Market Overview - U.S. stock markets showed resilience despite a government shutdown and disappointing employment data, with major indexes stabilizing and some turning positive by midday [1][2] - The S&P 500 was virtually unchanged, the Nasdaq Composite remained flat, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 18 points, indicating a quick market adjustment to the shutdown [3] Economic Data - The ADP Employment Report revealed a surprising decline of 32,000 jobs in September, contrasting with expectations of a 45,000 increase, marking the largest drop in private payrolls in two and a half years [5] - The ISM Manufacturing Index indicated weaker-than-expected manufacturing activity, contributing to a challenging economic backdrop [6] Upcoming Economic Reports - The government shutdown is anticipated to delay key economic reports, including weekly jobless claims and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data, adding uncertainty for investors [7] Company News and Stock Movements - Nike's shares surged over 4% after exceeding analysts' expectations for profit and revenue, driven by strong growth in North America [8] - Lithium Americas Corp's stock jumped over 25% following confirmation of a $2.26 billion loan from the U.S. government [8] - Nvidia rallied after CoreWeave announced a $14.2 billion AI cloud deal with Meta Platforms, with Nvidia reportedly surpassing a $4.5 trillion valuation [12] - UiPath's stock rose more than 8% due to partnerships with major tech companies for AI-driven automation [12] - Pfizer led gains in the S&P 500 after reaching an agreement to cut drug prices [12] - Rocket Companies completed a $14.2 billion acquisition of Mr. Cooper Group, uniting major players in the mortgage sector [12] - Corteva's shares declined by 6.6% after announcing a split into two independent companies [12] - Cal-Maine Foods fell by 1.6% after missing quarterly profit and revenue expectations [12] - Reddit Inc's stock dropped 8.2% due to reduced usage of its content in ChatGPT responses [12] - United Natural Foods, Inc. soared 18.5% after reporting fourth-quarter revenues that exceeded estimates [12]

Economic Indicators - U.S. JOLTs job openings rose to 7.227 million in August, exceeding expectations of 7.190 million [1] - U.S. July S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 eased to +1.8% y/y from +2.2% y/y in June, stronger than expectations of +1.7% y/y [1] - U.S. Conference Board's consumer confidence index fell to a 5-month low of 94.2 in September, weaker than expectations of 96.0 [1] - U.S. Chicago PMI unexpectedly fell to 40.6 in September, weaker than expectations of 43.4 [1] Market Movements - Wall Street's major indexes ended in the green, with Pfizer (PFE) climbing over +6% after securing a three-year exemption from tariffs [2] - CoreWeave (CRWV) surged more than +11% following a $14.2 billion AI cloud-computing deal with Meta Platforms [2] - Albemarle (ALB) slumped more than -6% after news of the restart of the CATL mine in China [2] Government Shutdown Impact - U.S. government shutdown is expected to pause some federal services and furlough approximately 750,000 employees, costing $400 million per day in lost compensation [4] - Key economic data releases are at risk during the shutdown, including weekly jobless claims and payroll reports [4] - Market sentiment took a hit with December S&P 500 E-Mini futures trending down -0.56% [5] Federal Reserve Outlook - Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson noted a weakening labor market alongside rising inflation pressures, complicating monetary policy [6] - Rate futures indicate a 94.6% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting in October [7] Upcoming Economic Data - Investors are focused on the U.S. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change data, with forecasts for September at 52K, down from August's 54K [8] - The U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected to be 49.0, while the S&P Global manufacturing PMI is forecasted at 52.0 [9] - U.S. Construction Spending data is anticipated to show a -0.1% m/m change for August, consistent with July [9] - U.S. Crude Oil Inventories are expected to show an increase of 1.5 million [10]

Geopolitical Developments & Market Impact - A 20-point proposal for a Gaza ceasefire, agreed upon by U S President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, awaits Hamas approval, potentially impacting regional stability and oil markets [1][5][38] - Qatar's role as a key mediator between Israel and Hamas is crucial for the ceasefire, requiring a face-saving gesture, such as Israel expressing regret for a past attack [8][9][10] - The Israeli Shekel has strengthened against the USD by approximately 10% this year, reflecting the impact of geopolitical developments on local markets [46] - RBA (澳大利亚储备银行) holds cash rate at 36%, notes uncertainties in global environment and upside risks to inflation [40][41][42][43] Economic & Financial Market Trends - Looming U S government shutdown raises market risk, potentially delaying crucial jobs data release and impacting monetary policy assessment [2][3][23][25][44] - Gold hits record highs, massively outperforming Bitcoin, driven by uncertainty and a pullback in USD, with potential for further gains amid Fed rate cuts [3][4][23][32][33][44] - The market has aggressively priced in 3-4 rate cuts by June 2026, making upcoming jobs market data pivotal for determining monetary policy [27] - Potential tariffs on imports of timber and lumber, particularly impacting Canada, add to market uncertainty [23][39] - MSCI China is logging five-month gains, the longest streak since 2018, driven by better-than-expected PMI data and geopolitical signals [48] Energy Sector - Brent crude oil is slipping down by 08% ahead of the OPEC Plus meeting, where increased supply is expected [4] - The oil market is bearish due to well-supplied conditions, with focus on Iran snapback and Russia-Ukraine conflict, leading to investment in gold over oil [52][53] - Afentra is cautious about oil price volatility, focusing on a strong balance sheet and strategic acquisitions [64][65][66] - Nigeria's government intervenes to resolve a clash between the petroleum and natural gas association and oil labor group, potentially impacting crude production of 650 thousand barrels a day [76][77][78]

