Group 1 - Trump criticizes Fed Chair Powell, calling him "too late" and incompetent, while claiming that inflation is nearly nonexistent and costs are decreasing [1][4][9] - The Federal Reserve maintains the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.5%, with Powell emphasizing that Trump's demands for rate cuts will not influence the Fed's decisions [3][6] - Powell warns that ongoing tariffs could lead to rising inflation, economic slowdown, and increased unemployment, highlighting the uncertainty in the current economic environment [3][7] Group 2 - Trump's ongoing pressure for rate cuts reflects his belief that lower rates are essential for economic growth, contrasting with Powell's cautious approach [4][9] - The U.S. economy faces risks of simultaneous inflation and economic slowdown, complicating the Fed's policy decisions [7] - Recent tariffs imposed by Trump are believed to exacerbate recession risks, with public sentiment turning negative regarding job prospects and the impact of tariffs on daily expenses [7][9]

上个月，美国CPI数据超预期降温。美国3月CPI同比增长2.4%，增幅创7个月新低，且低于预期值2.5% 和前值2.8%；美国3月核心CPI同比增长2.8%，增幅创2021年3月以来最低，且低于预期值3%和前值 3.1%。 目前，据CME"美联储观察"统计，美联储6月维持利率不变的概率为82.7%，降息25个基点的概率为 17.3%。美联储7月维持利率不变的概率为40.8%，累计降息25个基点的概率为50.7%，累计降息50个基 点的概率为8.7%。 北京时间周一，离岸人民币盘中突然拉升。美元对离岸人民币汇率一度跌逾200点，随后跌幅有所收 窄，现报7.2268。 | < V | | 美元兑离岸人民币 | | ા છે વ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | USDCNH.FX | | | | | | 7.22680 | 前未 | 7.24054 | 今开 | 7.22410 | | -0.01374 -0.19% | 卖品 | 7.22796 | 买入 | 7.22564 | | 最高 7.22766 今年来 | | -1.20% | 5分钟 | 0.75% | | 最低 ...

美联储6月维持利率不变的概率为82.7% 金十数据5月12日讯，据CME"美联储观察"： 美联储6月维持利率不变的概率为82.7%，降息25个基点的概率为17.3%。美联储7 月维持利率不变的概率为40.8%，累计降息25个基点的概率为50.7%，累计降息50个基点的概率为8.7%。 往后三次议息会议可能性预测 EXPECTATIONS OF NEXT THREE FOMC MEETINGS | 预测利率 | 2025.06.19 | 2025.07.31 | 2025.09.18 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3.25%-3.50% | | | 0.0% | | 3.50%-3.75% | | 0.0% | 5.7% | | 3.75%-4.00% | 0.0% | 8.7% | 36.1% | | 4.00%-4.25% | 17.3% | 50.4% | 44.1% | | 4.25%-4.50%(当前利率) | 82.7% | 40.8% | 14.0% | @ JIN10.COM 金十数据 | 一个交易工具 ...

金十数据5月8日讯，据CME"美联储观察"： 美联储6月维持利率不变的概率为80.2%，降息25个基点的概率为19.8%，降息50个 基点的概率为0%。美联储7月维持利率不变的概率为28%，累计降息25个基点的概率为59.1%，累计降息50个基点的概率为 12.9%，累计降息75个基点的概率为0%。 美联储6月维持利率不变的概率为80.2% | 预测利率 | 2025.06.19 | 2025.07.31 | 2025.09.18 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3.25%-3.50% | | | 0.0% | | 3.50%-3.75% | | 0.0% | 10.4% | | 3.75%-4.00% | 0.0% | 12.9% | 50.1% | | 4.00%-4.25% | 19.8% | 59.1% | 34.1% | | 4.25%-4.50%(当前利率) | 80.2% | 28.0% | 5.5% | 订阅美联储利率观测器 +订阅 ...

