中航证券首席经济学家董忠云对记者表示，新任理事米兰投下唯一反对票，主张更激进地降息50个基 点，释放的信号可从双重维度解读。 其一，鉴于其白宫经济顾问委员会主席的身份，且本次就任美联 储理事历经特朗普政府多轮运作方获参议院确认，米兰此次立场实质上是白宫对货币当局的一次公 开"掣肘"。该票不仅表达了对当前降息幅度与宽松节奏的直接不满，更以"异议"形式将政治诉求嵌入利 率决策程序，其政治象征意义远超对实际利率路径的影响。 其二，11比1的压倒性表决结果反过来凸显 美联储在高压环境下的内部"凝聚力"。异议虽存，共识仍固，表明鲍威尔已基本实现票委层面的战略统 合，短期内抵御住了来自白宫的显性政治干预，维系了美联储货币决策的独立性与公信力。 然而，米 兰的激进主张虽未能撼动本次利率决定，却为后续博弈埋下伏笔。（21财经） 来源：滚动播报 ...

Stocks were muted on Wednesday as Wall Street braced for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and policy outlook later in the day. The S&P 500 inched up 0.1%, while the Nasdaq Composite slippe... ...

Core Viewpoint - Treasurys and gold are experiencing a rally as market anxiety increases ahead of the Federal Reserve's rate decision on Wednesday [1] Group 1 - The rally in Treasurys indicates a flight to safety among investors amid rising uncertainty [1] - Gold prices are also increasing, reflecting a similar trend of investors seeking safe-haven assets [1]

Core Insights - The S&P 500 is trading at an all-time high despite recent economic data indicating a slowdown in the labor market [1] - The U.S. added only 22,000 jobs in August, significantly below the expected 75,000, with a downward revision of 27,000 jobs in the prior two months [2] - Job growth has averaged less than 30,000 over the last four months, well below the healthy threshold of 100,000 job gains per month [2] Economic Implications - The weak jobs report is a major indicator of economic health and influences the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [4] - A weak jobs report increases the likelihood of a rate cut at the Fed's next meeting on September 16-17, as the central bank aims to stimulate growth in a weak economy [4][5] - Lower interest rates are generally favorable for stocks, as they facilitate borrowing and investment, and make stocks more attractive compared to bonds [5] Market Reactions - Initial positive reactions in stock futures to the jobs report were followed by declines in regular trading, with the S&P 500 down 0.5% [6] - The small-cap Russell 2000 index showed some resilience, trading higher for part of the session, indicating sensitivity to interest rate changes [6] - The weak employment report raises concerns about an increased risk of recession [7]

Labor Market Overview - The labor market showed further degradation in August, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, exceeding economist forecasts and July's rate of 4.2% [1][2] - The U.S. added only 22,000 nonfarm jobs in August, significantly below the analyst projections of 80,000 and a sharp decline from the revised 79,000 jobs added in July [2][5] - Jobless claims increased to 237,000 last week, marking the highest level since June, indicating a slowdown in labor market growth [2] Federal Reserve Implications - Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that interest rates, currently between 4.25% and 4.5%, could be cut if unemployment remains steady [3] - Analysts from Oxford Economics stated that August's jobs report would need to be significantly stronger than expected to prevent the Fed from cutting rates, with a 99.1% probability of at least a quarter-point reduction after the next meeting on September 17 [3] Economic Context - The jobs report is viewed as a critical indicator of labor market health, especially after an average addition of 123,000 jobs from January to April [5] - For the first time since April 2021, the number of unemployed individuals (7.2 million) slightly exceeds job openings (7.18 million), highlighting a shift in the labor market dynamics [5] - The upcoming inflation data release on September 11 is anticipated to be closely monitored by the Fed, with expectations of consumer prices rising to 3.1% in August from 2.7% in July [4]

