Core Insights - Ollie's Bargain Outlet (OLLI) is positioned to continue its earnings-beat streak, having a history of surpassing earnings estimates, particularly in the last two quarters with an average surprise of 7.97% [1][2] Earnings Performance - For the most recent quarter, Ollie's reported earnings of $0.99 per share against an expectation of $0.91, resulting in a surprise of 8.79%. In the previous quarter, the earnings were $0.75 per share compared to an estimate of $0.70, yielding a surprise of 7.14% [2] Earnings Estimates and Predictions - Recent estimates for Ollie's have been increasing, with a positive Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) indicating a strong likelihood of another earnings beat. The current Earnings ESP stands at +6.54%, reflecting bullish sentiment among analysts [5][8] - The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy) suggests a high probability of exceeding earnings expectations [8] Statistical Insights - Research indicates that stocks with a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) or better achieve a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time, implying that out of 10 such stocks, approximately seven may beat consensus estimates [6][7] Importance of Earnings ESP - The Earnings ESP metric is crucial for predicting earnings performance, as it compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Analysts revising their estimates close to the earnings release often have the most current information, which can lead to more accurate predictions [7][10]

Core Insights - JD.com is expected to report third-quarter 2025 results on November 13, with revenue estimates at $41.33 billion, reflecting an 11.4% year-over-year growth, while earnings per share are projected at 46 cents, indicating a 62.9% decline from the previous year [1][9] Earnings Performance - In the last quarter, JD.com achieved an earnings surprise of 13.76%, consistently beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate over the past four quarters with an average surprise of 18.89% [2] Earnings Predictions - Current analysis indicates a negative Earnings ESP of -3.30% and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), suggesting uncertainty regarding an earnings beat this quarter [3] Growth Factors - JD.com entered Q3 2025 with strong momentum, reporting a 22% year-over-year revenue growth in Q2, with active customer engagement increasing over 40% [4] Retail Performance - Continued strength in JD Retail is anticipated, with prior revenue growth of 21% and an operating margin of 4.5%. Categories like electronics and home appliances benefited from government trade-in incentives, while general merchandise showed steady growth [5][9] Food Delivery Segment - JD Food Delivery, launched in February, is expected to have expanded its logistics and merchant base, although high operating costs may have impacted profitability [6] Strategic Acquisition - JD announced a voluntary public takeover offer for CECONOMY AG, valued at EUR 2.2 billion, highlighting its international diversification strategy, though it may face regulatory and integration challenges [7][18] Stock Performance - JD.com shares have declined 8.3% year-to-date, underperforming compared to the Internet-Commerce industry and major indices, while competitors like Amazon and PDD Holdings have seen significant stock appreciation [10] Valuation Metrics - JD.com currently trades at a forward P/E ratio of 9.06X, significantly lower than the industry average of 25.33X, indicating a potentially undervalued position relative to expected earnings growth [13][18] Investment Considerations - JD.com shows stable growth prospects supported by retail demand and strategic diversification, but ongoing investments in logistics and international ventures may pressure near-term profitability [15][19]

Core Insights - The third-quarter 2025 reporting cycle for the Medical sector, which includes pharma/biotech and medical device companies, is nearing completion [1] Earnings Performance - Major pharmaceutical companies like Amgen, Novo Nordisk, and Pfizer reported earnings, with Amgen and Pfizer showing strong results and raising their EPS outlook for 2025, while Novo Nordisk faced weaker-than-expected results and reduced its full-year guidance due to slower growth in its GLP-1 portfolio [2] - As of November 5, nearly 82% of companies in the Medical sector, representing 92% of the sector's market capitalization, reported quarterly earnings, with approximately 92% beating earnings estimates and around 84% exceeding revenue expectations. Year-over-year earnings rose over 4%, while revenues increased nearly 11%, with overall expected increases of 3.0% in earnings and 10.5% in sales compared to the previous year [3] Potential Earnings Surprises - Four biotech companies—Alto Neuroscience, Autolus Therapeutics, Ascendis Pharma, and Immuneering—are highlighted as likely to deliver earnings beats based on their positive Earnings ESP and solid Zacks ranks [4][10] - Alto Neuroscience has an Earnings ESP of +16.41% and a Zacks Rank 2, with a consensus estimate for a loss of 66 cents per share [7] - Autolus Therapeutics has an Earnings ESP of +22.30% and a Zacks Rank 2, with a consensus estimate for a loss of 23 cents per share [11] - Ascendis Pharma has an Earnings ESP of +34.28% and a Zacks Rank 3, with a consensus estimate for a loss of 41 cents per share [13] - Immuneering has an Earnings ESP of +21.62% and a Zacks Rank 3, with a consensus estimate for a loss of 37 cents per share [15]

