根据高盛的预测模型，以美元计价，2026年全球股市的加权价格回报率预计为13%，若包含股息，总回报率将达到15%。这一预测建立在2025年 市场强劲表现的基础上。回顾过去一年，尽管市场并非直线式上涨，且在年初因"DeepSeek"引发的科技行业外溢效应及关税担忧导致纳斯达克指 数一度下跌近25%，但随后市场经历了剧烈反弹。自4月低谷以来，美国两大主要股指反弹幅度接近45%。 高盛股票策略团队在最新发布的展望报告中指出，全球股市正处于典型的"乐观阶段"，牛市行情的广度将在2026年进一步扩大。由Peter Oppenheimer领导的策略团队维持对股票市场的建设性看法，尽管他们预计2026年的主要指数回报率将低于2025年，但盈利增长将继续支撑市场表 现。 高盛强调，当前的牛市正由单纯的估值修复转向盈利驱动，且市场表现已开始展现出地域多元化的特征，大多数主要股票市场在2025年的表现均 优于美股。这标志着投资者多年来首次真正受益于地理多元化配置。同时，周期性股票相对于防御性股票的强劲表现，以及好于预期的经济数 据，进一步推高了增长预期。 然而，高盛也警告称，鉴于目前市场在国家、行业及个股层面仍存在创纪录的集中度 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs indicates that global stock markets are likely to continue rising next year, but with more moderate returns due to corporate earnings growth and the Federal Reserve's accommodative monetary policy [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - Goldman Sachs strategists, including Peter Oppenheimer, maintain a constructive view on the stock market for 2026, anticipating sustained earnings growth [1] - Despite the ongoing bull market expansion, expected index-level returns are projected to be lower than those in 2025 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs indicates that global stock markets are expected to continue rising next year due to corporate earnings growth and the Federal Reserve's accommodative monetary policy, although returns will be more moderate compared to 2025 [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - Goldman Sachs strategists, including Peter Oppenheimer, maintain a constructive view on the stock market for 2026, anticipating continued earnings growth [1] - The report suggests that in the context of an expanding bull market, the return rates at the index level will be lower than those in 2025 [1] Group 2: Economic Projections - Economists at Goldman Sachs expect ongoing economic expansion across various regions, alongside a further moderate easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve [1] - The 12-month stock price forecast, weighted by regional market capitalization, predicts a 13% return in USD terms for 2026, which will increase to 15% when dividends are included [1]

" 特别是在去年9月24日之后政策转向，政策活了、企业活了，资金也就随之活跃，这是我们深度认 可的。 " 邢自强认为， 在整体经济面临低物价循环、房地产调整、消费复苏乏力等多重挑战的背景 正 如市场 所 预期，北京时间12月11日凌晨，美联储以降息25个基点为其年内利率决议收官。 在 这一背景下， 中国资产受全球资金青睐程度或将再 度 提升。 " 即便是整体宏观经济的挑战 、 低物价循环的风险还在，但中国出现的以人工智能 等等 为代表的 新型行业的赛道 ， 已经足以让全球投资者和中国自身的资产管理者找到一定的投资机会 。" 摩根 士丹利中国首席经济学家邢自强 认为。 文/ 董映颉 12月7日，由联办集团、和讯共同主办、财经中国会承办的财经中国2025年会暨第23届财经风云榜 在北京圆满落幕。在"巅峰对话：全球变局下的资产配置"环节中，邢自强 表达了上述观点。 邢自强 用"经过跳跃般的一年之后会进入整固稳定的阶段"来概括对中国股市的展望。 他认为 ，在 经历了信心修复和估值重估后，市场可能会进入一个由企业盈利温和增长主导的、更具结构性的阶 段。 01 AI 在中国 " 显然不是泡沫 " 在风险再定价、资产再平衡 ...

Core Viewpoint - U.S. stock futures showed a slight increase as the Federal Reserve's two-day meeting is set to begin [1] Group 1 - The movement in U.S. stock futures indicates market anticipation ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy discussions [1]

"因此，随着当前有利的环境延续到2026年，配置不足的投资者可以考虑增加股票敞口。"瑞银看好美国 科技、医疗保健、公用事业和银行板块，并认为"欧洲领军者"有望受益于政策和结构性增长。在亚太地 区，看好澳大利亚、日本和中国，尤其是中国科技板块。 尽管全球股票估值仍处于历史高位，但估值溢价主要归因于基准权重中估值较高板块的增长。瑞银还认 为，盈利增长才是衡量未来回报的更重要指标，预期主要市场明年的盈利增长将在7%-14%的稳健水 平，为短期上行提供支持。 人民财讯12月4日电，瑞银财富管理投资总监办公室(CIO)表示，随着美联储进一步降息，且增长将在明 年下半年重新加速，当前经济环境有利于全球股市。从历史上看，当经济没有衰退且美联储降息时，股 票表现最佳，而最新的经济数据表明目前正处于有利环境。美国经济目前的疲态可能是暂时性现象，全 球增长应在2026年加速。强劲的盈利增长预期应推动股市进一步上涨。 ...

