Summary of Key Points from the Global Economic Briefing Industry or Company Involved - The document pertains to global economic analysis and insights provided by Morgan Stanley, focusing on various regions including the US, Euro area, Japan, China, India, and others. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **US Economic Outlook** - The US GDP growth for 2Q25 was revised up to 3.3% quarter-over-quarter, driven by stronger private consumption and business investment [38] - Domestic demand in the US averaged 1.9% quarter-over-quarter SAAR in the first half of the year, down from 3.2% in the second half of 2024 [18] - Employment trends have sharply decelerated, with job growth dropping from an average of 123k (Jan-Apr) to just 27k (May-Aug) [38] - The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate rate cuts starting in September, with a baseline forecast of a 25 basis point cut [22][38] 2. **Euro Area Economic Stability** - Euro area GDP growth was stable in the first half of the year, with a forecast of 0.1% growth in 3Q25 [40] - The ECB is expected to cut rates in December and March, with a terminal rate of 1.5% [39][40] 3. **Japan's Economic Focus** - Japan's economy continues to show nominal growth, with 2Q GDP rising by 1.0% quarter-over-quarter [38] - The political situation following the Prime Minister's resignation has raised questions about future fiscal policy [19] 4. **China's Growth and Inflation** - China's GDP growth surprised to the upside in the first half of the year, but a slowdown is expected in the second half due to reduced stimulus [20] - Persistent PPI deflation continues to weigh on CPI, with expectations of a gradual recovery in inflation [20][45] 5. **India's Economic Resilience** - Domestic demand and supportive monetary and fiscal policies are expected to offset a weaker external outlook [21][46] - India's GDP growth for 2Q25 was reported at 7.8% year-over-year, with supportive government spending contributing to growth [46] 6. **Global Tariff Dynamics** - Legal challenges have brought tariffs back into focus, affecting sector-specific tariffs and global supply chain realignment [25] - The effective tariff rate on US imports rose to 9.6% in July, indicating a gradual convergence towards expected ranges [32] Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content 1. **Labor Market Concerns** - The US labor market shows signs of a downshift in hiring, with tight immigration policies curbing labor supply growth [38] - The August employment report indicates risks around the outlook for rate cuts, with potential for cuts at consecutive meetings [23] 2. **Inflation Trends** - Core PCE inflation in the US is trending higher, suggesting a reacceleration of inflation from last year [38] - In the Euro area, inflation is expected to undershoot the ECB's target in 2026, with services inflation cooling [39] 3. **Monetary Policy Adjustments** - The BoE is expected to cut rates further in November and December, with a terminal rate of 2.75% [43] - The BoJ is likely to maintain its policy rate through 2026, despite political distractions [19] 4. **Global Economic Interdependencies** - The interconnectedness of global economies is highlighted, with trade dynamics and tariff impacts influencing growth trajectories across regions [25][26] This summary encapsulates the key insights and arguments presented in the Global Economic Briefing, providing a comprehensive overview of the current economic landscape across various regions.

Joining us right now is our special guest, David Rubenstein. He's co-founder and co-chairman of the Carile Group. He's also the owner of the Baltimore Orioles.And David, there are so many directions we could go with you. I was thinking about starting with inflation because we have a consumer price index coming up in a about an hour and a half. But you sat down and started talking about some numbers that you looked back.We're celebrating our 30th anniversary and you looked back 30 years ago. Uh what struck y ...

>> IT IS 5:00 A. M. IN NEW YORK CITY.I AM VONNIE QUINN WITH YOUR BLOOMBERG BRIEF. COUNTDOWN TO CPI, STOCKS STUDY AHEAD OF THE KEY INFLATION DATA PRINT. THREE RATE CUTS ALMOST FULLY PRICED IN.FROM TARIFF IMPACTS TO COMPETITION WITH CHINA, DO NOT MISS OUR INTERVIEW WITH UBS CEO. A MANHUNT UNDERWAY UNDER THE -- AFTER THE FBI RELEASES SOMEONE WHO HAD BEEN A PURSE -- A PERSON OF INTEREST IN THE KILLING. LET US GET TO THE MARKETS.FUTURES ARE HIGHER AFTER ORACLE SURGED 36%. ORACLE NOT IN THE NASDAQ OR THE NASDAQ 1 ...