Core Insights - Firefly Aerospace, Inc. (FLY) is set to release its third-quarter 2025 results on November 12, with a previous negative earnings surprise of 1,161.91% in the last quarter [1][2] Factors Impacting Q3 Earnings - The upcoming earnings are expected to benefit from advancements in launch and lunar-transport programs, with an increased flight cadence of the Alpha rocket to meet high demand for launch services, particularly for national security missions [2][4] - Demand for small and medium-lift launch services is anticipated to drive earnings, supported by the growth in commercial satellite deployments and defense-related opportunities [3][7] - Sustained momentum in government and defense contracts, especially those related to national security space programs, is likely to have positively impacted the company's performance [4] - However, increased operating costs associated with research and development efforts may have exerted pressure on the bottom line [4][7] Q3 Expectations - The Zacks Consensus Estimate predicts a loss of 42 cents per share for earnings and revenues of $28.9 million [5] Earnings Prediction Model - The current model does not predict an earnings beat for Firefly Aerospace, as the Earnings ESP is 0.00% and the company holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [6][9]

Core Insights - ServiceTitan Inc. has consistently beaten earnings estimates, with an average surprise of 66.67% over the last two quarters [1] - The company reported earnings of $0.33 per share for the last quarter, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.18 per share by 83.33% [2] - The previous quarter also saw a positive surprise, with actual earnings of $0.18 per share against an expected $0.12 per share, resulting in a 50.00% surprise [2] Earnings Estimates - There has been a favorable change in earnings estimates for ServiceTitan Inc., indicated by a positive Earnings ESP of +10.87% [5][8] - The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) suggests a high likelihood of another earnings beat [5][8] - Historically, stocks with a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 3 or better have a nearly 70% chance of producing a positive surprise [6] Earnings ESP Explanation - The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, reflecting the latest analyst revisions [7] - Analysts revising their estimates close to an earnings release may provide more accurate predictions than earlier consensus estimates [7] - A negative Earnings ESP does not necessarily indicate an earnings miss but reduces the predictive power of the metric [9]

Core Insights - American Public Education, Inc. (APEI) is set to report its third-quarter 2025 results on November 10, after market close [1] - The company reported an adjusted loss per share that was narrower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 71.4%, with revenues exceeding the consensus by 1.1% and growing 6.5% year over year [1] Revenue Performance - APEI's revenue growth is attributed to an increase in students utilizing federal student aid and military-affiliated education benefit programs, along with effective marketing and enrollment strategies [4] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues in Q3 is $160.5 million, reflecting a 4.8% increase from $153.1 million in the same quarter last year [3] - The company expects net course registrations in the APUS segment to rise by 5-7% year over year, with enrollments in the RU and HCN segments projected to increase by 10% and 18%, respectively [5][6] Earnings Outlook - APEI anticipates a loss per share between 15 cents and 4 cents for the third quarter, with adjusted EBITDA expected to be between $15 million and $17 million, representing a year-over-year increase of 16-32% [8] - The company projects total costs and expenses to rise by 7.7% to $160.4 million compared to the previous year, driven by increased faculty compensation and marketing costs [9] Earnings Prediction Model - The Zacks model indicates that APEI does not have a strong likelihood of an earnings beat this quarter, with an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) [10][11]

Core Insights - Green Dot Corporation (GDOT) is scheduled to report its third-quarter 2025 results on November 10, with a history of earnings surprises, having surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the last four quarters, averaging an earnings surprise of 42.1% [1] Q3 Expectations - The consensus estimate for GDOT's revenues is $487.3 million, reflecting a 20% year-over-year growth, primarily driven by robust performance in B2B services, which is expected to generate revenues of $363.2 million, indicating a 31% year-over-year increase [2] - The bottom line is projected to show a loss of 11 cents per share, contrasting with earnings of 13 cents in the same quarter last year [3] Earnings Prediction Model - The current model does not indicate a definitive prediction for an earnings beat for GDOT, as it has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell), which does not support the likelihood of an earnings surprise [4][8]

