Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran advocates for aggressive interest rate cuts, suggesting more than 100 basis points of cuts are necessary this year to support the job market and address underlying economic conditions [1][6]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) recently voted 10-2 to keep interest rates unchanged in the range of 3.5% to 3.75% after three consecutive 25 basis point cuts in the previous months [1][3]. - Miran and fellow Governor Christopher Waller dissented in favor of a quarter-point cut during the latest FOMC meeting [1][3]. Group 2: Economic Analysis - Miran believes that current inflation measurements do not reflect actual price pressures, leading to an unnecessarily high federal funds target rate [7][10]. - He argues that the economy is not experiencing significant supply-demand imbalances that would warrant maintaining high interest rates [7][10]. Group 3: Perspectives on Future Leadership - Miran expressed support for Kevin Warsh as a potential Fed chair, highlighting his respect within the investment community and policymakers [11]. - The diversity of views within the Fed is acknowledged, with differing opinions on the necessity of interest rate cuts this year [8].

Group 1 - Investors are returning to the market at more attractive prices after taking profits from last week's historic high, recognizing that key bullish fundamentals such as central bank buying, geopolitical risks, and U.S. debt issues remain intact [1] - Concerns regarding Federal Reserve policy are creating headwinds for further market gains, particularly after the nomination of Kevin Warsh, which has led to a stall in buying and profit-taking among traders [2] - A hotter-than-expected Producer Price Index (PPI) report has raised concerns that the Fed may not cut interest rates as aggressively, undermining the bullish narrative that supported gold prices throughout 2025 [3] Group 2 - Without a solid support base, any attempts at price rallies in the gold market are likely to fail, indicating that investors may not have learned from the recent sell-off [4] - The trend remains upward according to the swing chart, as long as the December bottom at $4274.02 is not violated, with the break under the 50-day moving average at $4499.83 showing that investors respect this indicator as both support and a trend indicator [5]

Core Insights - Bread Financial Holdings, Inc. (BFH) reported a fourth-quarter operating income of $2.07 per share, significantly exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 417.5% and showing a year-over-year increase of 406% [1] - Revenues rose 5.3% year over year to $975 million, surpassing the consensus estimate by 3.62% [1] - The strong performance was attributed to pricing changes, although it was partially offset by lower billed late fees and higher retailer share arrangements [1] Financial Performance - Credit sales reached $8.1 billion, marking a 2% year-over-year increase, driven by new partner growth and increased general-purpose spending [2] - Average loans decreased by 1% to $18 billion, while end-of-period loans declined by 0.5% to $18.8 billion due to higher payment rates and elevated gross losses [2] - Total interest income increased by 2% to $1.2 billion, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.9% but missing the internal model estimate by 0.4% [3] - Net interest margin improved by 110 basis points to 18.9%, compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 18% [3] - Total non-interest expenses decreased by 5% to $500 million, influenced by the impact of repurchased debt [3] - The delinquency rate improved to 5.8%, down from 5.9% year over year [3] Loss and Earnings Metrics - The net loss rate improved by 60 basis points year over year to 7.4% [4] - Pre-tax pre-provision earnings increased by 7% year over year to $420 million [4] - Adjusted PPNR, a non-GAAP financial measure, rose by 19% year over year to $475 million [4] Capital and Shareholder Returns - Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the fourth quarter were $3.6 billion, a decrease of 2% from the previous year-end [5] - Tangible book value increased by 23% year over year to $57.57 per share [5] - Return on average equity rose by 530 basis points year over year to 6.2% [5] - The board of directors raised the dividend by 10% to 23 cents per share, payable on March 16, 2026 [6] - BFH repurchased $120 million, or 1.9 million shares, during the fourth quarter, with $240 million remaining under share repurchase authorization at the end of 2026 [6] Full-Year Performance - For the full year 2025, BFH reported an operating income of $12.09 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 87.1% and increasing by 57% year over year [9] - Total operating revenues for the year were $3.8 billion, in line with the Zacks Consensus Estimate, with a year-over-year increase of 0.2% [9] - Credit sales for the full year reached $27.8 billion, up 3% year over year [9] 2026 Outlook - BFH anticipates that interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may modestly pressure total net interest income [10] - The company expects total revenue growth in the low single digits compared to full-year 2025, aligning with average loan growth [10] - The net loss rate is projected to be between 7.2% and 7.4%, with improvements expected due to consumer resilience and effective credit management [10] - The normalized effective tax rate for the full year is expected to be in the range of 25% to 27% [11]

