It's going to bring us closer together. I think this deal will bring us very close together. Actually, >> it's a huge deal.Um, it will bring stability. It will bring predictability. That's very important for our businesses on both sides of the Atlantic.>> President Trump and the European Commission's President Ursula Bonderain said that we're looking at a 15% tariff on most European goods that are exported to the US. that crucially for the EU that includes the automotive sector uh which is something that th ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Global Battery Supply Chain - **Key Event**: Announcement of a trade deal between the US and Japan, setting a reciprocal tariff rate at 15% and reducing the Section 232 tariff on Japanese automobiles from 25% to 12.5% [2][3] Core Insights and Arguments - **Impact on Battery Costs**: If Korea signs a similar trade deal, the tariff-inclusive battery costs could decline due to the halving of the Section 232 tariff [3][5] - **Competitiveness of Korean Cathode Makers**: The relative competitiveness of Korean cathode manufacturers would improve against Indonesian counterparts due to a 10 percentage point decline in the reciprocal tariff [3] - **Market Share Loss**: Korean cathode makers have reportedly lost market share to Indonesian capacities controlled by Chinese entities [3] Risks and Considerations - **Safety Issues**: The battery industry has experienced safety issues that can directly impact company profitability and industry demand, particularly through recalls [5] - **Trade Policy Volatility**: Frequent changes in trade policies are identified as key demand drivers, leading to significant profit swings for companies along the battery supply chain [5] Additional Important Information - **Analyst Contact Information**: Tim Bush and Cherie Miao from UBS Securities Asia Limited are the analysts responsible for this report [4] - **Valuation Methodology**: The report emphasizes the importance of understanding the risks and returns associated with investments in the battery supply chain [5][30] This summary encapsulates the critical points discussed in the conference call, focusing on the implications of trade agreements, competitive dynamics in the battery industry, and associated risks.

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - West Fraser generated $84 million of adjusted EBITDA in Q2 2025, representing an approximate 6% margin, continuing to operate within a cyclical downturn [4] - The company exited Q2 with nearly $1.7 billion of available liquidity and a strong cash position net of debts [5][6] - Cash flow from operations was $85 million in Q2, with a net cash balance of $310 million, up from $156 million in the prior quarter [9] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The lumber segment posted adjusted EBITDA of $15 million in Q2, down from $66 million in Q1, primarily due to lower pricing and higher fiber costs [8] - The North America EWP segment generated $68 million of adjusted EBITDA in Q2, down from $125 million in Q1, driven by lower OSB pricing [8] - The Pulp and Paper segment generated negative $1 million of adjusted EBITDA in Q2, compared to $7 million in Q1, largely due to an inventory write-down [8] - The European business posted $2 million of adjusted EBITDA in Q2, improving from negative $2 million in Q1, linked to higher OSB pricing and shipments [8] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - U.S. housing starts averaged 1,320,000 units on a seasonally adjusted basis in Q2, reflecting a decline in new home construction due to elevated mortgage and interest rates [4] - Repair and remodeling demand remained subdued, impacted by broader macro factors [5] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to maintain a strong balance sheet and liquidity profile, allowing for counter-cyclical investments and growth opportunities [6] - West Fraser is focused on controlling costs and optimizing its mill portfolio to create a more resilient company [13] - The company is prepared to support discussions regarding softwood lumber tariffs and is actively scenario planning for various trade-related outcomes [15][16] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted ongoing challenges with housing affordability and repair and remodeling markets, leading to modified shipment guidance for 2025 [10] - The company remains optimistic about the longer-term prospects for the industry despite a cloudy near-term outlook due to global trade complexities [17] Other Important Information - The U.S. Department of Commerce released preliminary combined rates for softwood lumber duties at 26.05%, which could result in an expense of $65 million if confirmed [12] - The company successfully amended and extended its $1 billion credit facility and increased its $300 million term loan [9] Q&A Session Summary Question: What have you learned about the substitutability between SPF and SYP? - Management noted that price spreads between products tend to close during high demand and separate during low demand, driven by supply and demand dynamics [20][21] Question: What are your views on a possible lumber export quota? - Management indicated that all options are on the table for discussions regarding lumber and that they are prepared to support the government in these discussions [24][25] Question: Are you cash flow positive in the North American lumber and OSB business? - Management refrained from discussing specific segment cash flow but emphasized the strength of their diversified product portfolio and counter-cyclical investments [27][29] Question: What do you need to do to improve the European business? - Management expressed confidence in their European assets and team, noting that they are well-positioned for recovery as demand improves [47][49] Question: What is the M&A opportunity set looking like? - Management stated they are ready to acquire quality assets if they become available, emphasizing a focus on quality and synergies rather than opportunistic purchases [68][70]

Monetary Policy - ECB 决定维持利率不变，为一年多以来首次 [1] - 维持三个关键 ECB 利率不变的决策背后存在原因 [1] - 市场利率受到关注 [1] Economic Outlook - 欧元区第一季度经济增长情况受到关注 [1] - 制造业和服务业发展情况是重点 [1] - 关税不确定性对经济有影响 [1] - 经济区域的失业率情况被评估 [1] - 经济增长前景展望 [1] - 呼吁加强欧元区财政和结构性政策，以增强经济韧性 [1] - 风险偏向下行，关税、贸易紧张和地缘政治不确定性是主要因素 [1] Inflation - 6 月份的年度通货膨胀情况 [1]

#报告 瑞银：特朗普与日本的协议预示着贸易政策更加明朗。None (@None):None ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported adjusted earnings per share of $2.42, up 5% sequentially and comparable to the prior year, with strong free cash flow of nearly $190 million in the quarter [17][18] - Adjusted EBITDA margin was strong at 16.6%, up 20 basis points compared to the prior year [18] - Sales were down 1% on an organic basis compared to the prior year, primarily due to deflation-related price reductions [17][18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Materials Group sales were down 1% on an organic basis, with modest volume mix growth offset by low single-digit deflation-related price reductions [19][20] - Solutions Group sales were also down 1% organically, with high-value categories up low single digits, while base solutions were down mid-single digits [22] - VESCOM, a suite of productivity solutions, was up roughly 10% in the quarter due to successful rollouts [10][22] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - North America saw low to mid-single-digit organic volume mix growth, while Europe was down low to mid-single digits due to a strong prior year [19][20] - Apparel sales were down 6% in the quarter, with overall apparel and general retail categories experiencing reduced orders and inventory levels [8][11] - Food and logistics categories showed strong growth, with food up mid-teens collectively [11][22] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is taking a cautious approach to forward expectations, anticipating third-quarter earnings per share to be comparable to the prior year [13][24] - The focus remains on high-value categories and emerging markets, with a strong balance sheet allowing for organic and M&A investments [14][52] - The company is committed to improving network efficiency and expanding innovation, particularly in the Intelligent Labels platform [15][66] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that trade policy uncertainty impacted results, particularly in apparel and general retail categories [17][30] - Despite challenges, management expressed confidence in long-term earnings progression and the ability to navigate dynamic environments [15][24] - The company anticipates a return to earnings growth in the fourth quarter, assuming no significant macro shifts [25][41] Other Important Information - The company announced a 7% increase in the quarterly dividend to $0.94 per share, continuing a decade-long trend of annual growth [19] - The company returned approximately $500 million to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends in the first half of the year [18] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you speak to whether you see pent-up demand and potential quicker turnarounds in the second half? - Management noted continued retail sales volume softness in Europe and muted customer sentiment, with expectations of low single-digit demand in apparel and general retail overall [30][31] Question: What are the expected volumes for the back half of the year? - Management reiterated that apparel business is expected to be down low single digits in Q3, with growth anticipated in Intelligent Labels in the second half [34][37] Question: What are the exit rates in your materials businesses into the third quarter? - Exit rates for the Materials Group were relatively flat overall, with slight improvements noted in June [98] Question: What is the outlook for Embellix and its reliance on global sporting events? - Management expects growth in Embellix to begin in Q4, with confidence in the long-term growth trajectory despite challenges in the apparel market [84][98] Question: How is the rollout with CVS going for VESCOM? - The rollout with CVS is progressing well, with strong growth anticipated as the company continues to leverage data for