The market’s focus this week will be on economic news and any fresh news on the Federal Reserve. On Wednesday, Nov PPI final demand is expected to increase +2.7% y/y, and Nov core PPI is also expected to climb by +2.7% y/y. Also, Nov retail sales are expected to have increased +0.5% m/m and +0.4% m/m ex-autos. In addition, Dec existing home sales are expected to climb +2.2% m/m to 4.22 million. Finally, the Supreme Court on Wednesday may rule on the legality of President Trump’s tariffs. On Thursday, weekly ...

Core Insights - Grocery prices have surged, but this increase has been offset by lower price increases for appliances and vehicles, indicating a mixed inflationary environment ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting [1] Group 1: Grocery Prices - The report highlights a significant rise in grocery prices, which is a key concern for consumers and the economy [1] Group 2: Appliances and Vehicles - In contrast to grocery prices, the increases in prices for appliances and vehicles have been lower, suggesting some relief in these sectors [1] Group 3: Federal Reserve Context - This report is the last one before the Federal Reserve convenes to discuss interest rates, making it a critical indicator for potential monetary policy decisions [1]

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warns the Justice Department's grand jury subpoena of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell risks undermining confidence in the central bank and could ultimately push inflation expectations and interest rates higher. ...

Economic Indicators - October new home sales are expected to decline by -10.6% month-over-month to 715,000 units [1] - November PPI final demand is projected to rise by +2.7% year-over-year, with core PPI also expected to increase by +2.7% year-over-year [1] - December existing home sales are anticipated to increase by +2.2% month-over-month to 4.22 million [1] - Weekly initial unemployment claims are expected to rise by +7,000 to 215,000 [1] - January Empire manufacturing survey is expected to improve by +4.9 to 1.0 [1] - December manufacturing production is forecasted to decrease by -0.1% month-over-month [1] Stock Market Movements - Credit card companies are experiencing declines, with Visa down more than -3% and Mastercard down more than -2% following President Trump's comments on interest rate caps [3][12] - Energy-producing stocks are rising, with WTI crude oil increasing over 1% to a 1.75-month high due to geopolitical risks [4] - The S&P 500 Index is down -0.02%, while the Nasdaq 100 Index is up +0.09% [6] - Mining stocks are gaining, with Hecla Mining up more than +3% and Barrick Mining up more than +2% due to rising silver prices [11] Earnings and Forecasts - Q4 earnings growth for S&P companies is expected to rise by +8.4%, with a +4.6% increase excluding the Magnificent Seven tech stocks [7] - Option Care Health's stock is up more than +9% after a positive EBITDA growth forecast for 2026 [12] - Revvity's preliminary Q4 revenue of $772 million exceeds the consensus of $756.9 million, leading to a stock increase of more than +9% [13] - Cardinal Health raised its full-year adjusted EPS forecast to at least $10.00, stronger than the consensus of $9.83, resulting in a stock increase of more than +3% [14] International Markets - The Euro Stoxx 50 reached a new record high, up +0.41%, while Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 closed up sharply by +3.10% [8]

Core Insights - U.S. inflation is showing slight cooling, but price pressures, especially in grocery stores, remain significant [1][2] Inflation Metrics - Core consumer prices rose by 0.2% in December, slightly below forecasts, indicating a gradual approach towards the Federal Reserve's 2% target [2] - Headline CPI met analyst expectations, aided by a notable drop in used car prices, although affordability issues persist [3] Grocery Prices - Food prices continued to rise in December, contributing to tight household budgets despite a broader inflation stabilization [4] - Five out of six major grocery store food group indexes increased in December, with specific increases: other food at home up 1.6%, cereals and bakery products up 0.6%, fruits and vegetables up 0.5%, nonalcoholic beverages up 0.4%, and dairy products up 0.9% [5] Shelter and Energy Costs - Shelter costs are still rising, but at a slowing pace, with rents showing the smallest year-over-year increase since 2021, indicating a potential slowdown in housing inflation [6] - Energy prices have also edged higher, suggesting that inflationary pressures are not fully alleviated [6] Federal Reserve Outlook - Analysts and prediction markets expect the Federal Reserve to maintain steady interest rates for the time being, reflecting a cautious approach despite the cooling trend in inflation [7] - Political pressure from the White House may complicate the Fed's decision-making, potentially making them more hesitant to cut rates [7]