Core Insights - Crypto investment products experienced significant outflows, totaling $1.7 billion last week, bringing year-to-date net outflows to $1 billion [1] - The total assets under management (AUM) for crypto investment products have decreased by $73 billion from their peak in October 2025 [1] Outflows Analysis - Outflows were predominantly from the United States, which accounted for $1.65 billion of the total withdrawals [2] - Bitcoin investment vehicles saw $1.32 billion in outflows, with US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs being the main contributors at $1.48 billion [3] Bitcoin Market Dynamics - Bitcoin is currently trading below the average cost basis of US spot Bitcoin ETFs, which is approximately $87,830 per Bitcoin [4] - US Bitcoin ETF products hold around 1.28 million BTC with a total AUM of about $113 billion [3] Altcoin Performance - The total crypto market cap declined by $400 billion over the past week, with Ethereum products facing $308 million in outflows [5] - Other altcoins like XRP and Solana also experienced outflows, with XRP products losing $43.7 million and Solana products losing $31.7 million [5] Inflows and Market Sentiment - Short Bitcoin products recorded inflows of $14.5 million, with their AUM increasing by 8.1% year to date [6] - The Crypto Fear and Greed Index has dropped into extreme fear, indicating a bearish market sentiment [6] Macro Economic Factors - The ongoing selloff is attributed to a shortage of US liquidity rather than structural market issues, as noted by Raoul Pal [6] - Temporary liquidity drains are linked to two government shutdowns and issues in US funding markets [7] - Market participants anticipate fewer and slower interest rate cuts under the new Fed chair Kevin Warsh due to a firm stance on inflation [7]

Market Overview - US stock futures experienced a significant decline, with Nasdaq 100 futures dropping 1%, S&P 500 futures falling approximately 0.7%, and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures sliding 0.3% [1] - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, faced intense selling pressure, with gold briefly falling by 10% and silver sinking over 15%, marking a 30% drop in its biggest single-day decline on record [2] Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin fell below the $80,000 mark for the first time since April, trading just below $77,000 per token [3] - The dollar strengthened against major currencies, particularly those linked to commodity prices, as a result of the decline in precious metals [3][10] Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The nomination of Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve has raised speculation regarding future interest rate movements, with traders anticipating two rate cuts by the end of the year [4] Corporate Earnings and Economic Data - Over 100 S&P 500 companies are set to report earnings this week, including major firms like Amazon, Alphabet, Disney, Palantir, and Advanced Micro Devices [6] - The upcoming January jobs report is expected to show an addition of 65,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate projected to remain at 4.4% [6] Nvidia and AI Sector - Nvidia's stock fell nearly 2% after CEO Jensen Huang clarified that the proposed $100 billion investment in OpenAI was not a firm commitment [7] - The broader artificial intelligence trade is facing uncertainty, impacting investor sentiment towards Nvidia and other tech stocks [5] Individual Stock Movements - Estée Lauder's stock rose by 6% following a partnership announcement with SalonCentric for product distribution [8] - GameStop's stock continued to rise, driven by CEO Ryan Cohen's plans for expansion through acquisitions [9] - Newmont's stock fell over 3% as gold prices dropped below $5,000 [9]

Group 1 - President Trump is pressuring the Federal Reserve for immediate rate cuts, claiming that Chair Jerome Powell is harming the U.S. economy and national security by maintaining high borrowing costs [1][2] - Trump argues that the U.S. economy's strength, bolstered by tariff revenues, justifies lower interest rates, suggesting the U.S. should have the lowest rates globally [2] - The Federal Reserve held rates steady at 3.5%–3.75% and indicated no immediate plans to ease policy further, emphasizing a data-dependent approach to future decisions [2][3] Group 2 - Powell defended the Fed's independence from political pressure and stated that the central bank is "well positioned" after three rate cuts since September [3] - He downplayed the significance of rising precious metal prices, asserting that they do not reflect a loss of Fed credibility and that inflation expectations remain stable [4] - Gold prices surged 2.2% to a record above $5,530 per ounce, marking an increase of approximately 28% for the month, indicating the strongest monthly performance since January 1973 [5]

We've got a Fox Business alert. The president responded to a question on his nomination of Kevin Worsh as Fed chair. Listen.>> Did Kevin Walsh commit to you that he will push to cut interest rates if he is confirmed. >> No. But we talk about it and I've been following him and I don't want to ask him that question.I think it's inappropriate. Probably it probably would be allowed, but I want to keep it nice and pure. But he certainly wants to cut rates.I've been watching him for a long time. Okay, let's go ar ...

Thom Tillis, a Republican senator, has reiterated his vow to block Donald Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh from Fed chair until the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell, the current head of the central bank, is halted.The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell 1.1pc to 23,438 points, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined nearly 1pc to 48,582 points.All three major US indexes have extended losses as investors respond to Kevin Warsh being nominated to lead the Federal Reserve.Gold also plunged, with ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Federal Reserve does not need to cut interest rates further unless there is a deterioration in the job market or a significant drop in inflation [1][3]. Group 1: Interest Rate Policy - The current policy rate range of 3.50%-3.75% is considered neutral by the St. Louis Federal Reserve President [2]. - There is no need for additional monetary stimulus as the economy is expected to grow above trend, supported by favorable credit conditions and fiscal policy [2]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - Economic growth is supported by tailwinds, and inflation is currently above the target, making it inadvisable to lower rates into accommodative territory [3]. - Inflation is expected to decline towards the Fed's 2% target, although there are risks that it could persist above this level [3]. - There is currently less risk of a substantial deterioration in the job market [3].

Did Kevin Warsh commit to you that he will push to cut interest rates if he's confirmed. So but we talk about it, and I've been following them and I don't want to ask him that question. I think it's inappropriate.Probably probably would be allowed, but I want to keep it nice and pure. But he certainly wants to cut rates. I've been watching him for a long time.Did you have any concerns about his hawkish history of pushing for rate hikes. He's going to want to do the same thing, I think. Yeah.I've had times w ...