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有色套利早报-20250813
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-13 03:15
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Report's Core View The report presents cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on August 13, 2025, which helps investors understand the current price relationships and potential arbitrage opportunities in the non - ferrous metals market [1][4][5]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On August 13, 2025, the domestic spot price was 79,160, the LME price was 9,681, and the spot import equilibrium ratio was 8.17 with a profit of 84.82. The March price had a ratio of 8.09 [1]. - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 22,510, the LME price was 2,823, and the spot import equilibrium ratio was 8.66 with a profit of - 1927.11. The March price ratio was 5.99 [1]. - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 20,640, the LME price was 2,600, and the spot import equilibrium ratio was 8.49 with a profit of - 1445.13. The March price ratio was 7.94 [1]. - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 121,600, the LME price was 15,079, and the spot import equilibrium ratio was 8.25 with a profit of - 2046.03 [1]. - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 16,775, the LME price was 1,966, and the spot import equilibrium ratio was 8.86 with a profit of - 633.39. The March price ratio was 11.25 [3]. Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On August 13, 2025, the spreads between the next month, March, April, and May and the spot month were 0, 60, 20, and 10 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 497, 892, 1296, and 1700 [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads were 35, 55, 55, and 35 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 216, 338, 460, and 582 [4]. - **Aluminum**: The spreads were 15, - 15, - 60, and - 80 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 215, 330, 446, and 561 [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads were 80, 90, 105, and 135 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 209, 314, 420, and 525 [4]. - **Nickel**: The spreads were 540, 670, 840, and 1120 respectively [4]. - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread was 1330, and the theoretical spread was 5601 [4]. Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking On August 13, 2025, the ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc in Shanghai (three - continuous) were 3.49, 3.82, 4.67, 0.91, 1.22, and 0.75 respectively, and in London (three - continuous) were 3.46, 3.76, 4.88, 0.92, 1.30, and 0.71 respectively [5].
有色套利早报-20250812
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-12 00:44
Report Summary Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the reports [1][2][3] Core View - The reports present the cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data of non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on August 12, 2025 [1][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On August 12, 2025, the domestic spot price was 79140, LME spot price was 9676, and the spot ratio was 8.12. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.18 with a profit of - 117.15. The domestic three - month price was 79050, LME three - month price was 9759, and the three - month ratio was 8.10 [1] - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 22530, LME spot price was 2836, and the spot ratio was 7.94. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.66 with a profit of - 2036.17. The domestic three - month price was 22610, LME three - month price was 2840, and the three - month ratio was 5.94 [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 20630, LME spot price was 2609, and the spot ratio was 7.91. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.50 with a profit of - 1542.06. The domestic three - month price was 20690, LME three - month price was 2617, and the three - month ratio was 7.89 [1] - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 120900, LME spot price was 15028, and the spot ratio was 8.05. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.26 with a profit of - 1921.73 [1] - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 16725, LME spot price was 1974, and the spot ratio was 8.47. The domestic three - month price was 16885, LME three - month price was 2009, and the three - month ratio was 11.24. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.86 with a profit of - 765.90 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On August 12, 2025, the spreads of the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts relative to the spot month were 560, 590, 570, and 560 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 494, 887, 1288, and 1689 [3] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 90, 110, 115, and 100 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 216, 337, 459, and 580 [3] - **Aluminum**: The spreads were 5, - 5, - 40, and - 80 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 214, 330, 445, and 561 [3] - **Lead**: The spreads were 95, 95, 115, and 160 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 209, 314, 419, and 524 [3] - **Nickel**: The spreads of the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts relative to the spot month were 1180, 1330, 1500, and 1730 [3] - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread was 1110, and the theoretical spread was 5566 [3] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts relative to the spot were - 635 and - 75 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 26 and 546 [3] - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 30 and 60 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 92 and 223 (also mentioned with theoretical spreads of 96 and 221) [3] - **Lead**: The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts relative to the spot were 65 and 160 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 97 and 209 [3] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On August 12, 2025, for cross - variety arbitrage, the ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc in Shanghai (three - continuous contracts) were 3.50, 3.82, 4.68, 0.92, 1.23, and 0.75 respectively, and in London (three - continuous contracts) were 3.45, 3.76, 4.87, 0.92, 1.30, and 0.71 respectively [3]
有色套利早报-20250807
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-07 02:26
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for various non - ferrous metals (copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin) on August 7, 2025. It includes domestic and LME prices, price ratios, spreads, and theoretical spreads, which can be used by investors to analyze potential arbitrage opportunities [1][4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The domestic spot price is 78325, the LME spot price is 9602, with a ratio of 8.19. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.17, and the profit is - 79.58. The domestic three - month price is 78290, the LME three - month price is 9665, with a ratio of 8.10 [1]. - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price is 22330, the LME spot price is 2761, with a ratio of 8.09. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.67, and the profit is - 1602.01. The domestic three - month price is 22370, the LME three - month price is 2771, with a ratio of 6.08 [1]. - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price is 20630, the LME spot price is 2576, with a ratio of 8.01. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.49, and the profit is - 1251.83. The domestic three - month price is 20605, the LME three - month price is 2575, with a ratio of 8.01 [1]. - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price is 120100, the LME spot price is 14903, with a ratio of 8.06. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.25, and the profit is - 1667.45 [1]. - **Lead**: The domestic spot price is 16700, the LME spot price is 1952, with a ratio of 8.57. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.86, and the profit is - 567.51. The domestic three - month price is 16850, the LME three - month price is 1988, with a ratio of 11.25 [3]. Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads for the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts relative to the spot month are - 290, - 280, - 290, and - 320 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 495, 888, 1290, and 1691 [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads for the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts relative to the spot month are 20, 10, 0, and - 35 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 215, 336, 456, and 577 [4]. - **Aluminum**: The spreads for the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts relative to the spot month are 50, 5, - 40, and - 95 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 214, 329, 444, and 559 [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads for the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts relative to the spot month are 140, 135, 165, and 190 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 209, 313, 418, and 522 [4]. - **Nickel**: The spreads for the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts relative to the spot month are 270, 370, 530, and 750 respectively [4]. - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread is 780, and the theoretical spread is 5536 [4]. Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads for the current - month and next - month contracts relative to the spot are 255 and - 35 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 232 and 624 [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads for the current - month and next - month contracts relative to the spot are 30 and 50 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 112 and 242 (also 103 and 234 in another record) [4][5]. - **Lead**: The spreads for the current - month and next - month contracts relative to the spot are 15 and 155 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 108 and 220 [5]. Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - The ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc for Shanghai (three - continuous) are 3.50, 3.80, 4.65, 0.92, 1.22, and 0.75 respectively, and for LME (three - continuous) are 3.47, 3.71, 4.85, 0.94, 1.31, and 0.72 respectively [5].
