标普500指数自4月低点已反弹18%，眼看就要进入技术性牛市。 高盛交易员指出市场经历了一场轮回：年初的乐观情绪在三四月被恐慌取代，但如今股指又 回到了原点。这轮过山车行情中，真正的赢家只有散户——他们成了唯一的"逢低买入"主力 军。 但高盛发出 警告， 美国经济衰退风险正在逼近。而 衰退一旦发生，可能会迫使美联储从当 前水平下调利率多达200个基点。 从短期来看，美股仍面临"下行风险不对称"的局面。 接下来如何进行投资布局对冲风险？ 每一个细微的市场信息都能成为决胜的关键！ 除了必须要看的美股研究社外， 这几个硬核账号也可以赶紧关注起来： 老徐聊海外 十年美股期权玩家，从财报套利到组合风控，只讲能落地的实战策略： 各类套利、波动率交易等策 略拆解，期权链深度分析，以及美股中线交易。 每周实盘复盘 + 干货输出，适合想系统学美股和期 权的投资者。 周期雪爷 点击名片关注啦 对于短线情绪流和主升感兴趣，想精准踏准柿场节奏的可以关注"周期雪爷"。一位职业女选手，擅长情 绪和趋势周期。对大A短线和主升方面有一定深入研究。 价投老鬼 关注价值投资的朋友可以关注。不追涨杀跌，专注企业价值与长期福利。作者曾亲历多次财富大 ...

RealEstate网站5月9日报道，最新调查显示，澳洲民众对房地产市场的信心在连续 3个季度下跌后出现 大幅反弹。与此同时，澳洲最大银行之一预测利率将回归至疫 情时期水平。 周五发布的NABResidential Property Index指出，今年3月，该指数"大幅上涨至 远超平均水平的40点， 此前连续3个季度呈下降趋势"。 预计未来12个月内该指数将 达到51点，未来两年将达到54点。 澳洲国民银行（NAB）首席经济学家Sally Auld预计，利率下调将支撑经济增长， 澳洲经济将实现'软着 陆'。 今年下半年的通胀率将稳定在澳联储目标区间的中间水 平，失业率将保持在4.5%以下。 （图片来源：RealEstate） "也就是说，全球经济正面临逆风，全球增长放缓可能对澳洲经济增长产生负面影 响，同时也会起到抑 制通胀的作用。这意味着澳联储需要更快实现利率正常化，并 进一步降低利率以提供额外支持。" "因此，我们现在预计澳联储将在8月前将现金利率降至3.1%，并在2026年初降至 2.6%。" （图片来源：RealEstate） 最新调查发现，未来12个月的房价增长预期几乎翻了一番，达到2.3%（此前 ...

Group 1 - Fujian Huadong Bank announced adjustments to personal notice deposit rates, effective May 10, 2025, with rates set at 0.8% for 1-day and 1% for 7-day deposits [1] - This marks the fourth adjustment of deposit rates by Fujian Huadong Bank since April, with significant reductions in various term deposit rates, including a 45 basis point decrease for the 3-year personal term deposit rate [3] - The bank's previous adjustments included lowering the 3-year and 5-year personal term deposit rates to 2.8% and 2.9% respectively, and various other term rates were also reduced during April [3] Group 2 - Jilin Yilian Bank adjusted its fixed-term deposit rates starting May 3, with the 2-year rate decreased from 2.4% to 2.2%, the 3-year rate from 2.6% to 2.4%, and the 5-year rate from 2.5% to 2.3%, each by 20 basis points [4] - Since April, multiple private banks have announced interest rate cuts, reflecting a broader trend in the banking sector [4] - The People's Bank of China announced a reduction in the policy rate by 0.1 percentage points, which is expected to influence the loan market quotation rate (LPR) to decrease by the same margin, prompting commercial banks to lower deposit rates accordingly [4]

MacroPolicy Perspectives创始人：（美联储）在某个时点将利率下调50个基点"完全合理"。劳动力市场 数据显示我们正逐渐陷入衰退。 ...

