Market Overview - The U.S. stock market opened with mixed results, with the Nasdaq up by 0.11%, while the S&P 500 and Dow were down by 0.05% and 0.13% respectively, and the Russell 2000 saw a decline of 0.36% [3][7] - Stocks are looking to continue a week-long rally, supported by economic data indicating a likely 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming policy meeting [8] Consumer Sentiment - The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for September came in at 55.4, down from 58.2 the previous month, indicating a decline in consumer confidence [2] - Inflation expectations have risen, while future expectations have significantly dipped, despite a slight increase in current conditions [2] Economic Data and Earnings - The only major economic report for the day is the Preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment data, expected to show little change month-over-month [5] - JinkoSolar (JKS) is the only notable earnings report scheduled for today, with a market cap exceeding $1 billion [5] IPOs - Two significant IPOs are set for today: Gemini Space Station (GEMI), a crypto exchange, and Via Transportation (VIA), a public transit contractor [4]

TRENDING: America's Most Trusted Financial Companies Oracle (ORCL) skyrocketed on a huge cloud backlog, giving a lift to AI stocks broadly. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) sales and a huge Nebius (NBIS) contract with Microsoft (MSFT) also bolstered AI optimism. Inflation reports and other economic data reinforced expectations of a quarter-point Fed rate cut next week. Apple (AAPL) fell solidly as its iPhone 17 event held few surprises.… Related news 9/12/2025The Dow Jones index fell Friday ahead of a key inflati ...

Economic Overview - The service sector is driving a 0.4% topline growth, indicating a stronger-than-expected performance in this area [2][4] - Inflation in the service sector appears to be sticky and potentially stubborn, complicating the Federal Reserve's efforts to return to a 2% inflation target [4][10] - The recent jobless claims reached 263,000, the highest since 2021, suggesting a weakening labor market [10] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points next week, but this decision is influenced by rising inflation and downside risks to employment [8][13] - There is a conflict in the Fed's mandates, as inflation remains elevated while employment data shows signs of weakness [9][16] - The Fed funds futures market anticipates a sub-3% rate by the end of next year, which may be overly optimistic given current inflation levels [14][30] Inflation Dynamics - Inflation remains elevated, with specific increases noted in food prices and shelter, which are impacting lower-income Americans disproportionately [18][22] - The food at home price index increased by 6.1%, while the shelter index rose by 0.4%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [18] - Apparel prices also saw a 0.5% increase, suggesting that tariffs may be influencing these costs [20] Market Sentiment and Consumer Behavior - Consumer sentiment has shown some improvement, but there remains a general pessimism regarding job prospects and wage growth [25][26] - The economic environment is characterized by a K-shaped recovery, where wealth inequality is evident, impacting policy decisions [19][39] - The Fed's credibility is under scrutiny, particularly regarding its ability to manage inflation expectations while navigating political pressures [42][43] Interest Rates and Treasury Yields - Long-term yields, such as the 10-year Treasury yield, are not expected to fall significantly due to persistent inflation and fiscal concerns [29][30] - Mortgage rates are unlikely to decrease much further, as they are influenced more by long-term yields than by the Fed's short-term rate cuts [33][34] - The yield curve is steepening, indicating that investors are becoming more cautious about the Fed's independence and its implications for monetary policy [37][38]

Economic Indicators - Today's consumer price index (CPI) report is crucial for Federal Reserve's future rate cut projections, with a cooler CPI potentially leading to more aggressive rate cuts [1] - Economists forecast a 0.3% monthly increase for both overall CPI and core CPI, with headline inflation expected to rise to 2.9% from 2.7% and core CPI inflation holding at 3.1% [3] - Initial jobless claims are expected to dip to 234,000, down from 237,000 the previous week, indicating modest levels historically [4] Market Reactions - S&P 500 futures are pointing modestly higher ahead of the CPI data, following a record closing high for the index [2] - The S&P 500 has climbed 11.1% year-to-date and surged 31.1% from its 52-week low on April 8 [6] Federal Reserve Outlook - Markets are pricing in an 8% chance of a 50-basis-point rate cut next Wednesday, with a quarter-point cut considered certain [5] - There is a 77% probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point rate cut by the end of the October 29 Fed meeting, with odds of 75 basis points in rate cuts over the final three meetings of the year rising to 69% from 46% [5] Company Performance - Oracle's stock continues to rise due to a significant increase in data-center revenue backlog driven by AI, surprising analysts [2] - Nvidia has gained further traction following a strong performance in the previous session, indicating robust interest in AI-related stocks [2]

