Prices are down. Prices on electricity and everything else will fall dramatically. >> When the president says he's going to bring down prices, have prices ever fallen in history without a recession happening.>> The whole discussion around inflation and prices like individual prices like gas prices are are something that we see go up and down, right. For a lot of goods and services, particularly services, we don't tend to see big price declines outside of recessions. You know, think about what's what's behin ...

The AI bubble is already in the process of bursting; however, this is a very early stage ofAnalyst’s Disclosure:I/we have a beneficial short position in the shares of SPX either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no g ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the phenomenon of "unretirements," where individuals who previously retired are re-entering the workforce, indicating shifts in the job market dynamics [1] Group 1: Job Market Trends - Unretirements have increased significantly, with a notable rise of 1.5 million individuals aged 55 and older returning to work since the onset of the pandemic [1] - The trend suggests that many retirees are seeking additional income or are unable to sustain their retirement lifestyle solely on savings and Social Security [1] Group 2: Economic Implications - The increase in unretirements may alleviate some labor shortages in various sectors, particularly those that require experienced workers [1] - This trend could also impact wage growth, as more experienced workers re-entering the job market may lead to increased competition for jobs [1] Group 3: Demographic Insights - The article highlights that unretirements are more prevalent among women, who account for a significant portion of this demographic shift [1] - Factors such as health care costs and inflation are driving older workers back into the labor force, as they seek to bolster their financial security [1]

Group 1: Market Performance and Expectations - The FTSE 100 index has surged to its highest level in eight months, driven by falling inflation and expectations of an interest rate cut by the Bank of England [2][7][49] - Analysts predict that the FTSE 100 could reach the 10,000 index level by the end of the year if a "Santa rally" occurs [1] - The index climbed 1.6% in a single day, marking its best performance since April, as falling inflation is seen as beneficial for consumer spending and corporate costs [7][49] Group 2: Inflation and Economic Indicators - UK inflation dropped to 3.2% in November from 3.6% in October, which is the lowest level since March and significantly below analyst expectations of 3.5% [5][71] - The decline in inflation was primarily driven by falling food prices, particularly for cakes, biscuits, and breakfast cereals, as well as a decrease in tobacco prices [3][66][74] - Economists expect the Bank of England to cut interest rates from 4% to 3.75% in response to the inflation drop, which is anticipated to support economic growth [4][61][67] Group 3: Currency and Bond Market Reactions - The British pound fell by 0.7% against the dollar to $1.333 following the inflation report, reflecting increased market expectations for a rate cut [5][39][64] - UK government bond yields have decreased sharply, with the yield on two-year gilts falling to 3.68%, indicating a strong market reaction to the inflation data [10][11][56] - The yield on 10-year UK gilts also dropped, suggesting that investors are pricing in a more accommodative monetary policy environment [11][56] Group 4: Sector-Specific Impacts - Bank stocks experienced a surge as the drop in inflation is expected to improve lending conditions [6][49] - The FTSE 100 benefits from a weaker sterling, as many of its companies generate earnings overseas, which is further supported by the anticipated interest rate cuts [5][51] - Retailers have reported that extensive discounting during Black Friday contributed to the fall in inflation, indicating a competitive retail environment [24][25]

Economic Outlook - Increasing discussions about a potential recession in 2026 as the economy shows signs of slowing after a prolonged expansion [1] - Current U.S. economy described as stable but uneven, with household spending focusing more on essentials rather than discretionary items [2] - Businesses facing margin pressure due to higher costs and selective consumer behavior, raising the risk of slower growth heading into 2026 [2] Consumer-Staple Sector - In uncertain or low-growth periods, investors tend to shift from cyclical sectors to consumer-staple stocks, which have steady demand and predictable cash flows [3] - Consumer-staple companies sell essential products that consumers continue to purchase regardless of economic conditions, benefiting from strong brands and effective cost management [4] Investment Opportunities - Three consumer-staple stocks identified as strong investment opportunities: Estee Lauder (EL), Turning Point Brands (TPB), and Monster Beverage (MNST) [5] - All three companies have gained over 35% in the past year and hold a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy), indicating favorable earnings trends and strong fundamentals [5] Estee Lauder (EL) - Estee Lauder shows early recovery signs with a focus on innovation and efficiency, supported by its Beauty Reimagined strategy [9][10] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for EL's EPS suggests growth of 41.7% and nearly 36% for the current and next fiscal years, respectively [11] Turning Point Brands (TPB) - TPB has experienced significant growth of 87.3% over the past year, combining stable cash flows from legacy brands with growth from modern oral nicotine products [12] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for TPB's EPS indicates growth of 50.6% and 7.1% for the current and next fiscal years, respectively [14] Monster Beverage (MNST) - MNST has gained 46.2% in the past year, benefiting from a growing global energy drink market and strong brand loyalty [15] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MNST's EPS suggests growth of 22.2% and 13.2% for the current and next fiscal years, respectively [17] Conclusion - If economic growth slows in 2026, consumer-staple stocks like EL, TPB, and MNST may provide relative stability due to their essential products and strong brand positioning [18]