Market Overview - U.S. stock markets are experiencing volatility as investors react to inflation data and the start of the fourth-quarter earnings season, with major indexes previously closing at record highs [1][5] - Premarket trading showed a mixed trend, with Nasdaq 100 futures down 0.2% to 0.3%, and S&P 500 and Dow Jones futures declining by 0.1% to 0.2% [2] - Following the release of the December Consumer Price Index (CPI), futures for major indexes reversed earlier declines, with Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, and Dow Jones futures rising by 0.2%, 0.2%, and 0.1% respectively [3] Commodities and Currency - Gold futures remained stable near record highs, while silver futures surged to an all-time high of $87.56 per ounce [4] - WTI crude oil futures increased by approximately 2% to $60.70 per barrel, influenced by geopolitical tensions and potential tariffs on countries doing business with Iran [4] - Bitcoin was trading around $92,000, and the U.S. dollar index rose by 0.1% to 98.92 [4] Earnings Reports - The fourth-quarter earnings season commenced, with JPMorgan Chase & Co. reporting a drop in profit due to a one-time charge, but excluding this charge, profits increased [8][13] - Delta Air Lines experienced a premarket decline of 4-5% after releasing profit forecasts that fell short of market expectations [13] - Other companies reporting include Bank of New York Mellon and Concentrix, with Delta's results particularly scrutinized for insights into the travel industry's health [8] Stock Movements - L3Harris Technologies shares surged by 11-12% after announcing plans to spin off its Missile Solutions business, supported by a $1 billion investment from the Defense Department [13] - Chipmakers Intel and AMD saw gains of 3.6% and 2.6% respectively, following an upgrade to "overweight" by KeyBanc due to strong data-center demand [13] - Alphabet's stock rose by 0.68% after achieving a $4 trillion market valuation, bolstered by news of Google Gemini enhancing Apple's Siri [13] Other Corporate News - Xpeng Inc. ADR shares dipped 2.63% despite plans to establish localized supply chain teams in Europe and ASEAN [13] - Travere Therapeutics saw a significant slump of 28% after an FDA request for clarification on its therapy's clinical benefits [13] - Synopsys shares fell 2.3% following a downgrade to "neutral" by Piper Sandler, citing growth headwinds [13] - Credit card companies stabilized in premarket trading after experiencing declines due to proposed caps on interest rates [13] - Walmart gained on news of its inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 index [13]

Economic Indicators - The U.S. consumer price index increased by 0.3 percent in December, aligning with economist expectations [2][31] - Core consumer prices, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.2 percent in December, slightly below the expected 0.3 percent increase [2][31] - The annual growth rate of consumer prices remained unchanged at 2.7 percent in December, consistent with November's rate [2][32] - The annual growth rate of core consumer prices also held steady at 2.6 percent, while an increase to 2.7 percent was anticipated by economists [3][32] Stock Market Performance - Major U.S. stock indices are projected to open slightly higher, following a recovery from an initial pullback [1] - The Dow Jones rose by 86.13 points (0.2 percent) to close at 49,590.29, while the Nasdaq increased by 62.56 points (0.3 percent) to 23,733.90, and the S&P 500 climbed by 10.99 points (0.2 percent) to 6,977.27 [5] - The NYSE Arca Computer Hardware Index surged by 5.0 percent, indicating strong performance in the computer hardware sector [10] Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates at its upcoming meeting, with potential cuts of at least a quarter point anticipated in the following months [10] - Concerns regarding the Federal Reserve's independence have arisen due to subpoenas served by the Department of Justice related to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's testimony [6][7] - Powell described the subpoenas as "unprecedented," attributing them to pressure from President Trump regarding interest rate policies [8] Commodity Markets - Crude oil futures increased by $1.15 to $60.65 per barrel, while gold futures rose by $8.10 to $4,622.80 per ounce [12]

Core Insights - Core U.S. consumer prices rose less than expected in December, indicating a potential easing of inflation as the Federal Reserve considers its next interest rate decision [1] - The consumer price index (CPI) excluding food and energy showed a monthly increase of 0.2% and an annual increase of 2.6%, both 0.1 percentage points below expectations, suggesting that core inflation may be stabilizing [2] - The overall CPI increased by 0.3% for the month, aligning with the Dow Jones consensus estimate, while the annual rate stood at 2.7%, indicating that inflation is moving closer to the Fed's 2% target but remains elevated [3] Detailed Breakdown - Shelter, a significant component of the CPI, rose by 0.4% monthly and 3.2% annually, contributing notably to the overall inflation figures [4] - Food prices increased by 0.7% for the month, with notable rises in recreation, airfares, and medical care, while some tariff-sensitive categories also saw price increases [5] - The recreation category experienced a record monthly gain of 1.2%, the largest since data collection began in 1993, highlighting significant inflationary pressures in certain sectors [5]

The JPMorgan chief reiterated his support of the Fed after the DOJ investigation. ...

U.S. stock index futures edged lower on Tuesday as investors waited on a key inflation report for fresh clues on where interest rates go next, while JPMorgan Chase's fourth-quarter results kicked of... ...