proposed joint venture with Gold Fields to combine their Tarkwa and Iduapriem gold mines is currently on hold due to pending approvals from the Ghana government, which could impact future production and cost efficiencies [32][34].

Industry Overview - The Materials Sector on Wall Street faced a challenging 2024, becoming one of the worst-performing sectors in the S&P 500 with a decline of 1.5% due to global economic concerns, particularly a slowdown in China and insufficient interest rate reductions [1] - Demand for materials such as steel, copper, and chemicals has been dampened, adversely impacting companies across the sector [1] Economic Factors - Global central banks, including the Fed, have initiated interest rate cuts after a period of tightening, which can lower borrowing costs for materials companies and stimulate demand in construction and manufacturing [2] - China has introduced economic stimulus packages aimed at revitalizing its economy, which could lead to increased demand for materials due to its significant role as a global importer [2] Sector-Specific Opportunities - Copper producers may benefit from short-term economic rebounds and long-term supply-demand imbalances, especially as copper is essential in electric vehicles and renewable energy infrastructure [3] - The imposition of a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports by the U.S. is expected to boost domestic production by reducing foreign competition [3] Geopolitical Dynamics - Tariffs have intensified the geopolitical race for rare earths and critical minerals, with China's export restrictions on materials like terbium and dysprosium disrupting supply chains in industries such as electric vehicles and defense [4] - The U.S. is accelerating efforts to boost domestic production, including initiatives to streamline mining permits and develop processing capabilities [4] Future Outlook - Despite the challenges faced in 2024, the outlook for the Materials sector in 2025 appears more promising due to economic stimulus measures, lower interest rates, and sector-specific growth areas [5] - Investors may find opportunities in companies strategically positioned to benefit from these macroeconomic and industry-specific trends [5] Company Highlights - Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD) has an expected earnings growth rate of 3% for the current year, with a Zacks Consensus Estimate improvement of 17.7% over the past 60 days, holding a Zacks Rank 2 and a VGM Score of B [7] - The Andersons, Inc. (ANDE) is expected to have a 22.8% earnings growth rate for the next year, with a 4.5% improvement in the current-year earnings estimate, holding a Zacks Rank 1 and a VGM Score of B [8] - Intrepid Potash, Inc. (IPI) has an expected earnings growth rate of 46.7% for the current year, with a significant 64.4% improvement in the current-year earnings estimate, holding a Zacks Rank 2 and a VGM Score of B [9]

Market Overview - The three major U.S. indexes, Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average, experienced declines of 3.24%, 2.3%, and 3.41% respectively in the holiday-shortened trading week, driven by fears of economic slowdown and rising inflation due to trade tensions between the U.S. and China [1] - Consumer sentiment in April dropped to 50.8, the lowest since June 2022, primarily due to inflation concerns [2] - The core Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 0.3%, indicating persistent price pressures, while the PPI for final demand decreased by 0.4% in March [2] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated a need for more clarity before making policy adjustments, suggesting a delay in interest rate cuts, with market expectations leaning towards a rate decrease in December [3] - The ongoing trade war and potential inflation increases are expected to negatively impact job creation and business confidence [3] Zacks Performance and Recommendations - Brookdale Senior Living Inc. (BKD) shares increased by 14.7% since being upgraded to Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) on February 20, contrasting with a 14.2% decrease in the S&P 500 [4] - The Bank of East Asia, Limited (BKEAY) also saw a 3.9% return since its upgrade to Zacks Rank 2 on February 20 [5] - A hypothetical portfolio of Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) stocks returned -3.48% in January 2025, compared to -0.60% for the S&P 500 [5] Zacks Model Portfolio Performance - The Zacks Model Portfolio, consisting of Zacks Rank 1 stocks, has outperformed the S&P 500 index by nearly 13 percentage points since 1988, with an annualized average return of +23.9% compared to +11.3% for the S&P 500 [7] - The Zacks Focus List portfolio returned -2.96% in Q1 2025, outperforming the S&P 500's -4.30% decline [12] - The Earnings Certain Admiral Portfolio (ECAP) returned +3.20% in Q1 2025, significantly better than the S&P 500's -4.30% decline [16] Stock Highlights - Pro-Dex, Inc. (PDEX) shares surged by 68.6% since its Zacks Recommendation upgrade to Outperform on March 4 [8] - Coca-Cola Company (KO) returned 17% over the past 12 weeks, while J. M. Smucker Company (SJM) increased by 12.6% during the same period [18] - Primo Brands Corporation (PRMB) rose by 9% year-to-date, outperforming the S&P 500 index's 10.2% decrease [22]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry but indicates a cautious outlook due to abnormal market conditions and economic forecasts [2][10][16]. Core Insights - The report discusses a "pause" in tariff increases, which has led to significant market movements, but overall tariffs remain historically high, impacting growth forecasts for the US and euro area [3][13][14]. - Economic growth forecasts for the US and euro area are projected at 0.6% for 2025, which is considered low and may lead to above-average risk premiums for investors [3][14]. - The Federal Reserve is not expected to cut rates in 2025, contrary to market expectations, while the European Central Bank and Bank of England are anticipated to implement rate cuts [4][19][21]. Summary by Sections Global Credit Overview - Recent market movements are characterized as abnormal and more typical of bear markets, indicating a wider range of potential outcomes [9][10]. - Heavy outflows from credit markets have been noted, with significant amounts withdrawn from investment-grade (IG) and high-yield (HY) funds [33]. Economic Forecasts - The report highlights that tariffs are expected to contribute to core PCE inflation exceeding 3.5% in the second half of 2025, complicating the Fed's ability to cut rates [4][21]. - The report emphasizes that the market may be overly optimistic regarding the timing of Fed rate cuts, with expectations of approximately 75 basis points of cuts in 2025 not aligning with the economists' views [17][18]. Sector-Specific Insights - In the retail sector, companies are being sensitized to the impact of tariffs, with potential EBITDA reductions and increased leverage expected due to the cumulative tariff rate reaching 104% [45][46][47]. - The Asia credit strategy suggests that credit spreads in the region should widen due to concerns over tariffs and valuations, advising investors to focus on defensive trades [39][41]. Tactical Considerations - Key sentiment indicators remain in a state of fear, which may provide a buffer against further market declines [22][24]. - Upcoming data releases, including retail sales and ECB rate decisions, are expected to influence market dynamics significantly [23].