哥伦比亚央行意外将利率下调25个基点至9.25%。 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The report highlights that despite uncertainties in the Singapore real estate market, there are positive factors supporting its development [1][2] - Global economic conditions and geopolitical tensions are identified as significant external challenges impacting the market [2][9] - Singapore's position as a regional financial hub and government policies are seen as stabilizing factors for the real estate market [2][10] Group 2: Economic Outlook - Singapore's GDP growth is projected to decelerate to 1-3% in 2025, down from 4.0% in 2024 [5][9] - Inflation is expected to ease to 1.5-2.5% in 2025, following a decline from 4.8% in 2023 [5][19] - Interest rates in Singapore are anticipated to follow a downward trend, with projections suggesting a decrease to 3.75%-4.00% by the end of 2025 [5][21] Group 3: Office Market - The office market saw a net absorption of 1.91 million sq. ft. in 2024, the highest since 2017, driven by new Grade A office developments [28] - Vacancy rates for Core CBD (Grade A) offices decreased to 4.9% by the end of 2024, indicating a flight to quality among occupiers [30] - Core CBD (Grade A) rents are expected to grow modestly by around 2% in 2025, supported by limited supply and continued demand for high-quality spaces [39] Group 4: Industrial & Logistics Market - E-commerce and logistics sectors accounted for 39% of leasing demand in 2024, indicating resilience despite challenges [46] - An estimated 4.92 million sq. ft. of logistics supply is expected in 2025, which is about 3.9% of existing warehouse stock [53] - Average prime logistics rents rose by 1.1% to $1.87 psf per month in 2024, with expectations of stability in 2025 [54] Group 5: Retail Market - Tourism recovery is projected to continue in 2025, with visitor numbers expected to rise due to new attractions and events [62][63] - Approximately 0.50 million sq. ft. of retail space is expected to complete in 2025, significantly lower than previous years, which should support retail rents [70] - Overall average retail prime rents are expected to grow by 2-3% in 2025, recovering to pre-pandemic levels [74]

路透调查：28位经济学家中有20位预计泰国央行将在4月30日将其关键利率下调至1.75%。泰国央行预 计到三季度末将基准利率降至1.50%，较二月份的临时调查中公布的2.00%有所下降。 ...

路透调查：预计印尼央行将在2025年第二季将7天期逆回购利率下调25个基点至5.50%（与3月调查结果 相同）。 ...

我之前和老胡有过交流，他的持仓以蓝筹股和白马股为主，如果他都跌到5万（-90%），那a股乃至这个国家大概也已经风雨飘摇了。 2800要是搁以前会觉得是一个很低很吓人的位置，但是这一波靠着国家队日日兜底，层层托举，从3174点跌到2784点花了三个半月的时间，这就是现实版 的温水煮青蛙。我冒昧问一下诸位蛙兄弟，锅里面感觉如何，水温烫不烫...? 看k线，中间也有过几次阳线反弹，但这一步三回头的才容易把人诱进去，也给一些犹豫不决的人希望。我的建议是阴跌不抄底，跌到鬼哭狼嚎，全场骂 天骂地了再博一博。 跌破2800了，很多人在转发胡锡进之前在参加一次线下活动时的发言截图，说跌破2800他就去跳楼。其实这段内容是拼接的，原话说的是他的50万如果跌 到5万，他可能就要去跳楼了，没说过跌破2800点就跳楼。他就算再不懂股市也应该能感觉到2800并不安全，不可能在这个位置撂狠话。 我昨晚有提到去年那一轮的利率下调是0.73%，目前需要一轮和去年力度相当的下调，0.8%这个数字看起来比较合理。 之所以没有立即执行方案是为了保护银行的净息差，截止6月底中国银行业的净息差已经降到1.54%的史低，而维持合理盈利能力需要达到1.8 ...