Core Viewpoint - Gold has experienced a significant increase of 45.2% since November 5, 2024, marking a record for the year following a presidential election, with expectations for continued gains based on historical trends [3][6]. Group 1: Gold Price Performance - Gold's price surge of 45.2% since November 5, 2024, surpasses previous records set during the Obama and Carter administrations, which saw gains of 43.6% and 31.8% respectively [3][6]. - The price of gold attempted to break the $4,000 level, settling at $3,992.90, with 49 new records established in the past 10 months [7]. Group 2: Factors Driving Gold Prices - Anticipation of swift interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025 has contributed to the rally in gold prices, enhancing its appeal compared to other safe-haven assets [4][6]. - Increased demand for gold from global central banks and private investors, particularly in China and Japan, has positively influenced gold prices [4][6]. Group 3: Political Influence - President Trump's criticism of the Federal Reserve and calls for lower interest rates have driven investors towards gold as a safe haven, amid geopolitical uncertainties [5][6]. Group 4: Future Projections - Despite the current surge in gold prices, Capital Economics forecasts a decline to $3,500 per ounce by the end of 2026, suggesting that the current market may be experiencing a bubble [6].

Market Overview - Bitcoin has decreased by 3% to a price of $100,175, marking its lowest level since May, with analysts noting a continuation of "Red October" in the market [1] - Ethereum has experienced a 20% decline over the past month, trading at approximately $3,300, effectively erasing all gains for the year [1] Factors Influencing the Market - Macro analyst Alex Krüger identifies five reasons for the ongoing sell-off, including equities, digital asset treasuries, and the impact of the Federal Open Market Committee [2] - The uncertainty surrounding the US government shutdown and the unresolved US-China trade war are contributing to a negative sentiment for risk assets [2] Sell Pressure Dynamics - The October 10 crash resulted in the liquidation of around $20 billion in leveraged positions, creating significant sell pressure in the crypto market and equities [3] - Wall Street executives have warned that stocks may face a pullback in the coming year due to these market conditions [3] Selling Trends - Bitcoin ETF investors have recently sold nearly $200 million in assets, following approximately $800 million in sales the previous week [5] - Long-term Bitcoin holders have also been selling significantly, with over $1.5 billion transferred from legacy wallets to exchanges like Coinbase, Binance, and Kraken [5] Bitcoin Treasuries - Bitcoin treasuries have not been selling but have also not been purchasing, leading to a lack of support for the market [6] - Firms holding Bitcoin recorded the lowest level of purchases in 2025 during October, indicating a potential liquidity issue [6] Future Outlook - Attention is now focused on the Federal Reserve's December meeting, with the ongoing government shutdown limiting the Fed's ability to make informed decisions regarding interest rates [6]

Group 1: Market Overview - The markets are anticipating oral arguments at the Supreme Court regarding the legality of President Trump's reciprocal tariffs, with a ruling expected by late this year or early 2026 [1] - The S&P 500 Index is down -0.70%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index is down -0.35%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index is down -1.12% [5] - US stock indexes are sharply lower, with the S&P 500 falling to a 1.5-week low and the Dow Jones and Nasdaq dropping to 1-week lows [4] Group 2: Corporate Earnings - Q3 corporate earnings season is strong, with 80% of S&P 500 companies reporting earnings that beat forecasts, indicating the best quarter since 2021 [6] - Q3 profits are expected to rise by +7.2% year-over-year, the smallest increase in two years, while sales growth is projected to slow to +5.9% year-over-year [6] Group 3: Notable Stock Movements - Palantir Technologies is down more than -6% despite better-than-expected Q3 sales, raising concerns about extreme valuations with a price-to-sales ratio of 85, the highest in the S&P 500 [4][15] - Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings is down more than -13% after reporting Q3 revenue of $2.94 billion, below the consensus of $3.02 billion [14] - Zoetis is down more than -12% after cutting its full-year revenue estimate to $9.40 billion-$9.48 billion, below the consensus of $9.51 billion [14] Group 4: Economic Indicators - The US government shutdown, now in its sixth week, is the longest in history and is negatively impacting market sentiment and the economy [7] - Interest rates are affected by the ongoing government shutdown, which may allow the Fed to continue cutting rates [9]

Group 1 - The dollar has eased slightly as investors assess comments from Federal Reserve officials regarding interest rate cuts [1][2] - Fed official Austan Goolsbee expressed no urgency to cut rates due to inflation remaining above the 2% target, while Stephen Miran indicated that current policy is too restrictive [2] - Mary Daly from the Fed mentioned an open mind about a potential rate cut in December, whereas Lisa Cook did not commit to another rate cut [2]

The yen was softer at 154.38 per Fed officials continued pressing competing views of where the economy stands and the risks facing it in the absence of economic data suspended due to the federal government shutdown. The Fed cut rates last week but Chair Jerome Powell suggested that might be the last cut of the year. Traders are now pricing in a 65% chance of a rate cut in December, compared with 94% a week earlier, CME FedWatch showed. That shift in near-term expectations has boosted the dollar. The euro ...