沪铜日评:国内铜冶炼厂7月检修产能或环减,国内电解铜社会库存量环比减少-20250801
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-08-01 05:12
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The U.S. does not impose tariffs on electrolytic copper, ending cross - market arbitrage. The traditional domestic consumption off - season suppresses downstream demand, and the global total inventory of electrolytic copper tends to rise, so the Shanghai copper price may still have room to fall. It is recommended that investors lightly short the main contract on rallies, and pay attention to certain support and pressure levels for Shanghai copper, London copper, and U.S. copper [3]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - On July 31, 2025, the closing price of the active contract of Shanghai copper futures was 78,040, a decrease of 890 compared to the previous day; the trading volume was 109,011 hands, a decrease of 119,877 hands compared to the previous day; the open interest was 176,193 hands, an increase of 4,504 hands compared to the previous day; the inventory was 19,622 tons, a decrease of 351 tons compared to the previous day; the average price of SMW 1 electrolytic copper was 78,565, a decrease of 720 compared to the previous day [2]. - The Shanghai copper basis was 525, an increase of 170 compared to the previous day. The spot premium or discount in different regions showed different changes, such as - 20 in Guangzhou, - 110 in North China, and 32 in East China [2]. - The closing price of LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) on July 31, 2025 was 9,607, a decrease of 123 compared to the previous day; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 0, a decrease of 138,200 compared to the previous day [2]. - The closing price of the active contract of COMEX copper futures on July 31, 2025 was 4.4305, a decrease of 1.24 compared to the previous day; the total inventory was 257,915, an increase of 4,484 compared to the previous day [2]. News and Events - On July 30, local time, the U.S. White House announced that starting from August 1, it will impose a 20% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products and steel - intensive derivative products, while copper input raw materials and copper scrap are not subject to "Section 232" or equivalent tariffs [2]. - The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged in July. Import tariffs pushed up commodity prices, causing the annual rates of consumer - end inflation CPI and PCE in the U.S. to rise in June. The U.S. economy and employment performance are robust, and the inflation pushed up by tariffs may take a long time to show, reducing the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September and December [2][3]. Production Changes - Teck Resources lowered the expected production of the Quebrada Blanca copper mine in Chile in 2025 in the second quarter; Newmont's Red Chris copper mine in Canada suspended operations due to an accident; Anglo Asian Mining's Deniri copper mine started trial production; Russia's Nornickel lowered its 2025 copper production forecast; several mines in China and other regions had production - affecting incidents [3]. - Some mines have expansion or new - production plans, such as the second - phase 160,000 - ton capacity of the Mirador copper mine in Ecuador under Tongling Nonferrous Metals may be put into production in the second half of 2025; the second - phase expansion project of Julong Copper Mine may be put into production by the end of 2025 [3].
有色套利早报-20250731
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-07-31 11:51
Report Summary 1. Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking (2025/07/31) - **Copper**: Spot domestic price is 79,280, LME price is 9,729, and the ratio is 8.12; for the three - month contract, domestic price is 78,940, LME price is 9,776, and the ratio is 8.10. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.19, with a loss of 736.08, and a profit of 93.60 for spot export [1]. - **Zinc**: Spot domestic price is 22,680, LME price is 2,806, and the ratio is 8.08; for the three - month contract, domestic price is 22,695, LME price is 2,809, and the ratio is 6.01. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.68, with a loss of 1,671.47 [1]. - **Aluminum**: Spot domestic price is 20,670, LME price is 2,609, and the ratio is 7.93; for the three - month contract, domestic price is 20,610, LME price is 2,613, and the ratio is 7.90. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.54, with a loss of 1,596.98 [1]. - **Nickel**: Spot domestic price is 120,950, LME price is 14,997, and the ratio is 8.07. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.27, with a loss of 2,175.84 [1]. - **Lead**: Spot domestic price is 16,725, LME price is 1,979, and the ratio is 8.46; for the three - month contract, domestic price is 16,900, LME price is 2,016, and the ratio is 11.28. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.87, with a loss of 808.38 [3]. 2. Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking (2025/07/31) - **Copper**: The spreads of the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts relative to the spot month are 100, 110, 70, and - 20 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 496, 890, 1293, and 1697 [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads of the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts relative to the spot month are 60, 85, 95, and 70 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 216, 338, 460, and 582 [4]. - **Aluminum**: The spreads of the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts relative to the spot month are - 20, - 35, - 80, and - 120 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 214, 329, 445, and 560 [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads of the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts relative to the spot month are 10, 20, 40, and 40 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 209, 315, 420, and 526 [4]. - **Nickel**: The spreads of the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts relative to the spot month are 100, 230, 440, and 690 respectively [4]. - **Tin**: The spread of the 5 - 1 contract is 530, and the theoretical spread is 5553 [4]. 3. Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking (2025/07/31) - **Copper**: The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts relative to the spot are - 440 and - 340 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 221 and 674 [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts relative to the spot are - 70 and - 10 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 130 and 262 [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts relative to the spot are 155 and 165 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 151 and 263 [5]. 4. Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking (2025/07/31) - **Copper/Zinc, Copper/Aluminum, Copper/Lead, Aluminum/Zinc, Aluminum/Lead, Lead/Zinc**: The ratios for Shanghai (three - continuous contracts) are 3.48, 3.83, 4.67, 0.91, 1.22, and 0.74 respectively; for London (three - continuous contracts) are 3.48, 3.73, 4.87, 0.93, 1.31, and 0.72 respectively [5].