Core Insights - Citigroup Inc. and Wells Fargo & Company are key players in the U.S. banking sector, facing challenges and opportunities influenced by economic conditions and internal strategies [1][2] - Both banks have experienced stock declines due to market reactions to new tariff implementations, raising investor concerns about economic slowdowns [1] Citigroup's Strategy and Performance - Citigroup is focusing on leaner operations and restructuring its international consumer banking business, exiting 14 markets and completing exits in nine countries [4][5] - The bank aims to free up capital for higher-return segments like wealth management and investment banking [5] - Citigroup is undergoing a significant transformation, including a restructuring that will eliminate 20,000 jobs over two years, with expected expenses lower than $56.4 billion reported in 2023 [9][10] Wells Fargo's Strategy and Performance - Wells Fargo is prioritizing risk management and compliance, making notable strides under CEO Charlie Scharf [6][7] - The bank is optimistic about lifting the asset cap imposed in 2019, which would enhance its lending capabilities [7] - Wells Fargo is balancing cost management with investments in branch upgrades and digital tools, expecting $2.4 billion in gross expense reductions in 2025 [11][13] Capital Distribution - Both Citigroup and Wells Fargo have strong capital distribution programs, reflecting confidence in liquidity and earnings stability [14] - Citigroup raised its quarterly dividend by 6% to 56 cents per share, while Wells Fargo increased its dividend by 14% to 40 cents per share [15] - Citigroup has a $20 billion share repurchase program, while Wells Fargo has a $30 billion program with $7.3 billion remaining for repurchase [18] Economic Influences - The performance of both banks is heavily influenced by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and overall economic growth [19] - The Fed lowered interest rates by 100 basis points in 2024, but economic uncertainty may suppress loan demand, impacting net interest income growth [20][21] Stock Performance and Valuation - In the past six months, Wells Fargo shares gained 5.2%, while Citigroup shares declined by 8.8% [22] - Citigroup's trailing P/E ratio is 7.40X, while Wells Fargo's is 10.13X, both trading at a discount compared to the industry [25] - Wells Fargo's premium valuation reflects high growth expectations and improving profitability [27] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Citigroup's 2025 sales and EPS implies year-over-year increases of 0.2% and 16.5%, respectively [28] - For Wells Fargo, the estimates imply growth of 2.7% in sales and 8.6% in EPS for 2025 [30] Conclusion - Citigroup offers value with a low forward P/E ratio and higher dividend yield but faces execution risks amid its transformation [34] - Wells Fargo is better positioned for consistent returns due to its balanced strategy and rising profitability expectations, especially with the potential removal of the asset cap [35][36]