Investors awaiting new CPI data at 8:30 a. m. Eastern time.Forecasters are expecting a month- over-month gain of 0.3%. And joining us right now on the economy and the markets is Peter Orzac. He's the CEO of Lazard. He was the director of the Office of Management and Budget under President Obama.And and Peter, thank you for being with us today. Um, let's just talk broadly about the economy after we saw the much cooler than anticipated uh inflation numbers yesterday with PPI. Where do you think the economy st ...

Trade Policy & Competitive Landscape - Mexico's imposition of steep tariffs on Asian imports creates a disadvantage for South Korean automakers [1] - The absence of a free trade agreement between South Korea and Mexico puts South Korean carmakers at a disadvantage compared to Japanese rivals [1]

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Rising tariffs in the United States are prompting retailers to adjust import strategies as container cargo volumes at major ports are expected to decline for the rest of the year. The latest Global Port Tracker report from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates highlights the ongoing impact of trade policy on retail supply chains. Ports handled 2.36 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEU) in July, marking a 20.1% increase from June and a 1.8% rise compared with July 2024. Retailer ...

Core Viewpoint - Walmart's recent earnings report indicates a decline in performance, with adjusted earnings per share falling short of expectations, raising concerns about future price increases and potential challenges for the company and its shareholders [3][5][10]. Financial Performance - Walmart reported fiscal Q2 revenue of $177.4 billion, exceeding analysts' expectations of $176.2 billion, but adjusted earnings per share were $0.68, below the projected $0.74 [5]. - The company's sales increased by approximately 5% year over year, while operating income declined by over 8% to $7.3 billion [8]. Tariff Impact - The impact of tariffs on Walmart's customers has been described as "somewhat muted," but rising costs are expected to continue affecting the company [6][7]. - CEO Doug McMillon acknowledged that costs are increasing weekly as inventory is replenished at post-tariff price levels, which may lead to further price hikes [7]. Stock Valuation and Market Position - Walmart's stock is trading at a high price-to-earnings multiple of 38, compared to the S&P 500 average of 25, indicating elevated investor expectations [9]. - The stock has nearly doubled since 2024, driven by a shift towards safe-haven investments amid macroeconomic concerns [9]. Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term challenges, Walmart is viewed as a solid long-term investment due to its strong fundamentals and growth opportunities in e-commerce and advertising [10][12]. - However, potential price hikes could lead to reduced discretionary spending by customers, impacting the company's performance in the near term [11].

Mexico’s plan to levy tariffs of up to 50% on vehicles from China may have a limited impact on the Asian nation’s auto manufacturers https://t.co/5jP1Q8F1HL ...

Market Overview - The S&P 500 reached a record high of 6,543.78, rising 0.3% on September 10, 2025, while the Nasdaq Composite also hit intraday record highs at 21,952.25, increasing by 0.1% [2] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced a decline of 220.42 points (0.5%) on the same day, despite a positive inflation report, indicating a complex interaction between economic fundamentals and political factors [2] Tariff Impacts - President Trump announced substantial tariffs on imported semiconductors, potentially reaching rates as high as 100%, causing market unease [3] - Apple is expected to incur over $1 billion in tariff costs this fiscal quarter but opted to maintain its pricing, leading to a 1.6% drop in its shares [4] - The ending of the "de minimis exemption" has resulted in unexpected tariffs for NYC consumers, highlighting the broader economic implications of tariff policies [5] Company-Specific Developments - Trump Media & Technology Group filed for five new "America First"-themed ETFs, which saw DJT shares rise slightly before dipping, reflecting market interest in politically branded financial products [6][7] - Mixed Martial Arts Group Limited's stock surged 200% after Donald Trump Jr. joined as a strategic advisor, demonstrating the significant influence of Trump's name on market performance [8] Policy and Market Dynamics - Trump's recent memorandum on prescription drug transparency aims to enforce advertising regulations, which historically has led to declines in pharmaceutical stocks [9] - The ongoing "Trump Tariff Case" in the Supreme Court adds further uncertainty to the trade environment, complicating long-term business planning [10] Economic Indicators - Despite record highs in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, analysts note that job growth has slowed due to tariff-related uncertainties, with predictions indicating a decrease in average incomes for most Americans by 2027 [11] - The market's volatility is characterized by rapid reactions to Trump's statements and policies, creating a challenging environment for investors [12]