有色套利早报-20250730
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-07-30 04:05
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View The report presents cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on July 30, 2025, to help investors find potential arbitrage opportunities [1][4][5]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Spot price is 79,030 (domestic) and 9,706 (LME), with a ratio of 8.15; March price is 78,860 (domestic) and 9,758 (LME), ratio 8.09. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.17, profit is - 398.80 [1]. - **Zinc**: Spot price is 22,580 (domestic) and 2,804 (LME), ratio 8.05; March price is 22,675 (domestic) and 2,808 (LME), ratio 6.03. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.65, profit is - 1,685.62 [1]. - **Aluminum**: Spot price is 20,620 (domestic) and 2,616 (LME), ratio 7.88; March price is 20,590 (domestic) and 2,619 (LME), ratio 7.86. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.51, profit is - 1,652.64 [1]. - **Nickel**: Spot price is 120,300 (domestic) and 15,004 (LME), ratio 8.02. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.25, profit is - 1,795.71 [1]. - **Lead**: Spot price is 16,750 (domestic) and 1,984 (LME), ratio 8.46; March price is 16,915 (domestic) and 2,016 (LME), ratio 11.22. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.85, profit is - 772.80 [3]. Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the next - month, March, April, May and the spot - month are - 160, - 140, - 180, - 240 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 497, 892, 1296, 1700 [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads are 40, 60, 40, - 10, and the theoretical spreads are 216, 338, 460, 582 [4]. - **Aluminum**: The spreads are - 40, - 55, - 110, - 165, and the theoretical spreads are 214, 329, 445, 560 [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads are 20, 35, 55, 110, and the theoretical spreads are 209, 315, 420, 526 [4]. - **Nickel**: The spreads are 300, 430, 610, 870 [4]. - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread is 1060, theoretical spread is 5526 [4]. Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts to the spot are - 10 and - 170, and the theoretical spreads are 296 and 710 [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads are 35 and 75, and the theoretical spreads are 146 and 278 [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads are 130 and 150, and the theoretical spreads are 151 and 263 [5]. Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - **Domestic (Three - Consecutive Contracts)**: Copper/zinc is 3.48, copper/aluminum is 3.83, copper/lead is 4.66, aluminum/zinc is 0.91, aluminum/lead is 1.22, lead/zinc is 0.75 [5]. - **LME (Three - Consecutive Contracts)**: Copper/zinc is 3.49, copper/aluminum is 3.76, copper/lead is 4.86, aluminum/zinc is 0.93, aluminum/lead is 1.29, lead/zinc is 0.72 [5].