Inflation Data - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) month-over-month increased by 0.4%, which is a tenth better than expected, while the year-over-year CPI rose to 2.9%, up 210 basis points from last month but in line with expectations [1][2] - Core CPI month-over-month was up 0.3%, remaining unchanged year-over-year at 3.1%, consistent with expectations [2][3] - Key contributors to the monthly increase included airline fares (up 5.9%), used cars and trucks (up 1%), and apparel (up 0.5%), while medical care, recreation, and communications saw declines [3][4] Jobless Claims - First-time jobless claims rose to 263,000, marking the highest level in four years and an increase of 27,000 from the previous month, indicating a concerning trend in the labor market [5][6] - The rise in jobless claims suggests a potential increase in layoffs, which could influence Federal Reserve policy regarding interest rates [6][7] Market Reactions - The combination of inflation data and rising jobless claims has kept the 10-year yield in a tight range, hovering just above 4% [8][9] - The market appears optimistic, with stocks performing well, as the CPI data did not present any major shocks, and the weak labor market data may lead to future rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [10][11]

LIVE Dow Hits New High as Stocks Stage a Broad Rally Last Updated: Updated 38 min ago Fresh signs of a slowing jobs market spurred a rally in the bond market, while a relatively benign inflation report has kept stocks trending higher this morning. The Dow rose 445 points, or 1%, on pace for its fourth record close of the year. The S&P 500 rose 0.5%, while the Nasdaq was up 0.4%. Both indexes closed at their all-time highs yesterday. Meanwhile, Treasuries are also rallying, with the 10-year yield lower by 0. ...

Core Viewpoint - The content emphasizes the importance of conducting personal due diligence and consulting competent advisors before making any financial decisions, particularly in the context of investments and trading [1]. Group 1 - The website provides general news, personal analysis, and third-party content intended for educational and research purposes [1]. - It explicitly states that the information does not constitute any recommendation or advice for investment actions [1]. - Users are advised to perform their own research and consider their financial situation before making decisions [1]. Group 2 - The website includes information about complex financial instruments such as cryptocurrencies and contracts for difference (CFDs), which carry a high risk of losing money [1]. - It encourages users to understand how these instruments work and the associated risks before investing [1].

Group 1 - The dollar index (DXY00) decreased by -0.16% after bond yields fell due to a weaker-than-expected US August PPI report, reinforcing expectations for at least a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed at the upcoming FOMC meeting [1][4] - The dollar's upside is limited by increased expectations for Fed easing through year-end and concerns over Fed independence, which may lead foreign investors to sell dollar assets [2] - The US final-demand August PPI rose by +2.6% year-on-year, down from +3.1% year-on-year in July, which was below the expected +3.3% year-on-year [3] Group 2 - Markets are currently pricing in a 100% chance of a -25 basis point rate cut and a 14% chance of a -50 basis point rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting on September 16-17 [4] - Following the anticipated -25 basis point cut at the September meeting, markets are discounting a 76% chance of a second -25 basis point cut at the October 28-29 meeting, leading to an overall -74 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate by year-end [4] Group 3 - The EUR/USD pair recovered by +0.15% after the dollar's retreat, influenced by the weaker-than-expected US August PPI report [5] - The euro faced initial pressure due to geopolitical risks in Europe, particularly after Poland shot down drones from Russia, which was labeled an "act of aggression" [5]

Core Insights - The producer price index (PPI) in the U.S. experienced an unexpected decline of 0.1% in August, indicating potential easing in inflationary pressures [1] - The upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is anticipated to have significant implications for Federal Reserve policy, particularly regarding interest rate cuts [1][2] - The year-over-year inflation rate has dropped below 3%, which, combined with weak job data, supports the case for rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2] Economic Implications - The muted inflationary pressure reflected in the PPI suggests that the Federal Reserve may proceed with a 25 basis point rate cut in September and continue with similar cuts in subsequent meetings [3] - Market sentiment is leaning towards an easing cycle, influenced by recent economic data, although the immediate impact of the PPI decline on market sentiment remains uncertain [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - The content emphasizes the importance of conducting personal due diligence and consulting competent advisors before making any financial decisions, particularly in the context of investments and trading [1]. Group 1 - The website provides general news, personal analysis, and third-party content intended for educational and research purposes [1]. - It explicitly states that the information does not constitute any recommendation or advice for investment actions [1]. - Users are advised to consider their financial situation and needs before relying on the information provided [1]. Group 2 - The website includes information about complex financial instruments such as cryptocurrencies and contracts for difference (CFDs), which carry a high risk of losing money [1]. - It encourages users to perform their own research and understand the risks involved before investing in any financial instruments [1].