来源：滚动播报 Nedgroup Investments的Rob Burdett写道，美国法官推翻总统特朗普全球关税的裁决应会提振全球股市， 并对其他资产类别具有重要影响。最高法院周五裁定，根据一项紧急法案征收的关税不合法，为价值数 以十亿美元计的国际贸易免除关税铺平了道路。Burdett表示，此举将提振美国和世界各地的股市。他表 示，与此同时，美国国债收益率可能会上升，而美元则可能因进口商已支付的关税有获得退款的可能而 走软。在其他方面，Burdett预计投入成本将会降低，从而缓解利润率压力，尤其是零售商和制造商的利 润率压力。 ...

美元预计短期走强，长期呈"慢熊"格局；美债短期收益率上行，价格承压，中长期若政策可信，长期通 胀预期锚定在2%附近。全球股市短期承压，长期美股先破后立。黄金中长期牛市的核心逻辑依然稳 固，央行购金将持续增加，美元信用的任何瑕疵也会加速全球多极化储备体系的构建。 另外，地缘层面的避险需求也出现降温迹象。伊朗与美国官员确认，双方将于周五在阿曼举行谈判。该 消息缓解了市场对相关局势迅速升级的担忧，削弱了黄金作为避险资产的吸引力。投资者正密切关注谈 判进展，以判断是否会进一步影响避险资产配置逻辑。 昨日黄金市场早盘开盘在4980.4的位置后行情先拉升给出5024.2的位置后行情强势回落，日线最低给到 了4756.9的位置后行情低位区间盘整，日线最终收线在了4782.9后行情以一根上影线稍长的大阴线收 线，而这样的形态收尾后，今日的行情回踩空，点位上，本周下方4400的多减仓后止损上移放到4500， 今日4855尝试空，止损4862，目标看4800和4780和4755，跌破的话看4723和4702和4675-4670离场准备 多。 在这种背景下，黄金作为无息资产的吸引力明显下降。历史上，每当美元指数出现显着反弹，黄金往 ...

Group 1 - The global economy is transitioning from "high volatility" to "new equilibrium," facing new uncertainties and challenges while instability and imbalance are somewhat reduced [2][4] - In 2026, a series of positive factors are expected to drive global economic recovery, including expansionary fiscal policies, loose monetary policies, and an AI investment boom [4][5] - Global GDP growth is projected to be between 2.9% and 3.1% in 2026, slightly lower than in 2025, with developed economies growing below 2% and emerging markets, especially in Asia, continuing to be the main growth drivers [5] Group 2 - The global trade environment shows signs of partial recovery, with the U.S. likely to pragmatically adjust aggressive trade protection measures and deepen multilateral cooperation [8][9] - However, new protectionist forces may emerge, particularly in developed economies like Europe, which may impose "rules-based" barriers to trade [9] Group 3 - Inflation pressures remain in developed economies, with service prices showing stickiness and tariff impacts having delayed effects [13][10] - Global inflation is expected to decrease from 4.2% in 2025 to between 3.2% and 3.6% in 2026, with most developed economies approaching a 2% target [11] Group 4 - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut uncertainty is increasing, with potential further cuts in 2026 depending on economic conditions and inflation expectations [14][15] - The political landscape and economic data may influence the Fed's decisions on interest rates, with pressures from the Trump administration complicating the situation [15] Group 5 - Many countries are expected to increase fiscal policy efforts in 2026 to counter economic downturn risks, with significant public investment planned in various sectors [17][18] - However, some countries face constraints on fiscal expansion due to high debt levels and external pressures [18] Group 6 - U.S.-China economic relations may experience a phase of easing, with the U.S. adjusting its stance towards China and seeking selective cooperation in non-sensitive areas [21][22] - This shift is driven by economic interdependence and political considerations ahead of the 2026 midterm elections [22] Group 7 - Countries are increasingly prioritizing supply chain "self-sufficiency" due to geopolitical risks and technological competition, leading to a restructuring of supply chains in strategic sectors [24][25] Group 8 - Global stock markets are expected to experience cautious optimism, with potential for upward movement driven by interest rate cuts and AI investments, but structural differentiation may increase [26][27] - Emerging markets are likely to attract more investment due to favorable conditions, while U.S. markets may face volatility and risks associated with high valuations [28] Group 9 - The U.S. dollar is anticipated to remain weak, influenced by lower interest rates and various economic factors, with fluctuations expected within a range [29][30] Group 10 - Gold prices are projected to remain strong amid geopolitical risks and a weakening dollar, although there may be short-term corrections due to various market factors [33][34]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that the policies of the Trump administration will significantly impact global markets this year [1] Group 1: Economic Impact - CITIC Securities believes one of the core goals of the Trump administration is to lower long-term interest rates through changes in Federal Reserve personnel and various initiatives, which would boost the traditional economy and assist in midterm elections [1] - If successful, this could positively influence global stock markets and commodities [1] Group 2: Foreign Policy and Asset Impact - The administration's foreign policy actions are primarily focused on domestic issues and voter demands, which may only have a transient impact on major asset classes [1] - The extent of the fiscal deficit expansion remains uncertain, which could benefit gold and non-ferrous metals [1] Group 3: Midterm Elections - The results of the midterm elections are deemed very important; despite Trump's efforts to gain an advantage, a Republican loss could negatively impact risk assets, excluding U.S. Treasuries, in the short term [1]

