Market Sentiment & Valuation - The market is assessing whether the recent pause is a temporary consolidation or a midsummer stall, similar to the previous year [1] - Some stocks have already priced in positive scenarios like tariff resolutions, interest rate cuts, and AI-driven economic growth, making them vulnerable during earnings season if results are not perfect [3] - Many relatively valued or inexpensive stocks, particularly in cyclical sectors, are pricing in a more bearish outlook and could potentially rally [4] - Overcrowding in momentum stocks requires continuous positive data to sustain their upward trajectory; otherwise, they are susceptible to a self-reinforcing downward cycle due to market leverage [10] - A shift from growth to value and from large-cap to small-cap stocks indicates the market is rebalancing to avoid excessive imbalances [8] Interest Rates & Economic Outlook - Speculation surrounds the Federal Reserve's actions and the necessity of rate cuts, influenced by global announcements such as Canada's interest rate adjustments [5] - Concerns exist that if interest rate relief does not materialize, a correction could occur across all cyclical stocks, regardless of their valuation [6] - The market anticipates Canada's interest rate to be 15%-25% higher [5][6] - The most probable cyclical outlook is one of steady performance, leading to a divergence in performance between expensive and reasonably priced cyclical stocks [7] Cyclical Stocks & Sector Performance - Certain industrial areas, especially within transports, exhibit trough multiples on earnings that have remained relatively stable, but are not at peak levels, anticipating a significant recovery [6] - A major cyclical rebound is unlikely due to the potential for the 10-year Treasury yield to rise, creating a counteracting force that prevents the cycle from becoming too strong [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In the short term, gold prices are expected to fluctuate. The potential extension of the tariff suspension period and the strong US June non - farm data may suppress gold prices, but the uncertainty of tariff policies and China's continuous gold reserve increase may support gold prices. Silver shows better resilience than gold due to improved risk appetite and reduced US economic downside risks, but may be relatively pressured if tariff policies are disturbed [4]. - In the long term, the upward trend of gold remains unchanged due to the ongoing trade war, the possibility of the Fed's interest rate cut, global geopolitical uncertainties, and central banks' gold - buying. It is recommended to allocate gold on dips [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Tracking of Domestic and Foreign Gold and Silver - **15 - point Prices on July 7, 2025**: London gold spot, London silver spot, COMEX gold, and COMEX silver were all 0.00. AU2508 was 769.12 yuan/gram, AG2508 was 8872.00 yuan/kilogram, AU (T + D) and AG (T + D) were 0.00 [3]. - **15 - point Prices on July 4, 2025**: London gold spot was 3342.39 dollars/ounce, London silver spot was 36.85 dollars/ounce, COMEX gold was 3351.90 dollars/ounce, COMEX silver was 37.04 dollars/ounce, AU2508 was 774.88 yuan/gram, AG2508 was 8919.00 yuan/kilogram, AU (T + D) was 772.60 yuan/gram, AG (T + D) was 8901.00 yuan/kilogram [3]. - **Price Changes**: The price of domestic and foreign gold and silver decreased, with the largest decline of 100.0% [3]. 2. Spread/Ratio Tracking - **15 - point Prices on July 7, 2025**: The spread of gold TD - SHFE active price was - 769.12 yuan/gram, the spread of silver TD - SHFE active price was - 8872 yuan/kilogram, etc [3]. - **15 - point Prices on July 4, 2025**: The spread of gold TD - SHFE active price was - 2.28 yuan/gram, the spread of silver TD - SHFE active price was - 18 yuan/kilogram, etc [3]. - **Spread Changes**: The spread of gold TD - SHFE active price increased by 33633.3%, and the spread of silver TD - SHFE active price increased by 49188.9% [3]. 3. Position Data - **July 3, 2025**: Gold ETF - SPDR was 947.66 tons, COMEX gold non - commercial long positions were 256077 contracts, etc [3]. - **July 2, 2025**: Gold ETF - SPDR was 947.66 tons, COMEX gold non - commercial long positions were 260586 contracts, etc [3]. - **Position Changes**: COMEX gold non - commercial long positions decreased by 1.73%, and COMEX gold non - commercial short positions increased by 1.89% [3]. 4. Inventory Data - **July 7, 2025**: SHFE gold inventory was 21456.00 kilograms, SHFE silver inventory was 1330695.00 kilograms, COMEX gold inventory was 36785583 ounces, COMEX silver inventory was 499281076 ounces [3]. - **July 4, 2025**: SHFE gold inventory was 21456 kilograms, SHFE silver inventory was 1339746 kilograms, COMEX gold inventory was 37048200 ounces, COMEX silver inventory was 500183447 ounces [3]. - **Inventory Changes**: SHFE gold inventory remained unchanged, SHFE silver inventory decreased by 0.68%, COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.71%, and COMEX silver inventory decreased by 0.18% [3]. 