韩国央行推出新的前瞻性指引，效仿美联储的点阵图。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses U.S. Treasury Secretary Becerra's suggestion for significant adjustments to the Federal Reserve's policy framework, including the introduction of an inflation "range" system and the potential elimination of the widely watched interest rate "dot plot" [3][4][7]. Group 1: Proposed Changes to Federal Reserve Policy - Becerra advocates for a shift from a fixed inflation target of 2% to a more flexible range system, such as 1.5% to 2.5% or 1% to 3%, once inflation is under control [4][7]. - He criticizes the current use of the "dot plot" as a communication tool, suggesting it may be abolished to reduce market dependence on short-term interest rate predictions [7][8]. Group 2: Critique of Quantitative Easing - Becerra harshly criticizes the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing (QE) policies, labeling them as an "engine of inequality" that has exacerbated wealth disparities by artificially inflating asset prices [8]. - He argues that large-scale asset purchases should be limited to emergency situations and not be a long-term strategy, highlighting that the Fed faces approximately $100 billion in annual losses from high-priced bond purchases [8]. Group 3: Coordination with Fiscal Policy - Becerra emphasizes the need for closer coordination between the Federal Reserve and the Treasury, suggesting that if the Treasury demonstrates a commitment to controlling deficits, the Fed should lower interest rates to facilitate fiscal tightening [10]. - He envisions a future economic landscape where fiscal and monetary policies work in tandem, aiming to reduce the budget deficit to 3% of GDP by 2026 [10].

2025年12月25日 星期四 商品期货早班车 招商期货-期货研究报告 基本金属 | 招商评论 | | | --- | --- | | | 市场表现：昨日电解铝主力合约收盘价较前一交易日+0.61%，收于 22330 元/吨，国内 0-3 月差-270 元/吨， LME 价格 2965.5 美元/吨。 | | | 基本面：供应方面，电解铝厂维持高负荷生产，运行产能小幅增加。需求方面，周度铝材开工率小幅下降。 | | 铝 | 交易策略：宏观环境偏暖和海外供应扰动为价格提供支撑，但下游开工率维持低位，现货跟涨乏力，预计铝 | | | 价维持震荡整理。 | | | 风险提示：海外供应扰动。 | | | 市场表现：昨日氧化铝主力合约收盘价较前一交易日+1.35%，收于 2554 元/吨，国内 0-3 月差 78 元/吨。 | | 氧 | 基本面：供应方面，氧化铝厂运行产能保持稳定。需求方面，电解铝厂维持高负荷生产。 | | 化 | 交易策略：氧化铝运行产能维持高位，库存持续攀升，叠加铝土矿、煤炭价格持续下行，成本支撑力度有限， | | 铝 | 预计价格维持震荡偏弱。 | | | 风险提示：几内亚矿端扰动，大规模集中减 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Bessent, supports a reevaluation of the Federal Reserve's inflation target once inflation stabilizes at 2%, suggesting a shift to a range-based target [1][4] Group 1: Proposed Changes to Federal Reserve Policy - Bessent criticizes the current fixed inflation target and advocates for a more flexible range, such as 1.5%-2.5% or 1%-3%, arguing that economic systems are complex and nonlinear [1][4] - He suggests the potential elimination of the "dot plot" tool used for guiding market expectations on interest rates, aiming to reduce market dependency on short-term predictions [3][4] - Bessent indicates that the new Federal Reserve chair may favor a reduction in the Fed's role, moving away from being the central focus of economic policy [3][4][6] Group 2: Critique of Quantitative Easing - Bessent labels quantitative easing as an "engine of inequality," asserting that it has artificially inflated asset prices and widened the wealth gap between asset holders and wage earners [5][6] - He argues that large-scale asset purchases should be limited to emergency situations, contrasting current practices with historical norms where central banks would remit profits to the Treasury [5][6] Group 3: Coordination Between Fiscal and Monetary Policy - Bessent emphasizes the need for closer collaboration between the Federal Reserve and the Treasury, suggesting that if the Treasury demonstrates commitment to controlling deficits, the Fed should lower interest rates to support fiscal tightening [7] - He envisions a future economic landscape where Wall Street and Main Street are integrated, proposing initiatives like providing investment funds for newborns to enhance financial literacy [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent's suggestions for significant adjustments to the Federal Reserve's policy framework, including the introduction of an inflation "range" instead of a fixed target and the potential elimination of the widely watched interest rate "dot plot" [1][6]. Group 1: Proposed Changes to Federal Reserve Policy - Bessent advocates for a reduction in the Federal Reserve's intervention in the economy, suggesting a return to a more traditional behind-the-scenes role and improved policy coordination with the Treasury [2][9]. - He emphasizes that while the inflation target of 2% should not be adjusted until inflation is under control, he supports the introduction of a flexible "range" concept for future targets [2][8]. - Bessent criticizes the current use of the "dot plot" as a tool for guiding market expectations on interest rates, indicating that it may be abolished under new leadership to reduce market dependency on short-term rate predictions [6][8]. Group 2: Critique of Quantitative Easing and Economic Inequality - Bessent harshly criticizes the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing (QE) policies, labeling them as an "engine of inequality" that has exacerbated wealth disparities by artificially inflating asset prices [10]. - He argues that large-scale asset purchases should be limited to emergency situations and not used as a long-term strategy, highlighting that the Fed currently faces approximately $100 billion in annual losses due to high-priced bond purchases [10]. Group 3: Coordination Between Fiscal and Monetary Policy - Bessent calls for closer cooperation between the Federal Reserve and the Treasury, suggesting that if the Treasury demonstrates a commitment to controlling deficits, the Fed should lower interest rates to facilitate fiscal tightening [12]. - He envisions a future economic landscape where Wall Street and Main Street are integrated, proposing initiatives like the "Trump accounts" to provide investment funds for newborns to enhance financial literacy and equity ownership [12].