shelf-edge labeling solutions [86][87]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The second quarter 2025 net income was $299 million, or $2.01 per diluted share, with adjusted EBITDA of $533 million [13] - Revenue for the second quarter 2025 was $4.6 billion, exceeding first quarter results due to higher realized deal pricing [13] - Operating income for the second quarter was $383 million, a 39% increase from the first quarter, driven by steel metal spread expansion [14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Steel operations generated operating income of $382 million in the second quarter, over 65% higher sequentially due to an increase in average realized pricing [14] - Metal recycling operations reported operating income of $21 million, $4 million lower than the first quarter due to lower realized ferrous pricing [15] - Steel fabrication achieved operating income of $93 million, lower than the first quarter due to increased steel substrate costs [16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Domestic steel industry operated at an estimated production utilization rate of 77%, while the company's steel mills operated at a higher rate of 85% [28] - Coated flat rolled steel volume and pricing compressed during the quarter due to an inventory overhang related to imports [29] - North American automotive production estimates for 2025 were revised downward, but the company's specific automotive customer base remained stable [32] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on sustainability and has set emissions intensity targets aligned with the Paris Agreement [21] - The aluminum operations are expected to ramp up production, with a goal of achieving monthly EBITDA positive results before the end of 2025 [17] - The company aims to leverage its position as the largest North American metals recycler to enhance its competitive advantage [15][26] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving increased profitability in the third quarter, driven by higher volume and value-added product mix [92] - The company anticipates a meaningful positive shift in financial performance for the Sinton facility for the remainder of the year [37] - Management remains optimistic about steel demand and pricing dynamics, supported by ongoing onshoring activities and infrastructure spending [35] Other Important Information - The company repurchased $200 million of its common stock in the second quarter, representing over 1% of outstanding shares [19] - The company has a liquidity position of $1.9 billion, including cash and short-term investments [18] - The first biocarbon production facility is expected to begin production in the coming months, potentially reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 35% [22] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on aluminum business and EBITDA profitability - Management confirmed that there is no material change in expectations for aluminum operations achieving EBITDA positivity in the second half of the year [55][58] Question: Sinton mill's EBITDA generation - Management did not disclose specific EBITDA figures for Sinton but indicated significant improvement compared to the first quarter [61][62] Question: Market environment for aluminum ramp-up - Management noted a positive market environment with a growing supply deficit for aluminum, which is beneficial for the company [65][66] Question: Tariff exposure and pig iron sourcing - Management clarified that their long products mills do not use pig iron and emphasized their ability to manage supply chain challenges effectively [73][75] Question: Benefits of biocarbon - Management explained that biocarbon will allow for a reduction in carbon footprint and could potentially replace a portion of anthracite usage in steelmaking [84][86]

Summary of Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the impact of tariff changes on the Asian economy, with a focus on Japan and South Korea, as well as the broader implications for trade and capital expenditure (CapEx) in the region [1][2][5]. Key Points and Arguments Tariff Rates and Impacts - The weighted average tariff for the Asia region has increased from 4.8% in January 2025 to 23% currently, with projections suggesting it could rise to 27% if new tariffs are implemented on August 1 [1][2]. - Three categories of economies are identified regarding potential trade deals: 1. India is likely to finalize a deal before August 1. 2. Other economies may secure deals with tariffs above 10%, particularly in Korea and Japan. 