Core Viewpoint - International oil prices collectively rose on August 21, with U.S. crude oil and Brent crude oil experiencing significant increases in their main contracts [1] Group 1 - U.S. crude oil main contract increased by 1.23%, reaching $63.48 per barrel [1] - Brent crude oil main contract rose by 1.14%, reaching $67.60 per barrel [1]

Core Viewpoint - International oil prices increased on the 20th, indicating a positive trend in the oil market [1] Price Movements - As of the close on the 20th, the price of light crude oil futures for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose by $0.86, settling at $63.21 per barrel, representing a 1.38% increase [1] - The price of Brent crude oil futures for October delivery increased by $1.05, closing at $66.84 per barrel, which is a 1.60% rise [1]

Core Viewpoint - International oil prices experienced a decline on the 19th, with significant drops in both WTI and Brent crude oil futures [1] Group 1 - As of the close on the 19th, the price of light crude oil futures for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by $1.07, settling at $62.35 per barrel, representing a decrease of 1.69% [1] - The price of Brent crude oil futures for October delivery on the London market decreased by $0.81, closing at $65.79 per barrel, with a decline of 1.22% [1]

Group 1 - The meeting between US President Trump and Russian President Putin in Alaska is seen as symbolically significant, aiming to break Russia's international isolation and potentially pave the way for easing sanctions if progress is made [3] - Trump is focusing on achieving a ceasefire and is willing to discuss territorial concessions regarding Ukraine, although no agreements were reached during the meeting [3][5] - European leaders are supporting Ukrainian President Zelensky, who is under pressure from the US to agree to a quick peace deal involving territorial concessions [5] Group 2 - The international oil market is reacting to the uncertainty surrounding the US-Russia meeting, with oil prices experiencing fluctuations due to concerns over trade policies and OPEC+ production increases [7][9] - If negotiations for a peace agreement between the US and Russia progress, there could be a potential easing of sanctions on Russian oil exports, which may increase market supply expectations [9] - Current downward risks for the oil market include the continuation of US-Russia negotiations, global economic slowdown, and OPEC+ gradually increasing production [9]

Core Viewpoint - The prices of light crude oil and Brent crude oil futures have increased, indicating a positive trend in the oil market [1] Price Movements - As of the close of trading, the price of light crude oil futures for September delivery rose by 62 cents, settling at $63.42 per barrel, reflecting an increase of 0.99% [1] - The price of Brent crude oil futures for October delivery increased by 75 cents, closing at $66.60 per barrel, which represents a rise of 1.14% [1]

Core Viewpoint - International oil prices increased, with both WTI and Brent crude oil contracts rising by 0.97% on August 18 [1] Group 1 - WTI crude oil main contract closed at $62.58 per barrel [1] - Brent crude oil main contract closed at $66.49 per barrel [1]

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，8月14日，国际油价走高，美油主力合约收涨2.04%，报63.93美元/桶；布伦特原油主力合 约涨1.87%，报66.86美元/桶。 ...

截至当天收盘，纽约商品交易所9月交货的轻质原油期货价格上涨8美分，收于每桶63.96美元，涨幅为 0.13%；10月交货的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格上涨4美分，收于每桶66.63美元，涨幅为0.06%。 国际油价11日微涨。 ...