另外近期地缘摩擦有所升温，投资者需要重点关注美国和委内瑞拉的关系可能出现进一步恶化的风险；以色列和伊朗可能再起冲突。 百利好特约智昇研究资深分析师辰宇认为，贝森特的言论令市场再度押注美联储宽松，叠加避险情绪升温，黄金价格表现强势。 技术面：日线上，连续多个交易日行情破位上行且收阳线，近期多头强势。20日均线和62日均线延续上行，显示多头主导行情。日内关注下方4455美元一线 支撑情况。 铜方面： 黄金方面： 日线上，近期行情震荡上行，隔夜行情收阳线，显示短期铜价较为坚挺。指标上看，行情测试20日均线之后走高，短期有望延续上行行情。日内关注下方 5.47美元一线支撑。 美国财长贝森特表示，可能会重新考虑美联储的通胀框架，并称他更加倾向于设定通胀区间而非固定目标。贝森特甚至暗示美联储新任主席可能会考虑废除 点阵图，这一举措将标志着美联储政策前景可能发生重大的变化。 黄金小时图 日线上，最近一个月行情以震荡调整为主，单边行情需要等待行情突破该震荡区间，故而短期行情延续区间调整概率较大。日内关注下方50320一线支撑情 况。 ---------------------------------------------- ...

Core Insights - The focus of the market is on the U.S. Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report, which has become a decisive factor in the divergent policy paths of the Federal Reserve [1] - The recent FOMC meeting revealed deep divisions within the Federal Reserve, with a 25 basis point rate cut implemented but three formal dissenting votes, the highest since 2019, indicating differing priorities [2] - The NFP report is expected to significantly influence market narratives for early 2026, with potential for volatile reactions based on the data [4] Federal Reserve Dynamics - The Federal Reserve is currently adjusting its policies based on weekly economic data rather than following a predetermined path, making the dot plot for 2026 less reliable [3] - There are contrasting views within the Fed: hawkish members emphasize the need for moderate tightening due to high inflation, while dovish members advocate for larger rate cuts due to a weakening labor market [8] Market Reactions to NFP - A weak NFP report (less than 80,000 new jobs) would confirm a cooling labor market, supporting dovish views and potentially causing the dollar index (DXY) to drop below 98.00, while gold prices may rise [8] - Conversely, a strong NFP report (more than 180,000 new jobs with robust wage growth) would indicate economic resilience, supporting hawkish views and possibly pushing DXY up to 99.50, while gold could retreat to around $4,150 [8] Asset Outlook - The U.S. Dollar Index (USDX) is currently under pressure below 98.00, awaiting the NFP data to trigger directional movement; a weak report could accelerate the bearish trend [5] - Technical analysis indicates that 98.00 is a critical support level for USDX, with potential for further declines if the NFP data falls short of expectations [6] - Gold continues to benefit from a weaker dollar, although recent short-term pullbacks suggest caution among bulls ahead of the NFP report [7] Summary and Future Outlook - The Federal Reserve's internal divisions between inflation hawks and labor market doves mean that monetary policy for 2026 remains uncertain and will be dictated by upcoming economic data [12] - The NFP report is crucial for determining market direction: weak data would support dovish sentiment and suppress the dollar, while strong data would bolster hawkish sentiment and could trigger a dollar rebound [12] - Following the NFP volatility, attention will shift to the upcoming CPI release to assess inflation trends in relation to labor market dynamics [12]