Susan Collins, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, speaks during the National Association of Business Economics (NABE) economic policy conference in Washington, DC, US, on Thursday, March 30, 2023.Boston Federal Reserve President Susan Collins on Tuesday expressed support for the recent interest rate cut, but showed some skepticism on the extent of future moves as she sees continued threats from inflation.Speaking in New York, the central bank policymaker noted risks to both higher inflation an ...

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of India's upcoming interest rate decision is expected to be challenging, with factors such as low inflation and economic growth pressures influencing the potential for rate cuts [1][5]. Economic Outlook - A majority of economists (24 out of 39) predict that the repurchase rate will remain at 5.5%, while 15 anticipate a quarter-point reduction due to deteriorating growth prospects [2]. - The monetary policy committee, led by Governor Sanjay Malhotra, faces competing objectives, with inflation expected to ease further and growth impacted by high US tariffs [3][6]. - Inflation is currently near the lower end of the 2%–6% target band and is projected to decrease further following recent tax cuts [3][7]. Inflation and Growth Projections - The RBI had previously predicted inflation at 3.1% for the current fiscal year, with an economist estimating average inflation around 2.7% [7]. - The tax cuts are anticipated to mitigate the negative effects of tariffs, keeping growth close to the government's forecast range of 6.3%–6.8%, with the RBI projecting 6.5% growth for the fiscal year [8]. Market Reactions - Indian bonds have remained in a narrow trading range, with analysts suggesting that only strong dovish signals from the RBI could trigger a market rebound [9]. - Traders are cautious ahead of the policy meeting, having been surprised by the RBI's recent decisions, including a neutral policy stance and a rate hold despite easing inflation [10]. - The yield on the benchmark 10-year bond has increased by over 30 basis points since the June meeting [10]. Currency Considerations - Traders will be attentive to the governor's comments regarding the currency amidst trade tensions, with some analysts suggesting that the RBI may be allowing the rupee's weakness as a strategy to enhance the competitiveness of Indian exporters [12].

The yield on the 10-year benchmark note was at 6.5483% as of 10:00 a.m. IST on Tuesday, after ending at 6.5547% in the previous session. "We do not think there should be any selling pressure today, and bonds will remain steady, with closing for the benchmark eyed around 6.53%-6.54%," a trader with a state-run bank said. A majority of respondents in a Reuters poll expect the "We believe there are enough reasons for the RBI to depart from its recent guidance, deliver further 25 bps easing in October, and ad ...

FRBSF Economic Letter 2025-22 | September 29, 2025Moving steadily through change takes intention, commitment to one’s goals, collecting evidence, and deciding. And most of all, it takes a commitment to be willing to repeat the process of anchoring, assessing, and deciding each time a new change comes along. The following is adapted from remarks presented by the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco at the Spencer Fox Eccles Convocation at the David Eccles School of Business, University of U ...

Market Overview - The U.S. government shutdown is a significant concern for investors, with a deadline for an agreement approaching [3] - Past government shutdowns have had limited impact on markets, but current high stock valuations may lead to different outcomes this time [3] Economic Data Impact - A potential shutdown could delay key economic data releases, including the U.S. employment report, which may complicate Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions [4] Stock Market Performance - The S&P 500 has increased over 7% in the third quarter, marking its best performance for this period since 2020, while the Nasdaq Composite has risen nearly 11% [5] Sector Movements - The energy sector has declined, following a drop in oil prices, while cannabis stocks have surged due to comments from President Trump regarding potential health benefits of cannabidiol [2] Currency and Bond Markets - The U.S. dollar has weakened against major currencies, including the euro and yen, and the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has decreased to around 4.14% as investors assess shutdown risks [2]

ZURICH (Reuters) -The Swiss National Bank, the Swiss Finance Ministry and the U.S. Treasury Department have reconfirmed that they do not target exchange rates for competitive purposes. In a joint statement, Switzerland and the U.S. both said they did not use exchange rates to win an unfair advantage or prevent adjustments to their balance of payments. A joint statement "confirms that foreign exchange market interventions are an important monetary policy instrument for the SNB in ensuring appropriate mo ...

BRASILIA (Reuters) -Outstanding bank lending in Brazil continued to lose momentum in August, central bank data showed on Monday, as high interest rates helped cool activity in Latin America's largest economy. Credit growth over the past 12 months slowed to 10.1% in August, down from 10.8% in July. The central bank projected last Thursday that annual loan growth would ease further, ending the year at 8.8%. While a steep slowdown from the 11.5% expansion seen in 2024, the forecast marked a slight upward ...