Market Performance - On August 11, US stock indices experienced slight declines, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling by 0.45%, the S&P 500 down by 0.25%, and the Nasdaq decreasing by 0.3% [1][3]. - Major technology stocks mostly declined, with the US Tech Giants Index dropping by 0.22%. Notable individual stock movements included Apple down over 0.8%, while Tesla rose over 2.8% for a four-day increase [5]. Commodity Market - International precious metal futures generally fell, with COMEX gold futures main contract dropping by 2.8% to $3393.7 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures down by 2.33% to $37.645 per ounce [2][6]. - Oil prices saw a slight increase, with light crude oil futures for September rising by 8 cents to $63.96 per barrel, a 0.13% increase, and Brent crude oil for October up by 4 cents to $66.63 per barrel, a 0.06% increase [6]. Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 0.29%, with notable declines in popular Chinese stocks such as QuantumScape and Ascentage Pharma, which dropped over 4%. However, Xpeng Motors saw an increase of nearly 6% [6]. Geopolitical Developments - President Trump announced a "test meeting" with President Putin scheduled for August 15 in Alaska, suggesting that the outcome could be either positive or negative, but expressing hope for constructive dialogue [2][7]. - Trump indicated that he hopes to arrange a meeting between Ukrainian President Zelensky and Putin following the Alaska meeting, with the possibility of a trilateral meeting involving the US, Russia, and Ukraine [7][8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The total inventory pressure of domestic PE is not significant, with production enterprise inventory increasing by 19.09% to 515,400 tons and social inventory decreasing by 1.22% to 568,700 tons [2]. - The next round of intensive maintenance of domestic PE is expected to start in mid - August. This week, the restart of devices such as Yanchang Zhongmei and Wanhua Chemical is expected to lead to a month - on - month increase in production and capacity utilization [2]. - Affected by the leap June, the demand for domestic shed films is postponed, lengthening the off - season cycle of the downstream. Food and daily chemical packaging films have sporadic order accumulations, mainly for rigid demand [2]. - In terms of cost, due to the continuous impact of OPEC+ production increase, the remaining demand in the US fuel peak season, and the upcoming meeting between the US and Russian presidents, international oil prices are expected to fluctuate [2]. - The L2509 contract is expected to fluctuate slightly in the range of 7,200 - 7,400 yuan/ton in the short term, and the L2601 contract still faces pressure in the future, with technical attention paid to the support near 7,200 yuan/ton [2]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures prices: The closing price of the main polyethylene futures contract is 7,314 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan; the 1 - month contract is 7,364 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the 5 - month contract is 7,367 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan; the 9 - month contract is 7,314 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan [2]. - Trading volume and open interest: The trading volume is 175,650 lots, up 17,899 lots; the open interest is 252,486 lots, down 18,026 lots [2]. - Spread and position: The 9 - 1 contract spread is - 50 yuan, up 4 yuan. The long position of the top 20 futures holders is 165,386 lots, down 4,538 lots; the short position is 167,158 lots, down 14,907 lots; the net long position is - 1,772 lots, up 10,369 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - LLDPE prices: The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China is 7,284.78 yuan/ton, up 3.91 yuan; in East China, it is 7,376.43 yuan/ton, up 2.62 yuan [2]. - Basis: The basis is - 29.22 yuan, down 20.09 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Naphtha prices: The FOB middle price of naphtha in Singapore is 61.16 US dollars/barrel, down 0.06 US dollars; the CFR middle price of naphtha in Japan is 570.5 US dollars/ton, down 0.5 US dollars [2]. - Ethylene prices: The CFR middle price of ethylene in Southeast Asia is 831 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Northeast Asia, it is 821 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - PE production and utilization rate: From August 1st to 7th, the total polyethylene production in China was 660,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.89%; the capacity utilization rate of polyethylene production enterprises was 85.72%, a month - on - month increase of 3.75 percentage points. The current national petrochemical PE operating rate is 84.08%, up 2.99 percentage points [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - PE downstream operating rates: The operating rate of polyethylene packaging films is 49.3%, up 0.6 percentage points; for pipes, it is 29%, up 0.33 percentage points; for agricultural films, it is 13.07%, up 0.44 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene is 12.21%, up 0.05 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 12.23%, down 0.28 percentage points [2]. - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money put options and at - the - money call options of polyethylene is 12.55%, down 0.06 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Production and demand: From August 1st to 7th, the average operating rate of China's polyethylene downstream products increased by 0.4% compared with the previous period, among which the operating rate of agricultural films increased by 0.4% [2]. - Inventory: As of August 6th, the inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 515,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19.09%; as of August 8th, the social inventory of polyethylene was 568,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.22% [2].