贵金属日报 2025-12-16 贵金属研究 贵金属 钟俊轩 贵金属研究员 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 电话：0755-23375141 邮箱： zhongjunxuan@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 沪金跌 0.18 %，报 975.52 元/克，沪银涨 0.71 %，报 14815.00 元/千克；COMEX 金报 4334.30 美元/盎司，COMEX 银报 64.13 美元/盎司； 美国 10 年期国债收益率报 4.18%，美元指数报 98.29 ； 继周末特朗普更加青睐提名前任理事凯文沃什作为新任联储主席的表态传出后。昨日关于美联 储人选的消息再出变数，CNBC 报道称特朗普核心团队成员对于哈塞特的候选人资格提出反对， 理由是哈塞特与特朗普本人的关系过于密切。而在多位联储主席潜在候选人中，哈塞特最为鸽 派，因此他提名可能性的下降令贵金属价格短线承压。 联储超预期的鸽派表态令白银价格表现强势，但议息会议短期的利多出尽也意味着白银本身的 涨势已进入加速阶段：回顾历史上的行情走势，国际银价往往在宽松货币政策周期中表现强势。 本次议息会议的宽松表态在超预期的同时，也显示了明 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve has led to increased expectations for further monetary easing, driving gold prices to continue their upward trend, with spot gold closing at $4299.39 per ounce, up 0.48% for the day and 2.42% for the week [1]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve did not provide clear forward guidance but indicated a "very low probability of short-term rate hikes," signaling a dovish stance that exceeded market expectations [2]. - The latest dot plot from the Federal Reserve shows a wide dispersion among committee members regarding future rate cuts, indicating ongoing exploration of the easing path [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Data Expectations - The recent surge in gold prices has helped it break free from a two-week consolidation phase, prompting a reevaluation of the Fed's policy trajectory through 2026, as the market anticipates upcoming key economic data [3]. - Next week, the U.S. will release revised non-farm payroll data for October and November, along with retail sales data, which the market expects to be disappointing, supporting the recent rate cut [3]. - The core PCE price data expected next week may not be severe, which could further justify the rate cut, while the European Central Bank is likely to maintain rates and hint at future hikes, and the Bank of Japan is expected to raise rates, potentially leading to increased Japanese bond yields and capital outflows from the dollar [3]. Group 3: Gold Market Analysis - Gold experienced significant volatility on Friday, with a trading range of nearly $100, hitting a low of $4257 and a high of $4353, ultimately closing around the $4300 mark [4]. - For the upcoming week, gold prices are expected to continue trending upward, with key support levels identified at $4290-$4296 and resistance at $4380-$4385 [4].

以下文章来源于财经连环话 ，作者就是轱辘慧 虽然结果是毫无悬念的"降息25个基点" （利率降到了3.50%-3.75%），但在轱辘慧看来，这背后简直就是一场 "年度宫斗大戏"！ 表面上：平平无奇"三连降"，全年KPI完成（共降75个基点）。 实际上：内部吵翻天，但鲍师傅最后还是给咱们发了个"超级流动性大红包"！ 来，跟着慧慧，咱们剥开那些枯燥的金融术语，看看这场大戏到底有多精彩。 01 活久见！会议室里上演"三国杀" 这次最劲爆的瓜，不是降息本身，而是 居然有三个人投了反对票。 家人们，这是自2019年以来头一回啊。美联储内部的裂痕已经藏不住了，简直是"神仙打架"： 财经连环话 . 一图看懂财经万象。 北京时间周四凌晨3点，大洋彼岸的那帮大佬们终于把2025年的最后一场大戏演完了。 激进派（踩油门）： 理事米兰（Milan）拍桌子嫌慢："才降25？我们要保就业！直接降50个基点啊！" 保守派（踩刹车）： 芝加哥的古尔斯比（Goolsbee）和堪萨斯城的施密德（Schmid）死死拉住手刹："停停停！通胀还没完呢，这次别降了！" 鲍威尔（端水大师）： 夹在中间瑟瑟发抖，既要哄这一头，又要劝那一头…… 这种"有人嫌 ...