Money, power, politics. Tonight, the November jobs report may include a warning sign about the state of the economy. More jobs were added in November than expected.That was largely driven by the healthc care sector, but unemployment rose to 4.6%. Now, that is the highest level since September 2021 when the economy was still coming out of the COVID pandemic. Joining me now to discuss is Justin Wolfers, a professor of economics and public policy at the University of Michigan and Jean Sperling, former director ...

Labor Market & Economic Growth - The labor market shows weakness with the highest unemployment rate and lowest year-over-year wage growth in four years [2] - Despite weak job growth, the economy is still moving forward, avoiding a recession, but is described as a "sickly tortoise" [3] - The economy is expected to experience weak fourth-quarter GDP growth, potentially around 1% [9] - The economy may grow at 3% in the first half of next year and 1% in the second half, resulting in approximately 15% growth for the year if a recession is avoided [8] - Labor supply is limited, with a shrinking native-born working-age population and near-zero net immigration, making it difficult for the economy to grow beyond 15% of trend rates [7][8] Consumer Spending & Fiscal Stimulus - Consumer spending is expected to increase in the first half of next year due to income tax refunds, with the average refund projected to be $4,000, up from $3,200 this year [4] - The boost in consumer spending from tax refunds is considered temporary ("sugar, not protein") and unsustainable in the second half of the year [6] Investment & Sector Performance - While there's a significant data center boom, other investment spending, such as heavy truck sales and home building, is weak [10][11] - Low oil prices are hindering drilling activity in the energy sector [11]

Stop showing your feet for free.We are in a recession, do better. ...

Mortgage Rates Outlook - Mortgage rates are expected to decline slightly over the next year, influenced primarily by the 10-year U.S. Treasury market [1][2] - The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was reported at 6.19% as of December 4, down from 6.69% a year ago, but significant drops in rates are not anticipated for 2026 [3][2] - Predictions indicate that mortgage rates could average 6.3% in 2026, easing affordability pressures slightly while home prices are expected to rise by 2.2% [8] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve cut short-term interest rates by a quarter percentage point, bringing the target range to 3.5% to 3.75% [6] - The Fed's decision to cut rates was not unanimous, with some members advocating for a more significant cut or no change at all [5] - Economists project that the Fed may implement two to three additional rate cuts in 2026, depending on job market conditions and inflation [16][19] Consumer Impact - The average rate for home equity lines of credit (HELOC) is currently 7.81%, down from 8.55% a year ago, indicating a trend of lower borrowing costs for consumers [4] - Credit card rates have also seen a decline, with the national average for new customers dropping from 20.12% to 19.83% following recent Fed rate cuts [23][24] - A K-shaped economy is emerging, where wealth disparities are increasing, benefiting higher-income households while lower-income households face financial struggles [25][26] Economic Conditions - Job gains have slowed, and the unemployment rate has slightly increased, contributing to a cautious economic outlook [6][7] - Inflation remains above the Fed's target of 2%, which could limit the extent of future rate cuts [13] - Consumer spending growth has been weak, with a reported increase of only 1.3% annualized in 2025, compared to a typical growth rate closer to 2% [27]

Speaking of new jobs, Kevin Hasset versus Kevin Worsh. Do you have an opinion. >> I either I do not make personnel decisions.You know, I think I think I think Kevin is I think Kevin is a fantastic name. Uh, [laughter] you know, it's it's a great >> I'll ask another way. So, so Kevin Hassets, you know, there's been some he's been dogged lately by by being too close to Trump. There's some, you know, there reports that there's been some concern uh voiced to the president around the fact that I don't know, mayb ...