Core Insights - MarketAxess Holdings Inc. is scheduled to report its third-quarter 2025 results on November 7, 2025, with earnings estimated at $1.69 per share and revenues of $206.42 million [1] Earnings Estimates - Third-quarter earnings estimates have been revised downward by 18 cents over the past 60 days, indicating an 11.1% decrease from the previous year [2] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues suggests a year-over-year decline of 0.1% [2] Full-Year Projections - For the full year 2025, the revenue estimate is $852.89 million, reflecting a 4.4% year-over-year increase, while the earnings per share estimate is $7.24, indicating a 0.6% decline year-over-year [3] Historical Performance - MarketAxess has a strong track record of exceeding earnings estimates, having beaten the consensus in each of the last four quarters with an average surprise of 3% [4] Earnings Prediction Model - The current model does not predict an earnings beat for MarketAxess, as it has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank of 5 (Strong Sell) [5] Factors Influencing Q3 Results - Lower transaction fees and increased expenses may counterbalance gains from Eurobond and Emerging Markets trading growth [8] - The total trading volume is expected to decrease by 0.4% year-over-year, with U.S. high-grade trading volume projected to decline by 3% [9] Trading Volume Insights - Eurobonds trading volumes are estimated to grow by 16.6% year-over-year, while Emerging Markets are expected to see a 12.6% increase [10] Revenue and Fee Estimates - The consensus estimate for commissions is $178.6 million, indicating a 1% decline from the prior year, with a 7% year-over-year fall in average variable transaction fees per million [11] - Total expenses are projected to rise to approximately $126.4 million, reflecting a 5.6% year-over-year increase [12] Information Services Revenue - Higher information services revenues are anticipated, with a consensus estimate of $13.4 million, indicating a 3.5% rise from the previous year [13]

Core Viewpoint - TransDigm Group Incorporated (TDG) is expected to report its fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 results on November 12, with a prior negative earnings surprise of 1.84% in the last quarter [1] Factors Likely to Affect TDG's Q4 Results - Strong sales from the commercial aftermarket, driven by improving air travel demand and increased flight hours, are anticipated to positively impact revenues from the Power & Control segment [2] - Increased U.S. Government defense spending is expected to enhance defense sales, contributing to top-line growth in this segment [2] - The Airframe segment is likely to benefit from robust air travel growth and rising demand for defense products, supported by solid government funding [3] Sales and Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for TDG's fiscal fourth-quarter sales is projected at $2.41 billion, reflecting a 10.1% increase from the previous year [4] - The consensus estimate for earnings is set at $10.25 per share, indicating a 4.3% rise from the year-ago figure [4] Earnings Prediction Insights - The current model does not predict an earnings beat for TDG, as it has an Earnings ESP of -0.76% and a Zacks Rank of 5 (Strong Sell) [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) is expected to report strong third-quarter earnings, with revenues projected to increase significantly year-over-year, driven by growth in fee revenues and network volume [2][9]. Financial Performance - In Q2, PGY achieved total revenues and other income of $326 million, marking a 30% year-over-year increase, primarily due to higher fee revenues [2]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Q3 revenues is $339 million, indicating a 31.9% year-over-year improvement [2][7]. - The earnings estimate for the upcoming quarter remains unchanged at 62 cents per share, reflecting a 40.9% growth from the same quarter last year [3][4]. Estimate Revision Trend - The earnings estimates for the current quarter have remained stable over the past 30 days, with no changes noted [4]. - The consensus estimate for network volume is $2.84 billion, which represents a 20.7% increase from the prior year [8]. Growth Strategy - Pagaya's growth strategy includes expanding product offerings, enhancing monetization of existing partnerships, and adding new enterprise lending partners, particularly large U.S. banks and auto captives [9][20]. - The company anticipates total revenues and other income for Q3 to be between $330 million and $350 million [9]. Valuation and Market Performance - PGY shares have outperformed the S&P 500 Index in Q3 but are considered expensive relative to the industry, with a trailing 12-month price/book (P/B) ratio of 4.19X compared to the industry average of 3.35X [13][16]. - While PGY trades at a premium to LendingClub, it is at a discount to LendingTree, which has a P/B of 5.97X [19]. Business Model Resilience - The company has diversified its business model beyond personal loans into auto lending and point-of-sale financing, which helps mitigate cyclical risks [20]. - Pagaya has established a network of over 135 institutional funding partners to support its asset-backed securities, enhancing liquidity and stability [21].