At the Federal Reserve's most recent meeting, they released their forecast for lower GDP, higher unemployment, and inflation than at the previous meeting. They projected GDP at 1.4%, unemployment to rise to 4.5%. And inflation to reach 3% in 2025.This combination of slowing growth and persistent inflation fits the classic definition of stagflation. A rare economic environment where both joblessness and prices climb at the same time. Now, in past instances of stagflation, it's been an exogenous force that pu ...

And returning now to President Trump's sweeping spending bill and Democratic governor sounding the alarm on the potential impacts of that legislation. Governor Wes Moore of Maryland calls it quote one of the worst bills for working families our country has ever seen. Governor Moore joins us now.Governor, thanks for taking time this morning to talk with us about this. You talk about this as a direct assault on your state by the federal government. As we're watching the way that this bill could change the way ...

27 Jun 2025 17:07:58 ET │ 26 pages V i e w p o i n t | US Economics Weekly Summer of dove CITI'S TAKE Our base case for rate cuts to resume in September appears to have rapidly become the Fed official consensus. Two-year Treasury yields declined to reflect the likely upcoming cuts. We project the unemployment rate to rise from 4.2% to 4.4% next week, following continuing jobless claims higher. A sharper weakening in the job market (4.5% unemployment) could lead officials to bring forward the next cut to Jul ...

Fed Chair Jerome Powell testifies before the The Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee on “The Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress.” ...

Key expectations M Idea Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Michael T Gapen Chief US Economist Michael.Gapen@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-0571 Matthew Hornbach Strategist Matthew.Hornbach@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-1837 Jay Bacow Strategist Jay.Bacow@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-2647 Sam D Coffin Economist Sam.Coffin@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-4630 Diego Anzoategui Economist Diego.Anzoategui@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-8573 Lenoy Dujon US/Canada Economist Lenoy.Dujon@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-2779 Heather Berg ...

AI Impact on Workforce - Anthropic 的 CEO 预测，未来 1 到 5 年内，AI 可能会取代一半的白领工作，引发大规模失业和经济困难 [1] - 行业内更乐观的观点认为，AI 将使人类能够完成更多的工作，实现超乎想象的生产力 [2] Productivity and ROI - 目前，一名白领员工产出 3 个单位，总价值 30 万美元，公司投资 10 万美元，投资回报率（ROI）为 200% [3] - 未来，同一名员工在 AI 代理的帮助下，假设管理 3 个代理，每个代理产出 3 个单位，总价值 90 万美元 [4]

I'm pleased to uh bring in uh Fed Governor Christopher Waller. Uh he is um joining us this morning from Washington. Good morning, Governor Waller. Good morning, Steve.Thanks for having me on. Uh thank thanks for joining us. Um I just want to begin um big debate and you can see it in the outlook for rates at the at at uh from the uh summer of economic projections.Where do you stand in this debate right now over how much concern we all should have over coming potential inflation from tariffs. Steve, you know, ...

guest for us right now as well. >> Yeah. Andrew, I'm pleased to bring in Fed Governor Christopher Waller.He is joining us this morning from Washington. Good morning, Governor Waller. >> Good morning Steve.Thanks for having me on. >> Thanks for joining us. I just want to begin big debate, and you can see it in the outlook for rates at the from the some of economic projections.Where do you stand in this debate right now over how much concern we all should have over coming potential inflation from tariffs. >> ...

Core Viewpoint - Dollar Tree is emerging as a compelling comeback story following a disappointing period in 2023 and 2024, driven by steady demand and operational efficiency, resulting in a 30% stock price increase year to date [1]. Company Overview - Dollar Tree operates a value-driven business model, offering a wide range of products priced at $1.25, which has attracted a loyal customer base with over 9,000 stores in the U.S. and Canada [4]. - The company has faced challenges with its Family Dollar brand, which struggled with a broader merchandising approach, leading to declining sales and profitability [5]. Strategic Moves - Dollar Tree announced the sale of its Family Dollar chain for $1 billion to a private equity group, expected to close soon, providing a significant cash infusion and streamlining operations [5][6]. - The sale comes amid uncertainties from proposed U.S. trade policy changes, with Dollar Tree estimating an additional $20 million in monthly costs due to tariffs on imported goods [6]. Financial Performance - In Q1, Dollar Tree reported an 11.6% year-over-year increase in net revenue, driven by a 5.4% rise in comparable sales and the opening of 148 new stores [7]. - The company achieved adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.26, up 2.4% from the previous year, supported by strong performance in discretionary merchandise categories [8]. Future Outlook - Dollar Tree expects comparable sales growth of 3% to 5% for the full year, with an EPS target of $5.15 to $5.65, slightly below the previous year's $5.51 due to tariff costs and Family Dollar sale expenses [9]. - The stock is trading at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 18, which is below the average of around 25 from 2020 to 2023, suggesting potential undervaluation [10]. Competitive Landscape - Dollar Tree faces intense competition from larger rivals like Dollar General and Walmart, which could impact its market share and sales growth [12]. - The lack of a major digital strategy may hinder Dollar Tree's ability to compete effectively in the increasingly important e-commerce segment [12]. Economic Considerations - Economic uncertainties, such as a potential trade war escalation or rising unemployment, could pose significant challenges to Dollar Tree's sales estimates [13].

The Federal Reserve's 'dot plot' and economic projections showed that Fed officials aren't hurrying to cut interest rates and expect unemployment to rise while inflation remains stubbornly high. https://t.co/G2dK1zCFlb ...