一旦掌握這7個人生複利公式，你的人生將開始快速成長 https://youtu.be/Uz0awqTLJeA 會員頻道的內容會依照這7個公式，一步步陪你實踐 👉 加入會員頻道，從第1個公式開始實踐：https://bit.ly/goldenrich-members ☕️ 如果你想免費支持我們，這裡有個簡單的方法： 👉 https://bit.ly/GET-IBKR 🙏 點擊連結沒有任何費用，每次點擊都能幫助支持我們的頻道。IB盈透證券：全球領先、備受信賴的投資平台，交易覆蓋150個市場，低成本、資金靈活，是多元化投資的理想選擇！ (Disclosures: https://bit.ly/content-disclosure) 全球股市的財富，其實都壓在7家公司！你還以為自己有分散？ 「不要把所有雞蛋放在同一個籃子裡」這句話，基本上是所有投資人的共識。為了降低風險，大家通常會去分散投資，買不同的理財商品，在資產配置上抓好比例，希望透過不同資產之間的互相抵銷，讓虧損少一點、收益多一點。 但如果你覺得自己把雞蛋分到不同籃子、甚至還很用心地分配好比例，就能睡得很安心，那你的投資組合可能沒有你以為的那麼穩。原因，就藏在 ...

Core Viewpoint - U.S. stock futures are nearly flat, and international stock markets show mixed results as investors pause after a rally on Monday [1] Group 1 - U.S. stock futures indicate a stable market outlook, remaining just shy of flat [1] - International stock markets are experiencing mixed performance, reflecting varied investor sentiment [1] - The market reaction follows a significant rally on Monday, suggesting a moment of consolidation among investors [1]

Market Performance - Global equity markets experienced a broad rally, with MSCI Global up by 1.9%, MSCI Developed Markets also up by 1.9%, and MSCI Emerging Markets rising by 2.2% [4][8] - Among developed markets, the South Korean Composite Index showed the strongest performance with a gain of 5.1%, while the Australian S&P 200 had the weakest performance with a gain of only 0.3% [8] - In emerging markets, the ChiNext Index performed best with an increase of 8.0%, while the Mexican MXX Index was the worst performer, declining by 1.0% [8] Trading Sentiment - Overall trading volume decreased across global markets, with the VIX index showing a rapid decline [19] - In terms of investor sentiment, the short-selling ratio in Hong Kong stocks decreased to 15.8%, indicating a historical low sentiment level, while the North American sentiment index rose to 90.4%, reflecting a high sentiment level [19][26] Earnings Expectations - The earnings expectations for the US tech sector were revised upward during the earnings season, with the S&P 500's EPS forecast for 2025 adjusted from 268 to 269 [63] - The Hong Kong market also saw an upward revision in earnings expectations, with the Hang Seng Index's EPS forecast for 2025 increased from 2059 to 2061 [63] - In contrast, the European market's earnings expectations remained flat, with the STOXX50 Index's EPS forecast for 2025 unchanged at 332 [64] Economic Outlook - Major market economic sentiment indicators showed improvement, with the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index for the US, Europe, and China all rising [4][63] - The rise in these indices was attributed to factors such as the potential end of the US government shutdown, easing inflation expectations, and improved US-China negotiations [4] Fund Flows - The market is increasingly pricing in two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve within the year, with expectations confirmed by recent economic data [46][50] - In terms of liquidity, there was a notable inflow of funds into the US, China, India, Japan, and South Korea, with a total inflow of 210 billion USD into these markets in September [55][58]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a recent positive development in the market, indicating an upward adjustment that could benefit investors and the overall industry [3]. Group 1 - The announcement of an upward adjustment is expected to have a significant impact on market sentiment and investor confidence [3]. - This adjustment may lead to increased investment opportunities within the sector, potentially driving growth and profitability for companies involved [3]. - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring these developments closely, as they could influence future market trends and investment strategies [3].