Economic Momentum and Job Growth - The U.S. is entering 2026 with strong economic momentum, with a 15% increase in capital expenditure, which historically leads to job growth [2][3] - President Trump is expected to address the nation regarding his economic priorities for the upcoming year [3] Tariffs and Trade Policy - The Supreme Court is set to make significant decisions regarding President Trump's emergency use of tariffs, which could have major implications for the economy [5][6] - The imposition of tariffs is viewed as a national security measure, aimed at countering the mercantilism of countries like China [11][14] - Mexico has recently voted to impose tariffs on Chinese goods, reflecting a broader shift among U.S. allies towards similar trade protections [18][19] Global Trade Strategy - The trade team is encouraging countries like Mexico and Europe to adopt tariff protections similar to those of the U.S. to combat global mercantilism [18] - The coordinated global strategy against China's trade practices is emphasized, indicating that the U.S. is not acting alone in its trade policies [19] Economic Predictions - There is optimism regarding the potential for the Dow to reach 50,000, with a call for patience regarding the implementation of the Trump administration's economic agenda [23]

Trump says that affordability is a Democratic "hoax," but his tariffs derailed an economy that was headed in the right direction (via @opinion) https://t.co/RmGQFkGKM1 ...

Core Insights - CFOs are entering 2026 with expectations of ongoing pricing pressure and economic uncertainty, as indicated by the latest CFO Survey from Duke University's Fuqua School of Business and the Federal Reserve Banks of Richmond and Atlanta [1] Pricing Pressure and Growth Expectations - CFOs anticipate a median price increase of 3.5% for products and services in 2026, reflecting elevated cost dynamics influenced by tariffs, input costs, and customer sensitivity [3][4] - The findings suggest that CFOs are preparing for price increases as part of broader margin management strategies, indicating a sustained high price growth outlook [4] Labor Market Insights - The median company expects a 1.7% increase in full-time employment in 2026, with 59% of companies planning to expand their workforce, while 15% plan to reduce headcount and 26% expect no change [5] - Wage growth is projected to average around 3%, indicating ongoing compensation pressure despite a moderation in hiring and falling interest rates [5] Economic Outlook - CFOs expect real GDP growth of 1.9% in 2026, showing stability in their outlook, although the CFO optimism index for the overall economy has slightly declined from 62.9 to 60.2 [6] AI Investment Trends - Investment in AI is expected to grow, particularly among smaller and mid-sized firms, with 78% of large companies having invested in AI in 2025, and nearly 80% of small firms planning to invest in AI in the coming year [7]

Core Insights - Japan's exports increased by 6% in November year-over-year, with a notable rise in shipments to the U.S. for the first time since March, attributed to reduced tariff uncertainties following a trade deal with the Trump administration [1][5] - Total imports rose by 1.3%, resulting in a trade surplus of 322.2 billion yen (approximately $2.1 billion) [1] Exports to the U.S. - Exports to the U.S. saw a nearly 9% increase, driven by shipments of cars, chemicals, and cameras, which offset declines in machinery and iron and steel [2] - The tariff deal with the Trump administration set the baseline import duty for most products at 15%, which boosted passenger car shipments by 8% in terms of vehicle numbers, although the value of these vehicles only increased by 1.5% [3] Imports from the U.S. - Imports from the U.S. rose by over 7%, contributing to a trade surplus of 739.8 billion yen ($4.7 billion), which is an 11% increase from the previous year [4] Exports to Other Regions - Exports to the European Union surged by about 20%, supported by increased demand for machinery, vehicles, and other manufactured goods [4] - However, exports to China fell by 2.4% due to weaker shipments of chemicals, machinery, and vehicles, influenced by rising tensions following comments from Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi regarding Taiwan [5] Future Outlook - Despite the recent recovery in trade with the U.S., higher tariffs are expected to continue impacting exports negatively, although forecasts suggest that Japan's exports may improve in the coming year [5] - Increased U.S. spending related to AI is anticipated to support Japan's exports [6]

Money, power, politics. Tonight, the November jobs report may include a warning sign about the state of the economy. More jobs were added in November than expected.That was largely driven by the healthc care sector, but unemployment rose to 4.6%. Now, that is the highest level since September 2021 when the economy was still coming out of the COVID pandemic. Joining me now to discuss is Justin Wolfers, a professor of economics and public policy at the University of Michigan and Jean Sperling, former director ...

