We're joined by Ben Emmens, founder and chief investment officer at Fed Watch Advisors. Ben, great to have you with us. >> Hey man, it was good to be on again.Thank you. >> So, we saw that record hit on the S&P 500 early in the session and then the market started really thinking like, uhoh, why do we really need so many cuts. Are you worried that there is a growth scare ahead of us.>> Not really. actually now because I I I've noted from the GDP data and even from some of the ISM and regional PMI data there' ...

Core Points - The Supreme Court's potential ruling on President Trump's tariffs could significantly impact economic forecasts and business planning, particularly if the tariffs are deemed unconstitutional [1][2] - Tariff uncertainty has led to a slowdown in hiring and capital spending across various sectors, with businesses hesitant to commit due to the unpredictable tariff landscape [3] - New tariffs can still be imposed under national security laws, which are not affected by the current ruling, potentially expanding tariffs on industries like semiconductors and pharmaceuticals [4] Economic Impact - If the challenged tariffs remain in place, consumer prices could rise by approximately 1%, leading to reduced spending, although this may not trigger a recession [5] - The global economy is undergoing structural changes as businesses adapt to tariff uncertainties, with a shift towards shorter supply chains and diversified sourcing strategies [6][7] - These adjustments may lead to a slight increase in production costs, impacting consumer prices but not significantly harming the overall economy [10] Business Strategies - Companies are increasingly sourcing materials locally or diversifying their supply chains to mitigate risks associated with tariffs [7][9] - The transition to more localized production and diversified sourcing will take time, but it is expected to gradually reshape global production dynamics [11] - The outcome of the Supreme Court decision will have varying effects on specific companies, necessitating close monitoring by affected business leaders [12]

Let's get back to the broader markets because we are pulling back here after hitting record highs just earlier this morning. Joining us at Post 9 is PNC Asset Management Chief Investment Strategist Young Yuma. Sentiment definitely shifted.Wonder if you think it has to do with the jobs number or what's what's going on in the market right now. Yeah, hi Sarah. It's great to be here.Well, definitely the market started off on a bit of an optimistic tone that this solidifies the Fed's rate cuts and the program of ...

Market Overview & Liquidity - The market's recent behavior is viewed as a reality check rather than a broad reflection of underlying issues [2] - The narrative of liquidity driving the market has been disconnected from fundamentals [1] - Excess savings are estimated to be around ¥6 to 7 trillion, which is smaller than many anticipate [8] - The migration of these savings into the equity market is slower than expected, with only approximately ¥300 billion in July and August [9] Policy & Regulation - Policymakers are providing guardrails rather than brakes, indicating a more targeted and earlier intervention approach compared to previous boom-bust cycles [10] - Potential policy moves, including monetary and fiscal policies, are seen as cyclical tools to cushion the economy [2] - Structural moves to encode reflation and rebalance are tied to the upcoming Fourth Plenum and the Five-Year Plan [3][4] - The need for significant stimulus measures may be lessened by the rally in Chinese equities [3] Economic Outlook & Challenges - High-frequency data, including housing exports and physical impulse, indicate soft prints in August [2] - Deflation is expected to be persistent, potentially lasting until the end of next year [12][14] - The second half of the year is forecasted to be softer, with subdued nominal growth [12][14] - Achieving a full pull-through to wages and employment for inflation is challenging [9][16] Sector-Specific Insights - The solar sector is identified as Exhibit A for anti-evolution, with a consolidation plan financed by industry funds to absorb inventory [12] - GreenTech, EVs, power storage, smart manufacturing (AI, industrial robotics), and "new productive forces" (humanoid robots, self-driving cars) show micro-level positivity, particularly in Shenzhen [15]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on global economic activity indicators, specifically the Current Activity Indicators (CAIs) developed by Goldman Sachs to assess underlying economic growth trends. Core Insights and Arguments - **GDP Limitations**: GDP is a commonly used measure of economic output but has excessive volatility, is released quarterly, and can be heavily revised, making it less reliable for real-time economic assessment [2][5][6]. - **CAI Advantages**: CAIs provide a more timely and less volatile growth signal compared to GDP, as they are based on a broader set of monthly activity and survey data [3][5][6]. - **Technical Updates**: Three technical changes were made to the CAIs: 1. Discontinued inputs were replaced with substitutes, and weights were re-estimated for affected economies [5][6]. 2. The exclusion period for pandemic-affected months was harmonized across economies to ensure consistency [7]. 3. Estimates of the relationship between business surveys and GDP were updated to capture nonlinearities more accurately [8]. - **Impact of Changes**: Most economies experienced only modest revisions to their CAIs, with some showing improved correlation with historical GDP data, indicating a modest improvement in tracking economic activity [9][14][17]. Additional Important Content - **Geographical Focus**: The updates affected various economies, including both developed markets (DM) and emerging markets (EM), with specific mentions of Australia, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Poland, Romania, and South Korea [14]. - **Data Availability**: CAIs are available monthly, providing a more immediate growth signal compared to the quarterly release of GDP [6]. - **Correlation Improvements**: The revisions generally led to an increase in the correlation between updated CAIs and quarterly GDP, enhancing the accuracy of economic activity tracking [14][17]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights and updates regarding the CAIs and their relevance in assessing global economic activity, highlighting the advantages over traditional GDP measures and the implications of recent methodological changes.

The ADP report lined up the estimate in our survey, 68 K the previous number one over four with the number this morning. As Mike mccarthy good morning, mike. The morning john i'm looking right now at the number it's 54,050 4000 jobs according to adp comes in lower than the forecast you just mentioned of 68,000 and certainly down from a revised 106,000 last month.So this is not good news for the markets and it is something that was foreshadowed by Governor Chris Waller, who noted that the Fed buys data from ...

Let's just kind of sum up what Andrew Bailey has to say yesterday, downplaying the 30 year. You can understand why and also kind of downplaying the possibility of an interest rate cuts as well. Yes.That overall that the tone has been interpreted as being cautious. And this is probably confirming the paring back we've seen in bets about further rate cuts going forward in the year. So we had our August rate cut decision.We had this historic deadlock amongst the monetary Policy committee members. So this is re ...

Australia’s household spending accelerated in July on strong growth in services, reinforcing expectations the Reserve Bank will keep interest rates unchanged later this month https://t.co/AhkcyLuPj8 ...

“Americans want a party that believes the pie can grow bigger, not one that just argues about how to slice it smaller,” writes the entrepreneur. In a guest essay he argues that the Democrats should refocus https://t.co/CfVG4YOQCk ...

With the economy at a turning point, Friday's report on job creation will attract even more attention than usual. Forecasters expect it to show August was lackluster for job growth. https://t.co/bxHuY6SBSQ ...