5. Related Market Data - **July 7, 2025**: The US dollar index was 7.15 [4]. - **July 3, 2025**: The US dollar index was 97.12, the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.88%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.35%, the VIX was 16.38, the S&P 500 was 6279.35, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 67.18, and NYMEX crude oil was 1000 [4]. - **Market Data Changes**: The US dollar index decreased by 0.04%, the 2 - year US Treasury yield increased by 2.65%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield increased by 1.16%, the VIX decreased by 1.56%, the S&P 500 increased by 0.83%, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate decreased by 0.52% [4]. 6. Market News and Analysis - **News**: US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that trade negotiations between the US and the EU were progressing, and major news might be announced in the next two days. Trump and the US Treasury Secretary said that countries would start paying new tariffs on August 1. China's gold reserves at the end of June were reported to be 73.9 million ounces, an increase of 70,000 ounces (about 2.18 tons) from the previous month [4]. - **Analysis**: On July 7, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 0.54% to 771.31 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed down 0.5% to 8872 yuan/kilogram. In the short term, gold prices are expected to fluctuate, and silver prices are relatively resilient. In the long term, the upward trend of gold remains unchanged [4].

While mortgage rates hold steady for another week, affordability does rem remain a pain point in the housing market. Our next guest pointing to a mixed picture in leading indicators for demand. That's Jim Egan, Morgan Stanley, US housing strategist and co-head of securitized products research.Jim's here with me in the studio. Thanks for being here. Thank you for having me.So given that we have not seen that much movement on rates and notably not that much relief on rates, do we remain in this sort of stuck ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook with expectations for policy rate cuts to resume in September, following a stable unemployment rate and job growth that suggests a cooling economy [5][6][9]. Core Insights - The unemployment rate remains stable at 4.2%, with 139k new jobs added, primarily in leisure and hospitality and healthcare sectors, but the labor market is expected to loosen further [5][11][23]. - Economic indicators such as ISM services and manufacturing are below 50, indicating a cooling economy, and the Fed's Beige Book reflects a slowdown in activity and hiring [5][13][15]. - The report anticipates a total of 125 basis points in rate cuts through March of the following year, with the first cut expected in September [5][6][9]. Summary by Sections Employment Data - The unemployment rate increased slightly from 4.187% to 4.244%, and would be around 4.6% if not for a drop in the labor force size [7][23]. - Job growth is slowing, with a significant drop in household survey employment by 696k, indicating potential further increases in the unemployment rate [7][11]. Economic Activity - The report highlights a decline in auto sales to 15.65 million (SAAR) in May, suggesting that previous strong sales were due to front-loading ahead of tariffs [16]. - Retail sales data expected to be released will provide further insights into the economic conditions influenced by trade-related uncertainties [16]. Inflation and Price Trends - A benign monthly inflation reading is projected, with core CPI expected at 0.248% MoM in May, indicating minimal impact from tariffs [18][24]. - Producer prices are expected to rise, with a forecast of a 0.5% MoM increase in core goods PPI, suggesting potential upward pressure on consumer prices in the coming months [19][31]. Federal Reserve Outlook - The report outlines expectations for the Fed to maintain a "wait-and-see" approach, with rate cuts anticipated as economic conditions evolve [5][6][9]. - Fed officials are expected to discuss the implications of the latest employment data at upcoming meetings, with a focus on the labor market's trajectory [6][9].

Group 1 - The article discusses the author's journey into investing, starting in high school in 2011, focusing on REITs, preferred stocks, and high-yield bonds, indicating a long-standing interest in markets and the economy [1] - The author has recently adopted a strategy that combines long stock positions with covered calls and cash secured puts, emphasizing a fundamental long-term investment approach [1] - The author primarily covers REITs and financials on Seeking Alpha, with occasional articles on ETFs and other stocks influenced by macro trade ideas [1]