3. ASEAN economies may receive a flat rate with minimal negotiations [2]. Trade Uncertainty and Economic Outlook - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs is affecting corporate CapEx decisions in the region, with investors indicating that the tariff issue is largely priced in [2][3]. - Historical context is provided, referencing the 2018 tariff situation where initial growth numbers remained stable despite tariff imposition, suggesting a potential lag in the impact of current tariffs [3][5]. - Key indicators to watch include monthly capital goods imports and U.S. import prices, which will help assess the burden of tariffs on Asian producers [4][5]. Japan's Economic Situation - Japan faces a 25% tariff rate, slightly higher than previous expectations, which poses downside risks to exports and CapEx if maintained [5][6]. - The upcoming upper house election on July 20 is a critical factor, with potential implications for trade negotiations and agricultural imports from the U.S. [6][8]. - The Japanese government is expected to maintain a cautious stance on agricultural imports, particularly rice, due to political pressures [6][8]. South Korea's Market Dynamics - South Korea is also affected by a 25% reciprocal tariff, with potential impacts on pharmaceuticals and semiconductors being more significant than the general tariff [9][10]. - The government is focused on market reforms and reducing real estate speculation, which could positively influence the equity market [9][10]. - Discussions around inheritance tax reforms and dividend tax changes are ongoing, with potential implications for corporate behavior and market dynamics [10][11]. Inflation and Monetary Policy - The region is expected to experience deflationary pressures due to tariff-induced slowdowns, contrasting with inflationary trends in the U.S. [16][17]. - Central banks in Asia, excluding China, are anticipated to implement rate cuts to support growth amid these challenges [16][17]. - Japan's Bank of Japan (BOJ) is unlikely to raise interest rates soon due to trade uncertainties impacting wage momentum and CapEx [8][18]. Conclusion - Overall, the conference highlights significant concerns regarding trade uncertainties and their potential impact on economic growth in Asia, particularly in Japan and South Korea. The focus remains on monitoring tariff developments, economic indicators, and policy responses from central banks [5][16][18].

Market Sentiment & Policy Impact - The global markets and Wall Street are largely dismissing President Trump's threat to reinstate tariffs, anticipating future retreats [1][3] - Major financial institutions like UBS, JP Morgan, and Goldman Sachs publicly express skepticism about the tariffs taking effect on August 1st [3] - The president's words no longer carry the same weight on Wall Street, devaluing potential policy changes [5][7] Inflation & Economic Concerns - Analysts suggest that implementing tariffs is directly inflationary, potentially influencing the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting decisions [9] - Consumers may not be immediately worried about tariffs, but a 10% tariff could impact Christmas shopping [12][15] - A New York Fed survey indicates consumers are expecting higher prices for gas, medical care, and rent [14] Government Spending & Healthcare - Concerns are raised about potential impacts on healthcare due to a proposed trillion-dollar reduction in spending, particularly regarding Medicaid [17] - The Wall Street Journal editorial board's view is that only those who deserve Medicaid should receive it, implying able-bodied adults should seek employment with healthcare benefits [17] Trade & Tariffs - The Treasury Secretary stated that $100 billion has been collected since the tariffs were put into effect, supporting the argument that tariffs are a way to raise funds [11] - Even a 10% tariff is considered high, being almost five times greater than the average tariff and the highest cumulative tariff since 1936 [12]

Core Insights - The Midyear Outlook 2025 presents a data-driven perspective on the economic and market landscape, emphasizing the need for investors to adapt to ongoing challenges such as inflation and trade uncertainties [2][3][7] - The report suggests that while the economic environment may face adverse effects from trade policies, there are emerging investment opportunities as policy-driven uncertainties begin to stabilize [4][7] Economic Environment - The report indicates that the second half of 2025 will likely see slower economic growth, reduced labor demand, and a slight increase in inflation due to the delayed effects of trade policies [7] - Concerns regarding debt, trade uncertainties, and a cautious Federal Reserve are expected to keep Treasury yields within a range, with a focus on income generation through intermediate-term bonds [7] Investment Strategies - The stock market's performance in the latter half of the year will depend on various factors including trade negotiations, advancements in AI, interest rate fluctuations, and tax policies [7] - Investors are advised to consider market pullbacks as potential opportunities to selectively increase equity positions, despite anticipated volatility in a challenging macroeconomic environment [7] Trends and Opportunities - Tactical portfolios should balance risk management with the pursuit of emerging opportunities, emphasizing diversification across asset classes, regions, and alternative investments to enhance resilience [7] - Staying vigilant during periods of market volatility may provide timely chances to acquire equity at more favorable valuations [7]