Group 1 - A global government bond sell-off is occurring, pushing the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield towards the psychological 5% level [1][7] - On Tuesday, the sell-off affected bond markets across the Atlantic, with yields rising in the U.S., U.K., Italy, and France [1][7] - The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield increased by 5.3 basis points to 4.97%, while the 10-year yield rose by 4.9 basis points to 4.276% [1] Group 2 - The market turmoil is attributed to a surge in corporate bond supply, concerns over government fiscal conditions, and seasonal liquidity tightening [4][9] - September is traditionally unfavorable for long bond holders, with a significant influx of corporate bond issuances expected [4][6] - Wall Street predicts that U.S. investment-grade corporate bond issuance could reach $150 billion to $180 billion this month, potentially exceeding last year's $172.5 billion [6] Group 3 - The sell-off is not limited to the U.S.; other developed economies like the U.K., Italy, and France are also experiencing rising yields [7][8] - The 30-year U.K. government bond yield reached its highest level since 1998, while French yields also increased [8] Group 4 - Historical data indicates that September has been the worst month for government bonds with maturities over 10 years, showing a median decline of 2% [10] - Technical liquidity factors and historical trends contribute to the negative sentiment in the bond market during September [10] Group 5 - Market focus is shifting to the upcoming U.S. employment report, which will influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [11] - Traders anticipate a 92% chance of a rate cut in September, with the employment report being a critical variable for market direction [11]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The current price of spot gold is around $3415.22 per ounce, having reached a five-week high due to a weaker dollar and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [2][4] - Gold prices increased by 0.6% to $3416.14 per ounce, marking the highest level since July 23, driven by concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve [2] - The market is currently in a wide-ranging oscillation phase, with a potential shift towards a trend formation as the oscillation cycle extends [2][4] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - Brent crude oil futures fell by 0.46% to $67.74 per barrel, while WTI crude oil dropped by 0.56% to $63.79 per barrel, ending the previous day's gains [5] - U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 2.4 million barrels, exceeding market expectations, but concerns about seasonal demand decline post-Labor Day are prevalent [5] - The oil market is expected to remain in a $60-$65 per barrel range, influenced by Federal Reserve interest rate decisions and India's energy policies [5][6] Group 3: Technical Analysis - For gold, the short-term trading strategy suggests focusing on buying on dips and selling on rebounds, with key resistance at $3430-$3440 and support at $3400-$3390 [4] - WTI crude oil shows a potential support level around $63, with resistance at $65-$66; a breakout above $66 could lead to a rise towards $68 [6] - The overall market sentiment for both gold and oil indicates a cautious approach, emphasizing the importance of risk management in trading strategies [6][7]

Group 1 - The discussion within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate policy is becoming clearer, with Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin indicating that any adjustments to rates may be moderate due to limited expected changes in economic activity for the remainder of the year [1][3] - Barkin noted that if the economy continues to show mild fluctuations, the corresponding adjustments to interest rate policy will also be small, emphasizing that decisions will depend on future economic data [3][6] - The market widely anticipates that the Federal Reserve will initiate rate cuts in the September meeting, leading to in-depth discussions about the policy path for the remaining two meetings of the year [5][8] Group 2 - Barkin's cautious stance reflects the data-dependent principle that Fed policymakers adhere to when making decisions, suggesting a gradual approach to rate adjustments if economic data remains stable [6][8] - The current U.S. economy is at a delicate moment, with a relatively strong labor market showing signs of slowing, and inflation gradually approaching the Fed's 2% target, but still with uncertainties [8] - Market participants are closely monitoring upcoming key economic data, particularly employment and inflation indicators, which will provide critical insights for the Fed's decision-making in September [8]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices are currently trading around $3400.47 per ounce, showing a slight upward trend amid geopolitical risks and uncertainty regarding Federal Reserve policies [2] - The upcoming U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data is crucial, with expectations of a 2.6% increase for July, which could influence market perceptions of inflation and the Fed's interest rate decisions [2] - Technical analysis indicates a bullish trend for gold, with key resistance at $3400 and support at $3365, suggesting a potential for further upward movement if support levels hold [3][5] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - Brent crude oil prices have decreased by 0.46% to $67.74 per barrel, while WTI crude oil has fallen by 0.56% to $63.79 per barrel, ending a previous upward trend [6] - U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 2.4 million barrels, exceeding market expectations, but concerns about seasonal demand decline post-Labor Day are limiting price increases [6] - Technical indicators suggest that WTI crude oil is experiencing a range-bound market, with support at $63 and resistance between $65 and $66, indicating a wait-and-see approach for further market direction [7]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's latest meeting minutes reveal internal divisions and complexities regarding the economic outlook, with a notable debate on interest rate cuts [2][3] - Only two decision-makers, Bowman and Waller, supported a 25 basis point rate cut, highlighting concerns over potential labor market weaknesses [2][3] - The majority of decision-makers prefer to maintain the federal funds rate in the 4.25%-4.50% range, believing it is suitable for the current economic conditions [2][3] Group 2 - Recent employment data supports Bowman and Waller's concerns, showing July job additions significantly below market expectations and an unexpected rise in the unemployment rate [3] - The labor force participation rate has dropped to its lowest level since the end of 2022, and revisions to May and June job data indicate a reduction of over 250,000 jobs [3] - This historical data revision challenges the optimistic market outlook regarding the strength of the labor market and complicates the Federal Reserve's economic forecasts [3] Group 3 - Silver prices are experiencing slight declines, currently reported at $37.82 per ounce, with fluctuations between $37.77 and $37.97 [1] - Technical analysis indicates that silver is forming a symmetrical triangle, with potential upward movement if it breaks above the 100-period moving average [4] - A confirmed breakout above the triangle could target levels of $38.20 and $38.74, while failure to clear the 100-period moving average may lead to bearish trends [4]