Global Macro - The Federal Reserve's September FOMC meeting resulted in a 25 basis point rate cut to the 4.00%-4.25% range, viewed as a typical preemptive measure rather than a response to severe labor market deterioration [1][2] - The labor market is slowing but remains manageable, with low unemployment reflecting a "weak balance" rather than a robust recovery, making significant rate cuts unlikely to rapidly improve employment [1][2] - The dot plot indicates a division among policymakers, with 10 out of 19 supporting two or more rate cuts this year, while 9 support fewer than two, suggesting cautious expectations for future cuts [2] Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,545, reflecting a 0.09% increase, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose by 0.17% to 9,472 [4] - Major global indices showed varied performance, with the Dow Jones increasing by 0.37% and the S&P 500 by 0.49%, while the FTSE 100 and CAC 40 experienced slight declines [4] Economic Data Releases - Upcoming U.S. economic data includes the Manufacturing PMI for September, expected at 53.00, and Durable Goods Orders for August, anticipated to decline by 2.80% year-on-year [6] - The second quarter GDP growth is projected at 3.30%, a significant recovery from the previous -0.50% [6] Sector Insights - The consumer sector is expected to see moderate recovery with multiple opportunities in the second half of 2025, as indicated in a recent deep dive report [6] - The renewable energy sector continues to face uncertainties but remains attractive for investment, particularly in dividend stability [6] - The automotive industry is accelerating the penetration of hybrid technologies, with a focus on autonomous driving and robotics [6]

Group 1 - The silver market is experiencing a bullish trend, with prices rising for the fifth consecutive trading day and reaching a 14-year high [1] - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut of 25 basis points has lowered the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, providing support for silver prices [2] - The rapid growth of the photovoltaic industry continues to drive demand for silver, maintaining high consumption levels [2] Group 2 - The Saudi sovereign wealth fund has been increasing its holdings in silver ETFs, indicating confidence from large institutional investors in the long-term value of precious metals [2] - A weakening dollar trend enhances the overall attractiveness of commodities, including silver [2] - Geopolitical risks have eased somewhat, which may limit the safe-haven premium for silver prices [2] Group 3 - Technically, silver found support in the $41.30-$41.50 range and is attempting to close above $42.00, with resistance concentrated between $42.30 and $42.80 [3] - If silver prices break above the resistance zone, they may challenge the yearly high of $43.50 [3] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently around 47, indicating potential bullish pressure if it rises above 50, while a drop below 45 could strengthen the case for further declines [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Governor, Michelle Bowman, stated that she has not discussed the dot plot with former President Trump [1] Group 1 - The statement indicates a separation between the Federal Reserve's decision-making processes and political discussions [1] - The dot plot is a tool used by the Federal Reserve to communicate its interest rate projections, which may influence market expectations [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut in 2025 after maintaining rates steady for six consecutive meetings [1] Group 1: Rate Decision - The rate decision was passed with a vote of 11 in favor and 1 against, with Stephen Miran opposing the decision, advocating for a larger cut of 50 basis points [1] - The adjustment in the assessment of the labor market was identified as a key reason for the rate cut, with recent employment growth slowing and a slight increase in the unemployment rate [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The updated "dot plot" indicates that policymakers expect two more rate cuts by the end of 2025, with predictions of 25 basis point cuts in October and December meetings [1] - The upper limit of the federal funds rate is projected to reach 3.75% following these anticipated cuts [1] Group 3: Powell's Stance - Despite the rate cut, Chairman Powell's statements leaned towards a "hawkish" tone, describing the cut as a "risk management" measure rather than signaling the start of a new rate-cutting cycle [2] - Future monetary policy decisions will be based on subsequent economic data and will not follow a predetermined path [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The core decision - making group led by Powell is inclined to cut interest rates three times this year, which is considered the basic scenario. Next year, due to the collective reshuffle of the Fed Chairman and regional Fed presidents, the dot - plot has limited reference value, and the Fed's independence needs to be re - evaluated. "Risk - management type interest rate cuts" imply limited interest rate cut space unless subsequent labor data continues to deteriorate [2][3] Summary by Related Contents Fed's Interest Rate Decision in September - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected at the September FOMC meeting, and