Inflation Overview - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to rise by 3.1% year-over-year in November, marking the highest annual inflation since May 2024, up from 3% in September [1][9] - Core inflation is anticipated to remain at 3% year-over-year, consistent with September's figures [1] Impact of Tariffs - Inflation has been steadily increasing since April, primarily due to steep import taxes imposed by the government on nearly all U.S. trading partners, which have led businesses to pass on tariff costs to consumers [2] - Despite some cooling in price increases for categories like rent, overall inflation remains high due to these tariffs [2][9] Federal Reserve's Dilemma - Accelerating inflation complicates the Federal Reserve's goal of maintaining a 2% annual inflation rate, which has not been achieved since 2021 [3] - Some Federal Reserve policy committee members advocate for maintaining high interest rates to curb spending and inflation, but the majority favor rate cuts to support the struggling job market [4] Future Inflation Expectations - Many forecasters predict that inflation will begin to cool later in the year as the effects of tariff price hikes dissipate [7] - Wells Fargo Securities anticipates that while goods inflation may rise temporarily due to tariffs, overall inflation will stabilize around 3% through the first half of 2026, with a gradual decline towards 2% as tariff pressures ease and productivity gains are realized [8]

Consumer Spending Trends - Consumer spending remains engaged, with retail sales excluding autos up 41% driven by double-digit growth in e-commerce during Black Friday [2] - Overall spending is running at approximately 4% [3] - Inflation in the holiday basket is around 2%, slightly above last year's deflationary levels [6] Economic Factors and Uncertainty - The unemployment rate climbed to 46% in November, the highest in over four years [1] - Companies stockpiled inventory in advance and shifted supply chains to mitigate price adjustments [8] - Uncertainty around trade changes and the global realignment of trade impacts workforce allocation [11] - Uncertainty surrounding AI investments also influences workforce decisions [12] Labor Market Dynamics - Churn in the workforce is lower, indicating a slowdown in the hiring rate [10] - Companies are cautious in allocating dollars towards the workforce due to uncertainty [11] - There is no increase in firing, which is a positive sign [12]

Supply Chain Diversification - The industry faces a fundamental shift in government policy regarding market operations due to tariffs [1] - Companies are actively diversifying their supply chains to mitigate risks associated with concentrated manufacturing in one region [2][3] - A company's toy and game volume sourced from China decreased from approximately 60-65% to around 50% and aims to reach roughly 30% by 2027 [2] - Diversification requires time to onboard vendors and ensure quality, especially for products like toys [3] Cost Management - Companies are implementing productivity initiatives to offset increased costs resulting from tariffs [1] - Relocating supply chains is not a simple task, but flexibility exists [1][2] Risk Management - Over-reliance on a single geographic location for manufacturing is undesirable, regardless of tariff policies [3]

The U.S. economy stumbled at the end of the year, new surveys showed, as rising prices tied to tariffs reduced customer demand and spurred businesses to further tighten the reins on hiring. ...

Group 1: Supreme Court Ruling on Tariffs - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated that the Supreme Court ruling on tariffs will be a significant decision for the administration, with implications for national security [1][2] - The cases before the Supreme Court challenge the legality of President Trump's tariffs, questioning the authority granted by the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) [5][6] - Total duty revenue from tariffs reached $215.2 billion in fiscal year 2025, with an additional $71 billion collected since the start of the new fiscal year on October 1 [8][9] Group 2: Federal Reserve Chair Selection - President Trump is currently interviewing candidates for the Federal Reserve chair position, with Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh being the top contenders [10][14] - Bessent noted that Trump has been methodical in the interview process, having conducted interviews and planning more in the coming weeks [11][12] - The current Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell, is set to complete his term in May 2026, at which point the new chair will assume the role [15]