有色套利早报-20250725
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-07-25 00:35
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for various non - ferrous metals (copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, tin) on July 25, 2025 [1][3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On July 25, 2025, the domestic spot price was 79,790, the LME price was 9,897, and the ratio was 8.05; the domestic March price was 79,920, the LME price was 9,947, and the ratio was 8.01. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.14, with a profit of - 630.69, and the profit for spot export was 402.52 [1] - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 22,870, the LME price was 2,875, and the ratio was 7.95; the domestic March price was 23,015, the LME price was 2,876, and the ratio was 5.86. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.62, with a profit of - 1,901.83 [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot and March prices were both 20,730, the LME spot price was 2,648, the March price was 2,646, and the ratio was 7.82. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.48, with a profit of - 1,741.60 [1] - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 122,850, the LME price was 15,403, and the ratio was 7.98. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.22, with a profit of - 2,151.35 [1] - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 16,650, the LME price was 2,011, and the ratio was 8.30; the domestic March price was 16,935, the LME price was 2,036, and the ratio was 11.26. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.81, with a profit of - 1,022.60 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On July 25, 2025, the spreads of the next - month, March, April, and May contracts relative to the spot month were 370, 400, 360, and 270 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 500, 897, 1304, and 1710 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 95, 95, 45, and 0 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 218, 341, 465, and 588 [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads were - 55, - 85, - 155, and - 210 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 215, 331, 447, and 563 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were 80, 125, 145, and 150 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 209, 314, 419, and 524 [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads were 1140, 1300, 1490, and 1720 respectively [4] - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread was 240, and the theoretical spread was 5663 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts relative to the spot were - 240 and 130 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 337 and 832 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 50 and 145 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 180 and 313 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were 160 and 240 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 174 and 285 [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On July 25, 2025, the ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc in Shanghai (triple - continuous) were 3.47, 3.86, 4.72, 0.90, 1.22, and 0.74 respectively; in London (triple - continuous), they were 3.47, 3.73, 4.88, 0.93, 1.31, and 0.71 respectively [5]
有色套利早报-20250723
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-07-23 01:12
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View - The report presents the cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data of non - ferrous metals (copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, tin) on July 23, 2025, including domestic and LME prices, price ratios, spreads, and theoretical spreads [1][4][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Spot price is 79760 (domestic) and 9794 (LME) with a ratio of 8.16; March price is 79770 (domestic) and 9863 (LME) with a ratio of 8.07. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.16 with a profit of 76.62, and spot export profit is - 67.76 [1] - **Zinc**: Spot price is 22800 (domestic) and 2841 (LME) with a ratio of 8.02; March price is 22940 (domestic) and 2846 (LME) with a ratio of 5.92. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.64 with a profit of - 1742.69 [1] - **Aluminum**: Spot price is 20950 (domestic) and 2647 (LME) with a ratio of 7.91; March price is 20835 (domestic) and 2645 (LME) with a ratio of 7.86. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.50 with a profit of - 1559.16 [1] - **Nickel**: Spot price is 121600 (domestic) and 15283 (LME) with a ratio of 7.96. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.24 with a profit of - 2250.36 [1] - **Lead**: Spot price is 16675 (domestic) and 1976 (LME) with a ratio of 8.46; March price is 16965 (domestic) and 2002 (LME) with a ratio of 11.40. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.84 with a profit of - 739.70 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are 40, 70, 30, - 20 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 501, 899, 1307, 1714 respectively [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads of次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are 60, 55, 35, - 15 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 217, 341, 464, 588 respectively [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads of次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are 30, - 35, - 100, - 160 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 215, 332, 448, 564 respectively [4] - **Lead**: The spreads of次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are - 30, 5, 5, 60 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 210, 316, 421, 527 respectively [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads of次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are 1170, 1260, 1500, 1710 respectively [4] - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread is - 370 with a theoretical spread of 5556 [4] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - Ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, lead/zinc are 3.48, 3.83, 4.70, 0.91, 1.23, 0.74 (Shanghai continuous three - month), and 3.47, 3.73, 4.93, 0.93, 1.32, 0.70 (LME continuous three - month) [8] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of the current - month contract - spot and the next - month contract - spot are - 5 and 35 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 397 and 844 respectively [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads of the current - month contract - spot and the next - month contract - spot are 85 and 145 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 155 and 285 respectively [5] - **Lead**: The spreads of the current - month contract - spot and the next - month contract - spot are 285 and 255 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 199 and 311 respectively [5]