the pace of balance - sheet reduction remained unchanged. The market focused on the subsequent interest rate cut rhythm indicated by the dot - plot and the impact of political pressure on the Fed [2] - The biggest change in the meeting statement was the clear indication that "downside risks to employment have risen", which was consistent with Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting. In the voting session, most members supported a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut, and only the newly - appointed Miran called for a 50 - basis - point cut [2] Dot - Plot Implication - The dot - plot implies three interest rate cuts this year, which dispels the market's concerns about hawkish interest rate cuts. Compared with June, the dot - plot in September is more dovish, with the number of interest rate cuts in 2025 increasing from 2 to 3, while the forecasts for 2026 and 2027 remain at one cut per year, and the long - term interest rate forecast stays at 3% [2] - There is still a stalemate in the FOMC regarding the number of interest rate cuts this year. Among 19 members, 10 support three or more cuts, and 9 support two or fewer cuts. Excluding extreme values, the dot - plot shows a 25 - basis - point parallel downward shift compared to June, indicating that the core decision - making group supports three cuts this year [2] Economic Forecast - The latest economic forecast shows that the Fed is "cautiously optimistic" about the economic outlook. GDP growth is slightly up, inflation is slightly higher, and the unemployment rate is basically stable. This year's GDP growth rate is about 1.6%, next year it is 1.8%; overall PCE inflation is 3.0% this year, expected to drop to 2.6% in 2026 and approach 2.1% in 2028; the unemployment rate is about 4.5% at the end of the year and will decline slightly thereafter [2] - Interest rate cuts in this context may reflect that the Fed believes that a faster approach to the neutral interest rate can hedge against the downward pressure on employment and growth without significantly sacrificing price stability [2] Reasons for "Risk - Management Type Interest Rate Cuts" - The current labor market has a dual decline in supply and demand. Reduced immigration and lower labor force participation lead to a decrease in labor supply, and the rise in the unemployment rate reflects a slowdown in job creation. The "low recruitment, low lay - off" characteristic of the labor market makes the Fed adopt "risk - management type interest rate cuts" [6] - The slow transfer of inflation provides room for interest rate cuts. The expected impact of tariffs is a "one - time price - level increase", and companies between exporters and consumers bear the tariff costs. With the weakening of the labor market, the risk of continuous inflation further decreases, allowing the Fed to shift its policy focus [6] Focus on Fed's Independence - Powell emphasized at the press conference that the Fed works based on the latest data and does not consider other factors. The 12 - member rotating voting system requires a strong argument for a single voter to persuade others [6] - When asked about including the "moderate long - term interest rate" as a third mission, Powell stated that the Fed has a dual mission, and the moderate long - term interest rate is a natural result of stable inflation and maximum employment, and will not be incorporated into the policy - making framework [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the September 2025 meeting, the Fed cut interest rates by 25BP, lowering the policy rate to 4 - 4.25%, with Governor Milan voting against and advocating for a 50BP cut [1] - The Fed's meeting statement emphasized the downside risk to employment, stating that new job growth has slowed, and the unemployment rate has marginally increased but remains low [1] - In the SEP economic forecast, the Fed raised its expectation for interest rate cuts this year, lowering the year - end policy rate forecast from 3.9% to 3.6%, implying two more rate cuts this year [1] - The Fed also adjusted GDP growth, core PCE growth, and unemployment rate forecasts for 2025 and 2026, which may reflect the Fed's use of rate cuts to eliminate risks in the job market [1] - Although the dot plot revised up the expected rate cuts for the year, Powell did not clearly turn dovish at the press conference, stating that the rate cut was a "risk management cut" and that he was still in a data - watching mode [1] - In terms of asset prices, US Treasury yields first declined following the dovish dot - plot guidance and then rose due to Powell's "risk management" remarks. The US dollar index also moved in a similar pattern [1] - The Fed's future rate - cut path remains uncertain. There is a probability of a 25BP rate cut at the end - October meeting, but whether there will be a rate cut in December depends on inflation [1] - In the short term, the 10Y US Treasury yield may face resistance at 4%. The 10Y US Treasury yield needs a strong catalyst to break below 4%, and the US dollar index is expected to fluctuate with rate - cut expectations before a real recession risk emerges in the US [4] Summary by Related Aspects Fed Meeting Results - In the September 2025 meeting, the Fed cut interest rates by 25BP, lowering the policy rate to 4 - 4.25%, with one dissenting vote for a 50BP cut [1] - The