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions are influenced by job creation data, with lower job additions potentially leading to rate cuts to stimulate economic growth [1] - Rate cuts can have a direct impact on consumer finances, particularly through reduced interest rates on variable-rate products like credit cards and loans [2][4] Group 1: Impact of Job Reports on Interest Rates - A jobs report indicating fewer positions added than expected may prompt the Fed to lower interest rates to encourage economic activity [1] - Lower interest rates can lead to increased consumer and business spending, ultimately boosting demand for labor [5] Group 2: Financial Benefits of Rate Cuts - Consumers with variable-rate debts, such as credit cards and car loans, will benefit from lower interest rates, resulting in reduced interest payments [4][5] - Fixed-rate borrowers may also find refinancing opportunities as rates decrease, allowing them to secure better terms on existing loans [6][7]

This is a heavy earnings week, with 173 of the S&P 500 companies reporting earnings. Apple and Amazon.com report after Thursday’s close. Q3 earnings have been running strong so far. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, 84% of the S&P 500 companies that have reported so far have beaten forecasts, on course for the best quarter since 2021. However, Q3 profits are expected to have risen by +7.2% y/y, the smallest increase in two years. Also, Q3 sales growth is projected to slow to +5.9% y/y from +6.4% in Q2.St ...

Group 1 - Cardano (CRYPTO: ADA) experienced a 6% decline in price, influenced by Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell's comments on interest rate cuts [1] - The Federal Reserve's October meeting concluded with a quarter-point interest rate cut, setting the federal funds rate between 3.75% and 4%, but Powell indicated that a further cut in December is uncertain [2][8] - Market expectations for another quarter-point rate cut in December dropped from 91% to approximately 75% following Powell's remarks, indicating reduced certainty [3] Group 2 - The cryptocurrency sector is significantly affected by macroeconomic trends and monetary policy, with cryptocurrencies generally performing better in lower interest rate environments [4] - The Federal Reserve plans to end quantitative tightening in November, which is expected to increase money circulation and positively impact cryptocurrencies [5] - Cardano is viewed as having potential due to its strong technical network, but it remains volatile and competitive, suggesting a recommendation for a smaller, speculative investment [6]

Earnings Reports - 173 S&P 500 companies are reporting earnings this week, with Apple and Amazon.com reporting after Thursday's close [1] - 84% of the S&P 500 companies that have reported so far have beaten forecasts, indicating a strong Q3 earnings season [1] - Q3 profits are expected to rise by 7.2% year-over-year, the smallest increase in two years, while sales growth is projected to slow to 5.9% year-over-year from 6.4% in Q2 [1] Market Reactions - US stock indexes are mixed, with Meta Platforms down over 12% and Microsoft down over 2% after failing to meet expectations, while Alphabet is up over 5% after beating Q3 earnings estimates [4][13] - The S&P 500 Index is down 0.42%, the Dow Jones is up 0.60%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index is down 0.95% [5] Trade Relations - President Trump and President Xi Jinping agreed to extend a tariff truce, which includes cutting fentanyl-related tariffs on Chinese goods from 20% to 10% and resuming purchases of US agricultural products by China [2] Interest Rates - Markets are pricing in a 72% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on December 9-10, with an overall expected cut of 82 basis points by the end of 2026 [3] - The 10-year T-note yield has climbed to a 2.5-week high of 4.11%, putting pressure on stocks [3][9] Company-Specific Movements - Meta Platforms has raised its full-year total expense forecast, leading to a drop of over 12% in its stock price [14] - Sprouts Farmers Market reported Q3 net sales of $2.20 billion, below consensus, resulting in a decline of over 24% in its stock [15] - Chipotle Mexican Grill lowered its full-year sales forecast for the third time this year, leading to a drop of over 17% [16] - Guardant Health raised its full-year revenue forecast to $965 million-$970 million, resulting in a stock increase of over 32% [18] - C.H. Robinson Worldwide reported Q3 adjusted EPS of $1.40, above consensus, and announced a $2 billion share repurchase program, leading to an increase of over 18% in its stock [19]

Housing Affordability - Interest rate cuts are a good start to tackling home affordability issues [1] - More housing supply is needed to bring prices down [1] Housing Supply - Local city councils need to deregulate to enable more housing construction [1]