有色套利早报-20250722
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-07-22 00:42
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on July 22, 2025 [1][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Spot price in China is 79600, LME price is 9790, and the ratio is 8.03; for three - month contracts, China price is 79770, LME price is 9857, and the ratio is 8.06. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.16 [1] - **Zinc**: Spot price in China is 22820, LME price is 2848, and the ratio is 8.01; for three - month contracts, China price is 22915, LME price is 2850, and the ratio is 5.93. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.64, with a profit of - 1778.34 [1] - **Aluminum**: Spot price in China is 20890, LME price is 2640, and the ratio is 7.91; for three - month contracts, China price is 20785, LME price is 2638, and the ratio is 7.87. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.50, with a profit of - 1547.06 [1] - **Nickel**: Spot price in China is 121350, LME price is 15134, and the ratio is 8.02. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.24, with a profit of - 1872.54 [1] - **Lead**: Spot price in China is 16725, LME price is 1985, and the ratio is 8.47; for three - month contracts, China price is 17015, LME price is 2011, and the ratio is 11.38. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.84, with a profit of - 736.74 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot - month contract are 1360, 1360, 1340, and 1290 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 494, 886, 1287, and 1688 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads are 625, 615, 570, and 530, and the theoretical spreads are 215, 335, 456, and 576 [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads are 275, 220, 140, and 85, and the theoretical spreads are 214, 329, 443, and 558 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads are 175, 195, 225, and 200, and the theoretical spreads are 209, 314, 419, and 524 [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads are 2200, 2310, 2500, and 2720 [4] - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread is - 3300, and the theoretical spread is 5533 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot are - 1100 and 260 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 246 and 885 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads are - 520 and 105, and the theoretical spreads are 187 and 320 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads are 95 and 270, and the theoretical spreads are 176 and 288 [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - The ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc for Shanghai (three - continuous contracts) are 3.48, 3.84, 4.69, 0.91, 1.22, and 0.74 respectively; for LME (three - continuous contracts), they are 3.47, 3.73, 4.89, 0.93, 1.31, and 0.71 [5]
有色套利早报-20250718
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-07-18 00:42
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals (copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, tin) on July 18, 2025 [1][4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On July 18, 2025, the domestic spot price was 78,010, the LME price was 9,538, and the ratio was 8.19. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.17, with a profit of - 219.86. The domestic three - month price was 77,830, the LME price was 9,597, and the ratio was 8.12 [1] - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 22,120, the LME price was 2,693, and the ratio was 8.21. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.68, with a profit of - 1,248.97. The domestic three - month price was 22,085, the LME price was 2,696, and the ratio was 6.24 [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 20,570, the LME price was 2,564, and the ratio was 8.02. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.53, with a profit of - 1,293.96. The domestic three - month price was 20,355, the LME price was 2,567, and the ratio was 7.96 [1] - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 118,550, the LME price was 14,787, and the ratio was 8.02. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.25, with a profit of - 2,413.78 [1] - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 16,625, the LME price was 1,946, and the ratio was 8.58. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.86, with a profit of - 540.93. The domestic three - month price was 16,905, the LME price was 1,974, and the ratio was 11.19 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot - month contract were - 130, - 150, - 190, and - 290 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 492, 882, 1281, and 1680 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 75, 40, 10, and - 35, and the theoretical spreads were 213, 332, 452, and 571 [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads were - 60, - 120, - 185, and - 240, and the theoretical spreads were 213, 328, 442, and 557 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were - 20, 10, 30, and 105, and the theoretical spreads were 209, 315, 420, and 526 [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads were - 580, - 460, - 220, and - 70 [4] - **Tin**: The spread between the 5 - month and 1 - month contracts was 450, and the theoretical spread was 5437 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot were - 20 and - 150, and the theoretical spreads were 465 and 878 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 75 and 0, and the theoretical spreads were 186 and 315 (also 172 and 286 in another record) [4][5] - **Lead**: The spreads were 270 and 250, and the theoretical spreads were 216 and 327 [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On July 18, 2025, the ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc in Shanghai (three - continuous contracts) were 3.52, 3.82, 4.60, 0.92, 1.20, and 0.77 respectively, and in London (three - continuous contracts) were 3.53, 3.75, 4.90, 0.94, 1.31, and 0.72 [5]