Fed's statement emphasized employment risks, and the SEP economic forecast adjusted multiple economic indicators and raised the expectation for rate cuts this year [1] Powell's Stance - Powell did not clearly turn dovish at the press conference. He attributed the 25BP rate cut to a change in the risk - balance relationship between inflation and employment and described it as a "risk management cut" [1] Asset Price Movements - US Treasury yields first declined and then rose, with the 2Y and 10Y yields up 1BP and 4BP respectively compared to before the meeting. The US dollar index also moved in a similar pattern [1] Future Rate - Cut Outlook - The Fed's future rate - cut path is uncertain. There is a probability of a 25BP rate cut in October, and the December decision depends on inflation [1] Strategy Suggestions - In the short term, the 10Y US Treasury yield may face resistance at 4%. It needs a strong catalyst to break below 4%. The US dollar index is expected to fluctuate with rate - cut expectations [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to 4.00% to 4.25%, marking its first rate cut since December 2024, amid slowing economic growth and a weakening labor market [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Conditions - Economic activity in the U.S. has slowed down in the first half of the year, with job growth also decelerating and a slight increase in the unemployment rate [1][3]. - Inflation remains elevated, with the Fed acknowledging that inflation has recently risen again, despite the ongoing challenges in the labor market [3][4]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Decision - The decision to cut rates was passed with 8 votes in favor and 1 against, with only one member advocating for a larger cut of 50 basis points [3][4]. - The Fed's statement reflects a "hawkish" stance, recognizing the increased risks to the labor market while also noting the uptick in inflation [3][5]. Group 3: Future Projections - The Fed forecasts an additional 50 basis points cut by the end of the year, with expectations of 25 basis points cuts in each of the following two years [4]. - Analysts suggest that the Fed's focus is shifting towards the labor market, with a potential for accelerated rate cuts to stabilize growth amid ongoing fiscal pressures [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate to a range of 4.00%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut of the year, aligning with market expectations [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy - The Fed's dot plot indicates the possibility of two more rate cuts by the end of the year, each by 25 basis points [1][2]. - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell described the rate cut as a "risk management" decision, emphasizing the need to respond to a cooling labor market [1][3]. - The Fed's economic forecast report slightly upgraded GDP growth predictions for 2025 and 2026 to 1.6% and 1.8%, respectively, both up by 0.2 percentage points from June [2]. Group 2: Employment and Inflation Outlook - The Fed is prioritizing employment over inflation, indicating a higher tolerance for inflation in the short term [2][3]. - The projected unemployment rate remains stable at 4.5% for 2025 and 4.4% for 2026, unchanged from previous forecasts [2]. Group 3: Internal Disagreements and Future Projections - There is significant division among Fed officials regarding future rate cuts, with 9 out of 19 voting members supporting two more cuts, while others are more cautious [3][5]. - The dot plot reflects a lack of consensus, with some members advocating for only one additional cut or none at all [5][6]. - The Fed's decision-making process is reportedly unaffected by political factors, as emphasized by Powell [6][7].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, indicating a shift towards employment-focused policies rather than inflation-driven decisions [1][2][6] - The latest "dot plot" revealed that 12 out of 19 FOMC members expect at least one more rate cut this year, signaling a stronger dovish stance than previously anticipated [2][4] - Fed Chair Powell described the rate cut as a "risk management" measure, emphasizing the current weakness in the labor market while downplaying the likelihood of aggressive easing [1][6] Group 2 - UBS analysts noted the inconsistency in the Fed's actions, as they lowered rates while simultaneously predicting accelerated economic growth and rising inflation [4] - Market reactions were volatile, with initial optimism quickly reversing as Powell's comments led to a surge in bond yields and a decline in stock prices, particularly in tech stocks [7][12] - The Fed's cautious approach suggests a gradual easing of rates rather than a dramatic shift, with future policy decisions heavily reliant on upcoming economic data [10][13]

唯一投下反对票的是由特朗普提名、并于会议召开前一天宣誓就职的新任理事斯蒂芬·米兰，他主张降息50个 基点。由于米兰身份的特殊性，市场忽视了这一张反对票。 当地时间9月17日，美联储结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点到 4.00%至4.25%之间。这是美联储2025年第一次降息，也是继2024年三次降息后再次降息。 美国总统特朗普自今年1月就任以来，持续施压美联储大幅降息，而美联储主席鲍威尔一直顶住压力未受影 响。直到17日，美联储联邦公开市场委员会以11票赞成、1票反对通过了降息决议，此前利率已连续五次会议 保持不变。 美联储在这次会议上更新了"点阵图"。目前预计今年内还将再降息两次，每次25个基点，比6月时的预测多出 一次。其中一名美联储官员预测，到今年内政策利率将再下调125个基点。美联储官员们小幅上调了对2026年 经济增长的预估中值，并预计明年通胀将略高于此前预测。 一些投资者解读，美联储对劳动力市场风险的强调暗示，接下来几个月的宽松政策可能已经确定。 外界此前猜测，在7月曾主张降息的理事米歇尔·鲍曼和克里斯托弗·沃勒会在这次会议上推动降息50个基点。 但在特朗普的压 ...