美联储6月维持利率不变的概率为76.1% 金十数据5月8日讯，据CME"美联储观察"： 美联储6月维持利率不变的概率为76.1%（此前为71.6%）， 降息25个基点的概率为22.9%（此前为27.8%），降息50个基点的概率为1%（此前为0.6%）。美联储7 月维持利率不变的概率为27.3%，累计降息25个基点的概率为57%，累计降息50个基点的概率为15%， 累计降息75个基点的概率为0.6%， ...

EXPECTATIONS OF NEXT THREE FOMC MEETINGS | 预测利率 | 2025.05.8 | 2025.06.19 | 2025.07.31 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3.50%-3.75% | | | 0.4% | | 3.75%-4.00% | | 0.6% | 17.4% | | 4.00%-4.25% | 2.3% | 27.8% | 55.0% | | 4.25%-4.50%(当前利率) | 97.7% | 71.6% | 27.2% | 金十数据5月8日讯，据CME"美联储观察"： 美联储本次维持利率不变的概率为97.3%，降息25个基点的概率为2.3%。美联储到6 月维持利率不变的概率为71.6%，累计降息25个基点的概率为27.8%，累计降息50个基点的概率为0.6%。 往后三次议息会议可能性预测 美联储本次维持利率不变的概率为97.7% @ JIN10.COM 金十数据 | 一个交易工具 ...

Core Viewpoint - The conflicting economic signals, such as strong employment data and weak consumer confidence, complicate the decision-making process for the Federal Reserve, according to Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser [1] Economic Signals - Strong employment data contrasts with weak consumer confidence, creating a challenging environment for Federal Reserve policymakers [1] - Fraser emphasizes the disconnect between hard data and soft data, making it difficult for the Federal Reserve to navigate current economic conditions [1] Tariff Policy Impact - The outcome of the Trump administration's tariff policy will be crucial in assessing its impact on the economy [1] - Fraser notes that a 10% tariff would be more manageable, while tariffs of 25% or higher would have a significantly greater substantive impact [1]

非农数据公布后，美联储5月维持利率不变的概率升至近100% 金十数据5月2日讯，据CME"美联储观察"： 美联储5月维持利率不变的概率为99.4%（公布前为 95.3%），降息25个基点的概率为0.6%。美联储到6月维持利率不变的概率为53.8%，累计降息25个基点 的概率为45.9%，累计降息50个基点的概率为0.3%。 ...

EXPECTATIONS OF NEXT THREE FOMC MEETINGS 美联储5月维持利率不变的概率为93.3% 据CME"美联储观察"： 美联储5月维持利率不变的概率为93.3%，降息25个基点的概率为6.7%。美联储到6月维持利率不变的概 率为41.3%，累计降息25个基点的概率为55.0%，累计降息50个基点的概率为3.7%。 往后三次议息会议可能性预测 | 预测利率 | 2025.05.8 | 2025.06.19 | 2025.07.31 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3.50%-3.75% | | | 3.0% | | 3.75%-4.00% | | 3.7% | 44.5% | | 4.00%-4.25% | 6.7% | 55.0% | 44.1% | | 4.25%-4.50%(当前利率) | 93.3% | 41.3% | 8.4% | @ JIN10.COM 金十数据 | 一个交易工具 ...

PCE数据公布前，美联储5月维持利率不变的概率为94.3% 金十数据4月30日讯，据CME"美联储观察"： 美联储5月维持利率不变的概率为94.3%，降息25个基点的概率为5.7%。美联储到6 月维持利率不变的概率为35.9%，累计降息25个基点的概率为60.5%，累计降息50个基点的概率为3.6%。 往后三次议息会议可能性预测 EXPECTATIONS OF NEXT THREE FOMC MEETINGS | 预测利率 | 2025.05.8 | 2025.06.19 | 2025.07.31 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3.50%-3.75% | | | 3.2% | | 3.75%-4.00% | | 3.6% | 54.2% | | 4.00%-4.25% | 5.7% | 60.5% | 38.7% | | 4.25%-4.50%(当前利率) | 94.3% | 35.9% | 4.0% | @ JIN10.COM 金十数据 | 一个交易工具 ...