Market Performance - Emerging markets continued to rise, with MSCI Global up by 1.9%, MSCI Developed up by 1.3%, and MSCI Emerging up by 6.8%[9] - The Hang Seng Index showed the best performance among emerging markets, increasing by 4.0%[9] - The 10Y U.S. Treasury yield rose significantly, indicating a shift in bond market dynamics[9] Investor Sentiment - Trading volume in the Chinese stock market surged, with the Shanghai Composite Index trading 4.054 billion shares worth $9.94 billion, a week-on-week increase[24] - The short-selling ratio in Hong Kong fell to 12.9%, below the 10-year average, indicating heightened investor confidence[24] Earnings Expectations - U.S. earnings expectations for 2025 were revised upward, with the S&P 500's EPS forecast increasing from +10.3% to +10.4%[68] - The Hang Seng Index's EPS forecast for 2025 was downgraded from -1.8% to -1.9%[68] - European earnings expectations remained stable, with the STOXX50 index's EPS forecast unchanged at -4.6%[69] Economic Outlook - The U.S. economic surprise index rose, influenced by lower-than-expected CPI data and uncertainties regarding the new Federal Reserve chair[9] - The Chinese economic surprise index also increased, supported by the central bank's monetary policy adjustments[9] Capital Flows - Global liquidity showed signs of tightening, with expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut rates decreasing slightly to 1.8 times in 2026[56] - Recent capital inflows into Hong Kong amounted to HKD 240 billion, with significant contributions from the Stock Connect program[65]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs' stock strategy team indicates that global equity markets are in a typical "optimism phase," with the bull market expected to broaden by 2026, despite lower expected returns compared to 2025 [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance and Predictions - The weighted price return for global equity markets is projected to be 13% in 2026, with a total return of 15% including dividends, building on a strong performance in 2025 [1]. - The market has shown significant recovery since April, with major U.S. indices rebounding nearly 45% from their lows [1][6]. - The current bull market is shifting from valuation-driven to earnings-driven, with geographic diversification becoming evident as most major stock markets are expected to outperform U.S. equities in 2025 [4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Risks - The market is currently characterized by record concentration at national, industry, and individual stock levels, making diversification particularly urgent for 2026 [4][8]. - Historical patterns suggest that the final year of a market cycle often sees significant price surges, raising the risk of a bubble, especially if speculative behavior is driven by AI narratives [5]. - The report highlights that the recovery path has been tumultuous, with significant downturns earlier in the year due to tariff concerns and the "DeepSeek" effect on the tech sector [5][6]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Goldman Sachs emphasizes the necessity of diversification across regions, styles, and sectors to optimize risk-adjusted returns [8][11]. - Suggested strategies include focusing on emerging markets, combining growth and value stocks, and leveraging capital expenditures in traditional sectors benefiting from AI developments [11].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs indicates that global stock markets are likely to continue rising next year, but with more moderate returns due to corporate earnings growth and the Federal Reserve's accommodative monetary policy [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - Goldman Sachs strategists, including Peter Oppenheimer, maintain a constructive view on the stock market for 2026, anticipating sustained earnings growth [1] - Despite the ongoing bull market expansion, expected index-level returns are projected to be lower than those in 2025 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs indicates that global stock markets are expected to continue rising next year due to corporate earnings growth and the Federal Reserve's accommodative monetary policy, although returns will be more moderate compared to 2025 [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - Goldman Sachs strategists, including Peter Oppenheimer, maintain a constructive view on the stock market for 2026, anticipating continued earnings growth [1] - The report suggests that in the context of an expanding bull market, the return rates at the index level will be lower than those in 2025 [1] Group 2: Economic Projections - Economists at Goldman Sachs expect ongoing economic expansion across various regions, alongside a further moderate easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve [1] - The 12-month stock price forecast, weighted by regional market capitalization, predicts a 13% return in USD terms for 2026, which will increase to 15% when dividends are included [1]

" 特别是在去年9月24日之后政策转向，政策活了、企业活了，资金也就随之活跃，这是我们深度认 可的。 " 邢自强认为， 在整体经济面临低物价循环、房地产调整、消费复苏乏力等多重挑战的背景 正 如市场 所 预期，北京时间12月11日凌晨，美联储以降息25个基点为其年内利率决议收官。 在 这一背景下， 中国资产受全球资金青睐程度或将再 度 提升。 " 即便是整体宏观经济的挑战 、 低物价循环的风险还在，但中国出现的以人工智能 等等 为代表的 新型行业的赛道 ， 已经足以让全球投资者和中国自身的资产管理者找到一定的投资机会 。" 摩根 士丹利中国首席经济学家邢自强 认为。 文/ 董映颉 12月7日，由联办集团、和讯共同主办、财经中国会承办的财经中国2025年会暨第23届财经风云榜 在北京圆满落幕。在"巅峰对话：全球变局下的资产配置"环节中，邢自强 表达了上述观点。 邢自强 用"经过跳跃般的一年之后会进入整固稳定的阶段"来概括对中国股市的展望。 他认为 ，在 经历了信心修复和估值重估后，市场可能会进入一个由企业盈利温和增长主导的、更具结构性的阶 段。 01 AI 在中国 " 显然不是泡沫 " 在风险再定价、资产再平衡 ...

Core Viewpoint - U.S. stock futures showed a slight increase as the Federal Reserve's two-day meeting is set to begin [1] Group 1 - The movement in U.S. stock futures indicates market anticipation ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy discussions [1]